Uh, Truth From The UK?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-27 07:46
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Uh, Truth From The UK?
 

Hmmm..... did someone replace the fried brain of a few people over in Britain?

In a stark warning ahead of next month’s Budget, the Chancellor said there was   little the Coalition could do to stimulate the economy.

Mr Osborne made it clear that due to the parlous state of the public finances   the best hope for economic growth was to encourage businesses to flourish   and hire more workers.

“The British Government has run out of money because all the money was spent   in the good years,” the Chancellor said. “The money and the investment and   the jobs need to come from the private sector.”

Uh, wait a second.... Britain is a currency issuer as well.  This means it can "print", just as can the US (by borrowing more and more from people.)

Someone, it appears, has figured out that this doesn't work because "printing" (e.g. borrowing more and then possibly QEing it) simply acts as a tax upon the poeople, and therefore is exactly identical in terms of its effect on the economy as doing what no politician wants to say out loud -- raising taxes.

See, it's simple folks when you start looking at the world (and its component parts) as a balance sheet. 

Let's assume you have $10,000 a year in income.  The government taxes 20% of that, so now you have $8,000.

Let us now assume that the government "prints" a 10% deficit -- that is, it borrows (whether it QEs or not) 10% of GDP.

What happens?

The denominator in the number of units of currency that circulates in the economy, which must be definition be exactly equal to GDP, is increased by 10%.  This means that every unit of currency buys 10% less.

The "ugly" is that this is called "inflation" but it isn't necessarily in prices, because (1) it's temporary (borrowing has to be repaid) and (2) much worse, the interest due on that debt comes out when the debt is paid back too!

In other words what everyone looks for is changes in price level.  But you don't care about the price level -- you care about what goods and services you can buy with your income.  The impact of deficit spending can show up in a whole host of ways -- it can depress wages or it can increase prices, to name just two.

Both are exactly the same from your perspective and both are exactly identical in the impact on your life as if the government raised your taxes.  And make no mistake -- it is the government that caused all of these effects, and as such not only is the effect the same as a tax increase the responsible party is the same too!

This morning Buffett is again on CNBC prattling on about "raise taxes on the very rich" and similar.  The problem is that raising taxes on the very rich, as I have repeatedly pointed out, will do exactly nothing because the rich simply don't have enough money.  He also said "cut the budget" but then, just now, also said we had to maintain spending for schools and medical care for those who got the "short straws."

Buffett is well-aware that it is not possible to do all of these things.  We have made promises we cannot keep -- period.  We have promised people neonatal-to-grave medical care irrespective of the personal culpability related to their medical condition.  We have promised an attempt at equality of outcome in the educational system rather than equality of opportunity -- an impossibility that bears primary responsibility for the ridiculous ramp in educational cost.  We have willfully and intentionally ignored the facts of geometric progression found in union pay and pension scales along with government entitlements, all of which are impossible to maintain.  And we have offshored an insane amount of our manufacturing in search of "cheaper" for us and "more profit" for our corporations without regard to the fact that someone has to buy those goods you produce and without the money to do so the so-called "profits" are ethereal as they can be maintained only so long as your debt-fueled Ponzi lasts.

But Buffett continues to advocate this crap, as he has continually since the collapse of 2008 began while CNBS continues to hand him a microphone and refuses to call him on the flat-out impossibility of what he is advocating.

In short, there's no indication that truth means a damn thing here, despite the glimmer of truth appearing in the UK's government and recognition that there is no such thing as a Unicorn, and what's coming out of the back end of that thing are not candies.

Will we wake up here in the United States?

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User Info Uh, Truth From The UK? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Scottbeard
Posts: 31
Incept: 2010-01-05

UK
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As a UK resident, I'm pleased with the approach our government is taking - and the fact that so far most of the people seem to back them.

My worry is that, as the population see their standard of living drop, they will blame this government (instead of the previous ones) for it, and vote back in a party promising hamburgers today with no plan for Tuesday...
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
Online
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Oh come on Karl -- next thing that you'll be telling me is that the Founders didn't fight the Revolutionary War to establish an American bankster oligarchy [/sarcasm]

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"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Crzymorse
Posts: 1190
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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How bout writing down some debt as well as raising taxes. All I see are tax cuts and austerity. I don't see a fair balance of over levered 1%ers taking their medicine.
Rarnopp
Posts: 892
Incept: 2008-02-26
Gold
London, United Kingdom
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The UK Government's recognition of reality is basically just rhetorical.

The broad trajectory of spending is little changed from what it was under Labour, and the unsustainable burden of debt is actually increasing.

"by their fruits ye shall know them"

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"Things and actions are what they are, and the consequences of them will be what they will be: why then should we desire to be deceived?"
- Bishop Joseph Butler
Firefly76
Posts: 49
Incept: 2011-08-09
Green
Houston TX
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The question is what does Buffett expect to gain from the collapse of the US?
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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Firefly76, sociopaths can't anticipate the consequences of their actions, and even if they could, they lack empathy. So basically he doesn't give a ****.

Sometimes the 1 percent of a given generation are unaware of the consequences right up until the blade of the guillotine is falling.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Jslique
Posts: 466
Incept: 2008-07-28
Silver
Melbourne
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the moment he starts the printing money meme without mentioning the destruction it does i got no respect for him.
Fraudster
Posts: 4174
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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Quote:
Will we wake up here in the United States....


...before it is too late?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Tm22721
Posts: 976
Incept: 2008-01-09
Gold
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Watch what Buffett does, not what he says.

Two years ago he bought a hard asset (railroad) which tells me all I want to know about Warren Buffett.

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The country is terminally ill and IT JUST WANTS A PILL.

The only way up is down.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Quote:
We have made promises we cannot keep -- period.


Therein lies the rub, politicians make promises, then they have to coerce the people into doing the work to make them good or, they just don't get done. In our case though, we went one further, our politicians made promises that we can't keep no matter how hard we try.

Crzy said:
Quote:
How bout writing down some debt as well as raising taxes.

Well maybe not direct writedown, what we need is for our system to function as intended, that means either some defaults on houses and/or bankruptcy. That way both parties take a hit which is what is supposed to happen if I understand our system correctly. The home buyer loses downpayment and takes a credit score ding (credit score is from one view a scam anyway) and the lender has to eat the remainder. If one or both end up BK well that is just tough.

Our system will work and work well if we will just allow it to. What our "leaders" have done is thrown up every roadblock possible to keep it from working.

I think though that the game is about up and "market forces" are about to demonstrate just how powerful they really are. In the end you have to have a cash flow (income) to cover your expenses. You can run on credit (or deficit if you are a government) for some time but eventually time runs out.

Beware the Ides of March.

Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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Sure we'll wake up - the second the market crashes, dogs and cats start living together, and mass hysteria becomes the norm.

Before then? Highly unlikely.

Again, all you can do is personally prepare, align with like-minded people, put aside some extra where possible for those you care about but who won't listen, and most importantly - start learning the skills that might prove useful should (when) the worst occur(s).

That reminds me - time to start clearing the garden plot out and getting some seeds planted indoors.

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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Riiiight...

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Gen_maximus57
Posts: 4580
Incept: 2007-09-03
Green
Tampa
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Quote:
sociopaths can't anticipate the consequences of their actions


Exactly, just like Hitler in his bunker during last days, still thinking a counter-attack would save Berlin.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3544
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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The world has built a lot of pyramids. Pyramids are where someone goes after they die. Money down the drain. Welfare is a pyramid. Subsidized housing is a pyramid. Selindra (sp) is a pyramid. Only the debt remains. When the game collapses, all the labor involved in a pyramid goes away. The whole ****ing Obama administration is about new pyramids to replace the old pyramids and rob us of our wealth. In the meantime, they are shoveling dirt like a cat trying to cover up his **** to keep us from knowing the whole past of government policy has been building pyramids and the actions were actually successful. The FSA is still sitting on their asses and unless the country needs men and women to run off a cliff in a war they are a liability. Warren Buffet likes the FSA, as he is one of them. He merely gets his money in a more indirect manner. Buffet is hoping to keep this thing going until after he dies, so the cat that he was such a special investor isn't proven false.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
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... well, for instance, over the months we've also HEARD alot of the right words from Merkel ... but look what they've actually done. We'll have to watch this too.

Bsfootprint
Posts: 965
Incept: 2011-02-27
Green
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Buffett is merely repaying his benefactors:

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...
Ape_lincoln
Posts: 764
Incept: 2011-08-04

Ron Paul 2012
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"Exactly, just like Hitler in his bunker during last days, still thinking a counter-attack would save Berlin. "


Actually it's debatable. The 12th army made in halfway there and the 9th army linked up. It sort of did for the men caught in the Halbe pocket. Had Wenck and Busse followed directions and went to berlin its possible they could of broken out and rescued hitler and the garrison defending the city. But not save the city, no.

I just watched a show. Very fascination stuff. The last two weeks of WWII was the most amazing time in the history of warfare.

I know you were just comparing. Sorry for the threadjack. I just had to throw that out :)

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