Rumors about rumors is all we are left with these days. D-Day will occur. Whenever.

Greece will default and the financial world will continue to turn. I agree with Karl though, if Italy, Spain etc. get involved then the EU is done and the fuse will be lit. Europe will fall. Then the UK/Japan will fall. And we will fall last. Timeframe 1-3 years from the time the EU falls.

I think the problem is Greece. The sum is bigger than you think. They would have just looked at it and let it default otherwise. When Italy, Ireland and Spain see what happens after default, they won't want anything to do with that idea.

War be comin'.

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When Italy, Ireland and Spain see what happens after default, they won't want anything to do with that idea.

Interesting thought, because when Italy, Spain and the rest, see what happens to Greece when the funding gets cut off (along with all of the social programs), and the people get angry and riot (maybe revolution?) they will fall in line like good little children. Seems like a possible outcome to me.

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Be ready.

How?

Buy the dip? Barricade yourself in the basement? What what?

I swear, the day Greece defaults you are gonna see a +35 point ramp in the /ES.

rafter wrote..

How?

Buy the dip? Barricade yourself in the basement? What what?

Stock up on yogurt. Duh.

Euro might spike on announcment that greece is out, and weaken $dxy to spike US equities and create a great short opportunity.

If they DO punish Greece severely to discourage the other PIIGS, Greece will move into the orbit of another power bloc - Russia for instance. This will demonstrate the option is available to others. The euro "core" may eventually find itself surrounded by outposts of a not-totally benign competitor. And they will have done it to themselves. I'm sure the russians think Cadiz would make a lovely Soviet warm-water naval base.

Is it not general knowledge that there are detailed plans for a return to the Drachma? No need to return to the Drachma if there is not a 100% default.

If this is true, the tapeworm has already adjusted and placed itself in front of the post default money flow.

This makes sense. This fits right into the schedule.

Greece collapse at end of Q1. Then the other PIIGS give it 90 days or so to see what happens to Greece before they start blackmailing the EU. Blackmailing starts around July and it goes until October before it gets serious. EU measures work only for about 90 days.

Collapse happens after election. Right on schedule, as long as the Iranians behave and play their part in the game.....

So bollox then? agreement out by the look of it

I agree with N_e. The fact that they can time these things to happen RIGHT after elections should tell you everything you need to know.

You mean the game is RIGGED. Say it ain't so.

Rigged? I bet Goldman's already selling derivatives on the Greek mints that will be selected to punch out the new drachmas.....

Bought my seeds today. This time, though, enough to last a couple of years.

They can time things? Was the 2008 timed then? Both? Neither? Sometimes yes, sometimes not?

I think they think they can and they always try. Beyond that I'd be guessing.

The equity markets sure don't think a Greek default is coming.

You guys remember the hole Lehman left in banking? Well, Greece defaults and there isn't any international credit. The entire system of banks in Greece freeze and it becomes systematic. The wives tale is banks run off deposits. This is not absolutely true, as banks swap deposits, one needing to be solvent to pay the other. When money flees a bank, it has to borrow to cover the outflow. In Europe, they have set up something called TARGET2. I have seen a higher, more recent figure, but Doug Noland put the liability to the Bundesbank at 495 billion Euros. This figure was as of December 16 and I have seen much higher figures since. I don't believe the Bundesbank has any intention of losing this money and it is clear the Greek bank won't pay in default. This relates to how much money has fled the Greek banks and other PIGS banks into other banking systems. Anyone with a brain has pulled their money out of Greece.

Anyone thought about this little tiny problem with the size of this bailout they are currently talking about? I think the figure is 130 billion Euros. Maybe it is 100 billion and the 130 is dollars, but if it is 130 billion euros, that is roughly $170 billion. That is 1/4 of the TARP and it is 4 years budget for the state of Texas. Little tiny and $170 billion don't equate.

I think the rally today is that the ECB might throw something into the pot. They bought all these bonds at a discount, turns around and wants the private holders to take a haircut while they make money? This is the real mess, the quasi governmental organizations moving in and demanding par while the people already senior to them taking a haircut. This is the real mess, not the countries seeing Greece get away without paying, but the lenders seeing the government banking cartels force the total haircut on them. Who are these government banks anyhow?

I don't think Spain, Portugal, Italy or Ireland will want to default when they see what happens in Greece if they do. I think Greece would have been more prepared for this 2 years ago before the Euro money left the country. Whatever they bring out as money will equate to putting a roll of Charmin out there, as it will have no anchor. Greeks will probably give their own government the bird, as they already aren't paying their taxes and the money will have no standing. If you don't have Euros, you might as well bring your Charmin.

On the contrary, a Greek default is phenomenally bullish. I am surprised anyone even questions this. First, a tremendous dark cloud overhang will be removed. A Greek default is baked into the market 14 times over, if it actually happens, the sense of relief will be epic. A tremendous flood of relief, plus an enormous flood of liquidity will be provided by central banks or the EU or the ESFS or the Fed and/or any other banking entity you can name. I'd be surprised if we didn;t see +25 ES handles on the announcement.

I am being absolutely serious, an actual default will be like a massively longed-for bowel movement. How can you look at it differently?

I'm sure Goldman Sachs already has it leveraged and ready to fire any day.

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I'm sure Goldman Sachs already has it leveraged and ready to fire any day whenever they want to make it happen.

They facilitated Greece getting into this, remember? Make $$ on the bubble and the crash.