Desperation Level Rising.... Fast...
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-26 13:02
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Desperation Level Rising.... Fast...
 

How's that water Timmy?  Getting a bit warm... and higher up?  On your tippy-toes yet?

The U.S. and Germany sparred about how to tackle Europe’s sovereign debt crisis as a meeting of officials from the world’s biggest economies struggled to break an impasse over outside help for the region.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner used a speech in Mexico City yesterday to urge Europe to step up its actions and render its crisis-fighting commitments “credible.” German Finance Wolfgang Schaeuble rebuffed those calls two hours later, saying a deal struck on Feb. 21 for a second bailout and debt write-down for Greece worth 130 billion euros ($175 billion) demonstrates that Europe is doing enough.

“I dare to say that Europe has done its homework,”Schaeuble said in a speech in the Mexican capital. Tightening bond spreads in the euro region “show that we’re on the right course” while budget cuts and more flexible labor markets and wages are necessary to spur economic growth and bolster the euro in the longer term, he added. “That’s the only way we’ll be able to restore confidence,” he said.

Oh, let's put this all in simple-man's English, shall we?

Germany is laying out the correct course -- albeit without saying it loudly -- that the nations of Europe must only spend what they take in at both government and personal levels.  That is, the mathematical truth that one can only spend what one produces has been recognized.

Geithner, bankster stooge that he is, is on the other side.  He believes that one should simply pretend that various loans and activities that are not "money good" actually are money good through various machinations, schemes and outright scams.

The latter is of course just can-kicking, but doing so comes at an ever-higher price.  Geithner doesn't care about that so long as it doesn't nail our banks and government, and he believes (correctly thus far) that he can shove this off on other people.

Germany aims to rally fellow G-20 nations to find fresh money for the International Monetary Fund that could be used to help defuse the crisis.

Fresh money eh?  Money comes from surplus.  Where are you going to find the economic surplus?  Or are you simply going to try to conjure it out of thin air, thereby debasing currencies and driving up commodity prices even more?

The latter won't work you know.  It hasn't thus far and won't in the future, because it can't.  Everything is a balance sheet, and when you do something like that you're basically taxing the money out of the people by stealth. 

Let me repeat that: The impact of such a move is exactly identical in the "broad view" to instituting a tax on the people in the amount of rescue funds you "create."

The point of such an exercise is simply to increase taxes while lying about it, claiming you're not.  The people are unfortunately not all that smart and often don't figure it out, but they damn well should and the result (if they do) would be to depose the government officials who do so.

But the alternative is equally bad, because telling the truth means you have to tell millions of citizens that you lied to them about what they can have in terms of social spending and such.  This can also lead to you being deposed.

Well, pick one folks, because while both are politically unpalatable the "stealth" approach can easily wind up blowing up the government, since it will continue to make un-fundable political promises right up until the market barfs on the continual new debt issuances necessary.

The fact of the matter is that despite all the arm-waving there is no solution to the European problems, nor ours here in America, until the deficit spending stops.

 

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info Desperation Level Rising.... Fast... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Randy123
Posts: 5770
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It's tax season. Go easy on Timmy.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Ghopper
Posts: 2301
Incept: 2011-06-11

Staten Island, NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Just once I wish that a German official would call out Timmy as someone that's not even capable of properly handling his own taxes.
Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
Green A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Genesis wrote..
Germany is laying out the correct course -- albeit without saying it loudly -- that the nations of Europe must only spend what they take in at both government and personal levels.
One would think that the Germans would say more than that - unless the nations of Europe spend less than they take in the loans they've taken out will never be paid back.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1226
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
We've been in the 'posturing' phase for a few months now. The posturing phase is where those in charge are laying a past history that they can point to when TSHTF and say "look at what I was saying, don't blame this mess on me."

Karl, as usual, is correct. But, this deficit spending won't stop until a crash makes it stop. The current political class is too wedded to it to change course. History is full of examples with diluting the currency, adulterating the metal in coins, reducing the coin weight, etc. to think that we will do otherwise.

We will go thru a period like the 1930's where whoever has guessed correctly will have the means to purchase a lot of valuable real estate and factories for pennies on the dollar.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Bozonian
Posts: 19878
Incept: 2007-09-01
Green
Saratoga Springs, New York
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No we won't. Circumstances are different now. The vast majority of people cannot survive at all without government assistance. If that dries up there will be riots. These people will have nothing left to lose.

----------
Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think you're both correct. Boz is correct but gvmt ultimately has no power so they will push things farther then they did back then but in the end, it is all going down.

----------
They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Jmanng
Posts: 537
Incept: 2009-01-03

Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The adage that you "must spend less than you make" might apply to you and I but I don't know that it applies to governments anymore in the new central bank controlled QE-required 21st century economy.

What I am seeing right now is that the countries that have austerity have higher bond yields than the ones who are not going through it. That tells me investors think austerity makes a country riskier than deficit spending. It may not make sense but it is what it is.

Reason: grammar.
Genesis
Posts: 130686
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
All ponzi schemes appear to post up great numbers right up until they blow.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bagbalm
Posts: 4253
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
To continue deficit spending they will have to convince people that new rules apply and debt really really does not matter. It is counter intuitive to peoples experience. They could try to hide all the numbers for 'National Security' - but at the rate they are going there could be a total black out of information and it wouldn't matter - because they are going to eventually take so much of the GNP that there won't exist enough production left over to keep people fed and clothed and under a roof because the state will be taking too much. It won't just be a bookkeeping problem - there just won't be enough pie to go around.
Wakeupcall
Posts: 4232
Incept: 2009-06-08
Green
Hampton Roads, VA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Who's gonna riot? 300lb tubbys? People on disability because they're depressed? 80 year olds?

The initial die off will probably take care of a great deal of the problem.

----------
“Nothing travels faster than the speed of light, with the possible exception of bad news, which obeys its own special laws.”
Crzymorse
Posts: 1187
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Raise taxes, write down debt and cut spending really not that difficult. The debt write down should be part of the pea eating though. Not really emphasized enough IMHO.
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 1041
Incept: 2009-04-16
Gold
California Desert
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Who's gonna riot? 300lb tubbys? People on disability because they're depressed? 80 year olds?

The initial die off will probably take care of a great deal of the problem.


The point you're missing is that the lions share of the entitlement's that will eat up the capital and / or generating vast debt is going to be consumed by that very group of people before the reset happens.

That's why Gen keeps emphasizing that this **** has to to stop RIGHT ****ING NOW!!!

If I'm wrong Gen, tell me so right away...
Bluebird
Posts: 1381
Incept: 2008-05-02
Silver
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Who's going to riot?
People who are hungry! When these people no longer have food stamps, when the pantries dry up for lack of food, when there are no more slurpies nor BigGulps, then expect these starving people to not only riot but steal and rob from those nearby who do have something/anything to eat. Those who can't riot because of obesity, illness, age, will most likely starve.
When this Ponzi blows, it will be epic.
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 1041
Incept: 2009-04-16
Gold
California Desert
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
sorry crazy, but's that's politically unfeasible. It's the reason why we're not into a workable solution phase. No prosecution of the looting and pol's are still dependent on being re-elected with the funding from Wall Street. I've said before and got scoffed at but it is the only way this changes: the money has to be removed from the political election process in one way or another. It is the only way to break the cycle at this point. It's not going to happen via the current political process in it's current state. Voting will not do any good because the will of the people will be ignored or obfuscated.
Free
Posts: 3242
Incept: 2007-07-28
Green
The world
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Who's gonna riot? 300lb tubbys? People on disability because they're depressed? 80 year olds?


Some posted watching HOOD LIFE Vol 3 the other day.

Quote:
The initial die off will probably take care of a great deal of the problem.


Watching HOOD LIFE, seems they were doing a good job trying to off each other.

----------
"Don't believe everything you hear and only half of what you see."
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1226
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bagbalm I'm with you on this quote:
Quote:
To continue deficit spending they will have to convince people that new rules apply and debt really really does not matter.


That is eerily reminicent of the gold ole dotcom days when "entrepreneurs" were saying its a 'new business model' which went on right until it went BOOM. One of my all time favorite lines was from one of the executives at pets.com he said (I kid you not) "we'd still be in business if we hadn't ran out of money". You really have to file lines like that one under the you-just-can't-make-that-****-up category.

Happy Sunday!

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Jal
Posts: 512
Incept: 2009-03-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The impact of such a move is exactly identical in the "broad view" to instituting a tax on the people in the amount of rescue funds you "create."

Geee!

I like that point of view.

It get to you more than saying inflation.
Captainkidd
Posts: 594
Incept: 2010-05-25
Silver
Pasadena, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bozonian said:
Quote:
No we won't. Circumstances are different now. The vast majority of people cannot survive at all without government assistance. If that dries up there will be riots. These people will have nothing left to lose.

Add to that the people who do work, and provide for themselves, but have no earthly idea what is going on. After several days of the trucks not rolling, and the shelves being empty at the local Ralph's or Kroger, they will be hungry, angry and desperate. They could easily decide it really is Mad Max out there. And if violence that begins in the inner city spills over into the suburbs with home invasions and gang violence coming to quiet neighorborhoods, it could get quite ugly, quite rapidly.


Wakeupcall said:
Quote:
Who's gonna riot? 300lb tubbys? People on disability because they're depressed? 80 year olds?

The initial die off will probably take care of a great deal of the problem.


Who will riot? Hmmm... Let's see....
Remember?
http://www.youtube.com/verify_age?next_u....

edit: that would have looked a lot cooler if I could have figured out how to embed the video player. Someday I will figure it out.

----------
A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford

Reason: Fixed link to video
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1226
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Captain that is nothing that a couple of rounds from ye ole shotgun would not solve.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Captainkidd
Posts: 594
Incept: 2010-05-25
Silver
Pasadena, Texas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Captain that is nothing that a couple of rounds from ye ole shotgun would not solve.


Yep. A couple of rounds with the shotgun, aye.

Luckily, I have a couple of those..... and am pretty proficient with them. smiley

----------
A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
Morla
Posts: 815
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The old "Americans are too fat and lazy to riot" argument ignores every single page of the history book. The survival instinct trumps EVERYTHING, you can fake accounting statements, you can fake budget projections, but you cannot fake a loaf of bread or a gallon of gasoline. When people start having to choose between one or the other the mood in this country is going to change and fast.

I disagree with Bozonian though, those people CAN and WILL survive without the government.. A starving man is a law unto himself and will levy his own "taxes" on those around him until we all starve together or unify to throw out the crooks in D.C.

----------
Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Erica712
Posts: 1910
Incept: 2009-03-16
Green
Central FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Home invasions and gang violence have already arrived at "quiet neighorborhoods."

The cracks are clearly visible if you are looking.
Wakeupcall
Posts: 4232
Incept: 2009-06-08
Green
Hampton Roads, VA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I guess the point I was trying to make was that when I was in the hospital last year & in rehad & going through 3 months of dialysis, I saw alot of old, fat, sick people...If these people didn't have bennies, they would have been dead within weeks. Wipe out half the elderly and sick & that takes care of alot of the problem.

Yep, there were riots in London. I remember riots in this country too...





There are alot more guns in 2012 than in 1992.

Alot more poor people are also physically helpless now.

I just don't see Mad Max. Lots of rioters and criminals will get shot. And they won't have the state to pay for their medical care. And they'll die (or be out of commission for a long time).

If the shtf, you wanna know who should be worried? Farmers. .Gov will be stealing everything not tied downs & using troops to do it.

----------
“Nothing travels faster than the speed of light, with the possible exception of bad news, which obeys its own special laws.”
Luckypenny
Posts: 33
Incept: 2007-11-29
Silver
Michigan
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Good thing we have a print press so this can't happen in the U.S. !!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics....

In a stark warning ahead of next month’s Budget, the Chancellor said there was little the Coalition could do to stimulate the economy.

Mr Osborne made it clear that due to the parlous state of the public finances the best hope for economic growth was to encourage businesses to flourish and hire more workers.

“The British Government has run out of money because all the money was spent in the good years,” the Chancellor said.........
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last