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| GDP: Chickens Roosting; Don't Walk Under Them in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Mrbill
Posts: 7904
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
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Isn't 2.2% real gdp already adjusted for the 2.4% price increase?
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4206
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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LOL! You'd think so Mr.Bill but you'd be wrong!
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Mrbill
Posts: 7904
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
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Well how about that. What is "real" about it then? serious question.
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Randy123
Posts: 5859
Incept: 2008-09-24
Earth
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You can't print oil.
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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.
New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
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Eli
Posts: 7245
Incept: 2007-09-10
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Benspanky just said things are about to get much much better. This GDP print is a minor setback, Ben will just borrow our way into solvency.
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Vitchilo
Posts: 4975
Incept: 2011-04-27
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And wanna bet these numbers are bunk and will be revised lower??
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We hang the petty thieves and promote the great ones to office.
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Delapaz
Posts: 61
Incept: 2009-04-29
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FedGov needs ZIRP to continue or the budget blows up. Bernanke needs sucky GDP numbers to justify ZIRP/continued printing FRN's.
FedGov/FRN are bracketed. GDP numbers too high, they must let rates float. GDP numbers too low, and the peasants get restless, government loses credibility.
Prediction: GDP and other major government-sourced numbers will continue to be this kind of lukewarm bucket of warm spit stuff.
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Anti
Posts: 4372
Incept: 2007-10-09
Online
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MrBill - I think the "real" DOES mean adjusted for inflation. Karl is saying that it is not adjusted for population growth as well so negative per person, if I understand correctly. If not someone explain please.
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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
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Genesis
Posts: 131436
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Correct, but in addition the so-called "adjustment" is facially bogus.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Trades50
Posts: 4237
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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Jim Grant's question from his Fed presentation and reference to the 1921 downturn about starvation goes to show you how clueless the Fed really is about fixing the problems.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Docj
Posts: 1010
Incept: 2009-09-10
Duck & Cover
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If ZH's calculations are correct, we added $2.52 in debt for ever $1 of GDP "growth" over the last quarter.
Yep, I'm sure that's sustainable forever.
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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
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Genesis
Posts: 131436
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yep.
It also shows where the solution is to be found if anyone would care to look. It's literally "in your face."
The largest single annualized increase EVER in industrial production came out of that time period and it was precisely because the government balanced the budget and the Fed pulled excess liquidity. The bankrupt firms all went under immediately and the ones that replaced them not only got their capital equipment at firesale prices (cutting the cost of production) but with the non-productive crap cleared out of the economy the result was a ROARING recovery.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Ee4fire
Posts: 94
Incept: 2011-03-24
Washington, DC
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3.5 years and 5 Trillion in borrowed money later and this is what we have to show for it! It took Bush 8 years to do what Obama has done in less the 4.
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Original Data Value
Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Years: 2000 to 2012
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0
2012 63.7 63.9 63.8
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“(Politicians), 536 commoditized temple monkeys pawing through the ruins of America in search of bribes. (The District of Corruption) works like a vending machine. You put coins in the slot, select your law, and the desired legislation slides out." Fred Reed. Some editting by me.
Reason: Increased time period.
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Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
Banned
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Face it, this is a hollow sham of an economy and had been trending that direction for at least 20 years.
bush/clinton(liar)/Bush/obamao , neither understand or care(past getting elected) about any of you.
I suggest you adopt the same towards them.
This "report" such as it is has two more revisions to go until it becomes official. Big deal. Anyone with two brain cells left knows the "report" is a sham and closer to a fairy tale than reality on the ground.
As fed/local gvt start getting hit and cutting back, people will see that most all the growth was in services to same.
That's Spain or some other socialist country.
Good luck with that.
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Kochevnik
Posts: 569
Incept: 2007-07-30
Dallas TX
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Actually - if the report of that Mexican illegal immigration has stopped or reversed, then there IS no population growth in the USA. The birth rate for white women in the USA is much the same as many parts of Europe - i.e. well under replacement (1.6 if I remember correctly). Then you have the falling rates because of the depression we are in : http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/11/pf/reces....With blacks and hispanics added in the USA rate is pretty much just UNDER replacement levels (2.06) http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/cens....There are still legal immigrants raising the population slightly, but I would guess as the illegal exodus accelerates, and the economy worsens that will vanish, then reverse. And I'll second what JoeJohns said above - this whole report is completely bogus - any time you ADD govt spending (based primarily on debt) as a factor in 'growth' it's all just a sham.
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There are decades where nothing happens - and there are weeks where decades happen.
-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
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Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Region formerly known as the United States
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I've been hearing my entire life about how US fertility rates are near/barely over replacement ... yet, population has increased from 160M to well over 300M.
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Geschrei
Posts: 490
Incept: 2009-02-23
Online
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Widgeon wrote..I've been hearing my entire life about how US fertility rates are near/barely over replacement ... yet, population has increased from 160M to well over 300M. Both are correct Widge - so long as you are discussing the fertiilty rate of "natural-born" US citizens. Virtually all of our population increase over the past 30+ years has come from immigration, legal or otherwise*. Had we not changed our long-standing restrictive policy with the Hart-Celler Act in 1965, our population would be roughly 250 million now. (* Note: when I refer to immigration-related population growth I am counting not just the immigrants themselves, but their offspring born on US soil, who for obvious reasons would not be part of the US population had their parents not been here in the first place.) Try to imagine the effect on any current hot-button political issue, whether from the left (pollution, global climate change, income inequality), right (crime, multiculturalism, individual liberty), or universal (scarcity/higher cost of resources due to higher demand, traffic, unemployment) if the US population was ~20% smaller than it is now. Now imagine the effect on any or all of the above when we add another 100,000,000 by mid-decade, as predicated on our current policies. Again, almost entirely due to immigration.
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“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.”
Lord Acton (1834 - 1902)
Reason: Added clarification
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Magus
Posts: 2000
Incept: 2008-05-04
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I don't think there is that much population growth going on right no and the GDP already reflects a (debatable) GDP deflator, but certainly not a very good report.
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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
-~~Ludwig V
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Flappingeagle
Posts: 1246
Incept: 2011-04-14
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Quote:It took Bush 8 years to do what Obama has done in less the 4. Be careful man, the Dems will use that fact to get Obama re-elected. I can see the slogan now: Barack Obama, twice as good as George Bush! Yes, the politicians will use  on a troublesome fact if you are not careful. Flap
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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
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Zacmilo
Posts: 96
Incept: 2009-07-14
australia
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Could it be said that the market is up because it thinks this report makes QE3 a certainty,given that this is an election year.I am waiting for the next slump to go long in some stocks, my timeline for this is in the next three and a half years but if interest rates rise by then forget about it.
Reason: added sentence
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4206
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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And based on history, you'd have to think that's correct. Works until it doesn't .
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1061
Incept: 2009-08-05
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Zacmilo
Posts: 96
Incept: 2009-07-14
australia
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My motto is,when in doubt,don't.
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Jstanley01
Posts: 8260
Incept: 2008-07-30
San Antonio, Texas
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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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