Housing Recovery? Economic Recovery? Forget It
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-22 15:29
by Karl Denninger
in Education
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Housing Recovery? Economic Recovery? Forget It
 

Forget it folks.

When you add all this together with the demographic problems we have, you've got the ingredients for a disaster -- a disaster we are going to encounter sooner rather than later.

The amount Americans owe on student loans is far higher than earlier estimates and could lead some consumers to postpone buying homes, potentially slowing the housing recovery, U.S. officials said Wednesday.

Total student debt outstanding appears to have surpassed $1 trillion late last year, said officials at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a federal agency created in the wake of the financial crisis. That would be roughly 16% higher than an estimate earlier this year by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

This is going to destroy retirements and those who currently own homes.  You're finished folks.

Here's the problem -- we have a demographics issue, as everyone who has paid attention knows.  That is, there are fewer young people compared to old, which leads to pressures on things like Medicare and Social Security.

But the traditional path is for older people to downsize their economic lives.  They sell their big house and buy a smaller one, or live in an apartment.

To sell it someone has to have money to buy it.  Who is that going to be?

It's not going to be the young adults now in college because we have screwed them by saddling them with this debt.  They thus cannot qualify for a loan to buy your house!

Further the "free money" brigade has driven up the cost of college at multiples of the increase in earnings power from professions over the last three decades.  This has made it less and less likely that college is a decent investment at all.

There's just no solution to this other than to force the "free money" crap out of the educational system.  All of it.  This means starting with restoring the ability of students to file bankruptcy and avoid the debt if they cannot pay along with removing all federal guarantees.

That would in turn force lenders to only hand out loans to people who are likely to pay them back.  In turn that would force the cost of college down precipitously, because there would no free money nor any lent money at all if the program did not have a verifiable and realistic capability to return sufficient income to pay back the loans.

As it stands now there is no penalty for colleges that lie about income ranges and likely outcomes for various professions.  They were lying when I was in school and they're still lying today. 

As for the so-called "economists" this is what they say:

Economists say college is an increasingly good investment because of the widening pay gap between jobs that require a degree and those that don't.

I respond that any economist that argues that a thing rising in price faster than the income that thing generates when you make the investiment is a "good investment" needs to be turned into pink slime and used for dogfood, and the school that handed out that person's degree needs to be boycotted and their graduate's resumes stuffed directly into the paper shredder when received by potential employers.

Leverage (look to the right and click to get a copy) spends considerable time on this issue because it is precisely our young adults who are intentionally left gullible in their high school education when it comes to the essential nature of exponential growth and the abusive debt practices of schools, including their local schools as part of the local government system, and that in turn leaves them to be the latest "marks" that are then targeted for abuse by colleges, banks and the government.

This abuse must end, but even if we ended it today the damage that has been loaded into the economy from these practices and which we will have to absorb, much of which will fall on the 50+ population, cannot be avoided.

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User Info Housing Recovery? Economic Recovery? Forget It in forum [Market-Ticker]
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
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Region formerly known as the United States
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Virtually 50% are not being paid back now: maybe over 60%.

This is a phreaking crime of epic proportions that the politicians & bankers have allowed to happen by design to enrich said bankers, etc.

http://www.mindingthecampus.com/forum/20....

Quote:
As Edububble notes, 61% of folks with a student loan are not paying. This includes a massive contingent (47%) in deferment (mostly current students) or forbearance (mostly unemployed or under-employed?).
Jackl
Posts: 2234
Incept: 2008-01-17

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As we've said before, there simply isn't enough money to support all the ponzi's in the economy.

Not the social entitlement ponzi.
Not the financial squid ponzi.
Not the housing ponzi.
Not the pension ponzi.
Not the medical ponzi.
Not the education ponzi.

There isn't enough money to cover even ONE of these issues. Your children are NOT going to suddenly gross three to four times what YOU earn now in 20 years. It isn't going to ****ing happen.


It's all going to burn. Have fun.

Zarathustra
Posts: 5953
Incept: 2009-04-29
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Funkytown
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Karl, can any student loan get discharged? What about the ones taken before it became non-dischargable? Are there any court cases/circumstances that show a discharge?

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Flappingeagle
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Incept: 2011-04-14

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Quote:
This is going to destroy retirements and those who currently own homes.
If you are already in the house you plan to spend the rest of your life in, then that statement is most likely not correct. If, on the other hand, you have plans to sell your current house, downsize to a cheaper place, and use the proceeds to help fund your retirement, you are most likely ****ed. ****ed as in bend over for the barbed-wire cucumber that is headed your way.

Quote:
we have a demographics issue

That is the 900 lb gorilla sitting quietly in the corner. While demographics are getting some play, they are not getting nearly enough. Demographics are going to become more and more the driving force behind events as the future unfolds. What is going to happen? If you are 50+ get ready for a retirement where you have to keep working to live and eat. A lot of the promises that have been made are going to vanish as the younger crowd looks at what they have been signed up to pay for and says "**** THAT ****" you ****ers are on your own.

It is all our (the 50+ crowds) fault too. We elected politician after politician who made promises to be fiscally responsible but who then went and spent money like a drunken sailor. Instead of constantly holding their feet to the fire until the either quit or straightened up, we took a pass and enjoyed the last 30 years of the debt orgy. I must say that we have it coming and I am as guilty as anyone.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Inthedim
Posts: 298
Incept: 2010-01-03
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http://www.finaid.org/questions/bankrupt....

The US Bankruptcy Code at 11 USC 523(a)(8) provides an exception to bankruptcy discharge for education loans. This page provides a history of the legislative language in this section of the US Bankruptcy Code.


2006: The wage garnishment amount was increased from 10% to 15%.

2005: The US Supreme Court upholds the government's ability to collect defaulted student loans by offsetting Social Security disability and retirement benefits without a statute of limitations. See Lockhart v US (04-881, December 2005).

2005: An amendment added an exception to discharge for qualified education loans, which includes most private student loans. Before this amendment only private student loans made under a "program funded in whole or in part by a governmental unit or nonprofit institution" were excepted from discharge. However, most private student loans included a nonprofit organization as the guarantor, and the courts have interpreted such loans as excepted from discharge.

2001: US Department of Education begins offsetting up to 15% of Social Security disability and retirement benefits to repay defaulted federal education loans.

Aztrader
Posts: 6648
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Scottsdale, AZ
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Let's see if Omama decides that part of his campaign, he will allow loans to be forgiven and pass it on to the taxpayers.............

They did it for the banks, now for the kids................
Fraglord
Posts: 69
Incept: 2009-07-16

Dearborn, MI
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Of course this debt will be forgiven. Just add another trillion to the debt and viola! More FSA voters!

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Those who demand the most usually deserve the least.
Jonesapple10
Posts: 379
Incept: 2010-11-09
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will this debt be forgiven? I don't think it matters - it won't be paid. What are they going to do - really? Put them all in jail? Just another reason why the US will eventually default.
Greednfear
Posts: 176
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Seattle
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True to what Aztrader said, I am worry that Obama or some politicians will try to win votes by proposing student debt forgiveness and shift that burdens to taxpayers.
Enapa
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Who is to say this isnt a backdoor bailout again? Mass loan forgiveness for those who buy a government owned foreclosure?
Uppity_peasant
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Widgeon wrote..
This is a phreaking crime of epic proportions that the politicians & bankers have allowed to happen by design to enrich said bankers, etc.


I used to be a conservative who defended "The Stupid Party" against the Democrats, because they seemed to be hopelessly outclassed in the Thievington, DC money wars.

When the Rucking Fepublicans passed that bankruptcy bill, I started to get suspicious. Turned out that my suspicions were correct.

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If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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Why wouldn't someone with existing student loans take advantage of this? Especially, if your rates are high. Is there a downside?

http://loanconsolidation.ed.gov/index.ht....

All of your federal loans can be consolidated under the direct loan program. You can then do a traditional payment plan or an income based payment plan. Income based is 20% of your discretionary income (AGI - 150% of poverty line) a month. Anything not paid back in 25 years is forgiven. Also, you pay nothing if unemployed or under the poverty line and you can get a forbearance for up to 3 years if undergoing temporary financial hardship.

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2656
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Quote:
If you are already in the house you plan to spend the rest of your life in, then that statement is most likely not correct. If, on the other hand, you have plans to sell your current house, downsize to a cheaper place, and use the proceeds to help fund your retirement, you are most likely ****ed.


When I lived in Florida in the early 1980's, there were numerous mobile home parks of retired people. Basic rule of thumb was they worked in a high wage state and upon retirement sold their home and moved to Florida which is a low wage state. Thus they enjoyed their retirement savings in the low cost state with their added benefit of a chunk of money from selling their full size home and downsizing to a low cost mobile home.

A lot of retirement plans surround moving to a low cost, low tax state to live out the golden years. This however normally was based on the ability to sell your existing home at your expected price and subsequent profit on exit. This also meant there must be a qualified buyer at that price.

Problems
1. Would have been move up buyers now stuck with neg equity conditions in many states.
2. First time buyers now stuck with disqualifying levels of student loan debt.

I think a lot of retirement plans are now going to have to revolve around renting out that extra room to provide additional income.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Raftermanfmj
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Quote:
Why wouldn't someone with existing student loans take advantage of this?


For me, the downside was I consolidated when rates were 8% - and you cannot do it again. So as rates fell, I was locked in. I was getting HAMMERED on monthly payments on a 35K debt...but a windfall leveraged payout on WDC took care of 25K, and a 15 year 10K home equity at 5 percent reduced my monthly from around 450 to 83 dollars. Bearable.

Only way out of this debt I can see is to convert it into debt that can be walked away from...get a home equity, pay off the SL, and walk on the underwater house. 'Course you may have ethics issues with that. That's your personal rubicon.

Another problem with demographics is the baby boomers are selling their equities to make ends meet, and this Baby Boomer Bubble, which added to the equities boom, will deflate. Count on it.

What population growth we have is either illegal and is a negative for the treasury, is non-dischargable debt enslaved and cannot find work in any event, or is born into a family steeped in the gibs me dat welfare mentality. None of this bodes well for housing prices, nor for equities.

Read on another site how of new housing starts, the majority were multi-family. Really, why build what is really an Albatross and tax/fee magnet? Better to rent, where you can break camp and disappear like a gypsy in the night if need be.

And yes, I rent out apartments, and have had that happen several times to me. And I expect it to become more frequent.

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I have never wished to cater to the crowd; for what I know they do not approve, and what they approve I do not know. - Epicurus
Oderint dum metuant - Caligula & Police State USA
Bertdilbert
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Quote:
Another problem with demographics is the baby boomers are selling their equities to make ends meet, and this Baby Boomer Bubble, which added to the equities boom, will deflate. Count on it.


That is another argument I have made for some time is who is going to buy the equities as the retired folks sell to make their retirement program? The up and coming generation is not only dealing with student loan debt but lower incomes relative to the cost of living and hence less money to purchase things like investments in stocks...

So just as in housing related retirement plans, the projected returns on the stock investments they made is going to go "poof" as well. The most ****ed are going to be the ones living in the last man standing states of California and Illinois

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Seanmiller
Posts: 80
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Im 27, about to turn 28. My wife and I have a combined income just breaking into 6 figures for the first time this year. However, we rent our home and have no plans to buy in the next few years.

Why?

- I still have over $20k in student loan debt. Im not getting a house note till thats gone.
- The job market is pretty shaky and is only likely to get worse. I want to be flexible if something should happen and I have to move to where the work is.
- I strongly believe that housing is going to fall another 25% or more before it bottoms out. I stopped telling people that because they look at me like Im crazy when I say it. Even then, unless values fall low enough that the tax burden isnt crushing I just dont know about the wisdom of purchasing.

That last bit is what Im most scared about. Once house values fall low enough, local.gov is going to feel the pinch badly in reduced property tax receipts. Hope everyone is looking forward to more potholes, less cops, and deteriorating primary education.

ETA: Saw this get posted while I was typing...

Quote:
The most ****ed are going to be the ones living in the last man standing states of California and Illinois


Forgot that reason. Im in IL right now and trying like hell to leave. Gainfully employed at the moment, but that could change at any moment.

Anyone need an analytic type in CO or WA? :)

Flappingeagle
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@ Seanmiller

For a person in your situation I think you have done an extremely good job of planning. I don't know what else you are doing but I would suggest building up a real (as in good size) emergency fund and then knocking out the student loan.

Are you and the wife driving beater, or at least reasonably priced, automobiles? I hope so. If you don't have much debt you have the golden opportunity to get out of debt and build a very nice life for yourselves.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Jstanley01
Posts: 8176
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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But won't the bloated cohorts of academic bureaucrats, and endless ranks of tenured professors, and the multitudinous multitude of pigmen who are ALL making out like ... uh ... pigmen, won't they take all that loot that they are grabbin hand over fist and buy houses, huh? Won't they? huh? won't they, huh? won't they? huh? huh?

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Sparticlebrane
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-08-25


Banned
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Quote:
- I still have over $20k in student loan debt. Im not getting a house note till thats gone.

Obviously I can't speak for your specific situation, but at your income level you could likely (assuming no other huge debts or payments) pay that off within a year's time, if you really put your nose to the grindstone.
Jaydawg
Posts: 268
Incept: 2009-06-14
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I love your analysis Karl. I often find myself being one of the youngest persons at various places in my own town whether it be the movie theater or just the local store. I'm 26 and literally the youngest person in my neighborhood. A lot of promises that were made are going to be broken in regards to those thinking their Golden Years are going to provided for by the younger working age.

Onelegged
Posts: 265
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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Not surprising since we have no economy, just serial bubbles waiting to burst. No one ever "sees it coming" either. I'm sure with student loans "this time its different".

I get so sideways over the farce that this country's economy/financial system has become that I can't see straight.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Psquared
Posts: 1876
Incept: 2008-10-11

SE USA
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I don't know what is happening with housing, but it has been severely depressed where I live for the better part of 3 years. All of a sudden it has caught fire since the beginning of this year. I've looked at 2 houses in my price range that had been on the market for over a year. They both sold within days after I looked at them. These are 1200 square foot 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath homes so it is the low end of the market. But still, both had been for sale over a year.

Oh, and I cannot even get a mortgage broker to call me back to pre-qualify me much less process a loan application. I've called three now and they all said they were slammed.

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"Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other." ~ John Adams
Uppity_peasant
Posts: 3107
Incept: 2009-06-26

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@ Psquared:

As I have been detailing over in General, there's been a moderate recovery in the Southeast, and around Washington, DC.

However, for reasons I can't figure out, most of the states that make up the major portion of the economy (the top 5 are almost 40%) are tanking when it comes to personal income. I can't believe that people are going under the table, because we're talking billions of dollars.

As we get closer to summer and the rollover of most of the state fiscal years, things will become clearer.

BTW - the BLS is lying its socks off about "new jobs", and so clouds the picture even more. Phony "new jobs" help politicians of BOTH parties, believe it or not. But you can't lie about your state income tax revenues....

Another funny thing is that people are buying like drunken sailors, because even in the states that are down in income, sales tax collections are UP.

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If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?
Hstella
Posts: 284
Incept: 2009-08-18
Gold
Colorado
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Rafter: how do you think it will balance out for multifamily? On the one hand you have younger people needing to rent for a much longer time period before they can buy even a starter home, and needing to stay somewhat mobile to be able to chase jobs. On the other hand those same people will have lower wages on average and their discretionary income will be lower after paying their exorbitant student loan payments.
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