Paul Krugman, Jackass
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-12 17:21
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Paul Krugman, Jackass
 

I'm tired of this crap, frankly, but people keep spamming me with it, so here we go.

And that’s a tale that needs telling. For the past two years, the Greek story has, as one recent paper on economic policy put it, been “interpreted as a parable of the risks of fiscal profligacy.” Not a day goes by without some politician or pundit intoning, with the air of a man conveying great wisdom, that we must slash government spending right away or find ourselves turning into Greece, Greece I tell you. 

....

Germany and the European Central Bank could take action to make that extreme step less necessary, both by demanding less austerity and doing more to boost the European economy as a whole. But the main point is that America does have an alternative: we have our own currency, and we can borrow long-term at historically low interest rates, so we don’t need to enter a downward spiral of austerity and economic contraction.       

So it is time to stop invoking Greece as a cautionary tale about the dangers of deficits; from an American point of view, Greece should instead be seen as a cautionary tale about the dangers of trying to reduce deficits too quickly, while the economy is still deeply depressed. (And yes, despite some better news lately, our economy is still deeply depressed.)       

Bull.

And this isn't a difference of opinion.  We're all entitled to our opinions.

We're not entitled to make up our own set of facts.

Here are the facts relating to "more borrowing" to "stimulate the economy" and thus "grow GDP."

FACT: Over the last 30 years Krugman's prescription has never worked.

NOT ONCE.

The facts are that on a historical basis borrowing always produces less GDP growth than debt growth.  That is, it is a net negative as you must both pay back the debt some day and pay the interest, which means that in order for it to "work" GDP must expand by more than the debt does, so the interest can be covered along with the principal.

But NEVER did GDP exceed new debt, even for one quarter, at any time during the 1980-2007 time period and the only time you saw that happen during the collapse of 07-08 was when debt defaults pushed outstanding down faster than GDP declined -- a temporary condition as you can see we have resumed our sin.

Read this again:

Not once has "stimulus" actually produced an increase in GDP that exceeds the new debt taken on to prove it.

NOT ONCE.

This is not my opinion or someone else's opinion.  It is mathematical fact as documented by both the Federal Reserve and the government's GDP numbers.

Krugman has the same access to these numbers as everyone else.  He can thus trivially verify that this is true, if he bothers to look.  My sources are listed in the chart.

This cannot, therefore, be an innocent error.

Krugman's policy prescription is wrong.  It is wrong on the facts, it is wrong on the mathematics and it is empirically, with more than 30 years of history, wrong in terms of realized results.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Paul Krugman, Jackass in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mayorquimby
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Anyone who is annoyed by this bs now,,,,just wait until AFTER everything blows up and the same people are claiming the same nonsense (should have spent even MORE money we never had or ever would have had etc etc etc!).

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Djloche
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Back in 2007, I put forth that those in power (Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke, etc.) were either extremely ignorant/blind/stupid or extremely criminal.

Sufficient evidence to eliminate the first possibility has since removed doubt from my mind.

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"If we wish to be free, we must fight! I repeat it, sir, we must fight! An appeal to arms and to the God of Hosts is all that is left us! Gentlemen may cry, "Peace! Peace!" -- but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle?"
Steelhead23
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Ever read one of Dr. Krugman's paper's? Actually, he is pretty good with mathematics. The problem is not math, the problem is that you are applying empirical data to a theoretical problem. My point is that economic facts tend to disagree with economic theories - Yves Smith wrote a book about it. Also, it is my understanding (mostly from reading blogs) that in Keynes General Theory of Money, he "discussed" limits on using debt to resolve demand losses caused by pessimism, but never proposed a clear limit. Krugman, like other modern Keynesians, seems to have missed that discussion. I tend to believe that were he alive today, JMK would not recognize what passes for Keynesianism. I also suspect that Mr. Keynes was quite a bit sharper than Mr. Krugman.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
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Jduwaldt
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I think it was in the late 1950s that Keynes observed that one of the big problems with his theory was that constituents would form around the deficit spending programs necessary to deal with the immediate crisis and prevent their termination once the crisis was past.

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Platawn
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JDUWALDT: Keynes died in 1946. I assume you meant late 1930's?
Darth
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Quote:
Keynes observed that one of the big problems with his theory was that constituents would form around the deficit spending programs


He totally hit the nail on the head there! Now, there are 'constituents' for constituents, and market/economic distortions on top of distortions that are on top of other distortions. It's all practically out of control at this point!

In November the best options we would have come up with is a choice between 0bama and Mittens Romney.... WTF?!?!?!
Drb
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When Bush was in power, Krugman was railing against deficit spending.
When Obama is in power, he is all for deficit spending.
http://townhall.com/columnists/larryelde....

When Bush was in power, Obama was against deficit spending.
When Obama is in power, Obama runs deficits.
http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/24/fl....

I think at this point, any intellectual consistency from these gentlemen can not be expected and anyone who would spend one second listening to them could be considered out of his mind. The question is, do they believe crap they are spouting or not?
Bjonsson
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Keynes' theory on active fiscal policy is that it should be counter-cyclical. During times of contraction, the government cuts taxes and increases spending. BUT, during times of expansion, the government increases taxes and decreases spending. In other words, a true "Keynesian" government fiscal policy would indeed be to run deficits during a recession, but during times of growth, the government was supposed to run surpluses.

And therein lies an embedded problem with Keynesianism. Politicians wouldn't let a government run a surplus... they'd find a way to spend it. They only claim to become "Keynesian" when times are tough.

I, personally, don't like Keynes because inherently distrust government's judgement of what the "equilibrium" point might be between growth and recession, and when faced with a recession, I distrust government's judgement in terms of how the deficit spending should be deployed. As we see with Solyndra, they'll probably tend to spend it to further political objectives as opposed to spending it with any sense of maximizing economic utility.
Genesis
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Theres also the fact that in 1920/21 we had a deflationary depression (a REALLY bad one) and The Fed raised rates while Congress balanced the budget!

The result? The economy recovered and within 18 months we were back to full employment having posted a never-bested gain in industrial production.

Look it up.

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Raftermanfmj
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Quote:
This cannot, therefore, be an innocent error.


Pretty obvious by now it is, in fact, intentional. The propaganda machine ramps to fool the proles, and extend the con.

The question is, what it the real endgame; is it a planned outcome or is it really just kick the can 'til detonation?

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Blegoo
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Krugman can't loose the argument:
"Spend more, we'll be out of the hole!"
"How much?"
... crickets...

Problem with Krugman solution... it's an open ended one, no limit, not even the Moon's orbit.

In theory, it should work.
In reality... it's another discussion.

Flyingillini
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Wow, just wow. The guy is a POS.
Atlasrocked
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It like he saw a head on collision and blamed the bumpers for the damage.
Enapa
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The problem is we are 5 years on from the start of the collapse and life for americans hasnt materially been affected. Yes food and fuel are expensive and a lot of people have lost jobs and homes. But american idol and survivor are still on and the internet and smart phones are still all readily available. Until that changes it doesnt matter what any of us say because it wont change anything. The problem is when all the bread and circuses are gone its too late....
Bertdilbert
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Quote:
That is, it is a net negative as you must both pay back the debt some day and pay the interest, which means that in order for it to "work" GDP must expand by more than the debt does, so the interest can be covered along with the principal.


False!

We can do a Greece and since the Fed owns a bulk of the debt, they would be the primary determinator in a collective action clause. If the Fed agreed to a penny, that is what everybody gets. Heh heh...

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Djloche
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Bertdilbert: when someone stiffs you of a few bucks, you write the debt and make sure never to loan to them again.

when someone stiffs you of a few million/billion/trillion... you declare war and invade.

that's what is unspoken.

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"If we wish to be free, we must fight! I repeat it, sir, we must fight! An appeal to arms and to the God of Hosts is all that is left us! Gentlemen may cry, "Peace! Peace!" -- but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle?"
Bsfootprint
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Genesis wrote..
Paul Krugman, Jackass
Tautology! (/sarc)
Quote:
Krugman has the same access to these numbers as everyone else. He can thus trivially verify that this is true, if he bothers to look. My sources are listed in the chart.

This cannot, therefore, be an innocent error.
I suspect the truth is irrelevant, and what matters to Krugman is that his words continue to grant him access to the cool peoples' cocktail parties, etc.
Rush, Subdivisions wrote..
In the high school halls
In the shopping malls
Conform or be cast out

In the basement bars
In the backs of cars
Be cool or be cast out

He probably got dumped in a lot of "C" hall garbage cans in high school.

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...

Peterm99
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Bsfootprint wrote..
Genesis wrote..
Paul Krugman, Jackass
Tautology! (/sarc)
FIFY !!!

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Frat
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I thought he was just being insanely redundant with the word choice there Peter! smiley

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Bsfootprint
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@Frat, @peterm:
I was trying to not insult our host, as it was meant to be funny, not a criticism. I prefer to err on the side of clarity...
smileysmiley
smileysmiley

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...
Rickl
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Krugman is certifiably insane. He has "crazy eyes".

Who was it that put up that demotivator showing Krugman walking down a street full of burning cars with a caption reading, "I'm tired to trying to explain things to you people!" I'd love to see that again.

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Crzymorse
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Krugman is the human cum catcher for the Obama administration, the beard leaves no doubt. The Nobel prize was for being a liberal not an economist. I also think the debt has to be written down as a bad investment first and austerity comes second. When the rich invest their money (knowingly or blindly) into a losing investment such giving loans to unemployed people to buy houses, they need to lose their money. Austerity without a debt write down (and only a small fraction is actually being haircut).
Bsfootprint
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Rickl wrote..
Who was it that put up that demotivator showing Krugman walking down a street full of burning cars with a caption reading, "I'm tired to trying to explain things to you people!" I'd love to see that again.
inline
http://www.inquisitr.com/143501/economic....

Quote:
When Bush was in power, Krugman was railing against deficit spending.
When Obama is in power, he is all for deficit spending.

When Bush was in power, Obama was against deficit spending.
When Obama is in power, Obama runs deficits.
Message to Krugman and Obama (and indeed, most politicians and economists...) inline

there goes my posting quota... sigh.

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...

Azengrcat
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What does Krugman know about creating economic growth?

Money printing did not invent the transistor.
Money printing did not invent the combustion engine.
Money printing did not discover penicillin
Money printing did not invent the light bulb.
Money printing did not split the atom.

Krugman is a child with a calculator and a numerology certificate.
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