Put A Fork In Johnson's Foreign Policy
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-10 15:40
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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Put A Fork In Johnson's Foreign Policy
 

This is not Libertarian:

Johnson said that while he wants to end the war in Afghanistan, that doesn’t  mean he would necessarily stop drone attacks against terrorists in Pakistan or  Yemen, even though he believes they create more enemies than they kill.

“I would want leave all options on the table,” Johnson said.

So drones are a legitimate way to bomb people you can't see?  I argue that if you want to make war and kill people the more personal the better.  It makes you face the fact of what you're doing, and maybe reflect on why.

There was something a bit more noble when Kings rode into battle and risked their own hides.  Nowdays we play push-button war and the people who die are the lowly "grunts" -- and innocent bystanders when our "drones" are less than perfectly precise, which is most of the time.

Never mind that Afghanistan is not a declared war.  Neither was Iraq.  I accept that we may need to go to war but The Constitution says for it to be legitimate Congress must declare war. 

Let me be perfectly clear: No Libertarian can take the position that undeclared "wars" are legitimate other than in instances of "hot pursuit", which clearly does not apply here.

In other words I'll accept that you can chase someone who just attacked you for long enough to get Congress into session and ask for a declaration of war.  But that's all.

But Johnson didn't stop there:

But if Johnson plans on leaving Afghanistan, how does he plan to leave the option of a drone campaign against al-Qaida elements in Pakistan on the table?

“So now you have the U.S. bases that exist in those areas, do we shut down those military bases? Perhaps not,” he suggested, taking an odd position for a supposed anti-war candidate.

That's insane.  By what rights and what "strategic interests" do we maintain operating bases in Afghanistan -- manned with US troops?

One intervention Johnson said he supports is the U.S. mission to help capture Joseph Kony, the leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army, which Johnson believes is arguably the “worst terrorist” group in the world.

“Based on what I know, yes,” Johnson said, indicating his support for the mission to capture Kony.

What aggression has that organization launched against Americans?

None.

But the crazy doesn't end there.  Don't read his "policy" on Iran.  He at the same time says they won't launch a nuclear weapon and then in the same breath says they don't want one. 

Well, if they don't want one then why are we sanctioning them on trade?  The only justification for doing so is that you believe they do want nuclear weapons.

Incidentally, I do believe Iran wants nuclear weapons.  Given the fact that there are other nuclear technologies (specifically, LFTRs) that are (1) safer, (2) produce better-quality process heat and thus are more efficient (3) have burn-up ratios 10x higher or more than uranium-cycle plants, thus radically reducing the waste issues and (4) have been proved to work there is no reason to use the fuel cycle Iran (and everyone else) has chosen unless you want dual-use out of the technology. 

That's a fact, and that Johnson doesn't appear to understand this fact makes him dangerous.

When you add all this up Johnson has his head sideways on foreign policy.  Sorry folks, that's just reality.  None of his position is Libertarian and the wishy-washy bull**** is a disaster for America.

If you want a Libertarian foreign policy I've got one to offer.  Let's see if R. Lee Wrights -- or some other contender -- would like to pick this up.  It's cogent, it's Libertarian and it both protects American interests and resolves the issues.

Try this on for size:

  • We leave Afghanistan.  Now.  We have no business being there.  Any excuse we had for being there expired with Bin Laden, and that was a poor excuse.  Close it down and leave as fast as we can fly the boys out.  Period.

  • The Pentagon gets put on a diet.  Here's the deal: 10% off 2011 spending levels right here and now for two years.  Then 10% more every year, until it's down to half of its previous size.  The Joint Chiefs will scream.  That's fine -- they will argue we can't maintain our presence in East BuFu with that reduction.  We're not going to.  Over the next six years we are going to leave all of our foreign "encampments" in the Middle East and, with a few exceptions of defensible RDF emplacements for rapid response to small-scale incidents, we're bringing the boys home.  After six years (when we're down to 50% of former spending) every bit of spending from that point forward must be justified on the premise of current threat posture given our realignment on an annual basis or it's gone.  Any part of the military command that practices "spend it or lose it" has the entire command structure involved in that decision sacked instantly.  (This, for those who are unaware, is the usual practice throughout the entire military -- and it is insanely wasteful.)

  • The 10% reduction in years 1 and 2 ($75 billion per year) goes into direct support of LFTR and CTL (carbon-to-liquid) combined plant development.  Do it as an "X Prize" style award with private firms providing the design and development.  At the same time rework the NRC to get the regulatory crap out of the way that prevents these plants from being rapid-deployed.  In years 3-6 the reduction is direct off the budget and after the sixth year the support disappears.  Done.

  • Once the CTL plants begin to come online we withdraw strategically from all oil-producing areas as replacement is achieved.  Within five years we should be completely out.  If Iran wants to go to war with Israel after that point (or vice-versa) that's between them and is none of our damn business.  Ditto for the rest of the Middle East or anywhere else for that matter.  To make sure private industry has the proper incentives make the following promise: In five years there will be zero military support for any oil, natural gas or other natural resource coming from any nation other than America.  If you want any such support you will pay every nickel of the expense up front through hiring your own private force (e.g. mercenaries) and bear all risk associated with it (including them getting killed.)

  • No military actions will be undertaken without a declaration of war other than for "hot pursuit" which will be limited to the time required to convene Congress and call a vote, up or down.  This is what the Constitution demands and this is what will be followed.  This needs no further explanation.

  • Gitmo is closed tomorrow.  We try all persons held there and elsewhere or we release them.  There is no war, therefore there are no POWs.  We either have probable cause to try and convict them or we do not.  Period.

  • The NDAA and Patriot Acts are disavowed by executive order and repeal demanded.  You either arrest and try US Citizens for actual crimes you can prove or you shut the hell up and leave them alone.  End of discussion.

Let's talk about what we get out of this path.

First, it's Libertarian.  Libertarians demand that nobody (including especially The State) initiate force.  This leaves us able to respond to immediate threats but denies the "endless war" crap.  It's over and done right here, right now, period.  If there's a legitimate and immediate threat (e.g. some jackwad decides to attack a US installation or US citizens) we can respond until we can get Congress involved and do it the right way.

Second, it gets us the hell out of the Middle East and everywhere else.  If a bunch of savages want to kill each other that's their business so long as they leave us alone.  We are not responsible for being the world's policeman.  We have neither the moral or legal authority to engage in such.  At the same time we make very clear that any attack upon US Citizens or US property, wherever located, will be treated as an act of war and responded to in accordance with The Constitution.

Third, it solves our energy problem which is the justification for being entangled in the Middle East and damn near everywhere else in the first place. We have no choice in this matter.  We cannot simply walk off into the sunset without resolving the mess that we created over the space of 30 years.  If we do there will be an attack on the delivery of oil to us within weeks or months and the economy will collapse.  We must fix this, and do so in a durable and permanent way.  There is exactly one way to do that given today's technology that we know will work and is not full of speculative crap.  I'd love to simply let the market work in this regard but that's insanely naive and begging to have our nation's economy destroyed.  There are people who hate us and would love to seize on this opportunity.  As a result we must solve that problem at the same time we pull our military posture back to that of a defensive force ready and able to take on whatever may come, but not projecting force beyond our borders absent direct and immediate provocation and lawfully-declared war.

Fourth, it's workable.  It is not "draconian", it is not "idealistic" and it is not "naive."  It doesn't tell our military to cut 43% of their budget in year one, but it does tell them that they're going to get cut back as we withdraw to a defensive mission that comports with The Constitution and we're going to remain there.  It maintains our force levels where they need to be for defensive purposes and demands that we use them only in accordance with The Constitution.  It protects our energy resource needs in the short term and in the intermediate term removes all argument for foreign intervention as we become entirely, 100% energy independent for five hundred years into the future -- guaranteed.  It also provides us a ceiling on price for that energy as we have enough thorium in the coal we burn now to perform this transformation without burning one ton of it for direct thermal purposes over the next five hundred years even with expected population growth and no per-capita energy use reduction.

You want a foreign policy that works?  I just gave you one and I didn't ask to be Secretary of State first.  When we demonstrate energy independence (and we will if we go down this path) at a cost that makes Middle East Oil look expensive (in terms of both money and treasure to insure someone doesn't blow it up) other nations are likely to choose our path at which point all those who want to blow each other up can go shoot sand, as that's all they'll have of value to fight with.

Johnson has his head planted between his buttcheeks on this because he's trying to assuage both Libertarians and "mainstream voters", while stroking off the military screamers who insist that we must spend a trillion in the next few years (at present growth rates) every year in order to "remain ready."  You can't get there from here and Johnson knows it, but he doesn't have a cogent plan to solve the problem so instead he slithers along and hopes you don't notice.

The problem with our current posture is that we're in this position because we put ourselves there through a failed energy policy and that, along with the self-aggrandizement that comes with the purchase of lots of expensive toys that we then need to find a use for is not only idiotic, inhumane and indefensible but we also can no longer afford it.

It's time for a Presidential candidate to stand up and take this issue on once and for all.

That man is not Mitt Romney, Barack Obama or Gary Johnson.

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User Info Put A Fork In Johnson's Foreign Policy in forum [Market-Ticker]
Eaglewwit
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Do you really see anyone in congress willing to abandon Israel. Not gonna happen. They go to war we go to war. I don't agree with it But it is what it is.
Genesis
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Then Congress can declare war. That's the Constitutional way to handle it.

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Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Traz
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Wouldn't that be fantastic? Nice post Gen!

But.. have to shrug and say it will never happen which is a sad commentary on this country and its "leaders"

"War", in all its forms, declared or not, police action or in the name of "security" is literally the last manufacturing base the US has.

That's right... this country MANUFACTURES war. Plain and simple and sadly we're pretty good at it. We've been at it in some form of continuous action since the 1950's. Wind one down and find another to take it's place.

Don't get me wrong. I like a strong able bodied and advanced military.. for our DEFENSE. Hit us and we will hit you twice as hard. Hit us again and we'll obliterate you. Other than that leave us the **** alone! But we like to meddle, our arms manufacturers love to sell to every ruler, overlord, dictator they can. We hock our weapons to our "friends" who suprisingly enough become our enemies later.

I could rant for ever on this..



Arpigeo
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In a perfect world or even in one partially sane .....I'd be able to vote for someone with the intelligence and integrity Karl Denninger displays on a daily basis .....unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the world me and my children will ever have the chance to inhabit .....thanks to you just the same Karl
Steelhead23
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Uh Gen, Keep listing policy positions like these and I will, by conscience if not good sense, be forced to write-in Karl Denninger on my ballot. You do understand that your positions, as rational and moral as they are, would never be espoused by any mainstream politician. Never. The simple reason is that the prime directive for any politician is "get elected" and to get elected one has to bring in a lot of money and other support. This position is antithetical to fundraising in the U.S. Ask Ralph Nader.

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Avianphlu
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ron paul needs to step up to the plate to embrace this...he is part way there...needs to jump in with both feet.

bravo Karl...bravo

Reason: added
Tesla
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You forgot to cut foreign aid to most of the planet, cut the CIA's overseas activities, and while you're at it, clean house at Foggy Bottom.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

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Winstonsmith2009
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"Try this on for size:"

Love every action listed. It would transform this nation and put us on a prosperous and safe path into the future. Wouldn't it be great of any of that could happen?

Unfortunately, there's a trillion or two dollars worth of vested interests hiding behind a government they own, enabled by an apathetic, mis/uninformed, propagandized citizenry fed garbage by a sensationalist corporate media and I don't see any way around all of that combined.
Flappingeagle
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+ about 6,000,000 to Traz, man you ranted right on the money. Here is your best, most accurate and succinct line:

Quote:
But we like to meddle


Nail meet hammer on that one.

Flap

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S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Djsnola
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Karl etc does anyone have a rough number as to how much the true cost of oil is when military spending is included? That should be the number that any candidate pushing this quotes again and again. Make it simple for folks!
Sailordeek
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How did Johnson run away with the party? Did they feel sorry for him?

Still would be great as Treasury Sec. Paul/Nepolitano/Still/Denniger(Fed Chairman)
Ocdan
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KD, I love you man!!! In a good sort of TF way!

There is nothing in this screed I don't agree with! Well, maybe I would cut defense a litte more, say, like 15-20% annually. What was it that Ike guy said about the military-industrial complex? People worry about what our "boys" will do when they get home. Well, let's see there is a lot of infrastructure that needs redoing. Heck, don't we have something called the Army Corps of Engineers? Heck, if nothing else, give em all 40 acres and a mule! Heck, anything is better than what we are doing now with these kids in uniform.

And don't think I don't respect them, I love them. But what we are doing is shameful and when it flies apart, this economy is going to be a mess. Just look at the stock markets today! Watch CNBC and you would think Armageddon has begun. These people just can't think of any other way to run a country!

Of course, the DWTS/NASCAR populace and the FSA, as well as, numerous other special interest groups will fight this kicking and screaming.

I think I have to agree with others and write your name on my ballot in November. Sorry, but I think that is the only way I'll vote for the president's office. Everyone else is a joke, inc. RP! No one is really serious, but you! He77, Mitt/Obama. Two sides of the same coin. Bidnezz as usual, no moatter who wins.

Ever hear the one about the difference between a republican and a democrat? A repub will rob a bank and shoot you if you saw him do it. A dem will rob a bank and bribe you if you saw him do it. Either way, one robs the bank!

Oh well, time to get back to work!!!!! Keep up the good work, KD.
Genesis
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Djs: About $100/bbl for the military spending (figure half of the $750 billion annually is for "oil protection" directly and indirectly.)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Custodialmoney
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I keep thinking of the Yuri Bezmenov video where he explains that after the KGB psyops of "demoralization" that people will not be able to think logically anymore. I guess he was right when he said the process was irreversible, I have so little hope for this country. I do not think that there are enough people who can think for themselves, here we have a third party candidate who is no different from mainstream candidates on most of his platform.

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Djsnola
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So gen is that an additional 100$ added to the current market cost?
Genesis
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Correct.

That's a rough number but it's close enough.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Infidel
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between here and there
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So this is the libertarian presidential candidate, a pot smoking war monger with 200 grand of campaign debt? Sounds like the love child of Timothy O'leary and Margaret Thatcher

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Bertdilbert
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Quote:
One intervention Johnson said he supports is the U.S. mission to help capture Joseph Kony, the leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army, which Johnson believes is arguably the “worst terrorist” group in the world.


Yeah, the guy who made the Kony film was found in San Diego a week later, naked, jumping on cars and masturbating in the street. I could picture Johnson doing the same.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

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Anti
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Nice plan - it should be shouted from the rooftops or at least speechified to the Libertarian Convention. Is there any way you could arrange that?

To me, if understood, and I recall skimming uncomprehending over "thorium reactors" when you first mentioned them, it seems like a plan that should electrify Libertarians.


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Duc888
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Quote:
I argue that if you want to make war and kill people the more personal the better. It makes you face the fact of what you're doing, and maybe reflect on why.


I'd go one step further. ANY war or bull**** police action would trigger an immediate draft of all eligible sons and daughters of ANY politician who either votes for such action or in the case of these undeclared excursions....lets them stand. ALL sons / daughters of eligible age would be stuck on the front lines. No exceptions.


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...burp
Blueskies
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@Traz, absolutely right, the "war machine" is an out of control behemoth that demands constant feeding. It is our biggest economy, not only manufacturing of munitions and electronics and jets and engines and funding technology and research (not to mention toilet seats that are very expensive), but all of the bases here and abroad, and all who supply those bases, and all the towns that reap the economic rewards of those bases.

Daveincsa
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Gen for President!!

That's exactly the Foreign Policy we need!
Widgeon
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He's a warmonger. They are all warmongers. War wins elections in amerika.

Marvinmartian
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I'd like to see some mention of absolute morality, in the context of the nonagression pledge. Its a matter of taking the moral high ground. The reasoning for this is from Napoleon: The moral is to the physical as three to one.

The prevalent postmodern "every culture is OK" meme has gone a long ways in explaining our current moral depravity.

Energy, in particular CTL technology, is secondary. Only once a right to human existence is acknowledged can we get the means to establish that human existence.
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