The NBA Market
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-19 16:08
by Karl Denninger
in Blogtalk
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This is beyond silly, but we need to talk about it, along with what else is likely to happen.  Join us for a lively conversation touching on the market and politics!

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Dakine2004
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Go Knicks...!
Ramthebulls
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Sorry in advance for the really stupid question. Doesn't Japan have a nuclear program for power generation (or at least it used to) with no intention of creating nuclear weapons?

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Genesis
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Japan wants dual use too - and has it.

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Widgeon
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Japan can probably assemble several nukes (few dozen?) within 48 hours.


Edit; Germany too.



Ramthebulls
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I know Japan is a de facto nuclear-armed power since it likely has the capability to generate a nuke probably within a year if it really wanted one. That said, I don't think they have produced any nuclear weapons or stopped agreeing to the non-proliferation treaty that would allow them to create said weapons. I definitely could be wrong though.

Actually, now that I think about it, Canada has a large nuclear power industry and no nuclear weapons as well, right?

What is your definition of dual use, maybe I am misunderstanding the concept.

EDIT: Widgeon: Germany has use of shared US nukes, so no need to build their own.

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Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give.

Widgeon
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Karl, I know you're sensitive on this and I mostly take the other side ... so, if you choose not to respond it's no big deal. However, at one point in the cast you said "... creating debt that can will never be repaid" ... and then you made your point about all the money being backed by debt - thus, "no printing." I get that. Nonetheless, the question stands for all, if the debt will never be repaid ... how does that differ from printing? To me, it's indistinguishable.

Isn't the critical part the intent to repay - or at least cease accruing new indebtedness?

This is really a central point to many threads on TF.

Genesis
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Any nation, at this point and in fact since the 1960s, that uses a uranium-plutonium fuel cycle by definition wants to be able to, and is producing the material necessarily to rapidly (within a few days, weeks or months) assemble nuclear weapons.

The dangers that come with the operation of PWR and BWR plants, which cannot be avoided as they are inherent in the use of water as an integrated moderator and coolant, along with both the nuclear waste and thermodynamic inefficiencies that must be absorbed when you use that path, might be excusable if there was no other fuel cycle that would work for commercial power production.

But there is.

This decision was made here and has been made in every other nation for one and only one reason -- the nations involved want nuclear weapons capability.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ramthebulls
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Alright, thanks for that Karl, I understand where you are coming from. Has the thorium alternative been in commercial production anywhere? I know there is a lot of research and penny stock-type companies in the field, but I could understand a country's reluctance to choose a process with a small track record in comparison with conventional nuclear.

Just to be clear, I do agree with you that Iran would like to have a nuclear weapon.

But I can see the argument for a peaceful nation like Canada, for example, still picking conventional nuclear over thorium due to the longer operational history.

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Genesis
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Canada: Chalk River.

'nuff said.

The bottom line is that there is a lot of R&D that goes into a nation choosing a path for this. The infrastructure is non-trivial and not limited to the plants producing power.

The reason the fuel cycle that has been chosen to date is selected is the ability to obtain dual use and thus cost-shift to a meaningful degree onto the private sector some of the militarization development, whether used or not at that instant in time.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Ramthebulls
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Quote:
The reason the fuel cycle that has been chosen to date is selected is the ability to obtain dual use and thus cost-shift to a meaningful degree onto the private sector some of the militarization development, whether used or not at that instant in time.


I think that was what I was missing. Thanks for laying it out. I would guess that a fair number of the folks on the libertarian side of the equation that show no concern about nuclear proliferation have overlooked this nuance as well.

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Genesis
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The point here is that you don't take the operational risks without purpose. Once you have operated any sort of uranium fuel cycle nuclear plant for any material amount of time you have enough material to make weapons, and it's easily separable too.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Asimov
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Rumor has it that japan already produced the weapons and the pits and keeps them stored separately. The 48 hour timeline was for real.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Stonedog
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Karl - damn! Just listened to today's blogtalk and you were seriously on fire....

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Jb350
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This mad raving bloodthirsty warmongering is the same thing I experienced back in 2002. It's like a mass viral infection. There is no reason behind it. There is no logic. Dont pretend like there is any rationality to it. War is the script, war is what is prescribed for the people, and the people eat it up. Meanwhile, over 50000 veterans have died from suicide alone. 500,000+ dead from gulf war I related illness. A million american families torn up. A million dead iraqis, conservatively. Realistically, its 4 million dead and an equal amount whose lives are ruined and who utterly hate this country.

Tell me how that is worse than a nuke going off somewhere. Oh you just do the math on that. The rich get richer either way. And either way, I have to listen to this warmongering garbage being spewed by minions of the CFR and wall street. Enjoy the hell you make for youself and your country. But dont pretend like you're against war.
Dakine2004
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Quote:
Meanwhile, over 50000 veterans have died from suicide alone. 500,000+ dead from gulf war I related illness.


Seems like I'd know a few...
Digitalcolony
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Seems to be an issue with the archives. Today's show and all the shows from 2012 are missing from the BlogTalkRadio site.

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Without wage inflation this bubble is gonna burst. - Cgbgjr
Digitalcolony
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Looks like it is fixed. Today's show is up as well the 2012 archives.

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Without wage inflation this bubble is gonna burst. - Cgbgjr
Bagbalm
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I'm amazed grown people don't know that politicians lie, or how they lie.
The country that has no nuclear weapons likely has them sitting there but not 'assembled'. You put the final inspection plate in place - torque down four flat head Allen screws and it is 'assembled' ready to go. The masters of bull**** don't have to lie. They just express the truth differently than the rest of us.
Natew
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JB350, Uh, where you getting those numbers? Looked up the first one alone and you seem to have more than doubled the counts I could find.

Granted this is a tragedy and I think we are failing our service men and women on MANY aspects but I have to call BS on numbers you posted which hurts your argument.
Jstanley01
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Your description of the leverage Cisco used against its customers is classic. That's the business model for a plurality of American firms by now, not just the banksters and the politicos. "How to donkey-**** your customers without really trying."

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Genesis
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Oh yeah it was classic all right. They had us (and everyone else) by the balls, and while I doubt they planned it that way they sure did exploit it.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Abn0rmal
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Jstanley01 wrote..
Your description of the leverage Cisco used against its customers is classic. That's the business model for a plurality of American firms by now, not just the banksters and the politicos. "How to donkey-**** your customers without really trying."
There were two parts to that example - that Cisco managed to demand high prices based on the superior capabilities of their products and how those margins acted as a massive incentive for competition to come in and bring prices down.
Genesis
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Well, there was some circumstance there too.

The original machines that built the core and second-level (multi-homed) attachments for the commercial Internet (the AGS+ series) had Motorola processors on them and a kinda-funky VME bus as the backplane. This limited their memory capacity.

The MC processor was relatively slow but they had fast switching then so it was capable of board-to-board transport without the processor being (much) involved. They were very competent and stable devices and worked very well.

What was a problem was storage for the BGP route table.

When memory was exhausted the BGP table reset and you were ****ed.

Nobody else -- but CISCO -- had a router that could handle a BIGGER table and also spoke BGP competently. CISCO did -- the 7xxx series. It was a forced upgrade, basically, and you either bought it, dropped your multiple attachments to the Internet (making you a leaf rather than a truly redundant provider) or went out of business.

Nice for them. Bad for everyone else.

But it didn't last. That forced upgrade left a lot of people sore, and it also attracted competition hungry to capitalize on the bad blood and outsized margins CISCO was getting for their core equipment. And capitalize they did.

It took a few years, but it happened.

CISCO still makes very competent routers, but they're no longer the only game in town. As for their stock price it never saw $80 again, and currently is around $20.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Abn0rmal
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So basically the free market worked. Cisco enjoyed the benefit of outsized profits for having the right product at the right time but only until competition brought prices back down again.

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