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| Apple Preview (AAPL) in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Themortgagedude
Posts: 8841
Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Balls as big as church bells. You gotta have balls as big as church bells. Who knows how they'll jigger the numbers - I'd like to say you have the laws of mathematics on your side but I'm not sure they apply right now.
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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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I'd add a word of caution to getting too short as RIM was able to cover US shortfalls with sales into new markets and carriers for a few quarters before the decline really got exposed. My guess would be that Apple expanded iphones into enough other markets and that initial spike in sales when they launch will offset the saturation in the US market for this reporting period.
I don’t see any compelling reason for folks to upgrade from an iphone 3 to a 4 or 4s nor do I see a reason to upgrade from an ipad 1 to a 2 or 3. I often ask this question to folks I run into in my travels and it seems to be the same story. I do think the iphone 5 upgrade cycle will be larger though because Apple has yet to release an LTE iphone and many of the 3’s are getting pretty old and folks can upgrade in their contract for a lower price.
Can apple bridge a couple of down US qtr’s until they get to the iphone 5? I’m guessing YES and would not be short yet but there will come a time for that. And while I’ve stated on TF I like the Samsung GS2 I don’t see a compelling reason for apple upgrades to move to Samsung so I expect most apple users will upgrade to another apple product over the next year.
Just my take.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
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If the rumors are true that the i5 is being designed as much thinner while at the same time being LTE enabled the next problem is going to be battery life.
The more bits you clock over a given quantum of time the more power it takes. Period. Efficiency only gets you so far and lithium technology on the batteries is mature. This is a nasty balancing act that everyone is dealing with (power budget) and there are no easy ways out of the box.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Mrbill
Posts: 7840
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
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Both the LTE benefits and the carrier subsidy are going to get squeezed in those next few quarters while people wait for iPhone5. Carriers are already reducing the benefit and data limits for LTE users on other phones are going to come into play.
This isn't just negative for iPhone, but all new phones. I've got little reason to upgrade to LTE for web browsing (my phone browser rendering is the bottleneck) and video is just fine on 3G+.
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Frat
Posts: 1934
Incept: 2009-07-15
NKY
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I love my iPhone. I'm not an Apple fanboy, hell I'm not even an Apple "fan" for the most part. Their **** just plain WORKS, and I like that, but I absolutely ABHORE proprietary bull****. Market saturation has indeed been hit KD - you're dead on the money. Last fall when the 4s came out, I was ready to get a new phone. I weighed the options, and I could get an 8gb 4s or a 32gb 4 for the same price. There was no hesitation; the 4s was NOT that big of an upgrade to justify that ****. Since Siri can't physically BLOW me, there's no reason I should or would spend the extra money for a lesser device storage-wise.
A lot of people are content with the slightly "lesser" technology of the 4. Apple has hit the wall, a lot of people are content with what they have, and there's no reason to keep upgrading for high prices and small upgrades.
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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
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Jotapay
Posts: 16721
Incept: 2008-08-26
Austin, Tx
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Quote:Their **** just plain WORKS The reason it works is because it's incredibly simplified and dumbed down overall. The inherent limitations eventually drove me nuts as I constantly just wanted to do more with the iPhone, so I sold it. I was able to sell it for almost as much as I paid for it though. |
Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yeah it's the same problem with laptop and desktop machines, basically.....
I just stuck a hex-core processor in my desktop machine. But the machine itself was a DX50SO motherboard (Intel) and a couple of years old -- LGA1366 socket. I did the processor upgrade as it was twice as fast as what I had in there before and has the AES instructions where the older one did not.
That's $500 to double the processing speed -- but if I didn't do a lot of video transcoding and such there would have been no reason to do it at all.
We're to the point where further hardware upgrades are of marginal utility -- we hit that on desktops a while back, then on laptops, now on phones. The Samsung GII I have is more than capable enough to do damn near anything -- what new feature set would entice me to upgrade? Not data speed -- I get ~20Mbps (!!) now. How much faster can you PERCEIVE on a handset with LTE over HSPA+? NOT!
Will I eventually get forced there? Yes, when this handset BREAKS.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Ckaminski
Posts: 1569
Incept: 2011-04-08
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+1 there. The biggest thing for me lately has been more memory. I virtualize a lot of my work, so the more memory the better. 16GB in my MBP, 16GB in my Mac Mini. 32GB in my home server running ESXi.
Hell, you can get 32GB of ram in an Asus G7x series laptop nowadays. We've hit the wall until single-core processing speeds go up again. At this rate you'll have hex-core desktop power in your hand in 6 years (with a horrible battery life, to be sure). :-)
EDIT: There is no indication that we'll ever see single-core processing make the sort of gains they did from 1990-2004.
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Adrenaline_junky
Posts: 1869
Incept: 2007-09-14
Chicago
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Complete speculation here, but I think the sales volume will match (if not exceed) expectations due to worldwide demand, however I'm dubious of the profit margin per phone being as high. Those Europeans aren't quite as easy to sucker into massively higher phone plans as Americans.
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"If Goldman Sachs is doing God's work, they must be referring to the cruel God of the Old Testament who brought forth plagues, floods, and pestilence." - Me
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Ramthebulls
Posts: 10843
Incept: 2007-09-24
Queens, NY
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China sales are supposed to save the quarter right? That is the chatter I have been hearing. Not sure if that is realistic or not though.
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Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give.
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Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I've got 12GB of RAM in the desktop and I don't hit the wall on it. I buy RAM when I start to run into paging; it's pointless to do so until that happens, and when it does it's obvious.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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A whole 12MB Gen? LOL
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3533
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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All I can say when all the AAPL nonsense comes out is remember DELL. These phones are going to do just so much, then they are going to be commodities. A lot of consumers are going to get phone poor and quit fooling with them. Or they will look for a cheaper solution, which is what I read from Karl. I want to throw my phone into the creek, not only because it is a piece of crap, but because it seems to interrupt me at the most inopportune time. One of the great inventions is also one of the great pains in the ass.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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Is Moore's Law no longer applicable and should no longer be called a "Law"?
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Mayorquimby
Posts: 13907
Incept: 2008-09-18
The Archaic Past
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Quote:A whole 12MB Gen? LOL I remember quite clearly when 1 MB ram was going to cost you thousands. I miss the 80's computer era. Amazing time to be a computer geek.
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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey
Gold is theft.
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Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
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That would be GB, not MB ;-)
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Ckaminski
Posts: 1569
Incept: 2011-04-08
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Moore's Law applies to transistor count/density, not performance, and it's been holding roughly steady all along, though the cracks are beginning to show. 22nm process is common now, and 18nm is going to be in a few years. After that, you're talking trace widths literally a few atoms wide (10-15). That's going to be hard to break through.
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Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
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Ckaminski wrote..After that, you're talking trace widths literally a few atoms wide (10-15). That's going to be hard to break through. We know that single atom transistors are possible because they've been built in labs, so given Intel's track record I expect them to be able to build CPUs at that scale eventually. What happens after that should be interesting. |
Splashdown
Posts: 556
Incept: 2010-04-05
Central Illinois
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I would expect some degree of softening with the iPhone 4s sales given that the previous quarter was fueled by holiday sales and a new version of the phone.
My interest is in the new iPad sales and if that was enough to offset iPhone coming down of it's current cycle peak continuing into Octobers new release.
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Djloche
Posts: 3269
Incept: 2008-07-07
In the Mountains
Online
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Quote:Net Profit Increases 94% Year-over-Year
CUPERTINO, California—April 24, 2012—Apple ® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2012 second quarter ended March 31, 2012. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $39.2 billion and quarterly net profit of $11.6 billion, or $12.30 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $24.7 billion and net profit of $6.0 billion, or $6.40 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 47.4 percent compared to 41.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 64 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
The Company sold 35.1 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 88 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 11.8 million iPads during the quarter, a 151 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4 million Macs during the quarter, a 7 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 7.7 million iPods, a 15 percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter.
“We’re thrilled with sales of over 35 million iPhones and almost 12 million iPads in the March quarter,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “The new iPad is off to a great start, and across the year you’re going to see a lot more of the kind of innovation that only Apple can deliver.”
“Our record March quarter results drove $14 billion in cash flow from operations,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter, we expect revenue of about $34 billion and diluted earnings per share of about $8.68.” 7.673M ipods 35.064M iphones 11.798M ipads
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"If we wish to be free, we must fight! I repeat it, sir, we must fight! An appeal to arms and to the God of Hosts is all that is left us! Gentlemen may cry, "Peace! Peace!" -- but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle?"
Reason: fixed the decimal place
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4180
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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Big beat. Higher AH. See what it does once everyone parses the details.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Genesis
Posts: 130663
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I ain't buying the iPhone number as clean; gonna pick through this but the numbers don't add.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Musicandnature
Posts: 1947
Incept: 2007-12-05
NJ
Online
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With T and V info as Karl has noted, the q we are in presently may be the bad one.
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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
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Tchoup
Posts: 2789
Incept: 2008-02-01
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Up 6%!
Remarkable.
Conference call should be interesting.
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"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong" - voltaire
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