Turn Off CNBS Today (Apple)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-19 09:41
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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Turn Off CNBS Today (Apple)
 

The NBA (Nothing but Apple) market is "on fire" once again -- both up and down.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) plans to pay a dividend and buy back $10 billion of its stock, returning some of its $97.6 billion in cash and investments to shareholders.

Investors will receive a quarterly dividend of $2.65 a share starting in the period beginning July 1, Cupertino, California-based Apple said today in a statement. The buybacks will begin in the fiscal year starting Sept. 30 and will take place over three years, the company said.

Two things are wrong with this announcement:

  • The "press conference" was hastily-called over the weekend.  Why not announce this during the investor's shin-dig?  Simple -- they didn't need to until the weekend.

  • Buying back stock at an all-time high?  Again, does that make sense?  No, it does not unless you have to.

So what's going on here?  That's simple -- Friday I saw a tweet from "SamsClub" that got re-tweeted a bunch.  What did it say?

 by genesis

What's the bottom line here?  Sales were soft.

Remember, Apple knows immediately when a device is activated, as you have to connect it through iTunes.  As a result they know exactly how many were sold and put into use literally on a minute-by-minute basis

The only reason to call such a hasty press conference and take actions like this is that sales figures were well off expectations.

As for buying back stock at an all-time high that one is simple too -- it's how corporate America makes sure that their executives get their option "paydays" while destroying shareholder value for everyone else.

This may not be the absolute top in Apple but the flag is up the pole and it has "beware" written all over it.

Disclosure: No position as of this writing; that could change rather quickly though.  On a technical basis this is a classic parabolic blow-off pattern and is reminding me more and more of March..... 2000.

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User Info Turn Off CNBS Today (Apple) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Jubber
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Apple (AAPL) says had record weekend new iPad sales

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Genesis
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Jub: Bull****. When the original unit and the "2" version came out you couldn't find one for months.

They were literally available everywhere this time.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Digitlman
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Gen: playing Devil's Advocate here: do you suppose they learned from the last 2 launches and substantially increased the number of ipads available on launch day? That might account for "plenty of inventory".

edit: changed "would" to "might".


And yes mayor - turn off CNBC every day!

Mayorquimby
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I'm guessing weak to very weak.

Oh and turn off CNBS every day!

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Gold is theft.
Jslique
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It only came out this weekend so it has to be a record.
Jonesapple10
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According to Sullivan, Apple could be a "trillion dollar company", so I feel better.
Aztrader
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Genesis
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Dig: No, Apple doesn't DO that. They like the hype of lines and sold-out signs. They fill demand fast but just slowly enough to keep you salivating.

Basic marketing 101.

The last thing you want to see on a product launch is nobody queued to buy one. That's what you saw around here and outside of a few places (such as NYC) that's what I'm hearing on a national basis as well.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Nomullet
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Harrisonact
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Love to short these ****s back to sub $10/share. They lived there once, they'll return to those roots. I just can't time it.

edit: Unless their next product is the idick. plug the interface up your ass and **** away with the idick
feeling the same sensations of a real dick then all bets are off.

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.

Lucky1
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fwiw, Kim Komando (national Saturday night tech talk-radio call in show) gave it a 'don't bother':

Paraphrased: The new screen is great, but unless you are an extremely high-use user, I-Pad 2 is just fine. Why would you pay another $600 if you just spent $600 recently on the iPad 2. Also; intimated that the name "the new iPad" versus, say "iPad 3" was a bit slimy - iow, if you don't have 'the New iPad", you obviously have an 'old iPad'.

I see her as a tech cheerleader, so it was odd to hear her gently trashing it.

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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)

Reason: typo
Jata1
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"Love to short these ****s back to sub $10/share. They lived there once, they'll return to those roots. I just can't time it.

edit: Unless their next product is the idick. plug the interface up your ass and **** away with the idick
feeling the same sensations of a real dick then all bets are off."

They can call it Icramer


Eireannx
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Noticed the same thing in .au. Nobody ran our of stock and the few fans that preordered spent the day waiting for couriers while anyone else who wanted one could pick one up from anywhere. Nobody seemed to be out of stock of any model or any colour, and I never saw a crowd or a queue anywhere.
Otiswild
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iOS 5 doesn't need to tether to a PC or Mac's iTunes any longer, though if you want to buy apps you have to sign up with the iTunes Store. Let's see what the next corporate report looks like before making too many gleeful apocalyptic assumptions, I would bet a pint of Guinness that Apple sells more iPads than all other Android tablets combined thru the next couple quarters or further..

But until then, I guess
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smiley
Bagbalm
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I went out to breakfast the morning of the launch and saw a costumed barker on the curb waving a big sign and yelling at cars to come in and buy the new iPad. That same stretch has guys with signs pitching tax prep and gold buyers.

That was enough to make me decide that if they had not jumped the shark they were at least ballistic and aimed to clear it.

My friends, who are mostly writers and IT people mock me and say I'm nuts that Apple is swimming in money. It isn't how much they have - it's direction. Is there another easy $100 billion out there to rake in? Nope. Gets harder now.

Are they capable of a radical new product like iGlasses or something? I doubt it. Very few companies can change direction radically. Look at Kodak. A big company is hostile to big ideas. They take resources away from the structure that is there. GM could not sustain Saturn with all the other divisions sticking a knife in their back.
Mayorquimby
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Don't get too excited Apple haters - many ipad 1 users will upgrade over time and Apple has more momentum than some countries right now. $10 a share? Not likely.

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Mayorquimby
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OTOH - This 'aint good!

Quote:
Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook promised on Monday to periodically review the company's dividend and share repurchase plans but his priority remains product innovation.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Genesis
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Heh heh.....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Digitlman
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Gen: OK. Thought it might be along those lines, but you never know.
Mayorquimby
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Anyone think sales were under 2 mil?

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Trades50
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Quote:
The only reason to call such a hasty press conference and take actions like this is that sales figures were well off expectations.


Excellent catch!

Apple has to keep those consumption spirits going. When your looking to sell the best thing you can do is say their going fast, better hurry and get yours before their gone.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Themortgagedude
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I've got the iPad 2. mrsmortgage has a kindle. She wants an iPad. I've told her a hundred times if she wants an iPad she can trade me.

I like both products - I just think the Kindle is ok for what I use it for. I see no reason for me to upgrade the iPad until battery becomes a problem. We're 9 months in now and it seems to work like new so I'm hoping it's 4 or 5 years of use before it's time for a new tablet.

What I'm hoping for next time is a tablet device the size of the Kindle which will also act as my phone. What I'd love to see is something like that with bluetooth headset.

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Fraudster
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Quote:
What I'm hoping for next time is a tablet device the size of the Kindle which will also act as my phone. What I'd love to see is something like that with bluetooth headset.


TMD - Here you go.

http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/15/atand....

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Ktrosper
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Gen wrote..
Turn Off CNBS Today...

Sometimes I turn it on, just so I can turn it off!

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D

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