The Stupid, It Burns! (Cell Cost)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-11 10:21
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
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The Stupid, It Burns! (Cell Cost)
 

I am going to have to start a category on The Ticker called "stupidity in alleged journalism"; if I do, this may well be the first post moved to that category:

And so Americans continue to have a small number of expensive, poor quality cell phone providers.  And how much does this cost you?  Take your phone bill, and cut it by 80%.  That’s how much you should be paying.

Please.

The author cites European nations that have much-smaller bills.  But those nations don't have massive phone subsidies built into their plan prices and they cover much smaller landmasses and operate at higher subscriber densities per-square-mile covered.  This means they have more revenue per square mile covered with signal which in turn means lower operating costs.

I go over this in Leverage in some detail.  Virgin Mobile, for example, has a $25 (now $35; the price went up a bit) plan that offers 300 voice minutes, unlimited data and unlimited text messages.  It's ideal for many young people and you can use Skype to talk if you want, thereby having "voice" without using voice minutes.

That's $300 a year (or $420 if you missed it when it was a bit cheaper) for service over a landmass much larger than these other geographic areas cited.

Why is it more reasonable? 

That's simple -- you buy the device outright and thus there is no implicit subsidy in the price.

Or you can do what I did -- T-Mobile, $45/month, unlimited voice, text, and data, first 5Gb/month at full speed (then throttled to ~150kbps after that.)

How?  Again, no device subsidy.  I had to "bring my own" handset and pay whatever I wanted to for it up front, slap in a SIM card, and off I go.  I get the flexibility of choosing how much I pay for the device and where I get it -- I can buy it new from the carrier, I can use one I have, I can pick one up off Craigslist or eBAY, or I can buy something the carrier doesn't sell.  All are fine; if it is technically operable on the network it will function.

Now contrast this with AT&T's "iPhone" service.  The iPhone 4s is "allegedly" $199.

That listed "price", incidentally, is a convenient marketing fiction.

The down payment is $199.  Let's total up the actual costs.

AT&T's "Nation Unlimited" calling is $69.99/month.  I then must add a data pack; the most-comparable is the 3Gb package for $30.  And then I must add unlimited messaging for another $20 if I'd like to text people.

That's $119.99 monthly for two years on contract or $75.00/month more, every month, for those two years than I pay on T-Mobile without a device subsidy where I can choose to not try to cost-shift my handset back onto the carrier - a "privilege" for which I get bent over the table and financially abused in spades.

Put another way that iPhone 4s costs $1,800 + $199 up front or $2,000 over two years to own; the rest of the price beyond the $199 up front is simply embedded in your monthly bill and is charged to you for the vanity of owning that device.

Anyone who has one iota of common sense or interest in honest reporting would look at this problem for a few minutes and see exactly this outcome.

There is no "corruption" here as the author of the cited hit piece alleged.  There is simply your (as a consumer) vanity or (if you prefer) stupidity; you could have the same service for $45 on T-Mobile (but you bring your own device) or for that matter on Virgin Mobile (Sprint's network) for $55 (again, you bring your own device.) 

This sort of distortion is what happens when you have iFanboi cult crap that gets embedded into consumer services -- it pollutes the cost picture for everyone who comes in contact with it, directly or indirectly.  AT&T and Verizon (along with Sprint on the contract side) have had their business models trashed by the over $600 embedded per-device cost that they must pay up front to Apple for their vaunted iFanboiToy and as a consequence they finance that back on you, the consumer, who are foolish enough to patronize them!

In short the cellular service itself costs far less than the claimed "cited costs."  The reason you're paying so much is that the device is being cost-shifted silently and at a monstrous mark-up -- some 200% in raw profit beyond what's charged to the carrier -- and you're stupid enough to swallow that despite having the option not to even if you don't buy that device from the company in question!

On Sprint's network with Virgin Mobile there is no contract required at all.  T-Mobile asks for a 2 year agreement to save $10/month, or $240 over the two year period.  I'll take the discount and did, which is why I went back to T-Mobile after being on Virgin for a while.

The cited piece claims that Lightsquared was in some way blown up for political reasons.  Not quite.  Lightsquared attempted to get cute with existing spectrum they purchased from a former satellite communications company where the original transmission parameters were very low-power (satellites don't have much energy available to them as they must get it from solar panels pointing at the sun) and the earth-station transmissions are point-source and highly-focused (and thus are of little threat to anyone else.)  Lightsquared proposed to use much higher power levels and aim them everywhere along the ground (since that's the only way it works for cellular service.)  GPS receivers, unfortunately, are on nearby spectrum, they operate on very low power levels (since satellites, which send the signals they listen to, are again power limited) and in addition because of the historical use of these frequencies the GPS companies have been less than diligent in filtering their front ends and have taken other design shortcuts such as leaving their receivers intentionally open so they can interoperate with Russia's GLONASS system as well.  The latter is particularly important to companies like Deere (farm tractors, you see.)

So the problem that arose was that Lightsquared proposed to do something that could have dramatically interfered with GPS systems.  Exactly what level of risk and interference was presented is difficult to known with any sort of certainty.  Lightsquared says it's not an issue, several tests say it was.

If anything it appears that the provisional license and approval given to Lightsquared up front was problematic (if there's corruption it's likely found there, not on the other side), although I would (and have) argued that the GPS manufacturers should not get away with the cost of their bad design practices being shoved off on others, including Lightsquared (just as I argue here that your stupidity in paying $2,000 for an iPhone is not corruption -- it's nothing more than you making a choice to blow an insane amount of money on vanity and, if you're an AT&T or Verizon customer and don't have an iPhone, you're even more stupid as you're paying for the other customer who does!)

In any event the problem isn't as presented by the referenced article. The real problem, if there is one with Lightsquared's detonation, is that the GPS manufacturers were given a pass when they sold their devices for alleged "safety-critical" purposes despite the fact that there is no right to block the use of adjacent spectrum to that which you're licensed within simply because you decided to take shortcuts in your designs or built units for international markets with no guarantee that here in the US some of the frequencies you left open wouldn't be used for some other purpose at a much higher power level at some time in the future.

Simply put American consumers try to demand something for nothing and then people like Matt Stoller put forth hit pieces that are absolute bilge and inflame rather than inform.

Matt ought to know better than to write crap like this, especially since he also had to know I'd eventually find it and comment on it.

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User Info The Stupid, It Burns! (Cell Cost) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Gen_maximus57
Posts: 4580
Incept: 2007-09-03
Green
Tampa
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Thank God I locked in that $25 a month price on VM, they haven't raised it on me yet. Love it
Maybe-not
Posts: 76
Incept: 2011-04-26

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Karl, I think there are exceptions. My sprint family plan with 4 phones costs me $220 per month. Unlimited data, text, and 1,500 minutes of voice. If we use 100 of those minutes of voice it is rare thanks to Sprints unlimited mobile to mobile on any carrier. I also get a 20% discount on my bill from a corporation I represent.

I could take my 4 phones and go to Virgin but with the service I currently have it would still cost me $220 a month and I wouldn't get the $199 upgrade every two years, and it would cost me $2,000 in initial costs to have the caliber of phones I currently have. The $220 is my total bill taxes included. I've looked at virgin and some others trying to figure a way to reduce my bill, but there is no way with out giving up something. If you think I'm wrong I would like to hear how. I'm always eager to save some $.
Poodlelover
Posts: 147
Incept: 2012-02-02

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I'm fairly surprised how many people have these incredibly expensive cell plans. In fact, the best one can get an iPhone 4S for on any of the major cell networks--if they pay the $199 cost--is $80/month (includes minimum voice, a bottom of the line text plan, and very limited data), this with much less allowance than the price Karl mentions, though.

I recently finished up the two years commitment on a Verizon phone and, keeping the phone, transitioned to prepay. The bill has dropped quite a bit. There are enough pre-pay options now from various providers than unless a person is absolutely married to the idea of owning an iPhone they ought to consider them.

It's ok, your friends won't stop talking to you just because you're on some low-end droid device and not making half a car payment on your cell plan.

Dazedncornfused
Posts: 313
Incept: 2010-10-13
Green
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I have an unlocked Nokia GSM paid $200, I buy $25 airtime each quarter. I blabber about 350 minutes a month mostly Skype over WiFi, 3 or 4 times a week use walking or driving GPS, text mostly grocery pickup lists, and browse the web for my email, weather maps, and news. I don't even use my laptop for email, anymore. I cannot spend my purchased airtime, my purchases are now just to extend the expiry date. Voice quality is landline.

Mom needed (I politely demanded her to have)a cellphone. I put a $10 Senior Tracfone triple minute - a Samsung with great voice quality - on my credit card. It costs what, 6 cents a minute? She's a talker so she uses 500 minutes a month, so that's 25 bucks.

I am mystified by $100+ cellphone bills. How does this happen?

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Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered.

Rentier
Posts: 195
Incept: 2010-06-19

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Ah, not everyone is getting taken to the woodshed by AT&T. For one I can't get a good T-mobile signal at work. I also get a 30% discount on my plan with AT&T because of my work. Have the cheapest Family Talk Plan 550 minutes.

Having 3 phones with 1 being an iphone with $20 month 300MB plan, I don't need big data plan since have campus wifi at work and have wifi at my house and use little in other areas. $5 for 200 text messages. The other two phones are basic with just the talk plan. My total phone bill is $82.50. Of which my parents pay $20 since one of the phones is for their use and talking is all they need. The other phone my wife uses as personal one since she has 4S iphone her work pays for.
Dan721
Posts: 2776
Incept: 2007-08-23
Green
Phoenix, AZ
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I'm with Maybe-Not, with 4 phones on Sprint at about $50-55 per line. The upgrade cycle is coming up, so I've been shopping around. I can't significantly beat the per line price I'm getting, and the new HTC phone they are releasing will be discounted from ~$550 to $199. We maintain top-of-the-line phones on three of the four lines; one line could certainly be a simple pay-as-you-go phone, but the cost of 3 on-contract and one off would not be much less.

Of course Sprint could alter the deal, or the unlimited-ness of their plans, but so can Virgin (see the $10 hike in rates).
Gizmo
Posts: 12
Incept: 2007-09-15
Green
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This is like the scam that is "Rent-to-own" furniture and the like. I was trying to explain to my daughter's idiot boyfriend that he would be paying around $4500 for a $900 big screen TV if he went to RentaCenter, which he thought was a *super* idea. Moron.

Of course he also has a brand new 4G phone at over $100 per month and we don't even have decent 4G service in this area.
Azzi
Posts: 144
Incept: 2009-10-08
Green
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I dont know why KD hates Apple so much aside from stock valuation. I have a factory unlocked iPhone on a prepaid plan, it costs me on average $15 monthly. My daughter has an iPhone on a prepaid plan with unlimited messages package for $20/month as teenagers mostly text and not talk. No data though but there are reasonable packages if I needed some.
what sold me on them is device quality and the number and quality of apps.
Sent from my Wi-Fi only iPad.

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The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. - Thomas Jefferson

Cirrus
Posts: 269
Incept: 2007-07-18
Silver
SoCal
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I have 5 phones at $65 a piece per month. We use around 1100 to 1300 mins per month (so we're stuck with the 1400 min verizon plan), a pretty good chunk of Data, and a butload of texts. Looking at T mobile plan it looks like around $260 total before all the little charges and taxes. Not sure if it would make much difference? Am I wrong? It would take me til mid 2014 to get all the contracts closed.
Thanks,
Cirrus

Reason: spelling
Ckaminski
Posts: 1586
Incept: 2011-04-08
Green
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In my little neck of the woods, I'm happy to pay the VZW tax, because while everyone else is getting zilch, I'm still tooling away. Verizon is expensive, but there's a reason for that. From Boston to Seattle to Hawaii to Caribou, ME, I have never failed to get reception longer than any of my compatriots. Obviously, there's not much reception by anyone at Kilauea. :-)
Jinxx0r
Posts: 4233
Incept: 2007-08-10
Silver
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Quote:
Put another way that iPhone 4s costs $1,800 + $199 up front or $2,000 over two years to own; the rest of the price beyond the $199 up front is simply embedded in your monthly bill and is charged to you for the vanity of owning that device.


This is why I no longer have an iphone and will not get another.
Dazedncornfused
Posts: 313
Incept: 2010-10-13
Green
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>>Rent-to-own<<

Yup, you hit it.

"If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove you’re not racist, you’ll have to find someone else to vote for in 2012 to prove you’re not an idiot."

Ain't it the truth.

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Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered.
Lowbeyond
Posts: 16938
Incept: 2008-02-11
Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-5741....

So... you want a new phone at a discount?! Sure pay us 30 bucks. smiley

Quote:
Verizon to start charging for phone upgrades

Starting April 22, Verizon will go from offering an extra $30 off a phone upgrade to charging that same amount for the privilege. It's still a better deal than buying a full-price or unlocked phone, though.
Eric Mack
by Eric Mack April 11, 2012 10:20 AM PDT
(Credit: Screenshot by Eric Mack/CNET)

Verizon Wireless will soon begin charging customers for the privilege of upgrading to the latest and greatest phone. Here's the announcement from Big Red itself:

"On April 22, Verizon Wireless is implementing a $30 upgrade fee for existing customers purchasing new mobile equipment at a discounted price with a two-year contract.
This fee will help us continue to provide customers with the level of service and support they have come to expect, which includes Wireless Workshops, online educational tools, and consultations with experts who provide advice and guidance on devices that are more sophisticated than ever."

In case you didn't catch exactly what's happening here, Verizon will begin charging customers to be able to get their new phone at a discount. This is a 180-degree flip from the days when the company would offer an additional $30 discount to customers looking to upgrade once they'd completed at least 20 months of their two-year contract.

In other words, your basic upgrade now costs about $60 more from Verizon with the loss of the old $30 bonus discount and the addition of the new fee. That's a bummer, but all in all, upgrading through Verizon still offers substantial savings over buying a full-price or unlocked phone.

When my Droid 2 recently died, it would have cost me $500 to replace it with a Droid Razr at full price, which is what I was looking at since I hadn't yet reached my upgrade eligibility date. Instead, I called Verizon and did some groveling and got the Razr for $199 with a two-year contract extension.

I didn't get the $30 discount promised in my contract, but I also avoided this new $30 fee. So it's a bit of a wash for me, but nonetheless I continue to watch with anxiety as the trend in terms of wireless fees, incentives, data caps, and throttling continues to be less friendly to consumers.

So far though, the speed of my 4G LTE downloads have kept me thoroughly opiated. I'll miss my $30 later, right now I've got apps to download...

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
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Quote:
When my Droid 2 recently died, it would have cost me $500 to replace it with a Droid Razr at full price, which is what I was looking at since I hadn't yet reached my upgrade eligibility date. Instead, I called Verizon and did some groveling and got the Razr for $199 with a two-year contract extension.


... and then paid an $1000 extra to Verizon during that 2 years for the $300 savings up front.

TINSAAFL
Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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I have ATT. I have a POC phone, namely because I don't want a contract. I'm with ATT because I haven't taken the time to switch. I live on a creek in a low area and I don't know what phone has enough signal to get down there. The wireless I am using for this computer won't work down there despite there being a tower less than a mile away. Need to get rid of it too. It would be more fun to switch and give my money to a nice girl every 2 or 3 months.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Chuckmak
Posts: 314
Incept: 2011-01-05
Gold
City of Bridges, PA
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I think I'm starting to convince a couple of people around me to go the "Pre-Paid" route. I'm on Sprint's network via Boost Mobile and unlimited talk/text/net on 3G is $55 a month (yeah $10 more than Virgin but still great compared to other plans). Paid for my phone up front in full and my bill drops $5 for every 6 consecutive monthly payments made (up to 18 months which makes a $15 a month discount). I can't justify spending $110+ a month on a cell phone...ever.
Krzelune
Posts: 5513
Incept: 2007-10-08
Green
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I just switched my phones to t-mobile from AT&T. I was able to bring all 4 of my phones over (3 iPhone 3gs's and 1 iPhone 4. I upped my shared minutes from 600 to 1000. With at&t the 3 iphone 3'a had unlimited data and the iPhone 4 had 5gb. My iPhone 3's now have 2gb and the iPhone 4 has 5gb. We never use more than that. I also have unlimited texting on all phones. With my 15% business discount my monthly bill went from $245 to $120. oh, and t-mobile waived the activation fee.

AT&T can kiss my butt

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The desire of millions, the inconvenience of millions, the suffering of millions, the death of millions, does not concern them because of the evolutionary humanist lens they peer through.
Pheenix11
Posts: 48
Incept: 2010-08-16

Port Richey, FL
Banned
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We have 4 lines through AT&T, 3 of them iPhones and our total bill for all 4 is $165 including taxes per month.

Everytime a new iPhone comes out we sell our old one for the same if not more than we paid for it and buy the new one for nothing.

We're happy.
Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
Everytime a new iPhone comes out we sell our old one for the same if not more than we paid for it and buy the new one for nothing.
[/quopte]
If you are ignorant enough to fail to understand that you just made a false statement you need 30 days to gain enough knowledge to understand why this is false.

If you are not ignorant enough and do understand then your statement was knowingly false and that's good for 30 days too.

See 'ya in a month.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Elkad
Posts: 106
Incept: 2009-09-04
Green
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2 lines on AT&T. No smartphones, just "texting specials" that are OK at browsing.

We upgraded phones about 18 months ago, and pushed them into donating both phones (took some arguing). Only 450 shared minutes, but unlimited M2M, text and data. Our rollover minutes pool has a couple thousand minutes if needed.

Last year my wife ran over her phone with her truck. AT&T wanted $200 to replace it. Again, a bit of threatening to go with another carrier and they comped it (in exchange for extending our contract another 12 months)

Including all the taxes and fees, $108/month.

Not the best deal, but T-Mobile doesn't have any local towers, so you get cut off after a few months of 100% roaming. Non-GSM carriers barely have any coverage at all.

We just got 3G service in town in January. Still EDGE everywhere else.

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"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury refilled, public debt reduced, the arrogance of officialdom tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance." - Cicero - 55 BC
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 946
Incept: 2007-08-08

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Quote:
Take your phone bill, and cut it by 80%
.

That sentence at least for me turned out to be not far from the truth for most people from my point of view.

I paid $59 (2010) for the phone that I'm entering this response on (Boost Mobile Sanyo Mirro), and I prepay, in $10 increments, 10 cents a minute for voice and 35 cents a day for as much data as I care to spend the time stuffing through a dialup-modem-speed connection. I'm grandfathered in of course; if I were to start the service today, it would cost 20 cents a minute and 50 cents a day.

The Innuendo is now down to $59 at Walmart, and I will soon actually be able to buy one. I may do so IF I'm satisfied that (1.) it will actually do what I'm buying it for (act as a USB thumb drive) AND (2.) I can move my service to it and still keep my current rates.
Jb350
Posts: 359
Incept: 2011-06-10

Detroit metro
Banned
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Yeah HTC Wildfire S from letstalk for $150 down and $35 a month is an ok price I guess.
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