Big gap in AAPL's chart from $431 to 443 that needs to be filled......

Didn't you hear?

Cockroach bankers are above the law. Corruption is here to stay.

Booyah!!!

It must be true! The spots for LENDING TREE 'best mortgage rates' is on TV again. Groundhog Day!

Yep. It's a joke. I took a bath short. Them's the breaks. No more market for me. Rigged is no fun.

Unless TPTB/TBTF/POTUS/Fed can't avoid it, nothing will stop the rally until after the election.

Rally on.

That's what everyone said in 2008 too.

How did that work out, and how do you square this claim with what happened in 2008? Please be specific too, because this is an especially destructive load of **** and frankly, after warning people in 08 that it was a load of crap then (having remembered the same line of crap in 2000, which was the same thesis then) I'm more than a bit tired of it here on this forum and not inclined to let it go without challenge.

After that Super Bowl, it's definitely feeling like 2008.

IBM is beating their EPS by buying back stock. How long can they continue to do that with their share price in the stars?

i do think it's very much 2008 again.

the bear pain dragged all the way out until it finally snapped in October of that year.

We are 6 weeks into 2012, and this has been brewing since the fall of last year. Tons of counts and formulas point to this thing going down hard, but it's just draggin up. While i'm taking a bath on my short position, i really do feel it can end up being a repeat of 08.

There will be tons of ****ing money to be made on the short side...as long as you don't lose all your powder in the meantime.

Taking the S&P as an example, the target 7% - 8% yearly return has been reached and it’s only February. I would think fund managers can choose to glide the rest of the year taking little to no risk and declare success no matter which way the market moves. I’m not saying we won’t see a pullback, I just wonder where the volatility will come from and stick.

From the same place it came in 2008 -- financial instability as a consequence of excessive leverage and hiding bad debts that in fact have massive unrealized losses associated with them.

Crazy conspiracy crap has a place here and it's not my Ticker threads. I'm likely to be rather uncharitable to those who can't be bothered to correctly-file their speech around here.

It makes you wonder if it is wise to stockpile bags of **** just because the price is going up? If you are using EWP, it is going to be difficult to put a non-bull spin on this mess unless you use the idea that there has been so much back door money put in banks, a new high on the SPX and Dow is hard to ignore.

What would void such a count is what wave are we in? This would be wave 5 of some degree except wave 4 overlaps wave 1. This would then mean we are in wave 3 of 3, but there wasn't much of a correction for wave 2. There was never a valuation at the bottom to solve a bear market, as the bottom was moderate bull market valuation. I'm going for index manipulation, which is something most people don't know anything about.


The biggest boost to the SPX is that buybacks reduce the divisor, while dividends have no effect. If they put back about 2% of valuation for insufficient dividends, netting this out of buybacks, the SPX would be down about 20%. But, the SPX weighting is based on the number of shares a company has. Thus a company with 10 billion shares has 10 times the weighting times its price of a company with 1 billion shares. So, buying back shares has to change the weighting. The payment of insufficient dividends has enabled the skewing up of this index.

KD mentions IBM. If IBM had been spilt at 100, it would be trading at 97 and though it would have reduced the divisor, its move from roughly 120 would have been 37 instead of 74. On the contrary, GE was split 3 for 1 on the top in 2000. Its price of roughly 160 was reduced to 53. Its current price in the 19 range resulted in a 34 point loss instead of a 102 point loss. The split also made the increases in the other stocks more valuable.

There is no doubt in my mind this rally is all about the banks and their speculative trading. I could be wrong, but I don't believe any other group has the power to move everything in one direction or another at the same time. I watch gold for direction and gold is fading downward right now. I have to believe the market will follow. The Dow is 25 right now. If I am correct, it will close lower. 12931 is the magic figure.

Genesis wrote..

hiding bad debts that in fact have massive unrealized losses associated with them.

Exactly. Our Enron moment approacheth...

Oil. It's the answer to what ends this. When the funny money pushes us passed 120 and beyond.

I don't see how any entity can controll the market for long. The market is too big.

**** Smackle I used to think that back in 2010.

Has been awhile hasn't it. Denial is strong with me.

Mannfm, What about the PE of 13 on SP500. Isn't that low compared to the interest rate environment at present? If the yield were upped to 3.0 where would the PE be?

Into a cyclical earnings peak. Expecting expansion means you believe that the cyclical nature of earnings is not going to hold this time, even though it always has in the past.

I'm rather interested in how you arrive at that conclusion.... or if you considered it at all, seeing as this is a cycle that's only been good for roughly 100 years.

My sister said their doing no-doc loans again. Is this true?

Randy123

Quote:

Oil. It's the answer to what ends this. When the funny money pushes us passed 120 and beyond.

Well, they said it was not targeted at $100.00 in January.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/0....

And some dude who wears a diaper on his noggin reiterated that SA will not let oil go above $100.00 BBL two days ago....

Still trying to find the link for the more recent quote.

The key change for me has been sentiment. Whereas late last year there was a fair bit of caution around and people werent so secure (almost expecting bad news), it seems to me that people now have a more bullish bias. In particular how many times do you read that things are "priced in" now?

When sentiment turns bullish you then have a much greater chance of bad news causing a larger correction or even a crash. Esp when you see even the "bears" start to call markets higher.

I wonder what happens when all that foreclosure 'squatter' rent stops going into the retail economy, thanks to the new assfu^H^H^H^H^Hfraudclosure settlement..

Plus, more foreclosure supply == lower house prices? One can dream... And as far as an 'Enron' moment, it will not happen while Barry Soetoro is ensconced in the White House, as his 4th-estate worshipping peons will not allow it. Solyndra should have been it, Fast & Furious should have been it, fisting the Chrysler bondholders should have been it. If you think there'll be any critical eye turned towards any of this while Barry is around, you have not been paying much attention.

This is not a time for complaining loudly, it's a time for stockpiling supplies, guns and ammo, and biding..

Quote:

That's what everyone said in 2008 too.

How did that work out, and how do you square this claim with what happened in 2008? Please be specific too, because this is an especially destructive load of **** and frankly, after warning people in 08 that it was a load of crap then (having remembered the same line of crap in 2000, which was the same thesis then) I'm more than a bit tired of it here on this forum and not inclined to let it go without challenge.

You remember what I said on your blog in 2007? I got out way early and saved myself about a million or so in loses. People at Merrill Lynch and TD Ameritrade called me over and over, day and night, to tell me I was nuts. It worked out all right. What hasn't worked out right is standing scared on the sidelines, slowly getting back in while waiting for Armageddon for almost four years and the second crash which hasn't happened. That's OK, because most of us cannot predict crashes. I certainly can't, maybe I'm too dumb.

The difference this time is that they all know it's coming and they now have joined themselves at the hip with the banks and the large multinationals. They will do anything and everything, including breaking the law (and disclosing it after the election) to keep the rally going. It may be a small rally, or even a little flat, but they are going to keep it up there as long as they can because they know that their hides will be in danger if they don't. I'll even predict that the banks, besides finding a way to hire in the event the numbers are too low, will give state and local governments as well as labor huge, cheap loans to keep the party going. California and in particular Illinois will be bailed out. I'll even bet BAC will be the first at the gate to lend out cheap money....again.

If J6P is scared and they all get out of the market, we know now (not in 2007) that just HFT and other tricks can make the market go slowly higher no matter how bad the news. Wall Street will be glad to help out with the volumes and create a faux rising market. It's in their interest and that's something they didn't know how to do until 2009-2010. The market is now rigged to steadily improve, overcoming any bad news unless it is really catastrophic, thanks to HFT and other tools. 2008-2012 has shown us that, hasn't it?

You are totally correct in that there will be a massive collapse. It's going to happen. I have no doubt of it. It will be a crash that may take the country with it. I also believe, like you, that it will be quick. But the question of when is where we disagree.

There are several factors that are out of the control of TPTB, which could trigger a collapse. Some, but not all are:

1. Oil Prices
2. Crop failure
3. Massive natural disaster
4. European collapse
5. Asian slowdown
6. A failure of our armed forces in combat or strategy (very possible)

In the case of Asia and Europe, they have the best of those in those locales working in unison for the common goal of keeping the gig going. This was not so evident in 2007, but today they are working more closely than ever before.

I bet we'll get 3-4 more scares, IMHO. First will be one of Japan, then one from China, then a European one. Lastly will be some sort of natural disaster, maybe in the summer. We are so close to the precipice that we have no safety margins, so any small disaster will turn into a panic. However, I think the big one will be after the election but before the end of the year, regardless of who wins the White House.

A war with Iran is the backup plan if anything out of their control starts the collapse ball rolling. Nothing joins us together and makes us forget economics than a good war generated by the White House.

Rally on, but keep your finger on the trigger and start reducing your exposure that can't be protected quickly.

Which brings us back to the question I asked and never got an answer for in 2008 or ever since.. Where does a non-trader invest in for 2012?