And Now, For One Who's Doing It Right (Sprint)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-05-02 12:24
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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And Now, For One Who's Doing It Right (Sprint)
 

If you recall I've been all over both Sprint and RIMM on their execution.

RIMM got roasted this morning.  They're still chattering about "hiring a marketing chief" when what they should do is exploit one of their core differences -- opening the Playbook and thus BB10 right now to GAPPS -- thereby enabling the immediate running of all Android apps!

They haven't despite this being an obvious step they could take that would bring instant market differentiation to their BB10 and Playbook devices over all the others in the marketplace and I bet they won't exploit that difference.  If they don't IMHO their stock is headed for the toilet, down 5% today thus far (and possibly another 5% tomorrow and on until zero) if they don't cut the crap and start executing on the things they can do that make them unique instead of trying to be "another X", where "X" is Google, Apple, Microsoft, etc.

Sprint, on the other hand, got this as a recommendation from me in July of last year:

There are things Sprint could do that might be extraordinarily disruptive to other carriers.  Presuming they have the capacity to deal with it, they could allow the activation of any of their post-paid devices on Virgin, provided you pay full price for them (or acquire them used on the secondary market.)  This would be an absolute destroyer of the postpaid model among the "Big Three To Be Two" (Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile); the question is whether it can be done profitably. It has to be - they can't make losses per-customer with this sort of change, but if they can do it and make money, oh boy.

The differences here in cost-of-service between Virgin at their $55/all-in-unlimited plan and AT&T's or Verizon's is not small.  The biggest problem is that they may cannibalize their own postpaid subscriber base, and there are a lot of people who think prepaid is a "crap business."

I'm not in that camp - my view is that any business that makes profits is a good one and one that makes losses is a bad line of business irrespective of all other considerations.  Therefore, the only question I have is whether such a change would make profits or losses.  The potential to literally steal millions of post-paid customers from the other carriers is not to be ignored, although one must balance that against the risk of self-cannibalization or worse, making a move that the other carriers might be able to emulate.  Only Sprint knows their internal cost structure and whether this can be done at a profit - but if it can be, it's a "disruptive" move that could rocket the company - and the stock.

And what did Sprint recently announce?

They're going to start selling their WiMax phones -- 4g phones -- re-branded to run on Virgin and Boost.

That's pretty-much what I recommended they do -- break the glass and make high-end devices available on their prepaid service. 

They just did it.

It did take their stock going from the $4s to the $2.50 area to wake them up but wake up they did and their CEO just bought 50,000 shares a few days ago - with cash.

There are a lot of reasons that executives sell stock but only one reason they buy -- they think it's undervalued and is going to go a lot higher.  Since insiders can't trade actively in their own stock it means they believe it's a long term buy too.

Now to be fair these are very different businesses, but the point remains -- both were thought of as leaders and both got themselves in quite a bit of trouble.

But Sprint's CEO has pulled his head out of his ass and found one of the places that, for little if not no money the company can capitalize on something their competitors refuse to do in an effort to steal market share, and in doing so drive revenues and profits higher.  They are gaining prepaid customers and with this move they'll gain many, many more.

RIMM's CEO, on the other hand, has yet to see daylight with his eyes as he's buried up to his neck in his own back door.

Disclosure: Yes, I have and do trade both names.

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User Info And Now, For One Who's Doing It Right (Sprint) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Eli
Posts: 7264
Incept: 2007-09-10
Green
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Smart move, 4g 55 dollars a month everything. That will get them plenty of costumers.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell

Jstanley01
Posts: 8282
Incept: 2008-07-30
Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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Palm was to smartphones what Xerox was to PCs; RIMM is to smart phones what IBM was to PCs.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Ckaminski
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Incept: 2011-04-08
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Actually, I would argue that Palm got into the smartphone market a bit too late. By the time the Handspring sets started rocketing to popularity (Treo 600 timeframe, IIRC), the BB and WiMo with Pocket Outlook had already cemented the minds of the market.
Jdaun
Posts: 138
Incept: 2007-07-30
Silver
Minneapolis
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This explains why Sprint sent a notification to customers last week, stating that if you upgrade to a new phone that is not part of their current offerings, you would no longer be grandfathered in under their old pricing plan.

They didn't want people upgrading to 4g phones while staying on the old $25/mo plans.
Jackl
Posts: 2253
Incept: 2008-01-17

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Kinda anecdotal, but Boost's website has cleaned up alot over the last 6 months. Their phones have been getting more advanced as well. Seems like their revenue is beginning to show.
Jstanley01
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Incept: 2008-07-30
Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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Ckaminski: Fusing the Palm Pilot PDA -- when it ruled the PDA market -- with a phone was a no-brainer for a good 3 years at least. By the time it happened they were already behind the 8-ball; Blackberry was already "it" for an all-in-one productivity tool. Making Palm a non-player, really, just like Xerox in the PC realm when the watchword for hardware became "IBM compatible" (temporarily, harf).

One that could-a, should-a, if only they would-a...

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Raggededge
Posts: 35
Incept: 2010-02-26
Green
Springfield, TN
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How is this going to work? Isn't Sprint switching from WiMax to LTE?
Magus
Posts: 2003
Incept: 2008-05-04
Gold
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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Genesis
Posts: 131489
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Ragged: They have a massively-built-out WiMax network NOW, and will run it to extinction over the next three to five years. They also have stock of the phones and the investment in them. This will move the 4g traffic to LTE on their postpaid side, give them 4g on the prepaid, and everything still falls back to CDMA when not in a 4g service area.

It's a SMART MOVE on their part.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Magus
Posts: 2003
Incept: 2008-05-04
Gold
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"Ragged: They have a massively-built-out WiMax network NOW, and will run it to extinction over the next three to five years. They also have stock of the phones and the investment in them. This will move the 4g traffic to LTE on their postpaid side, give them 4g on the prepaid, and everything still falls back to CDMA when not in a 4g service area.

It's a SMART MOVE on their part."

Yep--it's a win all around. It's basically a sunk cost and people who are on their prepaid can upgrade their phone with way faster speeds than they currently have which opens up broadband on their current network for post-paid customers.

100% agree with you about RIMM as someone who has a small long position with them.

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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

-~~Ludwig V
Chuckmak
Posts: 316
Incept: 2011-01-05
Gold
City of Bridges, PA
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Well, looks like I'm staying with Boost! Horray shrinkage plan! My plan goes to $50 this month, and shrinks $5 a month every 6 months up to $15.
Novid
Posts: 94
Incept: 2010-06-25

Philadelphia
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looks like i will go to sprint/boost/virgin by the end of the year.
Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4212
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
It's contained to sub-prime!
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WiMAX phones on sale. Shocker. Maybe they can give some good deals on iden ones to.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Jackl
Posts: 2253
Incept: 2008-01-17

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Quote:
Well, looks like I'm staying with Boost! Horray shrinkage plan! My plan goes to $50 this month, and shrinks $5 a month every 6 months up to $15.


I'm down to 40 dollars for unlimited. Refuse to pay T-Mobile/Others 100+ a month for basic service.

In other news, ever since I canceled T-Mobile has been sending me monthly bills informing me that my credit of .05 dollars is due. They've been doing this since early 2011.
Azusgm
Posts: 2623
Incept: 2010-12-02
Green
East Texas
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Sprint just boosted their power on the 250-ft tower on my mother's land. I can look up and down the run of towers and see the same upgrade has been done (new black insulated cables). There are now three electric power meters to the facility. 4g is scheduled to come to those towers this fall. Service is sure to improve.
Rrman
Posts: 6227
Incept: 2007-10-27
Green A True American Patriot!
Baton Rouge, LA
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do ATT Iphones work on any of the Sprint networks?
Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4212
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
It's contained to sub-prime!
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No.

----------
"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Wearedoomed
Posts: 3611
Incept: 2009-01-14
Silver
slightly red state
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Nope, totally different technology. The global move to LTE should take care of that problem... eventually.

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Lies, all of it.
Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4212
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
It's contained to sub-prime!
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AT&T and vzw LTE phones are not interoperable right now either.

----------
"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 949
Incept: 2007-08-08

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I'm still wondering if Boost is going to let me keep my current rates and upgrade to a phone that can actually send/receive files to/from a computer without going through the internet.
Ckaminski
Posts: 1670
Incept: 2011-04-08
Green
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If its an android phone you can use a number of Bluetooth tools to transfer files from phone to phone or phone to computer. I'm somewhat dismayed Bump isn't work on computers...
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 949
Incept: 2007-08-08

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If it's an Android phone they'll probably jack my rates.

I'm looking at the Sanyo Innuendo, which supposedly has both a mini-SD slot and an emulate-USB-drive setting in its menu, but otherwise has the same network and data characteristics as my current phone (Sanyo Mirro). It's going for $60 at Walmart now. I'm hoping this one will slip in under the radar, and that Boost hasn't disabled these functions somehow.

I'm planning to visit a dedicated Boost Mobile store soon as I get the time to dick around with this.
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