Durable Goods: COLLAPSE!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-28 08:37
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Durable Goods: COLLAPSE!
 

YIKES!

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $8.6 billion or 4.0 percent to $206.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 3.2 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.5 percent.

OUCH.

This number is just plain bad.

There's no spin available here that works folks.  Among new order categories primary metals were off 6.7% and machinery was in outright collapse (down 10.4% and shipments off 5.7%!), with computer orders off 10.1% and shipments off 7%.  Communications gear was flat.

This had better be a one-off, although I suspect it is not.  The expiration of the 100% expensing on capital goods is likely responsible for this shift, and shows exactly how ugly that "pull forward" really was last year.  It is entirely possible that this was the only thing holding up durable goods orders, and if so I hope everyone's ready for the impact when this filters through into people's GDP estimates and, of course, actual economic results.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Randy123
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Gotta pay for gas. So I won't be buying that plane.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Fraudster
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Silver
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Where is Zara with that monkey?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Jmanng
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This definitely calls for the rally monkey.



Avianphlu
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Ulster NY
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CTRL - P for the win
Otiswild
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(Removed)

Reason: Causes problems for some users..
Zarathustra
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Funkytown
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inline

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"And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates

Resistance
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All .gov numbers are suspect. Use at your own risk.

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"Why must political experiments always be in the direction of more government? Why not give the free market a county or even a state or two, and see what it can accomplish?"Murray Rothbard - The Fallacy of the Public Sector
Uppity_peasant
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It's going to be fascinating watching the numbers games from now till the election.

The monthly revenue reports for New Jersey (7th largest state in population, and 8th in GDP) have suddenly gone into eclipse since we got the December 2011 numbers more than a month ago.

I don't expect them to give us an update till the middle of April.

But at least we have New Jersey's "chief economist", Dr. Charles "Baghdad Bob" Steindel to tell us all is well, from the national reports (February 27, 2012)...:


http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/economic....

Quote:
Despite a dearth of fresh data on the state's economy in recent weeks, two regional surveys suggest that economic activity in the area is growing...


Charlie-Bob is referring to the surveys done by FRB/NY & FRB/Philadelphia.

Quote:
...There is a shortage of fresh statistical data on the New Jersey economy at the moment because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and our Department of Labor won't be releasing January numbers until early March, several weeks later than normal...


addendum: So, I looked up "Dr. Charles Steindel", and it turns out that he was/is "Senior Vice President, Research and Statistics Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York" in addition to being chief economist for NJ.

Part of his job responsibilities at FRB/NY?:

Quote:
He oversees the Research Support Function and the Group's day-to-day analysis of U.S. economic conditions.


Their computers are slow? **snicker**

http://www.whartondc.com/article.html?ai....

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====
If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?

Reason: addendum on Charlie-Bob
Mortgageguymn
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They probably thought that pulling forward demand would improve psychology and improve much-vaunted "demand" in the economy, just like they thought that homebuyer tax credits would cause home prices to ascend. Case- Shiller says otherwise.

Ideas like clearing bad debt, removing artificial temporary stimuli and living within our means don't even enter into the thought process of politicians of both parties.
Mortgageguymn
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http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=....

Uppity's signature with the Obama quote on the stimulative effect of the payroll tax cut reminds me that yesterday FHA announced that the cost of mortgage insurance is going up by 10 basis points per year. So home buyers borrowing $200,000 will pay an extra $16.67 per month for years in order to help pay for the cost of two months' tax holiday - the two months that end today. Hope you guys put your extra stimulus to good use.

Not surprisingly, on FHA loans with terms > 15 years (the vast majority) there is little change in the cost of mortgage insurance, whether putting down 3.5%, 5%, 10%, or 15%. Apparently they don't want consumers to put money down on a house when they could buy more I-pad apps and stimulate "aggregate demand".
Gates
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Scottsdale
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Yeah and it might have worked but that damn debt saturation thing keeps popping up, that, coupled with little access to heloc type credit and the result is... FAIL
2dogs
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Uppity_peasant wrote..
It's going to be fascinating watching the numbers games from now till the election.
Yep, Obama's going to have to pull another rabbit out of his ass. The expiration of the 100% expensing on capital goods exposed it as the ugly 'pull forward' trick it actually was.

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You can't defeat the combined effects of massive voter fraud, the Free **** Army, and the entire bought and paid for media complex. This nation is done.
Eaglewwit
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And the market cares, NOT.

Remember people all bad news is always priced in, but all news of new Greek bailout plans of plans is to be treated as uber bullish.

Carry On.

Jmanng
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Durable goods are historically very volatile because because it includes commercial aircraft and industrial equipment.

The market will brush this off.
Eaglewwit
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It clearly has.
Genesis
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Jm: That's why I exclude aircraft AND defense.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ohiojon7
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I work in a small machine shop (less than 30 workers). At the end of last year the owner bought a machine. 400K. He said he could either pay 170K in taxes or use that money for a machine. The install guy said he had installed more machines in the last 6 months than in the previous 5 years. Either pent up demand or pulled forward demand, but either way a big drop off is predictable.

Reason: bad typing
Genesis
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If anyone gets that blue screen thing it's a rogue ad. While it's there go to the source display on your browser, copy it and PM me the contents.

I'll find it and skull**** the creator.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Randy123
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Is that like a rogue wave?

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New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Genesis
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Yeah, I can find it and block it, but it helps a lot if I have a URL or other content internally...

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Antone
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I have the source from the blue screen. Tried to PM you, but got a bad URL error.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Genesis
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Source doesn't help. I'll chase this from a different place.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Randy123
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The spin on Bloomy is that this was all pulled ahead from Dec do to depreciation. I think we'll need to see the next few months to get a better view.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Genesis
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Yes, that's definitely part of it -- I noted it in the release.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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