More Crooners: "Housing Bottom Declared"
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-25 12:31
by Karl Denninger
in Housing
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More Crooners: "Housing Bottom Declared"
 

This is truly funny....

The U.S. housing market is showing more signs of stabilization as price declines ease and home demand improves, spurring several economists to call a bottom to the worst real estate collapse since the 1930s.

“The crash is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Home sales -- both new and existing -- and housing starts are now off the bottom.”

Uh huh.

So household leverage has returned to sustainable values, right?  Oh wait -- mortgage debt is down 7.5% but values are down to.......

Income growth has returned?  Oh wait....

Hmmm....

So exactly what would provide for the ability of housing to bottom and move higher, since you have to have actual income to support buying things (including houses.)

Yeah.

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User Info More Crooners: "Housing Bottom Declared" in forum [Market-Ticker]
Truthseeker
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You said it better than I did...smiley

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Trades50
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Quote:
“The crash is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said


Didn't Japanese home prices drop over 80% from it's bubble peak? The depression house prices dropped 80% from the peak?

Someone needs to remind Zandi of his comment if he's wrong. Zandi reminds me of Jeremy Siegel.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson

Newcub14
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Housing is no where near bottom - as Gen shows the pretty charts above. Un/underemployment and/or falling/stagnant wages mean housing is definitely NOT going up.

Historic low interest rates (sub 4% fixed for a 30!!!) and they still can't manufacture demand.

I continue to use my buddy as a proxy - 41months without a mortgage payment (stopped paying January 2009) and still living in his place.

Surely 1 does not make a sample - but as I see it there are years of shadow inventory (and nonperforming loans) out there.
Tchaser58
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NormanOK
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I love these yearly bottom calls.
Randy123
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Adler been pounding the table on this. Seems to believe in unicorns.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/201....

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Vitchilo
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They will still be calling it the bottom in 2020.

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We hang the petty thieves and promote the great ones to office.
Trades50
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Quote:
I continue to use my buddy as a proxy - 41months without a mortgage payment (stopped paying January 2009) and still living in his place.


Your buddy made out big! The way property taxes are over here their like mortgage payments now. They just keep raising the property taxes to make up for county shortfalls.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Grumpy_bear
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Wire & Staff Reports – Oct 27, 2006

“The housing market correction is in full swing but it probably has another year to go before it bottoms out,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

Marketwatch - March 26, 2007

"Zandi sees a bottom for sales in spring as sellers become more motivated and start cutting prices."

MTG Foundation – April 28, 2007

“From the housing cycle’s peak in 2005 to its bottom, which likely will come this summer, home prices of new homes will have declined about 10 percent, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com. By next spring, builders should be enjoying a recovery, but for now, “the housing correction is in full swing,” he said.”

U.S. News – June 10, 2007

“it’s probably going to take until next summer before things finally bottom out,” Zandi says.”

Builder 2007 – Oct 25, 2007

“On the positive side, Moody’s Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi strongly believes that the bottom in new-home sales is hitting now, the fourth quarter of 2007.

Bloomberg – December 7, 2007

“Zandi estimates new and existing home sales will bottom at an annualized rate of 5.25 million units in early 2008 from a peak of 8.5 million homes in mid-2005.”

Bloomberg – Feb 9, 2008

“Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight,” chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement today. “Presuming we see strong action by policymakers to help support the economy and the housing market, prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.”

PBS NBR – April 24, 2008

“Policy prescriptions, like lower interest rates, the fiscal stimulus checks and foreclosure prevention plans should help the housing market find its footing. Still, economist Mark Zandi says it will be next spring before it reaches bottom.”

AP – May 27, 2008

“This is going to be another difficult spring,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “I think we are at the beginning of the end of the housing downturn, but it is going to be a long and painful end.”"

Reuters – June 26, 2008

“Zandi said home prices, based on the S&P/Case-Shiller data, have fallen about 15 percent and he is expecting them to drop another 10 percent before reaching a trough in the spring of 2009.”

CNN Money – Sept 18, 2008

“Several panelists, including Economy.com’s chief economist Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) economist Charlie Himmelberg, S&P managing director David Blitzer and S&P senior economist Beth Ann Bovino all agreed that home prices would stabilize sometime during the summer of 2009. “The bottom of the housing market is coming into view,”

CNN – Feb 21, 2009

WILLIS: Wow. So, the bottom coming fourth quarter here? ZANDI: Yeah, with a little bit of luck. If everything comes into place, and the policy steps, are able to get mortgage rates down, get more credit out there, and the stimulus plan helps shore up the job market I think Q4 ’09 would be a good baseline forecast, yes.“

CNN Money – April 2, 2009

“Nationwide, home prices will bottom out at the end of this year, according to the forecasters at Moody’s Economy.com. Median prices will probably fall another 10% on top of the 27% they’ve plummeted since their 2006 peak.”

CNN – April 25, 2009

“WILLIS: You know what’s interesting though, you know, because all we care about is seems like are housing prices in this country. I spoke with Mark Zandi this week who follows this, frankly, maybe one of the best databases, Zandi says we are at the bottom in the housing Market, so that is at least some good news, here.”

AP – May 20, 2009

“”I think we have probably reached the low point for this housing crash, but I don’t expect us to come roaring back,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “I think it will take another year for a recovery in housing to get going.”"

NPR – Jul 23, 2009

“the housing market is stabilizing,” said Moody’s economist Mark Zandi. “I’m expecting that by this time next year the market will have hit bottom”

New York Times – Feb 19, 2010

“Mr. Zandi of Economy.com said he expected the nation’s housing prices to fall another 8 percent during 2010 and bottom out by the end of the year“

Marketwire – May 13, 2010

“Zandi also forecasts improving demand for housing, but with foreclosures rising later in 2010 before easing in 2011. He said home prices may weaken this year. “The housing crash is over — nearly. We are now near the bottom,” he said.

NPR - December 27,2010

Despite all these problems, Zandi thinks housing is finally approaching a turning point. He expects the market to bottom out in 2011.

"It's been a five-year road south, and it's been a complete cratering of the market," he says. "But I think 2011 marks the end of that crash."

ECONOMIX - May 11, 2011

I do expect house prices to stabilize in 2012, but rents will continue to rise strongly.

Moody's Analytics - September 22, 2011

HOUSING HITS BOTTOM PDF http://www.americanhousingconference.com....

Pulled out bottom calls from http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/zan....
and adding some as i find em LOL

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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.

Mrbill
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A similar post to the above can be sourced here:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/zan....
Lunatic_fringe
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All the houses I watch on Zillow are all setting new lows right now.
Truthseeker
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Zandi is, at least, consistent. And WRONG!

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Jubber
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Jeremy Siegel I believe was on CNBC earlier if I am not mistaken, DOW 15000, possibly 17000 next year.

yep here he is

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46998860

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Goldmanssack
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Housing crash also wasn't going to happen...

http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2007/0....

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"But like every one of the superstates that preceded it, it has one iron rule: logic is an enemy and truth is a menace" - The Obsolete Man, Twilight Zone
Spigot
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Not that any of these asshats have a vested interest in trying to provide good numbers for Obama's re-election campaign, huh? Naw, never would happen. O has been very good for Wall St. 4x better than W.

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Drip, drip, drip...
Grumpy_bear
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Mark Zandi is to housing what Abbey Joseph Cohen is to the stock market. Believe them at your peril.

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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.
Genesis
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Or Ben Bernanke on "Subprime"

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Nelstomlinson
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It's worth remembering that Zandi called the housing bubble well before it crashed. My employer was retaining Moody's Economy.com back then, and we were getting a steady drumbeat from Zandi about the housing bubble being unsustainable. As I recall (might be mis-remembering this part), he was saying that the consumer was tapped out.

It just goes to show that past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

Edited to add: I remember arguing this with Moody people at the time, with me saying yes, it's a bubble, but it's not ready to pop.

Here's a quote from 2005: http://ecmweb.com/mag/electric_housing_b....
From the article:
``Mark Zandi, chief economist, Economy.com, West Chester, Pa., has also voiced concerns about housing bubbles for several years. He agreed with Greenspan's comments that without the “exotic adjustable-rate financing” now available, many people could not afford homes in these markets.''

Mrbill
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Please find a quote Nelstomlinson.
Ktrosper
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lmao!

And what becomes of the millions of fraudclosure homes that are sitting empty and unoccupied now that the fraudclusure settlement has been reached?

They are just gonna sit there on their shadow inventory? Marked at money-good?

I live across the street from one of those... been empty for over 1 year now!!! Dark, empty... No for sale sign.

At some point that crap has got to flood the market.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
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Lenguado
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Zandi only has to be correct ONCE, and he will be trumpeted (mostly by himself) as "The Prognosticator of Prognosticators" for being correct that one time, when (if ?) housing actually does start to turn around...

All previous WRONG predictions will be ignored.

smiley

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
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Joejohns
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The REAL problem these Zandi asshats don't seem to get or want to admit is this:

Tons of people bought with the idiotic idea(sold to them by the zandi-type scum) that housing was their investment for the good life.

These people are STUCK big time as even if they OWN the home they need to SELL it or rent it for unreal money to make their investment pan out.

Sorry suckers, as anyone with a brain knew you were at high risk of getting screwed.

Digitlman
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Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
T2
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Let's not forget that housing prices are extremely interest rate sensitive since most poeple don't buy a house, they buy a mortgage, and more specifically a payment. The only thing keeping housing from falling even further now is 30 year conforming loans in the 3% ranges. Double those to the historical norm over 6+% and see what happens to prices, especially if incomes aren't going up.

We won't see a bottom in housing until rates revert back to their historical mean, and who knows how long that'll be.

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Musicandnature
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I am looking for a new old property. To echo earlier posts, my realtor said she has a friend who has not paid mortg for 3 years. They went shopping, realtor spend $48, other lady spent 270. This realtor is a hard worker, was in it 20 yrs before the greedspam bubble. She can't believe how prevelant this is.

And I too see lovely vacant homes banks not selling. One is an English Tudor style in elite section of town. Must be awesome inside.

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
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