Europe Begins To Face Reality
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-23 07:22
by Karl Denninger
in International
Ignore this thread
Europe Begins To Face Reality
 

Oh, you mean that when you're too far in debt you have to accept the fact that your economy will contract when you take the adjustments?

Europe’s economy will shrink in 2012, with Italy and Spain facing sudden crunches as they battle to escape the debt crisis, the European Commission said.

The 17-nation euro economy will contract 0.3 percent, the commission said, abandoning a November forecast of 0.5 percent growth. The downgrade was mainly due to projected contractions of 1.3 percent in Italy and 1 percent in Spain.

The euro area has entered into a mild recession,”European Union Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters in Brussels today after releasing the forecasts.“Prospects have worsened and risks to the growth outlook do remain, but there are signs of stabilization.”

Uh huh.  The problem with this last sentence is that the deficit spending has not stopped, and until it does there is no way to know exactly where "stabilization" is.

Governments are starting to see the light on the indefinite "spend more than we make" idiocy, but by no means have they accepted that this must end -- permanently and forever -- at this point.

But that must, in fact, happen -- or every one of these nations will wind up as Greece has.

Incidentally, the United States is not exempt from this process, but we have had zero recognition of this fact within this country -- not in the mainstream media, not anywhere -- except here on the Ticker.

If you're wondering how bad this will (or can) get, simply look at the deficit spending in dollars and subtract it off GDP.  That's the minimum immediate impact, although getting the government out of the way is likely to lead to intermediate-term gains in productivity (since government activity is usually ridiculously inefficient.)  Nonetheless the short term pain of such an adjustment is always and will always be quite material, and it cannot be avoided.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info Europe Begins To Face Reality in forum [Market-Ticker]
Infidel
Posts: 5463
Incept: 2007-08-27
Green A True American Patriot!
between here and there
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Live feeds from Europia as this unfolds will drive the idiots in DC to do even more insane circus acts to prolong/booste our hedonic domestic policy and weaken the dollar. As long as it FEEEEls good and we FEEEEL the "wealth effect"

----------
"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.

Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl,

The Telegraph has been running an excellent series of stories on their liveblog about this today - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-....

I think that I'm going to keep that browser open today.

----------
"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Andyc
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-24


Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Futures are up, which is no surprise, risk free money and money manglers that operate with no risk dont read headlines.......managers I mean...money managers

: )

This is one of the most annoying things, with all this free money flowing around you would be a fool to go short and same if you go long.

They ruined the game.

Digitlman
Posts: 330
Incept: 2011-03-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"I decided to leave RBS because I don't want to save with a bank that thinks it is acceptable to blow millions of pounds on egos. Thanks to the Move Your Money UK, I have found a bank that has a social conscience and will not play with money as if it were money on a Monopoly board. The decline of the worlds finances is not a game."

That is a quote I am going to Facebook.

Thanks for the link, Stonedog.
Stonedog
Posts: 2080
Incept: 2008-05-29
Green A True American Patriot!
New Jersey
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Digitlman - you're welcome...

----------
"I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012

"All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit
Oulous
Posts: 30
Incept: 2010-12-12

United States
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I live in the Netherlands but I am a US citizen. They have started cutting a lot of stuff here that must be cut in order to create fiscal balance. This is stuff that would be very hard to cut in the US during an election. It hurts and is going to raise unemployment but its good to see a government starting to do what needs to be done.

Teachers pay cut hours increased
Day care subsidy gone
Some bus and tram lines cancelled
Pensions kicked in the nuts with cuts
Science budgets cut
Museums budgets slashed
Health care costs increased

On and on. There are headlines every day about cuts.

We shall see if it fixes anything and the NL can survive in the new or post euro.
Oulous
Posts: 30
Incept: 2010-12-12

United States
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
If anyone wants information on moving money out of pounds dollars and euros and you can travel to Norway I know a way to open a savings account there in NOK. You can email me lowlypop (at) hotmail (dot) com.

I went up there a month ago an opened an account. Have not moved any euros yet but I will this week.

KD sorry if you don't allow email posts, please delete this post if I violated TOS.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1227
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Europe’s economy will shrink in 2012, with Italy and Spain facing sudden crunches as they battle to escape the debt crisis, the European Commission said.


That was obviously written to make everyone think that no one had any inkling that this was coming, thus giving the politician some deniability. Anyone with two brain cells and a connection between them saw this coming.

Now, its time to share a new quote.

Quote:
Economists simply don't know what science means. I am quite disgusted with all of this rubbish. -I am more and more of the opinion that Keynes is a scientific charlatan, and his followers not even that. -- Oskar Morgenstern, dairy, April-May 1942.

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3544
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'm shocked the news still indicates Germany is pretty solid. Makes me wonder if they imported some guys from BLS

----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8849
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Gen, I'm more and more convinced we'll default by printing in a few years. This will immediately force a balanced budget as no one will lend to us. Or it could go down the other way - no one will lend to us so we print our way out. Either way I don't see us paying the debt except with printed dollars and I see a time where we will have to live within our means.

----------
I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Digitlman
Posts: 330
Incept: 2011-03-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Mr Fisher added that another round of money printing would be unnecessary in his opinion and labelled calls for QE3 from Wall Street "wishful thinking”. He said:

Quote Our job is not to prop up the Street [...] We are working on the real economy. "

This is the funniest thing I have read all week!
Genesis
Posts: 130733
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
He's a funny guy, I'll give you that. Lots of jaw-flapping that sounds good, but when you get down to it.... not so much.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Digitlman
Posts: 330
Incept: 2011-03-04

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Maybe if we sit Fisher in front of a wind farm, all that flapping air will power several thousand homes!
Tickergroupie
Posts: 429
Incept: 2010-03-24
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
But that must, in fact, happen -- or every one of these nations will wind up as Greece has.

Incidentally, the United States is not exempt from this process, but we have had zero recognition of this fact within this country -- not in the mainstream media, not anywhere -- except here on the Ticker.


And here, Gen...

http://www.krmg.com/news/news/local/news....


The promos for this interview were great. Over and over we heard him saying, essentially, "If a politician tells you they're not gonna cut your Medicare, they're a LIAR." and "We're 2 years away from being Greece." Even if people missed the interview, you could not escape hearing those points hammered repeatedly in the promos.

I was pleased, but not surprised, to hear some blunt talk from "Dr. No". smiley

Maybe he reads the Ticker.

Too bad he's only one senator.
Jubber
Posts: 14057
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
how is the Euro still up at these levels?

----------

“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Goldmanstackz
Posts: 21
Incept: 2011-01-27

England
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Genesis, is there not some counter-effect to GDP falling by (deficit + unkonwon %) due to the reverse of governemnt spending crowding out the private sector? Or is this only applicable if the money is taxed rather than borrowed?
Stuart
Posts: 28
Incept: 2011-12-15

Phoenix
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The shorts are keeping the market up. Everyone seems to do the obvious trade which is short the EURO. When most shorts are killed, then the EURO will crash.

AAPL is the most silly owned stock in that EVERYONE is trying to hide there. This has all the earmarks of a crash. I remember when AMZN was $400/share back in 2000-2001 when no one thought they could go down. It was the short of the century when it finally went down to the teens.

If they think that their cash will save them, look at what MSFT endured for years with tons of cash on their books.

My only regret is not waiting until these levels to start a short position on AAPL. When EVERYONE is in on a trade, that is when they pull the plug.
Genesis
Posts: 130733
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Goldman, that generally only applies in a calculable form when the money is taxed. The thing is that the "Crowding out" problem does exist, but it's due to capital formation suppression rather than direct substitution (as with taxation.)

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Spanktron9
Posts: 2774
Incept: 2009-03-13
Gold
Reality.
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'll go on record now and say they underestimated the GDP contraction, and "mild" recession will not be how history refers to what is in the pipe.

----------
"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark
"Mo'lon La'be"- Leonidas
"Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe
"Its like Calvinball."-MarvinMartian
Hstella
Posts: 284
Incept: 2009-08-18
Gold
Colorado
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Financial sense has an interview today with former senator Simpson of the simpson-bowles commission saying about the same thing.

Reason: typo
Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
“Prospects have worsened and risks to the growth outlook do remain, but there are signs of stabilization.”

Quote:
Uh huh. The problem with this last sentence is that the deficit spending has not stopped, and until it does there is no way to know exactly where "stabilization" is.

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is your Captain speaking.
smiley

I just wanted to let you know that we have stabilized the aircraft at a steady 38,000 foot per minute rate of descent.

Our flaps have been ripped off, both engines are on fire, and even if we had landing gear anymore - we could not put it down because our triple redundant hydraulics system is shot.

We have no way of arresting our descent rate or of safely landing.

However, due to our excellent foresight and skill, we have managed to provide you a nice stable descent rate.

Please enjoy the rest of your ride! The flight attendants will continue to hand out free Skittles for the remainder of the flight - on the house!"
smiley

----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Genesis
Posts: 130733
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Incidentally, if you wish to, kissing your ass goodbye might be a good idea!"

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Lenguado
Posts: 1272
Incept: 2010-01-12
Gold A True American Patriot!
Orlando, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Stuart,
Quote:
My only regret is not waiting until these levels to start a short position on AAPL. When EVERYONE is in on a trade, that is when they pull the plug.

In the infamous words of Al Czervik (Rodney Dangerfield) in the movie "Caddyshack," - "It's my broker. What? Then buy, buy, buy! Oh, everyone's buying? Then sell, sell, sell!"

----------
I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Wis/min
Posts: 5362
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold A True American Patriot!
On the border
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
EUR/USD at Dec 10th 2011 levels.

It must be all better after all. /sarc
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last