You've Been Fairly Warned (Narrowing Breadth)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-15 11:49
by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings
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You've Been Fairly Warned (Narrowing Breadth)
 

I have warned of this before, but it's now getting into the realm of the ridiculous.

.... as compared with the Nasdaq 100 as a whole....

If this doesn't broaden soon we're in for a "cut cable elevator ride."

I'm not shorting into this yet, as I don't need to find the top.  Just the trend break.

Which will come.

It always does when a market takes off in this sort of fashion, driven by a handful of stocks.

The Nasdaq has become the "Apple Market", and eventually Apple will succumb to the law of large numbers and blow it.

When -- not if -- they do, don't be long the Nasdaq as a market, or Apple as a stock.

Disclosure: No current positions in either the Qs or Apple; as noted, if and when the trend breaks, however, or if it appears it will, I have every intention of taking advantage of it.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info You've Been Fairly Warned (Narrowing Breadth) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Kiber
Posts: 1204
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Just bot AAPL Oct 500-475 put sp and sold the Oct 390 put for a small credit...Am I crazy!!!
Pika-steph
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Yikes. That's epic.

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Rubegoldberg
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Genesis
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That dump in the Naz is ALL Apple -- second city seizing iPADs.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Pietertvl
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NFA
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AAPL starting to give it back FAST now.

Most of today's 5% move is gone.

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Genesis
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The entire market is falling apart now on the back of this.

THAT IS THE DANGER OF CHASING RALLIES THAT ARE NARROW LIKE THIS.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Asimov
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Apple may be ****ed, bad, with this **** going on. VERY bad.

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If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Etz
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May be sooner than you thought...

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Steph4liberty
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Gen, it may already be time for the smiley to come out...just sayin'

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Chekmypulse
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Think this might be a good cable cutter?

http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news....

If Proview prevails and can ger both import and export of the iPad 3 banned, Apple's up **** creek w/o a paddle in a barbed wire canoe... smiley

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Ssaini
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Should have taken clue from ur posting this morning and shorted AAPL at 526.....HHHmmmmmm............!
Frankschoenburg
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I thought it was a good idea to short AAPL at 400. Glad I didn't.
Eaglewwit
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If all else fails Apple will just write a big check to keep the iPads flowing.
Mannfm11
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Frank, that is the problem with Karl putting up told you so, which he hasn't. YOu can't turn the news on without hearing the commentators talk about finding something on your iPhone or iPad, like no one else makes these things. When all else fails, the jackasses on CNBC bring up they have $100 billion in cash. Is it cash or vendor financing? Best guess is the insiders are going to sell their stock to the company when the time comes and take the cash.

I was probably mistaken, but I equated AAPL with DELL in 1998-1999. Dell was a fad stock. AAPL a cult. I have a hard time buying the idea that a company not in a business just marches in and takes over the business because they have the best product. No, I believe if AAPL started making dog turd scoopers and priced them double the normal market, the cult would buy them. Now we are going to have iTV. This means all the other TV makers, who have been in business for decades are suddenly going to start making crap, just like the phone companies were making crap and the computer companies and the Kindle and all the other bull****.

If you believe the hype, this company is certain to go to $1000 and not too distant in the future either. Hard to believe a company that spent decades mired in the mud sudddenly owns the world. The question I ask is "what then"?

I wouldn't touch it at $200. That was clearly a mistake. I mean the industry is prone to what is the next great thing. There is always the mistake, like maybe the phone catches on fire and the company denies it. I'm betting the economy and common sense catches up with reason. Under no certain terms would I short this stock without evidence the market in general has turned. Then, it would still be better to look for companies that have something near zero as a destination. Until AAPL screws up with the consumer, they are probably going to get bigger and over the longer term go higher on the market.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Kiber
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I am hearing a boatload of stops in AAPL around 500 and below...btc we should be belo 500...
Primetime
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I agree the parabolic rise in apple is scary, and the narrowing breadth is bad for the market rally in general, but I think AAPL still has some legs ... The iPad 3 is going to be announced in March, and with the likely addition of the "retina" display, it will almost certainly be hugely popular. Perhaps the breadth will just continue to be very narrow ...

Mannfm11
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I think I said the same thing Prime. The question is, when it turns, where does it stop? I haven't read their financials, but they keep generating cash at an amazing rate. If they aren't borrowing, this implies business success. I don't know that iPad1, 2 or 3 or 55 means a damn thing. It is going to be the money in the customers pockets. I wouldn't be bull or bear here, as playing this stock is like poking your pet dog while he is in a cage and putting your hand in. Of course, you drop a zero and we are talking $50 and going from $50 to $40 or to $60 isn't that big a deal in a successful stock trade. Problem is being on the stock short or long when it moves.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Smacktle
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The bigger they are...

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Etz
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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Kiber
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Major key reversal!!!!
Bearshort
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Big gap in AAPL's chart from $431 to 443 that needs to be filled..
Wrote this back on 2/9, long way down IMO.

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Lowbeyond
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really its hard to argue with AAPL's last quarter - it was amazing. the only argument is how much more growth there is, and what happens after that.

and that is a really ugly daily candle and the weekly (so far) looks worse.

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!

Geschrei
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This is pretty funny....

The photo below, from the article linked by Checkmypulse, is captioned thusly:

"The user manual for Proview's IPAD shows off its boxy wireless device shaped like an old TV. Proview claims it has the rights to the trademark 'IPAD' in China, locking it in a legal battle with U.S.-based tech giant Apple."

inline

Ummm...it looks a lot less like 'an old TV' and more like a miniature one of these:

inline

BTW, these ugly beasts came out in August '98. . .a good 18 months or more before Proview patents....

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