Greece: Are You READY?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-03-06 11:58
by Karl Denninger
in International
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Greece: Are You READY?
 

Now we're in for it.

Reports are filtering in that the PSI (read: the private bondholders who are agreeing to take a haircut) is a miserable 20% or thereabouts of the outstanding debt.

That's nowhere near enough to invoke the "collective action clauses" (read: force everyone else to eat it) as it appears the private creditors have bought CDS and prefer to take their chances on being able to collect on that "insurance."

We may be within days of finding out if the CDS can in fact be paid.

My guess is that the answer is "Yes", since the amount involved here is relatively small.  However, that's not the problem.

Let's assume that Greece fails to get their "PSI" and thus hard-defaults.  The correct thing for them to do in this instance is to default all externally-held bonds at minimum (and maybe all of them, external or not.)

Why should Portugal, Ireland or Italy pay if Greece can erect the middle finger?

Oh yeah, we didn't think about that, did we?

Actually, I suspect Germany and the ECB did think about exactly that, which is why the "Troika" has been trying like hell to avoid this outcome.  But it appears that there is no reason for the Greeks to avoid it at this point, nor any reason for the creditors to do so.

I have held since the beginning of this mess that Greece was going to default -- it was inevitable.  I will add that it is inevitable that if The United States does not immediately -- not in five years, not in ten, not in fifteen, but now -- balance its budget and cut the deficit spending to zero we will inevitably default as well.

Governments can and will play games with obfuscation and outright lies for a very long time.  But eventually, irrespective of those lies, the mathematical facts come to the fore and make resolution impossible.  The only avoidance of this outcome is to take the necessary steps before you get that far into the soup while it is still possible to make difficult-but-not-fatal choices.

We are quickly running out of time in America and Europe appears to be the trigger that will force our hand.  This does not surprise me; the only surprise is that we've managed to get away with our obfuscation and lies for as long as we have.

Time's up!

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User Info Greece: Are You READY? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Swingtrader
Posts: 9108
Incept: 2007-08-12
Green
United Oligarchic Goldman Sachs States of America
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Slow-motion train wreck.

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Swing said "Well, it is collapsing as we watch.This is what it looks like." Australian federal judge Jayne Jagot, doing what US judges need to do!
Trades50
Posts: 4214
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Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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What types of stick-saves will Bernanke, the Fed and ECB come up with? It's election time.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Ramthebulls
Posts: 10849
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Gold A True American Patriot!
Queens, NY
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Is there a better source for that 20% figure than the Slog?

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Umbrage is like love. No matter how much someone takes, there's always more for you to give.

Inkt2002
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Its over folks
Anti
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Silver
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Quote:
But it appears that there is no reason for the Greeks to avoid it at this point,


Except that Greece has a bankster puppet PM.


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Checkthisout
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Tickercon 1 in 4,3,2....

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Truthseeker
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NorCal
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Who could have seen THIS coming??? smiley

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Landshark
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I am so shocked... shocked, I tell you.

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Trades50
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Quote:
Its over folks


I'll believe it when the rest of the PIIGS default and when the market starts raising interest rates on the US. This might be the spark. So far the central banks have been able to avert financial disaster while deficits keep climbing.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Truthseeker
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NorCal
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As Karl is fond of pointing out, "the math never lies".

Expect a big smiley followed by the famous "told ya" very shortly.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Checkthisout
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Cary, NC
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And with everything in lock-step, leveraged to the hilt, if it falls, it ALL falls & there won't be a 'flight to safety'. Safety is cash.

Dow
12,767.06
-195.75
-1.51%

Nasdaq
2,906.72
-43.76
-1.48%

S&P 500
1,343.49
-20.84
-1.53%

EUR/USD
1.3109
-0.0106
-0.80%

10-Year Bond
1.934
-0.071
-3.54%

Gold
1,669.00
-34.90
-2.05%

Oil
104.57
-2.15
-2.01%

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There are no gun free zones where free men tread.
Savingsaretheway
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Spain is probably the next one to watch. Its 10 yr yield has remained range bound in 2012, but there has been some volatility there.



Regarding today's market reaction, can anyone explain why the Yen, not the dollar, has been behaving like the world reserve currency every time there is extreme fear over Europe? It's something I've observed since last Summer.

Landshark
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Yep, looks like a definite face-plant in the markets. Rally time.

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Success in life is a matter not so much of talent and opportunity as of concentration and perseverance.

– C. W. Wendte
Curious1
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Oregon
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This is nowhere close to being "over".

They won't give up that easily.

It will be over when interest rates rise and that could be years away. They need to put more at risk and make many more mistakes before this is over. This is just the prelude to the foreward which is before the introduction and well before chapter 1. They will do some even crazier and stupid stuff before its "over". Don't underestimate their arrogance, greed, and stupidity.
Margincalltime
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NJ
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Gen- Then if you expect the US to default on this path, then why do you insist on holding cash as your primary wealth preservation vehicle? Just curious.
4geez
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Florida
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What Curious1 said.
Muscleknight
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Columbia, SC
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If this collapses like I think it will, cash won't be worth anything either.

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Truthseeker
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At some point that well may be true, Muscle. Which is why for the past six years we've consistently recommended the acquisition of tools, materials, and basic skills. THAT investment will deliver in a "collapse". And if said collapse never happens, you have useful stuff. No downside.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Cjworkman
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if even 1 large bank is overexposed to Greek CDS, we could start a derivitive rube golberg machine.

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Curbyourrisk
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Time is indeed UP.

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Tank
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Yes, it will start a heard mentality. Why would a government face the wrath of its people via austerity when Greece gets away with defaulting?

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"A danger foreseen is half avoided." -Thomas Fuller (1608-1661)
Mannfm11
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swingtrader wrote..
Slow-motion train wreck


No, we are merely watching the skid down the hill for now. When the wreck happens, the cars will pile up fast. For one, the ECB has done two LTRO's for about $1.3 trillion. Second, they have propped the debt of Italy, Spain and Portugal by buying it in the secondary market and by making these loans. In doing so, they have made their claims superior to those of the private sector, meaning if you get caught with debt in these countries, you are going to bear all the negotiated loss. The ECB has filled up with junk.

Here is a rub on this topic I read last night. In so many words, the Euro is toast. What the LTRO is doing is giving the banks of the various countries the money to buy the debt of their own country. Thus, the refunded debt is being moved off the books of the banks that created the mess in the first place and put on the balance sheets of the banks in the countries that are going broke. Remember, all paper is make believe, especially sovereign debt, the purpose of which is merely to redistribute income to banks. Thus, once the vast majority of the Italian debt is out of the French banks and on the balance sheets of the Italian banks, Italy can pull out of the Euro and merely change the symbol of their debts. Ditto Spain and maybe Ireland. The ECB can cancel the fictional loans they made, keep the collateral and go on. Pretty smooth trick if it works. Bankers +1, People, -1000

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Bangkokian
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Bangkok
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You had me until "Times up!", Karl.

It was overwhelmingly obvious that the Soviet Union was ****ed early in the game. But anyone waiting for the collapse was likely pushing up daisies by the time it happened.

"The end is nigh" makes for good rabble-rowsing, but it's seldom correct -- until of course it is. But you seem to be calling that time, here and now.

Unlikely.

Mannfm11
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Tank, I believe Greece has to attempt to stay in the Euro. I don't believe a Greek money would have any purchasing power outside of Greece any greater than if it was on a toilet paper roll. I believe it was Mauldin who posted something a guy he knows wrote on this subject and I agree pretty much on what the guy said was the solution. Greece is going to have to find a way to hold onto their Euros and dollars or they have no means of adjustment, as they aren't self sufficient at this time in food and other important commodities and have little to export other than tourism. I would have to believe a country that is in civil war or people are starving wouldn't be much of a tourist attraction, though I think there is a nice resort or 2 on Haiti.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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