"Tea Party" Tilts At Windmills (Again)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-12 07:45
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Government
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"Tea Party" Tilts At Windmills (Again)
 

Things that make you smiley in the morning....

Members of the Senate Tea Party Caucus on Thursday announed a plan to balance the budget in five years, cutting spending by nearly $11 trillion compared to President Obama’s budget.

The plan, dubbed “A Platform to Revitalize America,” is a wish list of conservative policies, none of which have any chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate or being signed into law by a liberal Democratic president.

You have to laugh, really, given the last sentence in that quote.  Of course it's true, but it shouldn't be.

The problem is once again the reliance on "growth" to achieve the numbers "within five years."  The growth will not happen because as soon as you cut the budget the spending comes off dollar-for-dollar against GDP, and that in turn means that "growth" goes negative and so does tax receipts.

This means that the only way such a plan, no matter who's it is, can possibly "work" is if it's "all at once."  That is, you must slash the spending immediately and in one chop, accept that GDP will fall (a lot), accept that tax receipts will plunge (a lot), and at the same time put into place policies that (1) tie tax receipts to the economy as a whole, unlike the current system, (2) drop "handout" assistance to bare subsistence minimums (in other words, "three hots and a cot", and yes, I know this would be extremely unpopular with the public), (3) reform trade policy so that wage and environmental arbitrage is eliminated as a corporate strategy and (4) fix the energy paradigm on a durable basis so the foundation for economic growth exists to foster recovery.

The lawmakers said they would turn Medicare into a premium support plan that would give seniors the same healthcare plan as members of Congress. They say this would save an estimated $1 trillion over 10 years.

“What we’re doing is telling seniors that you can have the same plan that congressmen and senators have,” DeMint said. “They get the same premium support that we do.”

Doesn't matter.  Unless you fix medicine by outlawing (under penalty of imprisonment) forced cost-shifting in all of its forms (which is, in fact, theft -- no matter how you care to "spin" it) there is no solution to the Medicare problem.  This will inevitably mean facing the fact that we have promised our Seniors things most of them cannot have.

In other words, politicians lied.

The proposal would fund Medicaid, the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, food stamps and child nutrition programs through block grants.

That simply tosses the shortfalls onto the states and says "find ways to become more efficient if you can, but if you can't then you eat the blame for it." 

This is probably a good thing, in that the closer a particular program is to the people it serves the better the odds that the best-obtainable efficiency can be recognized.  However, it leads one to ask where the federal government obtained the authority to do any of the above things -- and Medicare, for that matter.

The Constitution certainly doesn't contain the required authority.

It would also permit construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, and implement broad tax reform by establishing a 17 percent flat tax for individuals and corporations.

What does the pipeline have to do with budget reform?  Nothing, of course, but it's red meat in an election year.  It also does nothing for long-term energy sustainability -- for that we need a real nuclear program, and as I have repeatedly pointed out the path forward is, in my view, found in thorium.

"Broad tax reform" sounds good on the surface, but unless that 17% flat tax literally includes shredding the entire tax code so that there are no deductions or credits there is not a snowball's chance in Hell that it would be anything approaching revenue neutral with what we have today.

This is, incidentally, the reason I like The Fair Tax -- it is a hell of a lot harder to hide special giveaways and games when you're assessing a consumption tax, and it is also much easier to avoid it through entirely-lawful behavior through thrift, which in turn results in capital formation.

The latter, incidentally, is the necessary predicate for true economic growth.

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User Info "Tea Party" Tilts At Windmills (Again) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Northeaster
Posts: 68
Incept: 2011-05-13

Massachusetts
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Ironic isn't it?

We know what we have to do to ensure our future, but politicians don't do it. I'm guessing politicians are just so beyond corrupt that it really doesn't matter what "we" say, its been like that for far too long. I'm fairly active up here, and have only received a real response from my Rep. (Sen. Brown) once on an obscure issue, the rest send form letters.

My regional paper gives me a fairly good platform up here (I Source all my material, including yours Karl ;) )

http://www.eagletribune.com/opinion/x426....

Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be enough of "us" to make the impact necessary, as the drones just tune into whatever they are told through the media. I'll keep plugging away locally up here Karl here in The Peoples Republic of Massachusetts, good luck to all of us.

/Two Cents

Sources (from letter):
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-301
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43027
http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy1111.pdf
Genesis
Posts: 130658
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Thanks.....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Crzymorse
Posts: 1182
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Notice the spin by the republicians, don't fall for it. They are great at introducing bills that have no chance of passing and then claim to be fiscally reponsible. But when they have the actual opportunity to do something like the debt ceiling fiasco they cave and then cave again. And what happened to those alleged automatic cuts, seems like they disappeared someway. Maybe Demint should find that legislation instead of proffering up another rabbit and hat charade.
Jymm
Posts: 71
Incept: 2012-01-22

Wisconsin
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"In other words, politicians lied." The more I study the issue the more I agree with the "Fair Tax" as a consumption tax. The 17% with no deductions just shifts more on the middle class. Revenue sharing, where the government takes our money, spends 60% of it on administration and sends the rest to a different state is one of the biggest causes of the problem. Again the politicians lied. Now they want to keep the revenue sharing money they stole from the states and make the states liable for the shortfall. Have you noticed most states are broke too? The game has to end! The only way for transparency is a consumption tax. You can manage your own tax bill on what you decide to consume.

Remember, Republicans are just Democrats that are lying to you.
Be smart, be a Libertarian.
Jymm
Posts: 71
Incept: 2012-01-22

Wisconsin
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Sorry I forgot to include this link. It is a pretty good discussion on tax reform.

From Minyanville
Zeroing in on the 'Fair Tax' Concept: What You Need to Know
By John Mauldin

http://www.minyanville.com/business-news....

Don't Tax You, Don't Tax Me
Tax that Man Behind the Tree!
– Senator Russell Long, Democrat Louisiana (1918-2003)




Mannfm11
Posts: 3530
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Northeaster, I read your eagletribune post. Good stuff. I took the time to back you up on a question about what you were smoking on the $700 trillion derivatives position. I put up the most recent Bank of International Settlements data. Maybe the idiot will be open minded enough to find out what he don't know. If not, maybe another scoffer will look. If this type stuff sinks into the minds of the average Joe, we might get somewhere. These banks are kamikazi pilots aimed at the face of the Matterhorn. Total disintegration when it blows.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Quads4444
Posts: 1628
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Green
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Can someone help me understand how congressmen and senators making $174,000 a year 'need' gov't 'premium support' with their healthcare premiums?

Amusing how the Teaparty/Repubs who advocate smaller govt don't propose ending Gov't support to lawmakers for healthcare .... but instead propose a massive expansion of this ill-advised program to all seniors.
Mannfm11
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Karl, I don't know that true GDP would decline as much as government spending, because there would be more resources left for the private side of the equation. I thought at one time, this problem could be rescued, until I learned better. My faith in the dollar has been in its function in debt. It appears the powers to be are intent on the worst debtors, the financial sector, finishing stealing what is left before they run the whole thing off a cliff. What little chance we might have had to make adjustments has been gone since Barack the Greek and his nihilistic henchmen stepped on the gas and put us beyond the boundary of no return. I think you said we needed to make plans for this going off the cliff. It is going and I don't believe as I did before that Bernanke is going to even give us an opportunity to pick up any deals on the way out. All these people might as well be a tribe of ants on a log in the Mississippi talking about where they are going to steer this thing.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11
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DFW, Tx
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Quads, $174K is a low income in DC. The average Fed worker earns over $100K a year when benefits are included. I would venture those in DC earn the top end of that scale. This is why we will never see this group fix things. I'm not sure some of these guys could maintain their wardrobe on $174K.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Peterm99
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Mannfm11 wrote..
. . . there would be more resources left for the private side of the equation.


It seems to me that reduction in gov't spending that only zeroed out the deficit would NOT result in more resources left for the private side of the equation. Only if the spending reduction resulted in a surplus which was returned via tax reductions (or better yet, not collected) would the private sector have more to spend.

Of course, since so much of the "private sector" depends on gov't spending for its existence, I expect that any private sector gains would be overshadowed for at least several years by private sector losses due to the gov't spending reductions.

That's how I've interpreted Karl's projection of a large drop in GDP as a result of the required spending cuts. (Admittedly, my interpretation may not be correct.)

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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If the velocity of money really is negative in the US, you would have MORE money available in the market for every dollar cut from government spending. This means the GDP reduction from reduced government spending is less than 1-1.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

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Peterm99
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86thebs wrote..
. . . you would have MORE money available in the market for every dollar cut from government spending.
Only if you assume that the private sector would borrow the same amount of money that the gov't stopped borrowing.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Eighty6thebs
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True...which if they have any sense at all, they would never do. Are you advocating forced borrowing lol? Kidding.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Peter - I think the idea is that if the government didn't borrow it that it would have to be allocated somewhere else. That may or may not be the case.

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Dsinfuego
Posts: 6
Incept: 2012-01-25

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Quote:
However, it leads one to ask where the federal government obtained the authority to do any of the above things -- and Medicare, for that matter.


That is a great question. Completely irrelevant in today's "living, breathing, constitution" world, but a great question.

Quote:
This is, incidentally, the reason I like The Fair Tax...


Doesn't this lead to the same question, where the congress gets the authority for a consumption (national sales) tax?

There are only 2 taxes specified in the constitution; direct and excise. A consumption tax clearly isn't a direct tax, so that leaves the power to impose an excise tax, which naturally leads to the question, what is an excise tax?

I don't now about your state, but our state constitution affirms that the people have the inalienable right to acquire (buy) and dispose of (sell) property. Since an excise tax is a tax imposed on the exercise of a government privilege (excise tax is synonymous with privilege tax), the "fair tax" clearly can't be imposed on "the people of the several states" buying and selling things; that's a natural right we all have that can't be taxed by excise. Imposing a tax on the inalienable right of selling your property is as repugnant to the constitution (and liberty in general) as imposing an excise tax on hugging your children.

So, with that, which class of "person" will be subject to the "fair tax"?

This is the reason the "Fair Tax" will never be. The Supreme Court has been very clear on the issue of excise taxes. An excise tax imposed on "we the people" for exercising an inalienable right will, without any doubt, be ruled unconstitutional.

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John has a long mustache. The chair is against the wall.
Widgeon
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Whatever one thinks of the Tea Party ... the group elected to CONgress had their chance and rolled over just like the others. Out w/ them all.
Bsfootprint
Posts: 960
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Dsinfuego wrote..
Imposing a tax on the inalienable right of selling your property is as repugnant to the constitution (and liberty in general) as imposing an excise tax on hugging your children.
Couldn't agree more.
But: How is a tax on the fair market value of a person's productive labors (A.K.A. the income tax, social security tax, etc.) any less repugnant or less a violation of an inalienable right?

Your time and your productive labor are yours to do with as you please (or... are we indentured servants or partial slaves?)

Once cannot (legally) labor without a SSN, and making oneself "subject" to income and SS (among other) taxes. Frankly, I can't see any moral or legal distinction, regardless of the existence of the 16th amendment supposedly making it all nice and official.

Quote:
This is the reason the "Fair Tax" will never be. The Supreme Court has been very clear on the issue of excise taxes. An excise tax imposed on "we the people" for exercising an inalienable right will, without any doubt, be ruled unconstitutional.
And how is the free exchange of labor for fair compensation (fair being an amount agreed upon by buyer and seller voluntarily, without coercion or fraud) not an inalienable right?

Why is it an inalienable right to sell a chair I made, and is my property (and in effect exchanging money for my labors, which are also my property), but it's not an inalienable right for me to work for someone else making a chair, exchanging compensation (money) for my labors?

Taxing people for engaging in any activity seems odious and repugnant to me; I'm just trying to understand the distinction you raised, and really, trying to understand why supposedly free people tolerate the income tax (...well, I think I understand, it's sold as a way to soak the rich, but in reality, cumulatively it soaks the J6Ps to a much greater extent...)

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Mrbill
Posts: 7840
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Gold
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Bs: I read Dsinfuego's post (welcome, btw, first post!) with an implied disdain for the income tax already, not an acceptance of it. That assumes Dsinfuego's position is that the income tax isn't "direct" or "excise" either, but I won't put words in his/her mouth.

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