The REPUBLICANS Show A Hint Of Intelligence (H.R. 4180)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-04-10 09:08
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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The REPUBLICANS Show A Hint Of Intelligence (H.R. 4180)
 

My God, there's intelligent life in The House.

I'm talking about H.R. 4180, which you can find on http://thomas.loc.gov/home/thomas.php or your favorite other site (sorry, no direct link as Thomas has a hissy with that.)

I have been pointing out for the last five years, since I started writing The Ticker, that asset price inflation is in fact inflation and that due to the monetary system we have (along with all other modern economies) that issue money as debt instruments you can measure actual monetary inflation trivially because we track all debt instruments.

That is, one need only look at the Fed Z1 to find out how much "moneyness" is in the system.  One need look at the GDP statistics to determine the total value of all goods and services sold in the United States.

Since MV = PQ by definition it is thus trivially easy to determine the degree of monetary inflation, that is, the rate at which the expansion of "money" exceeds that of aggregate production.

Here it is:

Note that The Fed claims to have an "excellent record" on price stability.  But inflation is not all consumer prices -- it is all prices -- and asset prices are prices.  The Fed just intentionally ignores that little issue.

If you though the early 1980s were bad on inflation you're delusional -- you've been screwed, blued and tattooed with much-worse inflation for the last 20 years.  It just came in places you thought you liked -- such as your house.  The problem is that all inflation is in fact debasement of purchasing power and it's all bad, not good, in the end.  When it shows up in assets the negative side is deferred but not avoided.

By the way, you've seen the same chart in a slightly different form a lot in the Ticker; it's found here:

Here's the problem -- nobody in their right mind will make those sorts of loans -- that is, credit expansion -- on a sound basis.  There is no set of assets to pledge against said expansion.  By definition such an expansion is fraudulent and is functionally equivalent in the economy as counterfeiting of the nation's currency.

Instead of resolving the problem by forcing those who had issued fraudulent credit in the 1990s to eat their bad loans we instead blew another bubble, this time in housing, with even bigger and more-fraudulent loans.  And when that blew up in 2007 and 2008 we then "decided" to have the federal government take on more and more debt to prevent the debt bubble from deflating, transferring the fraudulent credit from the private sector where it should have remained and been allowed to blow up the issuers and takers of said bogus loans to the government's balance sheet where the taxpayer became directly liable for same.

So now we have HR 4180, which has a nice passel of co-sponsors incidentally (31 at last count) which says, among other things:

The Congress finds the following:

(1) Monetary policy can only affect the level of employment in the short term because nonmonetary factors determine the level of employment in the long term. At best, the Federal Reserve may temporarily increase the level of employment through monetary policy, but such efforts risk the possibility of price inflation and increased business cycle volatility in the future. However, the Federal Reserve can achieve price stability in the long term through monetary policy. Price stability is desirable because both price inflation and price deflation damage the U.S. economy. Therefore, to maximize long-term economic growth and achieve the highest sustainable level of real output and employment, price stability should be the objective of monetary policy.

(2) Countries whose central bank has a single mandate for price stability generally have a better record of achieving stable prices than countries whose central bank has a mandate that gives equal weight to other objectives such as maximum employment or low interest rates.

(3) In general, an overly accommodative monetary policy inflates both asset prices and prices for goods and services. However, an overly accommodative monetary policy may sometimes cause a misallocation of capital that inflates asset prices disproportionately, creating unsustainable bubbles in asset prices, while prices indices for goods and services do not register significant price inflation. When asset bubbles burst, many investments must be liquidated at considerable cost to the U.S. economy in terms of lower real output and employment.

(4) Price stability cannot always be measured solely through price indices for goods and services since such indices exclude changes in asset prices.Therefore, the Federal Reserve should monitor (A) the prices of, and the expected returns from, major asset classes (including equities, residential real estate, commercial and industrial real estate, agricultural real estate, gold and other commodities, corporate bonds, U.S. Government bonds, State and local government bonds, and other securities), (B) the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies, and (C) the value of the United States dollar relative to gold, as metrics to determine whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is consistent with long-term price stability.

I'll only disagree with one point -- Gold is not a separate asset class as it is a commodity.  Therefore, there is no reason to separate it out and in fact doing so is an error.

But other than that, yep.

The bill then goes on to mandate the inclusion of asset prices in the Fed's definition of "stable prices" and formally establish and disseminate in semi-annual testimony to Congress the means by which compliance with the mandate is being monitored and its success.

There's more to like in this bill, but that's plenty to start your Tuesday reading assignment.

And once you've done so, get on the horn and insist that your Representative co-sponsor and demand passage of this legislation.

Oh, incidentally, one name not on the list of co-sponsors is Ron Paul, and none of the candidates for President, including the one who claims to be a Libertarian, Gary Johnson, has come out in support of this.

Gee, I wonder why not?  Might it be because he's nearly $200 large in the hole in his campaign against $11k in cash, a loan that no bankster in his right mind would make to a campaign with no assets behind the loan on other than outrageously-usurious terms were it not for the ability to counterfeit the nation's currency?

PS: Thank you Kevin Brady (R-TX 8)

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User Info The REPUBLICANS Show A Hint Of Intelligence (H.R. 4180) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Drench
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Quote:
Referred to Committee Mar 08, 2012

Committees: House Committee on Financial Services

The committee chair determines whether a bill will move past the committee stage.
That would be Spencer Bachus. I'm sure this is high on his list of priorities.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/11....

Bertdilbert
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Another piece of grandstanding bull****. Cut spending/raise taxes, rather than deflect attention elsewhere to the Fed.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Richardebel
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My rep, Manzzulo is a co-sponsor. He also voted against the TARP. At least we have one good Congressman here in Illinois.
Hapablap21
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Now if they'd just throw in a line defining "stable prices" as 0% inflation, I'd be a very happy camper.
Genesis
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Bert, wrong.

The fraudulent credit creation is what makes possible the bull**** budget games.

Cut that **** out and Congress cannot get away with it any more.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Peterm99
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Very nice. There are actually 12 "shall"s in the proposed legislation. However, I see nothing along the lines of "penalty for violations shall include x years in prison, confiscation of all assets, and/or death".

Without defining some serious penalties for violation, would passage of legislation such as this be effective in appreciably improving the current situation?

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Genesis
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It might be, because among other things it forces the criteria into the open in the semiannual testimony.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Krusty
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Probably a silly question, but if "asset" prices are to remain "stable". How does one make money on investments? Should asset prices not rise and fall based on market principles?
Bertdilbert
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Heh Karl,

The bill may sound good up front but that is meaningless.

The dual mandate the Fed follows comes from the FULL EMPLOYMENT ACT OF 1978.

Are we going to dismantle the Act during an election year when the focus is on Jobs? Dems will love it.

What this amounts to is laying blame on the Fed for accommodating the budget passed by congress.

Supposing that the Fed quit playing games and let interest rates find their free market honest level? What happens to that wedge in the pie chart of government spending? It widens and pushes the deficit higher or forces spending cuts.

Ain't gonna happen because this gang can't find an honest dollar to cut from anything. They are going to bull**** until we hit the wall.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Peterm99
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Do you believe that the section on "metrics" is sufficient to preclude the effective falsification/concealment of economic data (e.g., the substitution of "owner's equivalent rent" for actual housing prices, bogus "hedonistic adjustments", etc.)? I seem to recall the reporting of such adjustments actually was publicly reported (as is required by this bill), but nobody seemed to care back then.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Genesis
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I don't know if it's sufficient (the devil is always in the details) but it will make it very difficult to argue "price stability" when one has to include asset PRICE changes (not "owners equivalent rent") in the discussion section on outcomes.

Note that the testimony at present does not COMPEL a comparison against metrics on a qualitative basis. This legislation appears to. Now enforcement might be a different matter, but it is certainly an improvement over what we have now.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Gweedo
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Forbes had something on this in relation to the Frank and friends blow back already under way...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2....

Am I reading the bill right that they are tying the monetary policy expectations to gold prices in dollars? Why doesn't that sit right? I feel that can still be manipulated, but I don't know how.
Genesis
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Yeah, I have an objection with separating out Gold as an asset class; it's a commodity and should be treated as part of the commodity base.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Assassin
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i echo Krusty's question.

"the bill" wrote..
(4) Price stability cannot always be measured solely through price indices for goods and services since such indices exclude changes in asset prices. Therefore, the Federal Reserve should monitor (A) the prices of, and the expected returns from, major asset classes (including equities, residential real estate, commercial and industrial real estate, agricultural real estate, gold and other commodities, corporate bonds, U.S. Government bonds, State and local government bonds, and other securities)

does that mean if stocks or corporate bonds tank, the Fed will be compelled to intervene to prop them up? i think the Fed (and Congress) worships the stock market too much as it is. requiring them to do so would be pure madness.

and would this bill require them to try and suppress stock market growth if it's deemed as too runaway? would this involve a Plunge Perpetration Team? :P such a measure would happen at most ONCE, until the Congress' and Fed's (and executive branch's) masters and funders yank their leash.

now, i realize that factoring in stock and bond market prices doesn't necessarily mean the Fed needs to intervene in those markets; they can merely use them as part of their cue to raise or lower rates. but what if we're in an environment where the economy in general is stagnant, with high unemployment, but assets like stocks and bonds keep climbing and climbing. what sort of rate action would that situation justify if the bill is passed?
Salt
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Paul wants the FED gone. Why would he ostensibly approve of it via a tangential vote FOR?
Wootendw
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I do not want to make the Fed work. I want the Fed to be abolished. I think that should be the libertarian position.
Quads4444
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"...Now if they'd just throw in a line defining "stable prices" as 0% inflation, I'd be a very happy camper."

Yep. This bill is useless without the zero inflation target. Right now the FED defines "stable" as a 2% loss of purchasing power every year. Next year they may define 'stable' as a 8% loss of purchasing power every year.

But the recognition of asset price inflation is a step in the right direction.

Salt
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But the recognition of asset price inflation is a step in the right direction.

but that would lower capital gains and revenue.

/s
Bsfootprint
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Here's a direct link to H.R. 4180
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?....

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...
Publius
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Something I just noticed in reading the bill is another provision to "diversify" the FOMC. As it is now NY (and Washington) have the most influence. It looks like they are trying to spread the power out to the other regional Fed banks more. As it is now, the money power is concentrated in Wall Street, with their *****s in Washington riding on.
Mannfm11
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Karl, if gold was a mere commodity, it wouldn't have much of a price under it, as there is about 60 year supply of it. Note these bankers hold most of it.

The paper money system isn't going to hold up too much longer. It can't because there is not a mathematical solution to debt based money. Plus, the politicians will steal from us somehow and if we don't let them **** with the money, they will steal our property. The masses won't mind for awhile because it will generally be from the class above them. The elite won't mind because they will end up with all of it. We will throw it down some **** hole like a war. Probably be the Eskimos next seeing as they have seen squatting on all that frozen oil and not only threaten the bears, but threaten to sic the bears on us.

It doesn't make any difference what we use as money as long it isn't something that can be rolled off a cardboard tube. One thing I don't believe is going to last too much longer is impounding the property of society with government fiat. They will take our property giving us the money, which will then make good toilet paper.

The best thing to do is put the Fed out of business period. Mish posted some comments by John Hussman. Even the socialist Swedes had enough sense to wipe out the equity in their failed banks and recapitalize them out of the money supply. The US entered into a deal with the devil under Breton Woods and the game is going to take us all to hell before we are done. There is no ****ing government jobs program. Only policies to waste capital and blow bubbles.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Tm22721
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Central planning of an economy in the name of 'stabilization' is an old trick of the TPTB to manipulate and milk the slaves. Either we have a free enterprise system, warts and all, or totalitarian repression. There is no workable compromise that cannot be captured by oligarchs or their proxy politicians.

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The country is terminally ill and IT JUST WANTS A PILL.

The only way up is down.
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