Bloomberg's Editorial On MBS Failures
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-30 07:41
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Bloomberg's Editorial On MBS Failures
 

It was rather amusing to read this over the weekend from Bloomberg's editorial department:

How would all the mortgages for these apartments and houses be funded? Lenders simply followed the people. For decades, urban investors had bought stakes in farm mortgage bonds. With the agricultural economy in such straits and the urban economy booming, groups such as the Farm Mortgage Bankers Association of America (which later dropped the "Farm" from its name) reoriented their sights on the cities, looking for ways to lend to these new urban dwellers, bringing their experience in turning mortgages into bonds.

....

Banks loved the new invention because it allowed them to skirt regulations. Although the Federal Reserve regulated the proportion of savings that could be lent as mortgages (half of savings deposits) there were no restrictions on mortgages funded by bonds. These bonds, however, had a maximum length of five years, forcing the mortgage debt to be refunded, at minimum, every five years. But since the balloon mortgage, so popular in the 1920s, was refinanced every three to five years, there shouldn't have been a problem as long as more investors could be found.

Did you detect the elements of a Ponzi Scheme in there?  You should have.

In point of fact the reason this collapsed is the same as the reason it collapsed this time around -- the "values" lent against were nothing but hot air and when the next sucker failed to appear to buy at a higher price the scheme collapsed.  Since the borrower was never able to perform to maturity on the original terms it was mathematically impossible to avoid the collapse; we were simply arguing over when, not whether, the collapse would occur.

The same thing happend this time around.  And just like the in 1930s the government this time bowed to political pressure and refused to force those who made bad loans -- knowing full well that they could not be performed on their original terms, and that the collateral was not worth the amount lent -- to eat their own cooking and collapse.

Having pemitted regulations to be "skirted" (a convenient word for counterfeiting) there were in fact only two options -- lock everyone up who engaged in these frauds, starting with the CEOs of the financial institutions involved, clawing back every nickel they had in the process, or attempt to transfer the debt to the taxpayer in some fashion.

The government did the worst of all of it.  FDR not only allowed the depositors of the institutions involved to get hosed he also didn't lock the banksters up and he transferred the losses to the citizens -- even those who had not been a part of the scams -- through currency devaluation.

In short he did basically what we've done this time and the result was the destruction of our economy for more than a decade, ending only when we entered WWII.

There is no answer to these dilemmas once the government turns a blind eye or worse, becomes explicitly involved in public frauds of this sort.  The choices are only to prosecute and force those who committed the evil acts to eat them or to force everyone in the economy to eat them and protect the politically powerful who committed the crimes.

The simple fact of the matter is that at the root of this crisis, as it was in the 1930s, is counterfeiting by the lending institutions involved.  The lending of money against nothing but hot air depresses the value of the currency which drives the price of assets and the real income of earners in opposite directions.  This is inherently a fraud upon the public in each and every instance, committed with license and therefore given "legality" by the government in question as that which is counterfeited is the nation's currency. 

There is no solution that can be found to this problem until it is faced head-on and stopped. 

Simply put so long as banksters are allowed to counterfeit the currency we are arguing over whether we'd like to be financially raped a bit, some or deeply and long rather than whether we're going to suffer this ignoble act at all. 

It becomes even worse when, as has happened this time around, the counterfeiting becomes part and parcel of how government funds itself.  Government borrowing is inherent vice -- a perhaps-necessary vice in a handful of circumstances (e.g. declared war) but nonetheless it is inherent vice, as government never borrows against value, it borrows against the promise that you will get up and go work tomorrow to pay taxes -- the very definition of "hot air" unless enforced at gunpoint (at which point we call it what it is -- slavery.)

There is nothing wrong with borrowing against actual market value of an asset -- that is, liquifying that asset for the purpose of commerce.  That sort of lending is essential to modern commercial flows; without letters of credit, for example, international trade would be nearly impossible at any rational level of risk. 

But as soon as you allow someone to lend money unbacked by anything -- that is, not backed by the actual liquidation value of the asset nor actual capital put forward by an investor or equity holder then you have committed a public fraud.  You have allowed the lending institution to counterfeit the currency in question by increasing its quantity in the market simply on whim.

This is exactly identical, in mathematical and economic terms, to the lending institution running off stacks of $100 bills on the office copier.  That act, when performed, is universally recognized as a serious felony worthy of prosecution and incarceration.

It is no different in economic and mathematical impact when a bank creates credit money out of thin air, backed by nothing other than a promise to get out of bed and go to work tomorrow, irrespective of whether that credit money is created by The Fed or a commercial bank.

We will never solve our economic problems until we face the mathematical reality of what has been done and thus why these acts must, in each and every instance, fail and lead to economic ruin.

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Flappingeagle
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Karl, I'm having some trouble understanding how you would do loans. Let's use a home loan as an example. If I wanted to buy a house would I be required to put say 20% down? Would the bank then be able to use the value of the house to secure the other 80% or, would the bank have to have the 80% in capital to make the loan?

Thanks;

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
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Let's say you wish to buy a house.

Let's further say that the market value of the house (that is, the immediate liquidation price, should it be required, is $80,000.)

You could buy for up to $100,000 putting $20,000 down. The bank can write an $80,000 mortgage, since if you fail to pay it can immediately resell the house for $80,000.

However, this leaves the bank with no margin -- if the house value declines then it must immediately come up with the additional capital right now. This of course is undesirable, so a rational bank would build in some cushion -- say, they probably would only lend you $80,000 against $100,000 in good collateral value, forcing you to put the 20% down against real value.

There's no risk to the depositors in this arrangement since your failure to pay cannot lead to loss. In addition there's no inflationary impact since your payment over time extinguishes the credit created. All you've done is shifted the ownership of the asset of time from them to you as you pay off the loan. This presumption is why most economists IGNORE debt loads in their economic computations -- they assume this is the basic lending model.

So long as they're right then their modeling is ok.

Now let's assume the bank wishes to lend you $100,000 on a credit card. There is no asset behind that. Therefore, the bank must have either shareholder equity purchase money (in hard dollars) or bondholder capital (in hard dollars) behind that loan -- dollar for dollar. So long as it does there is no risk again to depositors -- the equity investors or bondholders can lose their money, but depositors cannot. And again, there is no inflation since you are not counterfeiting; the bank is intermediating a loan between their capital (whether obtained from shareholders or bond investors) and you as a consumer, not creating more credit money than exists in earned capital.

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Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tbessi
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Excellent Point -
" -- the very definition of "hot air" unless enforced at gunpoint (at which point we call it what it is -- slavery.)"

Although with our current education system I'd call our current debt system a massive slave system irregardless of the gun inserted up above.
Flappingeagle
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Ok, beating on this some more until I have it down cold.

Quote:
You could buy for up to $100,000 putting $20,000 down. The bank can write an $80,000 mortgage, since if you fail to pay it can immediately resell the house for $80,000.

However, this leaves the bank with no margin -- if the house value declines then it must immediately come up with the additional capital right now. This of course is undesirable, so a rational bank would build in some cushion -- say, they probably would only lend you $80,000 against $100,000 in good collateral value, forcing you to put the 20% down against real value.


Time for the disection.
Quote:
You could buy for up to $100,000 putting $20,000 down. The bank can write an $80,000 mortgage, since if you fail to pay it can immediately resell the house for $80,000.
By the term "immediately resell" are you talking expected sale value in say 30 to 90 days or, are you talking more of a 'fire sale' value of 30 days or less? That really makes a big difference because you are talking more wholesale versus retail values.

Next part.
Quote:
However, this leaves the bank with no margin -- if the house value declines then it must immediately come up with the additional capital right now. This of course is undesirable, so a rational bank would build in some cushion -- say, they probably would only lend you $80,000 against $100,000 in good collateral value, forcing you to put the 20% down against real value.


I think you switched values here inadvertantly but I want to make sure. Let's assume that you are talking about the same house that I bought for $100,000; $20,000 is my downpayment and $80,000 is the value of the house's liquidation value (wholesale price? see above). Since that gives the bank no cushion, would your plan be more like I put down $20,000 and the bank loans me $70,000 meaning that I can at most pay $90,000? That way the bank only has $70,000 exposure on a house that they can theoretically sell for $80,000. Do I have it?

I know I am getting nit-picky but sometimes you have to be to really understand someone's idea.

Thanks again;

Flap



----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
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The value of an asset in the market is the immediate resale value when one is talking about the need to liquidate, since such a need never comes in an "orderly" fashion.

That's the maximum that can be collateralized. Everything lent must be support by actual capital -- that can either be immediate liquidation value of the asset (wholesale value) or actual capital from investors.

That's the premise of "One Dollar of Capital" and if enforced it STOPS the counterfeiting cold.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Uwe
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Karl's scheme is a vast improvement over what we have now, but there's still some risk if market prices decline. I suppose mortgages could have a "Margin call" clause in them; but the problem with this is that houses aren't fungible like shares of a stock or units of a commodity; and it's rather difficult to determine the true market value of any particular house.

-Uwe-

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Genesis
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On the contrary Uwe.

If prices decline then the bank must come up with additional capital to cover the shortfall. If it can't it must sell the note to someone with actual capital. If this forces them out of business so what? The depositors lose nothing, since they are never at risk.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Uwe
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But how do we know what any particular house is worth on any given day? IMO, the only way to establish that is to actually sell it, at absolute auction.

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Genesis
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Well this is true in the individual case but banks don't have one or two loans, they have thousands. And we have broad indices.

There is already a 6% capital cushion allegedly required. That's more than enough to cover the day-to-day error bands.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Dbigkahunna
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If the new money being created was printed on a copier it would in some small way increase wealth as paper and ink would have to be purchased to print the stuff on. The way it is now, it is all digital and NOTHING is created.
At some point one would think the productive class would say to heck with it and only produce enough to satisfy their own needs and not produce excess. When that time comes, the beast will starve.
What keeps the game going is the productive class still has faith and belief in the system. If by the end of the year the non productive class has secured its power and thinks they have the productive class by the balls here, maybe the productive class will wake up.
What has been seen in Greece and what is coming to Spain this summer will be only a prelude. The non productive class believes it is their right to be supported by the productive, and will react.
I do not look forward to the results when the productive class looses it's faith in the system and witholds support.

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Flappingeagle
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OK, I think I have it now. Back to the example.

There is a house that has a 'liquidation' (meaning sold in a hurry in something like a week in actuality given that it takes a few days to do paperwork) value of $80,000.

Now, suppose I want to buy it. A "sane" bank will tell me "we'll loan you $70,000 toward the purchase of the house and you have to come up with whatever else is needed to buy the house." If I have $10,000 I can then offer $80,000, if I have $20,000 I can then offer $90,000,...

Then, if I can't make my payments the bank can liquidate my house for $80,000 keep what it is owed, and give me the remainder.

Such a policy would really keep a lid on the price of houses as it would prevent banks from lending in excess of the value of the house based on some appreciation model which says the value of the house will go up over time.

Thanks again;

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Genesis
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Correct.

Incidentally it doesn't necessarily prevent home price rises, IF the general wealth of the people improves. But it does prevent speculative bubble creation where the "wealth" is a fraud.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Themortgagedude
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Quote:




In short he did basically what we've done this time and the result was the destruction of our economy for more than a decade, ending only when we entered WWII


I'd suggest that it was after WW2 before the depression ended. The only thing that jump started the war economy was massive deficit spending to support the war effort. Then when the war was over our economy boomed as we had a huge percentage of the world's remaining manufaacturing base. Without the war and the resulting demolition of the rest of the world's manufacturing base how long would we have remained in a depression?

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Genesis
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Maybe forever.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Grashopa
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Quote:

Let's further say that the market value of the house (that is, the immediate liquidation price, should it be required, is $80,000.)


This doesn't actually fix anything since the banks WERE lending to the market price - its just that anyone could get a loan so there was a lot of demand hence higher prices. You must still limit leverage. Every loan is an increase in the money supply, the more loans the higher prices go.

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Genesis
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Nope Grass.

If I can't pay cash (immediate liquidation price) then this is capped off immediately.

Banks were lending at 100% LTVs which they would NEVER do without the ability to print that credit out of nothing.

There's nothing wrong with liquifying assets and as long as you hold the party doing it to account in the event of value declines market discipline is more than sufficient to stop this from happening.

The problem comes in when you tell the market that there will be no penalty for getting it wrong. That started with Continental Illinois when bondholders were protected and is why we had this mess happen.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Londoncat
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Thermo - I was having a conversation with a "financial planner" friend of mine this past week who was trying to convince me to "get back in the market" and talking about how profitable things were for investors in the US after WWII and the end of the Great Depression.

I referred to your (and Karl's) point about the fact that, during WWII, much of Europe and Asia's manufacturing facilities were either destoryed, or the producers of their raw materials were destroyed, leave the US to dominate over the next quarter century. I asked him if he knew if we were planning on destroying China, Russia, India, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Germany, Switzerland, etc. any time soon, because if we were, I might consider getting "back in the game" for team USA.

I could tell that he never really considered "WHY" the US was dominate after WWII. It was kind of funny really.
Grashopa
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Quote:

There's nothing wrong with liquifying assets and as long as you hold the party doing it to account in the event of value declines market discipline is more than sufficient to stop this from happening.

The problem comes in when you tell the market that there will be no penalty for getting it wrong. That started with Continental Illinois when bondholders were protected and is why we had this mess happen.


I'd love for the government to crash and burn so bad that we are able to restore market discipline to the financial sector. But I don't see it.

I think it will be easier to get a stable money supply through leverage limits and anti fat cat banker breakups. That is probably all we see if we are lucky to get even that.


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Marvinmartian
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Karl wrote..
The problem comes in when you tell the market that there will be no penalty for getting it wrong. That started with Continental Illinois when bondholders were protected and is why we had this mess happen.


This is an important event, but its not the first of its kind. Reinhart & Rogoff et al "This time is different" say sovereigns have been doing this for a long time.

Just how is Continental Illinois different?

(Just to be sure, I'm devastated as a taxpayer at assuming the debts of the Maiden Lane mortgages sold to the Fed. What IS DIFFERENT with Continental Illinois?)

Mindrayge
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I don't know if this answers your question but up until Continental Illinois the way it worked when the FDIC resolved a bank (NOT the bank holding company, this is an important distinction) was that the subsidiary that held the deposit accounts was seized - literally yanked out of the corporate family tree - and then the FDIC valued the assets and if that was less than the deposit liabilities the FDIC would then go back into the bank holding company and any and all subsidiaries and seize any assets - including those pledged as collateral in other dealings - to cover the depositors. The only time the FDIC dipped into the insurance fund is if, after liquidating the entire asset collection (literally furniture and office supplies if necessary) of the entire corporate structure that the bank was a part of there wasn't enough money to cover the depositors. The bank holding company and any surviving subsidiaries almost certainly went to Chapter 7.

With Continental Illinois the FDIC DID NOT seize all the assets necessary to cover the depositors but instead they left sufficient assets to cover paying back ALL of the bondholders IN FULL. That shortfall to cover the depositors was much larger than it should have been.

Today, when you see the near weekly bank seizures and read that it cost the FDIC a $xx million hit to the insurance fund that cost is most if not all of the shortfall to actually cover the bondholders rather than the depositors.

With a regular corporation bondholders don't have that protection in bankruptcy court. But when it comes to a bank holding company those bondholders are guaranteed their outstanding principal plus the current interest payment.

If you were ever wondering why the FDIC (or others like the OCC etc.) wait so long to seize and resolve those dying banks the reason is that they don't do a damn thing until the bank is going to default on a bond payment. It is never because they can't clear a check overnight or they don't have enough cash in the teller drawers. This is because banks can effectively do check kiting to infinity and beyond so long as it stays within the bank. However, the cash that has to go out to the bondholders had better be there on the due date - they can't kite that check.

That is what is different. Lending money to a bank via a bond became a 100% risk-free investment. While a deposit, which is also a loan to the bank, remained riskier if you deposited (lent) more than the insurance limit to that bank.

Reason: fixed last paragraph
Phxkevin
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Why did the FDIC change the process and pay bond holders starting with Continental Illinois?

I realize that this is an old post...

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Ben
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Quote:
Karl's scheme is a vast improvement


"Karl's Scheme" is how banking was done in RRE until 1985.

That's what the 'old school boring bankers' did.

You take second in line lien holder priority behind the tax man, you lend out 75% to 80% of the known value of the property, you make the mortgagee put up 20 or 25%, and you keep the note in your safe.

If property values drop or the resident bails, that's a risk you take on for your interest rate.

If values stay constant, then you have equity>note amount, you f/c, the Sheriff evicts the non-payer, and you have [Interest + House - .8{House lent}].

Traditionally this was 'a sure thing' at 5% to 12% per year.

Until June, 2006.

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