Sheila Bair: Here's A Big Cup Of STFU
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-18 07:49
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Sheila Bair: Here's A Big Cup Of STFU
 

I apologize for the late report on this (five days is a long time) but I had to get my retching under control lest I wind up buying multiple keyboards.

Are you concerned about growing income inequality in America? Are you resentful of all that wealth concentrated in the 1 percent? I’ve got the perfect solution, a modest proposal that involves just a small adjustment in the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy. Best of all, it will mean that none of us have to work for a living anymore.

For several years now, the Fed has been making money available to the financial sector at near-zero interest rates. Big banks and hedge funds, among others, have taken this cheap money and invested it in securities with high yields. This type of profit-making, called the “carry trade,” has been enormously profitable for them.

So why not let everyone participate?

Under my plan, each American household could borrow $10 million from the Fed at zero interest. The more conservative among us can take that money and buy 10-year Treasury bonds. At the current 2 percent annual interest rate, we can pocket a nice $200,000 a year to live on. The more adventuresome can buy 10-year Greek debt at 21 percent, for an annual income of $2.1 million. Or if Greece is a little too risky for you, go with Portugal, at about 12 percent, or $1.2 million dollars a year. (No sense in getting greedy.)

If you detect sarcasm then your mental acuity is somewhat above that of a field mouse. 

That would mean I should be applauding this woman, who used to be the head of the FDIC, right?

Wrong.

See, there's this law called "Prompt Corrective Action", or more-formally 12 USC Section 1831o.

That law, passed after the S&L scandal, requires banking regulators (including the FDIC) to monitor bank asset quality and capitalization and act long before they become insolvent.

It was passed because during the S&L crisis and in the time leading up to it regulators wantonly and willingly ignored -- in some cases intentionally participating -- in balance sheet frauds that wound up costing the taxpayer a lot of money.

But PCA was wildly ignored both in the years leading up to 2007/08 and all the way through it.

Not only that, but there was at least one instance where a bank regulator allowed a financial institution to backdate deposits so as to appear more solvent than it really was.  (IndyMac)

This would be shocking but what elevates that little incident to a level of outright disgust and corruption is that the very same individual who participated in that scam on the government regulatory side did it previously during the S&L crisis and not only was he not prosecuted he kept his job!

While some defenders will say "but that was OTS!" the fact remains that 12 USC 1831o says:

Each appropriate Federal banking agency and the Corporation {ed: "corporation" = FDIC} (acting in the Corporation’s capacity as the insurer of depository institutions under this chapter) shall carry out the purpose of this section by taking prompt corrective action to resolve the problems of insured depository institutions.

So the FDIC does not and cannot get a pass on this one, as it had both concurrent jurisdiction and responsibility.

Sheila appears in this article to be lambasting liar loans and pick-a-payment mortgages (both of which featured prominently in intentionally misrepresenting the alleged "value" of houses throughout the United States) and since it was done for "profit" by these very banks and other financial institutions this certainly appears to fit the black-letter definition of fraud.  We're not talking small-ball fraud either -- literal trillions of dollars were stolen.

The problem Sheila has is that she wasn't lambasting those liar loans and pick-a-payment mortgages during the latter part of the housing bubble nor was she willing to step in and close those big institutions right up front when the market turned or apply regulatory sanction in her first years as FDIC chair, despite the clear requirements of the law.

For instance in 2007, back on April 18th just after The Market Ticker began publication, I wrote the following:

In March of 2006, Washington Mutual recorded net income of $985 million dollars.  4Q06 they booked $1,058 mln.  This last quarter, they booked $784mln.

But in those three quarters they booked  $194mln, $333mln and $361 million, respectively, in PayOption ARM "Capitalized Interest."  This was booked and recognized as EARNINGS.

Now here's the problem:  In 1Q 06, 194 million out of $985 is 19.7%.  In December, it was 31%.  But this last quarter, it was FORTY SIX PERCENT, more than a DOUBLE over the year ago levels.

And what's worse, not one dime of that "income" can be spent!  It is entirely phantom.

This is the same sort of crap that sunk Lucent and Enron - booking "income" that is not in fact spendable, as it has an impairment associated with it (the LTV is INCREASED by this negative amortization) AND it is not CASH!

There is a legitimate argument to be made for booking this as a net increase in the bank's assets, offset with a loss reserve due to the increase in LTV on the property (this is the most likely part of the principle to be unrecoverable in the event of a default.)  In effect this is a capital asset that is drawn down in value over some period of time - up to 30 years for most mortgages.

But now the bank has elected to pay 55 cents of dividend, yet the single largest contributor to their "86 cents of net income" this last quarter was in fact capitalized interest that cannot be spent!

Got it?  The bank (which did fail, incidentally) was paying out money it didn't have in the form of dividends while suffering from a shrinking value asset base due to the fraudulent lending.  That is, the firm (along with all the others) had participated in and generated a speculative asset bubble with which it then "justified" its capital position, claiming that it had all these loans which were backed up by tangible property that could be liquidated if people could not pay.

The problem is that the claim was bogus -- the alleged "value" was manufactured through fraudulent lending that led to "flips" of houses at ever-increasing prices, backed by fraudulent appraisals of which there was a complaint filed by the Appraisers in the early part of the decade -- more than five years previous!

Not only was the complaint ignored (that appraisers were being effectively forced to "hit numbers" lest they be blackballed and driven from the business) but in addition there was zero enforcement action leveled against financial institutions that were intentionally creating credit out of literal thin air, backed by nothing, through the bogus claim of "value" in these assets that did not exist!

The net effect of this is exactly identical to a counterfeiter blowing stacks of $100 bills out of the ass end of his office copier.  It is identical to a "naked short" in the stock market, where manipulators effectively counterfeit shares of stock that do not exist. 

These were intentional, knowing acts.  These "loans" were made knowing full well that the people taking them could not pay; myriad and sundry promises and representations were made to the borrowers that they'd be able to roll over these loans into new ones when the teaser rates expired, that property would "for the foreseeable future" appreciate at 10% or more a year (thereby allowing serial refinancing, effectively financing one's life on hot air) and more. 

The American people were rubes for going along with this but the finance "professionals" and banksters knew damn well what exponential growth of credit at a 10, 20 or even 30% rate was going to eventually lead to -- the only question was exactly when it would all come crashing down around their ears.

And the regulators?  They not only had to know they didn't care and in some cases actively participated in these schemes!

Were there any honest regulators in Washington DC the day after WaMu reported its first quarter results and declared that dividend the institution would have been closed by those regulators and the portfolio liquidated while the firm still had positive value, with the officers and directors being permanently barred from ever having anything to do with a financial concern again.

But that wasn't done.  Nor was it done at IndyMac.  Nor at GMAC/Rescap.  Nor elsewhere.  This, despite the fact that by the first quarter of 2007 the market had clearly turned in housing and it was known that the asset quality mix in these institutions was toxic and destined to blow up in everyone's face.

It's one thing to take a risk as a private enterprise -- that's within your rights, of course, and some risks lead to big rewards.

But when you effectively scheme and scam to create the illusion of prosperity rather than actual prosperity -- when you lead people to believe they have an ever-lasting font of spendable "wealth" that does not really exist and you do it by effectively counterfeiting the United States dollar you deserve to be in the dock, you deserve to have your assets clawed back and then be tossed into the street in your underwear. If you're one of the executives or regulators who together create this sort of distortion in the market by either willful action or inaction to then pat yourself on the back with this sort of snark is beyond the pale when in any just society where you would be is cooling your heels serving a 99 year no-parole no-pardon prison sentence eating bread crumbs and cockroaches for sustenance.

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User Info Sheila Bair: Here's A Big Cup Of STFU in forum [Market-Ticker]
Attilahooper
Posts: 1924
Incept: 2007-08-28
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New York, by way of Montreal Canada.
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Quote:
If you're one of the executives or regulators who together create this sort of distortion in the market by either willful action or inaction to then pat yourself on the back with this sort of snark is beyond the pale


Par for the course for these mofos.

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Flappingeagle
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The game is rigged, so rigged that you are a fool to play what amounts to "their game". It is too bad that a person can't truly "go gault" as Ayn Rand described in Atlas Shrugged. We could all sit back and watch Wall Street and Washington **** each other until there was nothing left but a greasy fiat-money spot of slime.

Being completely honest, I don't see any resolution coming other than collapse. When the collapse starts looks for Washington to get really desperate and come out with who knows what laws and emergency rules.

Flap

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S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
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Genesis
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Oh yes you can.

And yes I might.

The threshold to get into the "invisible" realm from a tax and regulatory perspective is surprisingly high. It's quite tempting too.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Harrisonact
Posts: 1754
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Just cements my personal position this is all by design, not random and unforeseen. Normal government incompetence can not possibly explain this. Every agency and bureau has turned a blind eye to the crimes.

Knowing it was intentional terrifies me. What other **** is in the pipeline for us proles?

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bilge
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Uwe
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Congress will never pass the legislation needed to implement Sheila's plan because under her plan, people would get to spend the (soon to be worthless) money rather than Congress.

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Snooze
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karl wrote
Quote:
The threshold to get into the "invisible" realm from a tax and regulatory perspective is surprisingly high. It's quite tempting too.


how do you mean 'surprisingly high'? I take it you mean that our tolerance for all this BS is high.

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Genesis
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No, I mean that you can earn a surprising amount of income (if self-employed anyway) and pay no federal income tax. Avoidance of payroll tax (legally) is MUCH tougher, but getting to "zero" on the federal income side can be done at a rather-surprising amount of income. You have to take maximum advantage of deferral options and of course live below your means, but.....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Snooze
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Ok, that makes more sense. thanks

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Wealth is found in the warmth of the sun, in the coolness of moist soil, in the taste of fresh air, and in the pulse of your heart. Plant a seed and harvest your riches.
Bertdilbert
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Hey if everyone gets 10 mil all the debts can be paid and we can remove the debt overhang that is holding the economy back...

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Ktrosper
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Quote:
Hey if everyone gets 10 mil all the debts can be paid and we can remove the debt overhang that is holding the economy back...


Woot! Then we could blow another massive debt bubble live beyond our means and pretend like we're living in another golden age of prosperity!!!

Nah. Let it burn...

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Bagbalm
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Most of my relatives if given ten million wouldn't have the sense to pay their bills off before they started to party.
Preidt2
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burn down fed white house congress senate banks for amerrica

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Puppets Under Destruction
Reluctantdebtor
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Re:
"Under my plan, each American household could borrow $10 million from the Fed at zero interest"

She has my vote for any office!
I could finally replace the temporary spare on my 1990 Sentra with an actual tire and rim. It corners funny with this little wheel.
Sparticlebrane
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Quote:
Most of my relatives people if given ten million wouldn't have the sense to pay their bills off before they started to party.


There, I fixed it for you.
Grashopa
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Quote:

Most of my relatives if given ten million wouldn't have the sense to pay their bills off before they started to party.


Your standard of living is based off of your relative position in the economy. If everyone received 10 million there would be no partying as prices would simply go up. You'd be worse off after that simply from the instability as temporarily all imports would stop and no transactions would take place. Then you better be a good negotiator (or belong to a government union) or else your salary won't be going up as much as it needs to.

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Theft is evil
Abn0rmal
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Grashopa wrote..
Your standard of living is based off of your relative position in the economy. If everyone received 10 million there would be no partying as prices would simply go up. You'd be worse off after that simply from the instability as temporarily all imports would stop and no transactions would take place. Then you better be a good negotiator (or belong to a government union) or else your salary won't be going up as much as it needs to.
Those people with jobs would be better off than people who derive their income from interest payments.
Aliveh
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Indymac was OTC not FDIC.
Genesis
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Alive: I know that, but the fact remains that the FDIC should have caught it. They have concurrent jurisdiction and are charged individually and collectively under PCA with monitoring reserves and assets.

The model actually used appears to have been "we'll take their word for it" but the LAW is that they're jointly and severably responsible.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mortgageguymn
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Anyone who thinks (as she does) that Dodd-Frank did ANYTHING worthwhile is wrong. In my business, reduced-doc loans were killed dead by the market long before they were outlawed. The additional disclosure requirements since 2008 have only driven up costs of compliance and forced a lot of small brokerages out of business (which is fine with me, since many were idiots). The unforeseen (although not by me) consequences of the "anti-steering" component of Dodd-Frank have further reduced competition and increased gross profits in the mortgage business to record highs. The more they "protect" the consumer, the more the consumer pays.

She & others like her have a credulous belief in the power of government to fix things through regulation. Sure, some of that works, but the main thing that should be done (although its too late) is to not leave financial entities with the understanding that they'll be bailed out. Some say it started with LTCM. Paulson changed Fannie/Freddie mortgage-backed-securities from "NOT backed by full faith & credit" to "backed by the taxpayer, just like you always expected". Same thing with Geithner & AIG CDS's. It doesn't matter what laws they write if everyone expects a bailout based upon supposed exigent circumstances. Even today, all of the "smart" people say that TARP, Fannie/Freddie bailouts and AIG CDS backstopping averted Financial Armageddon.

Now Obama claims to want to curb "speculation" that's supposedly driving gas prices higher. I guarantee that it would have unforeseen consequences, hobbling the ability of legitimate businesses to hedge their fuel costs and throwing sand in the gears of freely functioning markets.
Nelstomlinson
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Mortgageguymn, I have long suspected that if we limited participation in the futures markets to those who show an ability to make or take delivery, it would lower prices most of the time. I'm not sure the producers would like that. It would probably lower volatility, and the producers might not mind that.

The markets are supposed to provide price discovery. Instead of seeing buyers bidding according to the value the commodity has in their production, we see gamblers bidding based on wedges and heads and shoulders they imagine in charts. When most of the trading is done by gamblers who have no intention of making or taking delivery, no use for the commodity, and thus no idea of what it is actually worth in use, how are we getting that price discovery that the market is supposed to provide? The excuse for allowing the gamblers is liquidity, but it looks to me as if that liquidity comes at a cost in misallocated resources.

Of course, we know that anything the goobernment does is going to be aimed at letting their TBTF cronies skim more of our money, so I don't expect to see any improvement in the real economy from ``curbing speculation'', whether it's 0bama or Romney or R0bamney or whoever pushes it.
Northeaster
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Massachusetts
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I think this entire structure of our government and bank tie in is beyond corrupt. I wish I had more expertise in financials, but this is strictly a circumstantial indictment of what Americans are up against:

http://pfds.opensecrets.org/N00000245_20....

That is (my) Senator John Kerry's 2010 financial disclosure. Of course when your worth is over $100 million, you can spread the cash around. What I found interesting in a cursory look, is where some of those monies are invested AND by whom. For instance:

http://www.msrb.org/accepted/A0105238.pd....

No surprise J.P. Morgan, but I looked at some of the underwriting and cross referenced with my Senator's "investments". I found it interesting that my Senator invested heavily in a broke ass county, Cook County, Ill., 5% with maturity 11/15/25. What it tells me, if the government is sure to steal more from us, to support financial interests of not just the J.P. Morgans of the banking cartel, but the political CONgress Members as well.

Maybe I simplified this too much or read into too much, but whether it be the FDIC, SEC, CFTC or OCC, it's all rotten, to the core, and CONgress is standing on top of it making it appear to smell like roses.
Marvinmartian
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FlappingEagle wrote..
It is too bad that a person can't truly "go gault" as Ayn Rand described in Atlas Shrugged


Going galt is a state of mind, not where you hang your hat. The characters in "Atlas Shrugged" that had taken the pledge pretty much lived apart living humdrum lives except for vacation times in Galt's Gulch.

You dont have to choose TruthSeeker's route to "go galt". You can do it anywhere.

Reason: spelling
Dburn
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Gen

Go check out the insurance money the FDIC received , plus funding, from 1996-2006. Hint; banks paid no insurance as congress was "convinced" that 52 Billion in the FDIC account was "More than Enough".

Junk her all you want. She took over a agency that was in tatters in 2006 and had to beg congress to force the banks to resume insurance payments. In short the FDIC didn't have the money nor were they getting it from Paulson or Geithner to take prompt corrective action.

The OP-Ed was righteous. She also attempted to push through a rule after mark-to-fantasy was applied by force of congress, to have banks unwind their derivatives for transparency so the public could see their true liabilities. Never made it. Do you wonder why?

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Peterm99
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Dburn -

I believe that Karl has often explained that PCA, if properly executed, requires ZERO external infusion of funds, thus your underfunding excuse doesn't hold water.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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