Bernanke's Continued Insanity
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-26 09:23
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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Bernanke's Continued Insanity
 

There's dumb and then there's insane.  This is in the latter category.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said while he’s encouraged by the unemployment rate’s decline to 8.3 percent, continued accommodative monetary policy will be needed to make further progress.

The decline in unemployment may reflect “a reversal of the unusually large layoffs that occurred during late 2008 and over 2009,” Bernanke said in a speech today in Arlington, Virginia.“To the extent that this reversal has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”

The problem is that these "accomodative policies" don't work -- because they can't -- when there is too much debt in the system.

There is too much debt in the system now.

This is the issue, at the end of the day, and why Bernanke's moves are pushing on a string.  The only way you can "goose" production and consumption with loose policies is if you can entice people to borrow more money.

But when the system is too heavy with debt then there is no demand for more borrowing irrespective of how low interest rates are.  Leverage always has a cost and the overhang from it, and the carrying cost both in terms of perception and reality, is a brake on further acceptance of credit.

As the upper boundary is approached more and more of the debt simply is a roll-over of other obligations and thus provides no GDP improvement at all, as it's not spendable.  As increasing percentages of the debt "issuance" are nothing more than recasting of existing indebtedness the impact wanes and in fact can go negative.

The folly that Bernanke continues to persist in is that we can "grow" our way out of the mess.  That would be a pleasant outcome if he could point to one time in the last 30 years when it worked. But he can't -- not even for one three month period, including the last serious crunch when Greenspan tried what Bernanke has done this time around.

In the 2000-2003 recessionary period the increase in new debt never once, not even for one three month period, led to a contraction of the "spread" between debt addition and GDP addition.

In other words the theory that Bernanke is using was tested and disproved by Greenspan about a decade ago.

We're in trouble folks -- there's an insane pilot at the controls and he's pulling up while in a monetary flat spin. 

If someone doesn't remove him from the left seat soon, we're going to hit the ground at 400mph.

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User Info Bernanke's Continued Insanity in forum [Market-Ticker]
Zarathustra
Posts: 5937
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Silver A True American Patriot!
Funkytown
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Please keep your eyes focused on the DOW? Thank you....

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Flappingeagle
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Bernanke is suffering from escalation of committment. He's so wedded to his theory that he can't let go and admit he was wrong. He'll go down in flames before he changes course. He does not care if he takes us down with him.

I would say go long on parachutes but our pilot Bernanke has locked the doors so we can't get out.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Randy123
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All that matters is OIL. He is on hold.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Trades50
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He will keep devaluing as the debt and inflation increases. The US standard of living is still too high on the global playing field. Outside overseas interest have bought paid for our government.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Grashopa
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He is saying this because the only thing that he cares about is the money supply and maintaining it in the face of banks deleveraging.

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Theft is evil
Captbill
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He's ordering more speed...has to keep this charade going at least until November.

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Incredible. There's Smith and he's standing there and he's got the iceberg warning in his ****ing hand, excuse me, his hand, and he's ordering more speed. Lewis Bodine, RMS Titanic
Genesis
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What he's ordering is speedballs, and we've got a bad case of cardiac imbalance.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Preidt2
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seemS destruction is the plan.....then they rent our house back to us.....con sen sit as dopes watching a parade......impeace impeace impeach omama...

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Puppets Under Destruction
Ben
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These dog and pony tricks have 'worked' so far, at the price of massive system instability. Should anything go wrong, anywhere in the economy or monetary realm, there is nothing to do, no room to manoeuvre, and the correct will be blindingly quick and painful.

Remember late Feb, 2009 when the market tanked day after day and even the hardcore bears here started to post 'Ok - that's enough. Any further and it's lights out...'.

That will be the best possible scenario when this system tips out of balance one Sunday afternoon.

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"Why are you going to learn French?"
"Because I'm going to France," says Joe.
"I'm from the future. You should go to China."
Richardebel
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I can't believe that Bernanke is dumb enough to believe that more "accommodation" will work or that he is too suborn to admit he is wrong and change course. But I do believe that he is doing the bidding of London based banks, which the Fed is part of, who are intent on destroying both the European economy and the US economy so that they can consolidate power by instituting a new economic system controlled by the London based banking interests. They may or may not succeed in doing this, but I believe that this is their intent. They know the "Math" doesn't work as you eloquently demonstrate. But it doesn't matter to them. We can put the blame on the Politian's and corrupt bankers, but the real blame lies with the people for not being informed and refusing to accept the truth about our corrupt economic system.

Whenever I try to discuss this with friends and family, their eyes glaze over, and they effectively say "shut up! don't bother me with this BS.
Steelhead23
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Richard, Occams Razor would hold that looking for conspiracy when simple idiocy would explain more is a waste of energy. Maybe there is a dark, elite conspiracy to take over the world. More likely though, a handful of powerful people, with strong ideological certainty and filled with a fear of the unknown (whatever would we do if the TBTF banks failed? Unthinkable!) are going to run us into the ground (and below) while trying to pull out of that flat spin. With Ron Paul running a distant third, I have come to the conclusion that the U.S. is going to remain on its current course and bucky is toast. Then what?

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Etz
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Of course Bernanke's policies have nothing to do with unemployment and everything with risk mispricing and "accommodating" ****ty financial asset speculation by his true employers.

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Rutben
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Jesse describes the "credibility trap" nicely ...."I think there is sufficient room for doubt that the Fed, President and Congress would 'do the right thing' for the public rather than their crony capitalists. They are caught in a credibility trap, and are unable to police or reform the system without indicting themselves”. That's why we're going non-stop to infinity.
Onelegged
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NW Colorado
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QEIII, here we come! Why not make it a double this time?

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Mannfm11
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I was throwing rocks at the MMT guys on a site the other day. The leaders of the pack, Randall Wray and the gang. They were picking on the Austrians. If you read the Austrians, they could see this mess happening a million miles away. No one saw it coming you know. The Keynesians that did, saw it when it was plain as the nose on their faces. The only one I give credit is Steve Keen, who has his own economics, a blend of Smith, Keynes and Minsky.

The Fed can only give bankers more money, money they are liable for in the first place. This allows bankers and their cronies to speculate. Having a crack up boom merely amplifies the business cycle. Without bankers, there would be no business cycle, that is if the government and central banks didn't accomodate them.

What starts out as a small injection, like one of those you take insulin, becomes one you have to have two hands to hold and someone else to push the plunger. It is one thing to pump this mess up. It is another to clean up the mess when it comes down. Bennie can create a crack up boom. What the hell is he going to do when it slows down? Jump?

This crime boss should be impeached. What is really going on is the hounds are getting close to the bankers again. The bankers need someone to get the hounds off their scent. Enter Bennie the skunk.

The idea of blowing another stock market bubble is the most insane idea of all. Hopefully bonds blow up, as this is the only thing that is going to stop this idiot. The Fed has less control of bonds than most think. If he is so damn intent on destroying the currency, of financing insane government, then the bond vigillantes are going to show up in force. Monetizing profiligate spending is the worst thing a central bank can do, other than cover up bankers crimes.

In other news, Bill Black says the jobs bill is a CEO fraud bucket and that stealing will be worse than ever if it is passed. Congress is not even holding hearings, perferring to steal behind closed doors again. Our government has become a crime syndicate of epic proportions.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Jstanley01
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Trades50 wrote..
The US standard of living is still too high on the global playing field.
Sez who? Of course it appears too high when Ber-spank-me and the gang are all running around like headless chickens, artificially propping up non-performing assets -- throwing good money after bad, that is. Whilst CONgress steps in, building every bridge to nowhere in sight, as if that's going to cure jack-****.

The true productive potential of this economy will remain unknown, this side of allowing Capitalism to work by allowing whatever bankruptcies and defaults there are that need to happen, according to what the free market dictates, TO HAPPEN.

It is all the shenanigans -- to by any and all means avoid any kind of macro reset -- which are producing America's slow decline. Which makes that decline purely self-imposed.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Eaglewwit
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Bernanke is behaving rationally in the context of events. If you ask the average person on the street who knows who BOB is, they will say he is great and saved the world. Nearly every single CONgress critter thinks BOB is the great savior as well. If what he did has appeared to save and fix things, then the only rational thing to do is to do more of it.

It is really that simple. Maybe it all blows up, but I am beginning to think otherwise. I can't back it up with math or rational thought, all I got is my memory of the last four years to verify it.
Aztrader
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Scottsdale, AZ
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Everytime the market tries to sell off, the Fed comes to the rescue. Goosing the market on a Monday morning has been typical for them to get the week going. Expanding more credit to the banks will do nothing but blow the bubble even bigger. The ramp jobs are still getting weaker and weaker and losing their punch. The the reality of the new trillions in derivatives comes to light and they start blowing up, the blood on the street will be everywhere.

The governments of the world are allowing this insanity so that they can make believe they can keep their promises of free handouts to maintain power. The leverage in the system will implode and the ponzi realized......
Eaglewwit
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They have a plan B, we just don't know what it is and probably can't fathom it. I suspect things like the NDAA are part of that plan.
Jstanley01
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San Antonio, Texas
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IMHCO, U.S. finances have become one humongous, unprecedented, interlocking maze of incentive traps.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/incentive....

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Preidt2
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this market is communism....impeach the trash con-sen bought off b-tches and liar pres

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Puppets Under Destruction
Checkthisout
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Most of the fish in the pond (which is already half-covered by lily-pads) think they have PLENTY of time to sort this out before the entire pond gets covered with lily pads (at which point they suffocate to death).

What's another doubling time again? 4 years?

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There are no gun free zones where free men tread.
Widgeon
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Quote:
We're in trouble folks -- there's an insane pilot at the controls and he's pulling up while in a monetary flat spin.



But, But, But. It's the Bernank's thesis. It can't be wrong.

Widgeon
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Quote:
Richard, Occams Razor would hold that looking for conspiracy when simple idiocy would explain more is a waste of energy.



Makes it sound as if these CB leaders (and their minions) never talk with each other. Good luck w/ that.

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