Whah Whah: Go Ahead Merkel, Pull The Pin in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2012-02-10 06:16
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial

Whah Whah: Go Ahead Merkel, Pull The Pin

Greece is missing its debt-cutting targets, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers today, intensifying pressure on Greek politicians to deliver on austerity promises.
Schaeuble said in Berlin that Greece’s plans would leave its debt as high as 136 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, according to two people who took part in the meeting and who spoke on condition of anonymity because it was private. That compares with the 120 percent foreseen in a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout being negotiated.

Oh well, gee, you mean that when you stop deficit spending GDP goes down and thus debt-to-GDP goes up?

Yep.

Now here's the ugly -- you have to do it anyway.

In fact, you have to cut spending and the deficit by more than the private economy falls, so the imbalance is still corrected. You must run a primary surplus. You must do so even though it is difficult and even though the nation goes through an economic depression.

You cannot borrow your way out of debt. You must balance the budget with either major tax increases, spending cuts or both. You must do so even though it sucks, even though it brings major pain, even though the nation and her people will scream bloody murder. You must do so even if there is risk that you get civil disorder and overthrow of the government.

Mathematics are not subject to political whim or what people want. Mathematics just is. That's all. And mathematics are that you cannot borrow more than you take in on a continual basis; you must eventually stop, you must eventually balance the budget, you must in fact have government growing at a slower pace than the economy, which means if the economy is shrinking government must shrink faster!

These are all uncomfortable truths, but they are also all truths.

They are truths in Greece, they are truths in Italy, they are truths in Portugal, in Spain, in Great Britain and in the United States.

Greece is a relatively small nation. But the fact is that those who lent the nation money did so foolishly and without mathematical foundation behind it that they would get paid. Now trouble has come, because those banks and others lent money they didn't have -- unsecured lending with effectively-counterfeited Euros, as the European banking system, like ours, does not enforce "One Dollar of Capital."

This must end. It must end there, it must end in the rest of Europe, and it must end here.

We'd be wise to end it now.

Discussion below (registration required to post)

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User Info	Whah Whah: Go Ahead Merkel, Pull The Pin in forum [Market-Ticker]
Hogman Posts: 7884 Incept: 2008-02-18 Derby City, USA	Damn those Mayans are/ were some smart folks. What's three or four years amongst friends for picking supernova? 2012-02-10 06:42:29 Permalink
Asimov Posts: 104641 Incept: 2007-08-26 East Tennessee Eastern Time	Pin is pulled and thrown away. Just need to loosen up those fingers and let it fall. ---------- It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity. If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente. 2012-02-10 06:47:35 Permalink
Delapaz Posts: 61 Incept: 2009-04-29	This is all a charade. The ECB is going to find a way to print over Greece's deficits. It's going to be very complicated and obfuscated, but in the end somebody has to cover Greek bond payments or they default. My bet is on bond payment coverage via some type of printing/euro expansion. The Germans sure as hell aren't paying for it. Not that they are running a surplus either. They just happen to be the least ugly girl in a room full of uggo's. Short the Euro. 2012-02-10 06:58:09 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 131436 Incept: 2007-06-26	They're going to default, as if they don't and there is some sort of "save" Italy and Portugal will demand the same "help", and that will blow up the world -- and everyone knows it. ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* 2012-02-10 07:00:00 Permalink
Zappafan Posts: 1817 Incept: 2007-11-30 Atlanta	Call me crazy, I think they default over the weekend. As in this weekend. Something I read that struck me as true is that when countries default and devalue their currencies (Argentina), they always do it suddenly and by surprise. The reason is to prevent a massive panic. So they announce it on a Friday evening, close down all the banks and slap on capital controls. On Monday your screwed; your bank account is frozen while they convert your Euros to Drachmas or whatever. The only way to have any element of "surprise" for Greece is to claim they have agreed to the latest bailout terms. Everyone thinks the can has been kicked for another 6 months, and then, "surprise!" ---------- The alternative to not borrowing from a counterfeiting cartel is to be priced out by those who do 2012-02-10 07:05:01 Permalink
Delapaz Posts: 61 Incept: 2009-04-29	Gen, I know it blows up the world, but do they know it? To them, Greece going down and taking out several banks with it, might be equivalent to blowing up the world as well. At least if you're a bank it looks the same. I've given up hope on anyone in positions of power having critical thinking skills at this point. They will go down whatever path is easiest, and especially one that forestalls the inevitable. I know we hit the wall at some point, but my bet is Greece gets printed euro's for their debts and then we all hit the wall, later on. Definitely when Italy says WTF? Could be a matter of weeks. If Greece defaults it means they've decided to let Greece hit the wall first, and think that will save the rest of them. It won't. 2012-02-10 07:11:48 Permalink
Genesis Posts: 131436 Incept: 2007-06-26	Well then go ahead and buy into the market, or gold, or oil, or whatever. Just don't whine if you're wrong. ---------- I don't care* if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me* Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. *Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.* *What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?* 2012-02-10 07:13:07 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14606 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK Online	Greek far-right party leader says cannot vote for bailout agreement Greek far-right party leader says IMF mission chief for Greece Thomsen should be persona non grata in Greece ---------- The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other peoples money. Thatcher 2012-02-10 07:19:39 Permalink
Stonedog Posts: 2084 Incept: 2008-05-29 New Jersey	Hate to be nitpicky - Slight grammar error "And mathematics are that you cannot borrow more than you take in on a continual basis" Perhaps - "And the mathematics are that you cannot borrow more than you take in on a continual basis" ---------- "I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012 "All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit 2012-02-10 08:05:18 Permalink
Plaman Posts: 58 Incept: 2010-02-23 NE Ohio	When Karl, When? 2012-02-10 08:24:04 Permalink
Delapaz Posts: 61 Incept: 2009-04-29	RE: the ticker. I do think Germany is fully prepared to throw Greece under the bus. Schaeuble certainly is banging the default drum hard. France and the rest of the EU, not so much. 2012-02-10 08:30:16 Permalink
Trades50 Posts: 4237 Incept: 2007-10-30 Land of Tax and Spend	After defaulting, the jailing/ mob prosecution of some bankers would be icing on the cake. That was a nice ending for Iceland. If they default look for Lucas Papademos to flee? A technocrat/bankster appointed leader seems like a good place for venting your frustration. ---------- When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson 2012-02-10 08:41:15 Permalink
Stonedog Posts: 2084 Incept: 2008-05-29 New Jersey	Trade50 - while I would not wish physical harm on anybody (who wasn't convicted of a serious crime in a court of law) I would love to see him flee Greece in fear bc it will make the next would-be European technocrat/bankster appointed leader MUCH less likely to want to take the job. ---------- "I would characterize my professional disdain as more of a professional contempt for their [Central Banker, Banker and politician] economic and financial policies, priorities, presumptions and prescriptions." - Lauren Lyster on Capital Account for Friday June 16, 2012 "All the stimulus, the bailouts, the quantit 2012-02-10 08:51:49 Permalink
Bangkokian Posts: 40 Incept: 2010-09-17 Bangkok	Quote: "You cannot borrow your way out of debt." True. But... The "long term" importance of any policy is always going to be politically less-important than the "short term" effect. And unfortunately, you can borrow your way into getting re-elected. NO ONE can exercise fiscal responsibility and get elected against someone practicing fiscal irresponsibility. It just WILL NOT happen. That too, is mathematical certainty. If immutable budget and accounting laws do not exist to enforce fiscal responsibility, there simply won't be any responsibility. Ever. And all the shouting in the world about "logic" and "mathematical certitudes" won't do an ounce of good. To insist that mathematics must soon defeat 'impossible policy' is to believe in the chimera of a near-term "day of reckoning". That would be nice. But multiple cases in history suggest that while mathematics ultimately does matter, it gets it's ass kicked by policy in the short and medium terms. The Soviet Union was a mathematical impossibility for 70 years. But anyone logically concluding as much as soon as the insanity of Communism became apparent (and they would have been 100% right from a mathematical perspective), likely died long before mathematical realities ever mattered. No, you cannot solve a debt problem with more debt. But you may not implode for the better part of a century either. What's your investment horizon? The argument we need to be having is not whether or not current policy is unsustainable. That much is obvious. It's whether or not bets of "imminence" carry any validity. I have yet to see those arguments made convincingly. (Although I would love to see them). Last modified: 2012-02-10 09:02:19 by bangkokian 2012-02-10 08:55:00 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14606 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK Online	Greek far-right ministers offer resignation from coalition government according to a semi-official news agency ---------- The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other peoples money. Thatcher 2012-02-10 08:56:09 Permalink
Vitchilo Posts: 4975 Incept: 2011-04-27	Cutting spending won't happen. In the US it won't happen. In Europe it won't happen. In Japan it won't happen. They will rather default than cut spending and face angry voters. ---------- We hang the petty thieves and promote the great ones to office. 2012-02-10 09:12:16 Permalink
Ribbit Posts: 1792 Incept: 2007-09-10 Wales, UK	Did you see this Karl? The situation in Romania has been given the full blackout, full EU censorship, all across Europe (including the UK media): "(02-06) 16:12 PST BUCHAREST, Romania (AP) -- http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg.... Romania's government has collapsed following weeks of protests against austerity measures, the latest debt-stricken government in Europe to fall in the face of raising public anger over biting cuts. Emil Boc, who had been prime minister since 2008, said Monday he was resigning "to defuse political and social tension" and to make way for a new government. Thousands of Romanians took to the streets in January to protest salary cuts, higher taxes and the widespread perception that the government was not interested in the public's hardships in this nation of 22 million." {more at the link} Even the non eurozone Nations are falling apart. eta: Though at least Romania had its extreme weather covered, even if it didn't have the coverage of the social unrest (taking place at the same time as the extreme weather). Hungary was having a news blackout to the extent of not even having the effects of the extreme weather there covered. ---------- If the State was a Nanny, it would have been fired for incompetence, unreliability, and having its hands in the till, a very long time ago now. Last modified: 2012-02-10 09:19:29 by ribbit 2012-02-10 09:17:25 Permalink
Rd Posts: 487 Incept: 2008-02-27 Long Island, NY Online	The US and Japan will not default, they will monetize to the end, QE3 is just waiting to be launched. Europe may not monetize, Germany still has fears plus if the euro drops they export more goods. 2012-02-10 09:17:44 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14606 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK Online	From CNBC, a woman asked in Athens what she thought about the 20% cut in wages said "what cut, I have not been paid for the last twelve months!" ---------- The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other peoples money. Thatcher 2012-02-10 09:18:15 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14606 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK Online	Greek PM has received Laos resignation offer according to a government official; PM to decide on resignations ahead of cabinet meeting. ---------- The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other peoples money. Thatcher 2012-02-10 09:23:58 Permalink
Ghopper Posts: 2317 Incept: 2011-06-11 Staten Island, NY	Quote: "Reuters: Greek Police Union Wants To Arrest EU/IMF Officials Feb 10 (Reuters) - Greece's largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country's European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-poli.... That looks like game over. If the police side with the protesters there is no Government. 2012-02-10 09:25:54 Permalink
Zarathustra Posts: 6027 Incept: 2009-04-29 Funkytown	R'uh R'oh... Feb 10 (Reuters) - Greece's largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country's European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures. In a letter obtained by Reuters on Friday, the Federation of Greek Police accused the officials of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty" and said one target of its warrants would be the IMF's top official for Greece, Poul Thomsen. ---------- "And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates 2012-02-10 09:26:23 Permalink
Jubber Posts: 14606 Incept: 2007-07-05 UK Online	I would suggest that the Greek Government is about to collapse here ---------- The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other peoples money. Thatcher 2012-02-10 09:27:22 Permalink
Zarathustra Posts: 6027 Incept: 2009-04-29 Funkytown	It's priced in, Jubber... ---------- "And in knowing that you know nothing, that makes you the smartest of all." - Socrates 2012-02-10 09:28:58 Permalink

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