| User Info
| Oh Look, Claims Adjusted Again in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Uppity_peasant
Posts: 3106
Incept: 2009-06-26
Online
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From my examination of the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) releases by the BLS, there's a whole lot of Bull**** & Lies going on at the Bureau. I'm still trying to figure how Illinois, the zombie state of the Midwest, added 52,600 jobs from December 2010 to December 2011 (number 8 in the US, and 3.67% of the US total for that period), but then added a negligible amount of jobs (less than 4,000) in the 1-month-shifted time frame of January 2011 to January 2012. It must be the magic "seasonally adjusted" BLS pixie dust. Can't wait till tomorrow's release to start matching up the numbers (this link is the March 13, 2012 release, until tomorrow)! http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0....
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If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
Reason: add context
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Ls2gto
Posts: 482
Incept: 2007-08-30
East Coast
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Part of my job is to help find jobs for engineering grads. This year is looking a bit better than last year, but the market is nothing compared to 12 years ago. Starting salaries are all over the place, low 40s to mid 70s, and job offers are sparse.
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Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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Expect more unusual adjusting/messaging of the numbers until the election is over.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Anti
Posts: 4287
Incept: 2007-10-09
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The revision was +16,000 - the usual revision is +4000, to give some context.
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Enapa
Posts: 1161
Incept: 2008-01-25
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+16,000? Holy **** thats just blatant lies that the public still wont even notice. I fill out about 10-20 apps a day for anything i can find. California is not in any recovery by a long stretch. Im crossing my fingers that one of my oil rig apps gets accepted. Its going to suck being away from my wife and two boys for so long, but what choice do i have?
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Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05
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I think I read somewhere that someone did a statistical analysis of the revisions and found that 94% of them were always upward. To anyone other than someone actually _trying_ to fudge their figures, that should tell them that their's something wrong with their methodology.
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Pcaldallas
Posts: 1343
Incept: 2009-03-02
Unicorn Ranch
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How do the filings for social security disability look? That should give some insight into the rolling off/finding a job question.
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"The appearance of law must be upheld, especially when it's being broken." - Boss Tweed, Gangs of New York
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Enapa
Posts: 1161
Incept: 2008-01-25
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Pcaldallas thats a good question.
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3536
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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It almost appears as if all they want to do is minimize the increase they report or better yet, report a decrease. 360K is a bad figure and if we had a real recovery, would be an alarming figure. There were very few 350K figures reported between 2004 and 2008, most dealing with the Katrina disaster. Here we are 4 years deep into this mess and still getting them. Jobs or no jobs, there isn't a stable employment situation in place. 350K is 25,000 too high. Though this might not seem like much, on an annual basis it is 1.3 million positions.
This has to be something skinny Santa is looking at, when he keeps talking about having to do something about employment. I think he has done too much. I was reading Rothbard's America's Great Depression and he debated the confidence, social mood game. Rothbard said mood followed the economy and actually turns down after the **** has hit the fan. Robert Prechter says the reverse, but then again, Prechter says the mood can only get so high and in a bubble, there always has to be an "Oh ****" moment. The subsidy of debt puts the prudent in peril, as their capacity is suddenly obsolete and the competitor that made a bad decision is suddenly endowed with new equipment at no cost for the mistake. The performing older real estate properties here went in the tank when the non-performing new properties stole their tenants, quite often after being foreclosed and debt marked down significantly.
Winston, I have been following this for 3 years now and I have yet to see an downward revision of the prior week. Maybe there was one and I fainted and forgot it.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Mondocondo
Posts: 3684
Incept: 2007-12-03
Miami
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If we looked back the past two years at all the times the claims number was reported in the headlines as decreasing, and it actually was, we'd have negative claims being reported by now.
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3536
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Genesis
Posts: 130691
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Uh, yeah.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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