On Iran And Nukes
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-19 13:37
by Karl Denninger
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On Iran And Nukes
 

Folks, if you don't think Iran has made nuclear weapons, and is fully-capable of detonating at least a crude one at this point, you're nuts.

Additionally, if you think their intent is not to have dual-use nuclear technology you're dumber than a box of rocks.  And unfortunately, most of America is dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to this subject, and you've been intentionally kept dumb.

I'll attempt education here -- and urge you to fact-check all of what I have to say.  Draw your own conclusions from that point, but don't be a lemming on this -- it's important.

America and indeed most of the world think of nuclear power in terms of uranium and plutonium fueled water (or liquid sodium) cooled reactors.  The former are used to make power, the latter are used for formal "breeding" of fuel.  The US nuclear industry attempted to run a liquid sodium power reactor at Fermi I in Monroe MI but the attempt nearly ended in disaster when it melted down (due to some foolish cost-related issues that had nothing to do with the viability of the basic design -- it's solid.)

We think of nuclear power this way because it's all we've seen in the public eye.  Power reactors typically have about 5% fissile material in the fuel.  The rest is other things, mostly U-238, a non-fissile material, and various binders and other other materials to make an oxide-based fuel that is essentially a ceramic.

This is very inefficient way to burn nuclear fuel.  Since the fuel contains only 5% fissile material only about 5% of it is consumed.  The rest is bombarded and, over time, turns into other things.  Some of them are very high-level radioactive waste products that are dangerous for thousands or even tens of thousands of years.

But one of the things that U-238 turns into is Plutonium.

Plutonium is an excellent bomb-making material, as is highly-enriched uranium.  It is difficult to separate enough fissile uranium to make a bomb, because it is chemically the same as the sort of uranium that won't detonate.  But plutonium is a different matter -- it can be chemically separated and thus is much easier to extract.

In addition traditional water-cooled reactors have a lot of engineering issues.  Water is not a particularly friendly thing to use for coolant at high temperatures, because it has to be kept under enormous pressure or it instantly flash-boils to steam.  The essential purpose of using water in a reactor is not only for cooling but to moderate the reaction -- fast neutrons are very inefficient at causing fission, so you need to slow them down.  The water does that, in combination with carefully-engineered arrangements of the fuel so the distance the neutrons travels in the water is likely to produce the desired energy when the next impact takes place.  But if you lose the ability to remove the heat in the water fast enough, say through a loss of power, or if the integrity of the pipes is lost then you have an instant disaster on your hands as the fuel will melt without coolant, as happened in Fukushima.

Now all of this would be just a nasty coincidence -- that is, that producing power always came with proliferation risk for nuclear weapons and risks of meltdown and similar engineering problems -- if it was true that there was only one viable nuclear fuel cycle.

The problem is that there is in fact another viable nuclear fuel cycle.  Thorium.

Thorium itself is not fissile; it is fertile.  What that means is that when you bombard thorium with neutrons it becomes a fissile element - in this case, the isotope of uranium 233.

This fuel cycle has several characteristics that are very different from the one we have dotting our landscape for power production both here and abroad:

  • It is very efficient on a comparative basis.  That is, a relatively-large percentage of the time a thorium atom's product (U-233) captures a neutron it turns into fuel as opposed to toxic radioactive waste.   The result is much shorter-lived radioactive waste products.

  • The actual fuel is undesirable compared to U-235 for nuclear weapons.  U-233 has a habit of "fizzing", or going off "too quickly" when put into a bomb.  This can be overcome but it's difficult (and thus it's simply easier if you want bombs to use either U-235 or plutonium.)

  • This fuel cycle produces relatively small amounts of excess fuel. That is, it "breeds" at a rate that exceeds the fuel used to start up the reactor, but not by a huge amount.  This too makes it more difficult to use such a fuel cycle for weapons, since you need a lot of reactors to make a few bombs, as opposed to a few reactors to make a lot of bombs.

  • The fuel it produces is contaminated with U-232.  This is a very undesirable contaminant as it has a relatively short half-life and emits very high-energy gamma rays along its decay chain.  As such in order to use the product for weapons you have to remove this isotope in heavily-shielded facilities through isotopic separation or you bomb kills anyone who tries to work on it (such as, for example, to mount it on a missile or load it in a plane.)  Isotopic separation is what Iran (and others) are doing now with centrifuges but unlike with U-235 separation you can't allow anyone near the equipment due to the gamma emissions, which makes maintenance and operation a royal bitch.  It's much simpler to just separate out U-235 from natural ore if you want bombs.  But U-232 is just fine inside the reactor.

  • We can run such a reactor with a liquid salt as both coolant and carrier for the dissolved fuel, having the moderator fixed in the reaction vessel, instead of using water as a coolant and moderator.  This has a number of advantages, with one of the biggest ones being that you don't need high-pressure systems any more and the meltdown risk disappears. It also operates at a higher temperature, which is good for thermodynamic efficiency. This is not a panacea as there are material engineering challenges to liquid-salt designs, but we proved that this basic design works -- and is intrinsically safe -- during the 1950s and 60s at Oak Ridge with an operating unit.

So what's going on here, in total?

Simple: Since the 1960s there has been little to no legitimate argument for using a uranium-plutonium fuel cycle for nuclear power production unless you want dual use.

Yes, that includes here, that includes Japan, that includes Europe, and.... it includes Iran.

Iran wants at least the ability to produce bombs, if it doesn't already have them, just like everyone else who has pursued nuclear technologies.

All these nations want "nuclear energy", in point of fact -- both of the sort that releases that energy nice and slow for power production, and of the sort that releases it very rapidly for extremely destructive use.

And that's a fact.

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Cheyenne
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Nice entry, thanks. Keep plugging this stuff until people open their eyes...

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Richardebel
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Pakistan already has nukes, and we're not threatening to destroy their facilities. Yet we find it necessary to impose sanctions on Iran and threaten to destroy their facilities. At this point, Iran has not been proven to be a viable nuclear threat, other than their capability of eventually becoming one. The real threat at this time is a nuclear exchange between the US and her allies with Russia, Pakistan, and others. That is more scary to me.
Huntly
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Savannah
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Just wondering what the point is? I would hope that most intelligent people assume that Iran is pursuing something that can be weaponized, but so what. As much as people in punditland like to trumpet it, I do not believe that they are suicidal to the point of setting off a bomb or giving it to a terrorist org. Why do they not have a right to defend themselves against what they perceive as threats?
Genesis
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That's a separate question.

The argument often made is that they want the capability for purely-peaceful purposes.

Bull****. Nobody has built a reactor using the uranium fuel cycle since the 1960s for purely peaceful purposes.

Nobody.

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Crzymorse
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Karl,

Here's one to add to the Beaver Cleaver I'm sorry I got caught commiting fraudlent acts with no repercussions except a fine. Same Enron traders different company I suppose. And I though deregulation, fostered increased competition that decreases prices (bull****)


http://news.yahoo.com/ferc-warns-power-n....



Fraudster
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Huntly your point, and do we really want to start another very expensive (disasterous) military venture when we are already in the midst of a (what will eventually be catastrophic) debt crisis? Is Iran a threat? Maybe. Do I think that the military option is in any way practical at this point in time? In my opinion, no.

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Marvinmartian
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According to official US intelligence source, Iran has not yet decided to make nuclear weapons.

However, by having the enrichment technology, they make pit (the bomb core) production very easy.

Nuclear power reactors have a tremendous dis-advantage to create Pu for bomb sources: their high flux generates isotops of Pu that have a high spontaneous fission rate. This prevents optimum implosion in a fission weapon; the spontaneous fissions start the chain reaction much sooner than the designed-in neutron source.

Plutonium production reactors have a much lower neutron flux, and generate much less Pu240 and higher isotopes of plutonium than civilian power reactors.

So, Iran may be claiming their enrichment is for power production, but as a byproduct their enrichment process gets them strategic nuclear material that they would not otherwise get by reprocessing spent power reactor fuel.

In short, Karl, I agree with your thesis on Iran. I've just embellished it with some plausible technical reasons why it is so.
Dakine2004
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I'm nuts...
Bagbalm
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I suppose that the reason people fear Iran is their mouths. If they were not constantly babbling threats like a deranged person perhaps others would be less afraid of them having such weapons. Name any other country with nukes that constantly vows to rain death on their neighbors...One other , North Korea. I realize that in both cases there is a cultural bias toward talking big. Threatening murder pro forma may come back and bite you on the butt. I have no sympathy. Say little, and mean what you say fool.
Mckinnemon
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Gen, have to been to the US Dept. of Energy price lists?
http://www.nbl.doe.gov/htm/lists/uranium....

Is there a profit in depleted uranium and other sales?
Themortgagedude
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I'm dumber than a box of rocks.

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Harrisonact
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Karl,

Quote:
Bull****. Nobody has built a reactor using the uranium fuel cycle since the 1960s for purely peaceful purposes.


We have. What others have done with our tech is not our doing.

But we stand alone using uranium for peaceful/medical purposes.

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bilge
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Genesis
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Harrison: bull****.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
N9lhm
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?????? How have we used our power generating reactors for non-peaceful purposes?

I'm admittedly rusty on this, but I thought breeder reactors were the only ones that made plutonium as part of the reaction process, and that was why the USSR was the only ones using them. But you all will tell me if I'm wrong :)

Rjsasko
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Years ago if we had known about the Khan network and Pakistan's nuclear bomb program you're damned right we would have gone in there and either seized it or bombed it into rubble. Only fools think Pakistan's weapons are even remotely secure at this point. As it was Cheney outright threatened Musharef with war and we went in there and put trigger locks and other safety measures on their weapons.

As for the Iranian government ask yourself a few questions before pronouncing yourself an expert on what they would do and that they only want them for security. They are floating on a pool of oil and just burning off a ****load of natural gas but they import their gasoline because they need refineries. Would you make the world happy, play nice, and get refineries for your national security (economic and military)? Or would you spend billions of dollars you do not have investing in a nuke program while you have all of that oil while the rest of the world places sanctions on you for that nuke program and your economy tanks and your inflation rate is in the double digits? They want weapons. And they have said repeatedly that they will use them as soon as they get them against the Big and Little Satan. Guess who those two are?

Besides, their True Believers think that buy launching Armeggedon they are hastening the return of the Hidden Imam (who is living in a well in Qom) who will transport them all to Paradise where they will all get 72 virgins to deflower. No doubt six year old ones just like their Prophet Mohammed's favorite wife Aisha. I'm sure they will bring their dolls on their Honeymoon just like she did. Do not for one minute assume that the Iranian government is rational.
Marvinmartian
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N9lhn wrote..
I'm admittedly rusty on this, but I thought breeder reactors were the only ones that made plutonium as part of the reaction process ...


Wikipedia wrote..
Neutrons from the fission of uranium-235 are captured by uranium-238 nuclei to form uranium-239; a beta decay converts a neutron into a proton to form Np-239 (half-life 2.36 days) and another beta decay forms plutonium-239.


This reaction happens inside all reactors fueled with uranium. Breeder reactors are designed to produce more fissionable material from U238 than they consume.

Whats interesting is that there is a company, "terrapower" that wants to exploit this in a big way for power production to consume all the uranium in its fuel source.

Source:
http://www.intellectualventures.com/OurI....
Bjonsson
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Quote:
They want weapons. And they have said repeatedly that they will use them as soon as they get them against the Big and Little Satan.

Myth.

http://americanforeignpolicy.org/iran-ke....

http://militantlibertarian.org/2012/02/1....

I don't deny that Iran seems to be making defacto steps towards a nuclear weapon infrastructure. I agree with KD, it seems pretty clear to me that they are. How far along this process they are, or how far along they intend to go... I don't know. But they have made the "first steps" in this direction.

However, this claim that once they get a nuke, they intend to immediately unleash it against Israel or the US is myth.

Joint Chiefs Chairman Dempsey "Iran is a rational actor"
http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/0....

Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan - Iran is a "rational" actor, preemptive attack on Iran would be "stupid"
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/03/12/fo....
Pheenix11
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I don't doubt for a second that Iran wants nuclear weapons or has them already.

My question is this, what moral high ground does the United States have to dictate who can and can't have nuclear weapons?

That's like the government saying police and military can have guns but average citizens cannot.

Skip_danger
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>Folks, if you don't think Iran has made nuclear weapons, and is fully-capable of detonating at least a crude one at this point, you're nuts.<

I certainly wouldn't blame them if they had nukes. Look how fast Iraq got wiped out. The Iranians would want to put up a little better fight.,
Lipdorn
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I agree that the uranium cycle is more prevalent due to it being ideally suited to manufacturing the fissile material for nuclear bombs. However, due to this it is also the only design that was sold on the market. Smaller countries do not have the resources to fund thorium research and development, so they buy uranium cycle power plants.

Since the west started the Iranian Bushr reactor, and the Soviets/Russia finished it, and because it is uranium cycle, it makes sense for Iran to use the uranium cycle. I mean, the chinese could cheaply provide them with the latest schematics for western 4th generation plants, and they already have one.

Given the hostilities against it, right or wrong, it also makes sense that they would want to secure their own fuel supplies.

It just happens to be very convenient that the power plant and the enrichment facilities can be used to generate weapons grade material. As Karl has stated this is why the uranium cycle is so prevalent. Blame the US, USSR, France, UK and China for this. Had they developed thorium cycle LFTR plants, we could, without a shadow of a doubt, have said that in choosing uranium cycle plants, Iran wants to have a nuclear bomb.

Now they can justify their actions somewhat economically and by pointing out the hypocrisies of the nuclear nations.
Iamedwardteach
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Special Atomic Demolition Munition
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A country with a .5 trillion GDP can have lots of Nuke’s if they want them.



http://www.brookings.edu/projects/archiv....
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/....

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/feature....

http://www.homelandsecurityssi.com/news/....

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Gantww
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I wish I could find that graphic showing the locations of American military bases in the gulf, particularly those that surround Iran. Trying to look at it from their side, I can totally see why they would be afraid we're going to try to invade them. They are pretty much encircled right now.

Also look at how we treat petty tyrants with nukes versus those without them. We put up with Kim Jong Il for years because he had nukes. We put up with Pakistan hiding bin Laden for years, they had nukes. Whereas some two bit bastard like Saddam just got rolled. And they can't even trust us, you know good and well that we encouraged the action that recently happened in Libya. We're happy to throw our friends under the bus.

I can see how from their perspective that they are making the only choice left to them. I'm no lover of Islam, but crap, we've gotta stop cornering other nations and then getting mad because they react as if they were cornered.
Bertdilbert
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Quote:
Folks, if you don't think Iran has made nuclear weapons, and is fully-capable of detonating at least a crude one at this point, you're nuts.

Additionally, if you think their intent is not to have dual-use nuclear technology you're dumber than a box of rocks. And unfortunately, most of America is dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to this subject, and you've been intentionally kept dumb.


Both US and Israel intelligence state that Iran does not have nukes and do not intend to build one. I suppose I could go out and buy a bunch of Coleman lantern mantles and wrap them around a firecracker and state I have a nuke weapon.

I would be interested how you have better information than US and Israel intelligence.

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Genesis
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The very fact that they are using a uranium fuel cycle is proof of intent on dual use.

Period.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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