Retail Sales: This Is "Recovery"?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-02-14 11:11
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
Ignore this thread
Retail Sales: This Is "Recovery"?
 

There's bad, there's awful, and then there's the retail sales number this morning.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $401.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 5.8 percent (±0.7%) above January 2011. Total sales for the November 2011 through January 2012 period were up 6.3 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2011 percent change was revised from 0.1 percent (±0.5)* to virtually unchanged (±0.3%)*.

Pay close attention to that bolded part.

Why? 

Grocery stores were 45,833.  Last year was 44,538.  Here's the problem -- the CPI on food at home is claimed to be 6%, so the price-adjusted parity level is 47,210.

In other words this report sucks when adjusted for price changes on food -- people are either unable or unwilling to maintain their food spending due to price changes.  You pick, but the facts are what they are.

Gasoline is up 10% year over year as well.  Gas station sales, however, went from 38,216 to 40,991 and should be 42,038 on a parity price basis.  We have heard about a collapse in demand for gasoline -- well, here's your proof folks, as on a gallons-sold basis it sure isn't going in the northbound direction.  And gasoline is not used for heating purposes, so this is all travel (by car.)

No inflation effect on households eh? 

That's not what this report says.

Deficit spending is responsible for this and the so-called "budget negotiations" are bullcrap.  Deficit spending simply must stop.

Period.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Retail Sales: This Is "Recovery"? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Pietertvl
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NFA
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CHS on a guest post at ZH has a remarkable ROC chart on US electrical consumption, that hasn't regained 2007 levels and is now rolling over

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post....

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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams
Dashingdwl
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"Deficit spending simply must stop.

Period."

True. But it will not stop.

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Eli
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It is hard to ignore 4+ milk and 6+ bacon, a lot of people are doing without those items.

Also you just have to love how 12 oz. is the new pound.

My local Abuelos fired about 90% of the chips guys and no more individual bowls of salsa and they raised their prices.

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Rule10
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Bacon is not $6 a pound. Delete your post. We have enough inaccurate information to deal with.

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Mannfm11
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Remember Karl, the iPhone they buy every six months got twice as good twice.

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Asimov
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Rule: It is here. Matter of fact, name brand is $7. We got a hell of a deal the other day at a big discount store. Bought 20 pounds for 2.39/lb.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Shanearthur
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What I find the most amazing/disturbing about that blurb is how the average Joe will see it and say, "Wow, we're doing better."

I should be shocked at how blatant government lies have become if not for my built-up tolerance.
Tesla
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I'm betting the unadjusted numbers are really, really bad.

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Etz
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But the iPad is still $499.

Let them eat iPads!


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Trades50
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Was talking to the grocery checkout yesterday at one of the major food stores. He was amazed at how expensive cereal has become. He says he buys some stuff at Aldi (coffee) and other discount stores. People are feeling the food inflation pain.

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Marvinmartian
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My conclusion on year over year food sales: people are eating lower on the food chain.

It would be interesting to put together sales volume on individual items (beef, eggs, grains, prepackaged foods etc.) to support this.
Rule10
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Asi, What cities are you near? Or what stores are the main in your area. I flat out don't believe it. Maybe I should load up a truck and drive it down there and make $2 per lb. profit. Or more.

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Genesis
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I can find $3.99/lb on sale, but that's the sale price and only when on sale. When not, $6 or so is about right, and I won't pay that.

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Mayorquimby
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Bacon is $5.50 by me (brand name per lb).

Just wait for clearance sales. Got 4 Kashi's for $10 and usually just eat oatmeal and Farina both of which are super cheap and more delicious anyways.

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Asimov
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Just double checked that with the SO. It's $6-7 for 24 or 30oz packs. Not per pound.

Sorry about that.

[Edit: Or that's what we're thinking. It *MIGHT* be per pound.]

----------
It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.

Asimov
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I want to find a place that just sells pork bellies. Now that I have a slicer I should be able to get bacon prices down to something reasonable.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Fraudster
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Quote:
the CPI on food at home is claimed to be 6%


I don't know what world those statisticians live on, but my grocery bill has gone up a great deal more than 6%, and I am not eating like a king.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Wis/min
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Local bacon price:

Quote:
Farm Fresh Sliced Bacon, 16 oz. Selected Varieties.
Regular Price: $4.65. SAVE UP TO 67¢ $3.98/lb.

Genesis
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SALE prices are not the regular retail price.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
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Paul Craig Roberts used some graphs derived by John Williams:

Real Income



Real Consumer Inflation



Inflation Corrected Real GDP



Inflation corrected Real Retail Sales


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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Wis/min
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Quote:
SALE prices are not the regular retail price
Which is why I posted both Gen.
Eighty6thebs
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I use Quicken to track all spending so I just pulled spending by payee reports for 2010 and 2011 for Kroger (our local grocery store which we also buy some gas from).

2010 - 3881
2011 - 6196

No changes to habits, no family size changes so these should be reasonable comp's. We also shop at Public and Cosco so maybe when I have more time I'll run a little deeper compare.

Family of 5.

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Mayorquimby
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I use this site for inflation:

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

Remember that dvd players could tank and bread can spike keeping this index (or any really) flat.

A food, energy, housing...ie...'survival' inflation index would be ideal.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Mayorquimby
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86- That jives with what I'm seeing (about 25% - 30%). Thankfully, beer prices have remained pretty much flat yoy near me (phew!).

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
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