Now We're Fooked (Europe)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-15 07:19
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Now We're Fooked (Europe)
 

We'll see whether this gets any positive mentions -- anywhere. (Hint: It won't)

Europe’s economy contracted in the fourth quarter for the first time in 2 1/2 years as the region’s debt crisis undermined confidence and forced governments fromSpain to Greece to toughen budget cuts.

Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area fell 0.3 percent from the prior three months, the first drop since the second quarter of 2009, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast a drop of 0.4 percent, the median of 42 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. In the year, the economy grew 0.7 percent.

Europe is facing its second recession in less than three years and Moody’s Investors Service cut the ratings of six of the region’s countries on Feb. 13, saying policy makers haven’t done enough to restore investor confidence. Euro-area finance ministers today will hold a teleconference to prod Greece to do more to clinch an aid package needed for a March bond payment.

Note carefully that nice embedded sentence.

This is elmementary mathematics, but nobody wants to deal with it. 

GDP = C + I + G + (x - i)

That is, Consumption (by consumers) + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports

Well, guess what -- when you deficit spend you create false demand that does not really exist in the economy, and that makes GDP larger than it really is.

When you stop deficit spending then GDP must, mathematically, contract.

This is not bad, it's good.  It forces out the malinvestment, the excess production, the companies that survive on the basis of producing goods and services for which there is no actual demand.

The common mantra that "growth is always good" is in fact false.  Growth is only good if it is actual growth in organic demand -- that is, if there is both ability and desire to buy what is produced by real consumers using their economic output.

Government, in turn, has two means (and only two!) by which it can spend -- it can either tax people in the here and now or it can dishonestly steal the funds to spend by borrowing.

The latter is dishonest because deficit spending inherently causes the monetary supply (money and credit) to increase.  And since the value of a unit of currency (in terms of goods and services) is determined by the simple relationship of the number of units of production divided by the units of currency and credit in the economy all such borrowing inherently causes the value of every unit of credit and currency in the economy to fall.

It thus has the exact same effect as if everyone using that currency were taxed in the exact amount that is "printed" through that borrowing!

It does not matter if your unit of currency is pieces of eight, scraps of linen-laced paper with dead Presidential visages upon them, stones of peculiar dimension and shape or sticks of wood.  All that matters is the number of them and those markers used to represent them, which is what credit is, compared to the number of units of goods and services produced.

Recession, once one understands this, is good, not bad.  It clears the excess production from the system and by doing so takes the weakest borrowers and lenders out to the woodshed and bankrupts them both

We, and the rest of the world, must accept the fundamental truth of mathematics.  It's not complicated; we're talking about arithmetic and algebra here, not calculus.  Simply put, compound growth of anything is unsustainable over the longer term, and that which relies on it is therefore impossible.

This does not mean that for some period of time growth cannot happen.  It most-certainly can, and in many cases should.  But all such projections and expectations must have a "use by" date at which the presumption ends, and those political and social policies that follow must also take into account that "use by date."

It is the refusal to do this that has led us to where we are in Europe with budget deficits and unsustainable fiscal policies.  The same refusal is what plagues us here in the United States, and what will result in financial, social and political ruin right here at home unless we choose instead to face reality.

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Visualcsharp
Posts: 343
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Simplicity like this escapes the stupid, Karl. My mother runs the most successful real estate office in her small town and if I asked if she cared to know how GDP was calculated, I'd get a blank stare and she'd say "GDP? What's that?" Even this stuff is way beyond most folks.
Falcor
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G = size of tumor

Health of Patient = C + I + G + (x - i)

If G is increasing, that's good, right?

smiley
J0nx
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But but but what about China helping them out?

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The fraud and lies are only allowed to continue because the people allow it. Either through apathy or ignorance, they still allow it.
Perramas
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The former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said it best "Europe... has lost a lot of money and therefore you must be poor now relative to the past"

"And in Asia we live within our means. So when we are poor, we live as poor people. I think that is a lesson that Europe can learn from Asia."

"You refuse to acknowledge you have lost money and therefore you are poor," he says.

"I think you should go back to doing what I call real business - producing goods, providing services, trading - not just moving figures in bank books, which is what you are doing."

"Currency is not a commodity", he says.

"There must be something solid to trade, then you can legitimately make money."

"To recover your wealth you have to work over many years to rebuild your capacities, to produce goods and services to sell to the world, to compete with the eastern countries," he says.

European workers are overpaid and unproductive, Dr Mahathir believes.

"I think you have paid your workers far too much money for much less work," he says.

"So you cannot expect to live at this level of wealth when you are not producing anything that is marketable."

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Hognutz
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S.C.
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"The fat lady has sung?"
Ironpete
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I keep telling people who are naive about economic data that not all growth is good.

I tell them cancer is a growth also, is that good?

As Falcor said, "G" would safely be stated as the cancer.
Stuart
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Phoenix
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Debt based money system is behind all of this. When we finally realize that it is the way are money comes into existence that leads us down to this inevitable path.

There is not enough money in the system to pay the current debt. More debt has to be created to create more money which increases the debt further. It is always a trap.
Myopia
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"The latter is dishonest because deficit spending inherently causes the monetary supply (money and credit) to increase. And since the value of a unit of currency (in terms of goods and services) is determined by the simple relationship of the number of units of production divided by the units of currency and credit in the economy all such borrowing inherently causes the value of every unit of credit and currency in the economy to fall."

I'm unclear on this - if you increase the money supply (via printing, or via debt) does this matter if the units of production increase, i.e. that extra "money" is put to use that gives a return equal or above to its productive value?


I know we've had thirty plus years of not doing this I just want to get clear in my mind this relationship.
Asimov
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Quote:
"And in Asia we live within our means. So when we are poor, we live as poor people. I think that is a lesson that Europe can learn from Asia."


Yup. You sure do.


http://www.google.com/search?q=images+of....

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Wearedoomed
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Stuart wrote..
Debt based money system is behind all of this.
Ah, Stuart, you may wish to edit your post before you get smiley for expressing an opinion that is typically espoused by proponents of currency backed by e.g. gold. Fiat currency is not "behind all of this." Bankruptcy is how a debt-based system clears out sociopathic creditors and debtors. The gummints and the banksters refuse to let the necessary bankruptcies happen to them; all the gold-backed currency in the world cannot cure the sociopathy of the people in control of the monetary system.

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And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
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Ghopper
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Quote:
"But but but what about China helping them out?"


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46394254

Quote:
"U.S. stock index futures pointed to a sharply higher open for Wall Street, as China renewed its commitment to investing in euro zone debt and European shares rallied on the back of economic data that was not as bad as expected."


Seriously. Can you believe they are back to this BS story AGAIN???
China will save the day...while it is pouring hundreds of billions into its own banks to keep them from imploding.
Disparage
Posts: 48
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Wearedoomed...

Why would Stuart get banned for making this comment:

"Debt based money system is behind all of this. When we finally realize that it is the way are money comes into existence that leads us down to this inevitable path.

There is not enough money in the system to pay the current debt. More debt has to be created to create more money which increases the debt further. It is always a trap."

The Federal Reserve Notes, which isn't even legal tender under the Constitution, is backed by nothing more than Debt?

But not only that we currently are in an economy which depends on debt to exist. Example: "credit is money. debt is capital." LOL, banks claim the latter.

So I don't understand the statement of banning Wearedoomed...
Ktrosper
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Myopia wrote..
I'm unclear on this - if you increase the money supply (via printing, or via debt) does this matter if the units of production increase...


Here's what I think... Pretty simplistic but hopefully I'm close:

If the money supply stayed the same and production increased, someone(s) would gain in wealth.. Excess production could be banked or invested.

If the money supply inflates at the same rate that true productivity increases, those prod increases would be offset. Fixed income folks get hosed?

If the money supply inflates faster than true productivity, everyone gets poorer. Everyone gets hosed as currency values are debased...

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
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Bagbalm
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Stuart did not say anything about gold. Perhaps you remember previous statements of his but I don't have the time to research that. But what he said today said nothing about what should replace debt issued money. Just it fails.
I've been giving it a great deal of thought recently what would work.
Perhaps you think I'm full of myself to think I could come up with something when all the highly educated folks have failed. When you look at Bernanke and Geithner it seems the more they are educated the less they know.
It seems any system fails when there is unchecked greed and dishonesty.
People look at the world and see that we could produce enough physical goods to satisfy everyone who is willing to make themselves useful. Thus the simplistic effort of Communism to make an equitable distribution. All they proved is that the masses can be just as greedy and short sighted as whatever form of oligarchy that happens to be over them.
I'm not ready to lay out publicly any solution. I think that the scriptures were correct when they said the poor are with us always. Some people just can not be helped on any terms. But we can hope for a system that doesn't peak and crash like unthinking animal populations. Depressions are horrible wasteful means of purging the system. I'm sure the solutions are not in the details of currency creation and financial transactions, but in the character of men, the limits of governance, and how children are raised.

Genesis
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No it doesn't necessarily fail.

Some PEOPLE fail, but the system does not have to fail.

Do not run the polemics in my Ticker threads. The warnings are well-founded -- if I see any more of them the people doing so are gone. There's an entire FORUM for this here and those who want to do this had better move that discussion toot suite.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tickergroupie
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Visual,

I'd say your mother simply lacks the knowledge. I'd bet if you explain it to her, she will understand it and quickly. Besides, most people find this sort of thing mind-numbingly boring. God only knows why I became interested.

I was once just like your mother. However, after a few years of enlightenment via the Ticker, I now know what GDP is (and a lot of other stuff I previously didn't - Thanks Karl :) But I can't sell real estate. ;-)
Themortgagedude
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Maybe it's time for somewhat of a jubilee. All countries agree that deficit spending and issuance of debt from this point on will not happen. UN Resolution to that affect. Then we just print our way out of the mess. Just fill the coffers up with digital money. Devalue everyone holding currency. People with hard assets are winners. Jubilee - problem solved. We picked our winners and picked our losers. Live with it. Or you could just default all debt. What the hell - what we're doing isn't working. Then instead of devalued currency you get none if it was in a bank.

Or you could just raise taxes and reduce services world wide. Balance the budgets and pay everything off. Again you picked your winners. Those holding hard assets win this way.

Whatever we do it's time to match expenditures with receipts. I always get this picture of Bernanke and Draghi juggling balls and trying to keep them all in the air. Greece keeps trying to throw a chainsaw in on them and they keep tossing it back. I wonder what happens when Greece just tells them to **** off. I see that happening in March- May. As soon as the Greek people figure out that all the relief $$$ are going to the bankers they'll say **** it. If we're gonna have to live within our means we can sure as hell do it without paying the bankers.

Wonderful ****ing times we live in. All I know is my 8 year old is not going to fight the pigman's wars.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Bagbalm
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The problem with a Jubilee is: Then what?
Start the long climb to another crash the same as before? That's no solution.
Asimov
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Jubilee is MASSIVELY misunderstood.

It's not "all debts are canceled"

If you know that there's going to be a jubilee in 20 years, would you write somebody a 30 year loan? Of course not.

If it's in 5 years, would you write them a 10 year loan? OF COURSE NOT!

That was the purpose of jubilee. To reduce the debt in an organized and methodical manner.

It's not something you just announce one day and all debt disappears. As you get closer and closer to the date of jubilee, the harder it is to get loans and IMPOSSIBLE to get loans that extend across the date.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Anti
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I like Falcor's analogy. Here is a proposed tiny modification:

G = size of tumor
Weight of Patient = W

W = C + I + G + (x - i)

If W and G are increasing, that's good, right?

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Bagbalm
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Asimov - then you have to adopt a regular periodic jubilee like described in the bible. I notice the Jewish state has not gone back to this religious law. It would certainly complicate their relationship with other nations. In an era of easy travel and international commerce it would have to be world wide and on the same time table or the wealthy would just leave or transfer funds as it approached.
Asimov
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Quote:
then you have to adopt a regular periodic jubilee like described in the bible.


EXACTLY!

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Wineaux
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Green A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
All I know is my 8 year old is not going to fight the pigman's wars.


A-****ing-men!!! It’s plausible to think this is how it will end.

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What wine goes with unemployment?
Themortgagedude
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There will be some kind of Jubilee. Not that which Asimov refers to but in the end that which cannot be paid will not be paid. Don't count on your gov pension and don't assume gov bonds will be repaid. Any gov bonds. For that matter I'm not sure that property rights will be respected either. K winter - you might be able to kick her down the road a little while but she will not be denied.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
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