Claims: Flatlined
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-23 09:45
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Claims: Flatlined
 

Looks like we've basically flat-lined on the claims number eh?

In the week ending February 18, the advance figure for   seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average   was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average of   366,000.

Hmmmm.... So what's the big table tell us, if anything?

Nice drop, but a big part of it appears to be people rolling off the end of the EUC program.  That's bad, not good.

All in all it looks pretty neutral from here, and the market basically ignored it.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Claims: Flatlined in forum [Market-Ticker]
Obseedian
Posts: 11872
Incept: 2007-07-26
Silver
BBRY Central
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People rolling off EUC is ultimately a good thing, as it means funemployment is over and they have to go back and take any job, no matter how much they think it is beneath them.

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Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin

Docj
Posts: 999
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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So nobody is finding any new jobs but we're running out of people to lay-off. Swell.

I'm sure that's bullish.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Rentier
Posts: 193
Incept: 2010-06-19

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Wrong, they are rolling off and just filing for disability benefits. "Mental illness" disability claims have skyrocketed.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=2....

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2011-09....

During most recessions/depressions disability claims go down because construction and other jobs of that nature there are less of. But, when everything becomes a scam to avoid work (& govt. facilitating laziness) we have what we face now.

Onelegged
Posts: 267
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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It my not be all that flat. All recipients of EUC in Colorado where notified at the beginning of the month that those benefits would no longer be paid because "By law,.....we have to have had an unemployment rate of at least 6% over the past 3 months." (NOTE: the official print for Colorado unemployment over the three months in question was 8.0%(?)) I digress. Two weeks later these former recipients where informed by a letter from the state that the benefits had been reinstated. Dropping these folks from the rolls for a period of time and then adding them back on undoubtedly made the national employment numbers print better.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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LPR needs to become the headline figure. It tells more than anything else.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3551
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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Yeah, if they flatline for a couple more months, they will be back up to 380K

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mindrayge
Posts: 67
Incept: 2010-09-18

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More people will be falling off EUC quicker because Tier 4 (6 weeks) was eliminated to "pay for" (in DC speak) the extension of Federal EUC in the bill that just passed two weeks ago.

Combine that with the ramp up in gasoline prices and food prices and we should see the economy getting worse as spending declines even further. The last of the stimulus money (there are a few multi-year infrastructure projects) will be gone soon and the drag on the economy from the private sector not stepping up to replace that spending in the economy - they are too busy sloshing trillions around in non-productive speculative "investments" in the shadow economy - will also pull the economy down further. If the private sector doesn't step up to the plate soon the consumers will take the economy over a cliff.
Supertruckertom
Posts: 215
Incept: 2010-11-07
Green
USA
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I car pool with two DOL employees.
There was a huge teleconference Tuesday with the USDOL and all 50 State's DOL.
One described the new law as being similar to throwing a person a life preserver made out of lead.
They are writing the business requirements for the IT Dept.
One has her escape route out of the building already planned.

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What I do is fairly simple.
People need their stuff.
It is my job to get it to them.
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