| User Info
| Jobless Claims 4/12: Not Good in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Maddymax
Posts: 4683
Incept: 2008-02-26
PONZIVILLE
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adler is saying prior weeks claims always revised up not down becuase they dont have all the data. Is that correct, not sure if anybody knows.
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Ben's policy will lead to wage deflation and commodity inflation which will lead to the Greatest Depression and Uprising Ever.
Who needs TA we got POMO
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Susanjbear
Posts: 419
Incept: 2010-06-10
Salt Lake City, Utah
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Per a discussion this week with my friend, a software process engineer who just got laid off from Raytheon in El Segundo after 26+ years...
They are getting hit with layoffs. Nothing is being spared, even people with "active charge numbers." Her last day is the 20th and she said they are due to announce more layoffs the day she leaves. I can't find any significant coverage in the news.
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Susan
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Maddymax
Posts: 4683
Incept: 2008-02-26
PONZIVILLE
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Ben's policy will lead to wage deflation and commodity inflation which will lead to the Greatest Depression and Uprising Ever.
Who needs TA we got POMO
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Digitlman
Posts: 351
Incept: 2011-03-04
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Who cares?
Not Mr. Market, who is currently back up 80 pts...
Ahhh...good 'ol rigged, manipluated, centrally-controlled "free" markets...
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Jubber
Posts: 14606
Incept: 2007-07-05
UK
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why is market going ****ing nuts on this????????????
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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
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Digitlman
Posts: 351
Incept: 2011-03-04
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Cuz now the QE rumor mill has fired up again.
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Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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I good QE rumor, especially from a FED member, will always trump a bad report. Where have you been?
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Peterm99
Posts: 5176
Incept: 2009-03-21
SoCal
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from Maddymax's link wrote... . . most economists contacted by Dow Jones as well as Labor Department officials said they were unaware of the nearly uniform upward revisions in the data over the past year. (emphasis mine) This is either an explicit admission of stupidity or one of the most egregious lies ever (or both). I'm leaning towards stupidity for the "economists" and lie for the gov't officials.
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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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Enapa
Posts: 1176
Incept: 2008-01-25
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I dont understand these numbers. Does this number actually mean that almost 400k people a week are losing their job? If thats the case then how is it good that 1.5 million jobs are lost every month? If thats not the case then what do the numbers actually represent? Very confusing.
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Genesis
Posts: 131439
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Initial claims are offset by hires; you only see half of it.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3608
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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Amazing how they kept using that unrevised number for 6 weeks to claim the claims were at a 4 year low. The cooking pot got too big, as last weeks number was the biggest adjustment yet. Adler is wrong about the data not being in being why it is always revised upward. They estimate it. Why have they never estimated high? I haven't seen a revised downward since I started watching this data every week in early 2009. We don't have a sustained recovery until this number is in the 320K range.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Colk55
Posts: 2451
Incept: 2010-02-11
Indiana
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That NSA number is higher than last year's for the 1st week in April by almost 30,000(Even this year's SA number is 5,000 lower than last year's). Outside of 2009 and 2010, it's the highest for that week since 2003. Maybe the way they've been tweaking the SA numbers is a negative sign. I mentioned the similarities between this year's numbers, '04 and '08. Here are the 1st 14 weeks of claims for those years. The column after each set is the 14 week average. 
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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
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Colk55
Posts: 2451
Incept: 2010-02-11
Indiana
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Mann, I was sitting here thinking it would be nice to be able to access the archives for the news releases so you could see what kind of revisions have been made in the past and found where you can access them. I went through some of them for the years that I mentioned above, starting with the first release in March for each year.
Almost all of the revisions are upward, by either 2,000 or 3,000. One week's numbers were not revised in March 2004 and one week in March 2008 was revised downward by 3,000 but there were no upward revisions of the scale we've seen the last few weeks. Small sample size but it would be laborious to go through them individually.
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The politician's motto: If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull****.
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