Tickerguy's Missive To The American People: Gas Prices
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-24 15:16
by Karl Denninger
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Tickerguy's Missive To The American People: Gas Prices
 
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Asimov
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Not quite done with it yet, but smiley

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Smacktle
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All Hail Karl Denninger!

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Tinfoil
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Perfect stump speech for the next president. You just have to say it over and over and over... All other issues are side shows and distractions. Let's hope Horton hears the "Who" of truth!
Pietertvl
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NFA
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I have to respectfully disagree with your retort to Pelosi.
I think it IS speculation.
Speculation that the Fed, the ECB, the BOJ and CBs around the globe will continue inflating to fight against the tide. A tide that seems to be rising and coming in more powerfully with each passing hour.
So I think this speculation (which I would call hedging against currency debasement) is quite rational.

So instead of denying Pelosi's point, I would instead suggest she look a bit more deeply into WHY people are speculating in the energy sector (or elsewhere some other day) and selling their dollars and euros and yen, to buy something they might not have a direct need for --- crude, lets say.
Especially at a time when ECRI is telling us (again) that in fact, based on coincident indicators and most leading indicators, the global economy is slowing not ramping. That would explain CB posturing, and rising gas prices are simply the blowback on this occasion.

Somehow, blowback always seems to come, and we then hear all the prattle about unintended and unforeseen consequences. Any fool could have seen this coming in some form ... and if the fools in Washington couldn't, then WE ARE THE FOOLS for continuing to let them run the place.

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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams
Genesis
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That's what I said Pieter. It's not "speculating" though.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Burtoby
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Rock on Captain K

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Tryin' to turn 6 figures into 7.
Stuart
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If people don't realize that it was $150 oil that sent the economy into a tailspin during 2008, they have rocks in their heads.

The bankers are effectively trapped now because either solution leads to a bad outcome. Continue the flooding of the economy with currency and we are back to $150 oil. Stop flooding the economy with currency and the debt bubble crashes.
No way out.

It appears that they will continue to flood the market with currency and try to blame high oil prices on speculators, Iran, etc. This will probably lead to war.

The best solution will always be to renounce the debt as it is all fictionally created. It is only a forced promise to pay which is immoral.
Harrisonact
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canada
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I can't see youtube stuff on my machine. bah.

Talking heads are calling for $1.50/L gas for Canada this spring.

We're ****ed harder when this happens than last time. Have to be. So much has risen 100% since then. Food, other energy. Taxes and fees.

Only people OK might be ones who financed out of 6% mortgages to 2-3% stuff. Probably angry as **** that what they gained with the new finanacing is being stolen outright by price inflation on everything else.

Everyone else, renters and fixed income people are simply going to park their cars. I predict in province vacations will hit an all time low. I'd never consider in province travel when $400/person/week will get me airfare and all inclusive at a decent resort in the south.....

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Peterm99
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Harrisonact -

That "low" airfare won't exist with $150 per barrel petroleum prices that we saw last time.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Snooze
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IMHO... the message is perfect however this is best done in a written format. Save your speaking engagements for a more passionate message delivered off the cuff of your considerable command of the issues.

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Wealth is found in the warmth of the sun, in the coolness of moist soil, in the taste of fresh air, and in the pulse of your heart. Plant a seed and harvest your riches.
Goforbroke
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Quote:
The bankers are effectively trapped now because either solution leads to a bad outcome.
Bad for whom? Not for them. They, in cahoots with the .gov, rake in the $$ on the way up and on the way down. It's the law-abiding, mortgage-paying, budget-keeping non-union-belonging private-sector employed middle class who are being systematically drained. When the bankers are convinced there's no more low-hanging fruit to pick, they'll move on to the next host.

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We have met the enemy and it is us. -- Pogo
Oldpool
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Clear and concise, this is a send to all who doubt what is in plain sight. The ones who will seek to discredit you will call this one political as you mention Still.

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Liberty, Comrade!
Wineaux
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Karl – I like the message and hope that we find a leader who can convince the dumb masses to take the medicine on our terms rather than have it forced upon us. And then I turn on the boob tube and watch Obama, his cohorts, and the current field of Republicans provide just enough fodder to keep the masses clueless and stupid.

I get the impression that the screams from the free market capitalists ring hollow if the consequences impact one’s personal economy. This is not directed at you of course but towards the idea that when all said and done Americans want bailouts. Witness what is going on in Michigan with Romney and his decision to vote against the auto bailout and how this may cause him to lose the state. It’s too early to tell what the final outcome will be but if he loses Michigan it goes a long way in discrediting/harming any politician that speaks the truth remedying the economy.

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What wine goes with unemployment?
Badges
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I agree KD, but it 'taint gonna happen. The food stuffing, TV glued, "news" from HS dropout-blow dried-talking-heads sheeple want to more each day sign up for the FSA. Womb to tomb, Section 8, Freddie/Fran my mortgage and where's my free 6 year degree in Afro-Les-Theater Lighting Environment Studies! ( Oh, and my HIV meds too, 'cause my blood sugar meds are messing with my treatments and the Doctors said I can't have another baby with my new man).

Nope. This is at best a multi generation Mafia like bust out of 300 years of accumulated wealth. Each generation now passes on a bigger tab/debt/ can to kick to the next. As the economy gets more distorted/twisted/perverse, we will get more weirdish politics.
Patentleathershoes
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smiley

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Richard112360
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Quote:
U.S. and Saudi maneuver to contain Iran oil market threat

Saudi Arabia has raised oil exports and the United States is considering releasing crude from its strategic reserves as oil prices surged to nine month high and concerns deepened over Iran's nuclear program on Friday.

The Saudi move comes as the Obama administration studies tapping crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve among possible measures to offset any Iranian supply disruptions, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told CNBC on Friday there may be a case for using the reserve. "Obviously Iran can do a lot of damage to the global economy," Geithner said. "We are working very carefully to try to minimize that risk."


http://news.yahoo.com/geithner-says-u-co....
Harrisonact
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@Peter

It DID though. I mean some of my best deals where when our gas was high, and the higher it got the better the deals got. Bookings dried up. No disposable income when gas is so high. The carriers here had two choices, discount seats like mad or the fleet sits idle.

Airlines who hedged (IIRC Southwest paid avg. of $2/g last year, no link sorry).

I can't see this time being any different.


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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Quik49
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Nice...liked it and am spreading amongst my world...

PS...nice screenset up in the background!

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UVA UVAM VIVENDO VARIA FIT

Onelegged
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Readers' Digest version. Excellent. I think I might even be able to get a few of the people I know to sit still long enough to watch that.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Deathmetalrocker
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Kansas City
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I watched the video a few times because I find the timing funny on increased oil and it feels like to me a diversion as Greece is set to explode and I can't help but wonder if these *******s are just orchestrating a ******n war with Iran to keep everyone's eyes off Greece exploding and everything that goes with that whole scenario...

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Lt. Dan: "You'll never sink this boat!"
Forrest: "Now, me, I was scared, but Lieutenant Dan, he was mad."
Lt. Dan: "Come on! You call this a storm? Blow, you son of a bitch, blow! It's time for a showdown! You and me! I'm right here! Come and get me! Ha ha! You'll never sink this boat!"
Deathmetalrocker
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Wait a minute, I just remembered 3 years ago Karl specifically said this would happen...and it did...and the way I understood it was since oil is traded in dollars primarily as the peg, or whatever, and they pumped so much in the system it has to come out somewhere...and it did...and all that **** in Egypt was going on and so forth...doesn't feel so much like political theatre now...hmmm

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Lt. Dan: "You'll never sink this boat!"
Forrest: "Now, me, I was scared, but Lieutenant Dan, he was mad."
Lt. Dan: "Come on! You call this a storm? Blow, you son of a bitch, blow! It's time for a showdown! You and me! I'm right here! Come and get me! Ha ha! You'll never sink this boat!"
Bsfootprint
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So, Karl, when are you announcing your candidacy? smiley

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...

Peterm99
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Harrisonact -

Didn't most airlines institute fuel-price based ticket surcharges as the fuel prices kept rising? I seem to recall that happening a lot in Europe, especially. Wouldn't they do that again?

And, yes, Southwest made out like a bandit because they got lucky and hedged very well. Somehow, I doubt that can be duplicated in general.

I may be wrong in my opinion, but I just don't see how airline ticket prices will remain low as fuel prices keep rising. It makes sense for airlines (and anyone else) to operate at a net loss only if income exceeds their variable costs of operation. At some point it does make sense for the airline to park the planes (and go out of business) rather than to fly them.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Fisticuffs
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KD - fair to say you are distinguishing speculation from non-speculation here because of what the Fed is doing (i.e. if you know monetization will inflate gas prices then that's where you SHOULD put your money) and will continue to do as well as the need (gas, food, shelter) vs. want (toys) issue?

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B(ern)ank(e)
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