It's Idiot Season!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-30 09:13
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
It's Idiot Season!
 

Grrrr....

There’s a myth in the USA that just won’t go away. It’s this idea that a household balance sheet is somehow comparable to that of the federal government’s. Few myths are more destructive and lead to greater confusion and/or misguided government policy. In recent months this has become a particularly public subject as the debt ceiling debates have raged and the European debt crisis continues. The problem is, the analogy between a sovereign government’s balance sheet and a household’s balance sheet is never accurate. The reason this analogy always fails is due to the difference between being a currency issuer and a currency user.

In the following video I explain briefly why this is such a destructive myth and why this country desperately needs to learn that the burden we leave our children is not a debt burden, but a certain living standard. It’s true that spending money at the government level could reduce this living standard and we could certainly leave our children with a standard of living that is below our own, but what we won’t leave them with is a bill that they need to pay off in the form of some debt burden.

Destructive "myth"?

This is the MMT idiocy and someone ought to feed the people running that crap through a wood chipper feet first.

Notice the "disclaimer", like it's no big deal.

Now let's deconstruct that disclaimer.

Let us presume a 3% (of GDP) budget deficit (note that ours is much higher) over a working man's life, from 20-65 (45 years.)  Let us further assume that the government "prints" this money (either by bond sales or raw) and by doing so adheres to the "MMT" thesis.

When we begin we have a price level that is defined by GDP / (Money + Credit)  We'll define arbitrary units for both -- let's say we have GDP of 10 and (Money + Credit) of 10 as well.  The purchasing power of a unit of "money" (either currency or credit) is thus 1.0.

Now we'll inflate (to "pay" our government deficit) by 3% a year for 45 years.  That is, 1.03 ^ 44

That's 3.6715, which we then multiply the (Money + Credit) line by.

We now have 10 / 36.715 = 0.2724 for the value of a unit of credit or currency.

That is, each unit of currency or credit now buys about one quarter of what it did originally.

THIS is what "reduced standard of living" is, and it applies to you and your children, along with everyone to follow -- forever.

Now certainly, the economy will "expand" in nominal terms when you indulge in this debt binge and as such you'll get "paid more" in nominal terms.  But how much do those earnings expand?  That's the problem you see, and we have 30 years of history to tell us how it expands in relationship to debt:

At no point did we manage to expand GDP by as much or more than we expanded debt through the system.  As such this is always a losing game for the poor bastard in the economy as a whole and in fact is exactly identical to raising taxes or reducing spending (e.g. "austerity") in terms of its impact upon the common person.

The point, folks, is that the premise these MMT schemers are running is to attempt to hide via their "arm-waving" what amounts to an indirect tax that is put upon the entire nation via their outrageous schemes.

If you don't think this is a "debt we're leaving to our next generation" I suppose you can look at it that way, but only if you're honest about what is being done -- which is even worse that a debt to be paid off.  That is, the costs of this policy are immediately and permanently on a forward basis, forever into the future, taxed to both current and all future citizens by destroying their purchasing power!

A cost of living that results in the purchasing power of a unit of currency being debased to the point that nearly FOUR dollars are needed to buy what used to cost one over a mere working man's lifetime is simple and unbridled theft.

In fact, The Coinage Act of 1792 specified that this sort of debasement game was to be punished by death.

Our nation desperately needs to bring back this penalty so that people who promote and execute such schemes get their just "reward."

Disclaimer: Long stout timbers, sharpened steel plates and finished guillotines.

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User Info It's Idiot Season! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Killben
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All the members in the Fed who voted for this policy should thereby be punished by death.

Trades50
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Quote:
In fact, The Coinage Act of 1792 specified that this sort of debasement game was to be punished by death.


There's a line of Federal Reserve and Treasury members that need to be put on the chopping block.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Smacktle
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Why have any national debt at all? All that interest (400 billion a year?) could be used for something else like me not paying so many taxes!

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Bagbalm
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People have to believe this sort of tripe because the alternative is to look at themselves and their actions and know they are criminal and thieves, not by some exotic stretch of law, but by the simplest of common morals any child understands.
Duc888
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....not to mention this guys argument falls apart as soon as the US loses it's "reserve currency" status. Notice China and India now negotiating to use gold payments instead of dollars for oil. Our list of country's' to bomb the **** out of is growing faster than our capability to produce and deliver bombs.

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...burp
Wis/min
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This "we owe it mostly to ourselves" crap was floated by an econ prof years ago.


I didn't buy it then and don't buy it now.

Genesis
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It's both true and immaterial.

Whether you tax the money explicitly to pay the debt or implicitly by destroying purchasing power the effect on the common man is the same.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wis/min
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I meant to to add that the effect is real even if we owe it to ourselves.

There is no free lunch.
Uwe
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KD wrote..
over a working man's life, from 20-65 (45 years.) [...] We now have 10 / 36.715 = 0.2724 for the value of a unit of credit or currency.

I think your estimate is under-stating it. I'm old enough to remember some prices 45 years ago.
* Gasoline was ~$0.30 / gallon.
* Lunch at school was a dime.
* A new car could be had for ~$2000.
* A house in the suburbs could be had for ~$20k.
* And there were still quite a few 90% silver quarters and dimes in circulation.

Prices have increased more like 10x since them.

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Fraudster
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Quote:
not to mention this guys argument falls apart as soon as the US loses it's "reserve currency" status.


Correct, and I doubt we have a decade left before we lose that all important reserve currency status. The process has already begun, and is accelerating to the downside. Maybe, we have another 5 years.

Quote:
Our list of country's' to bomb the **** out of is growing faster than our capability to produce and deliver bombs.


Eventually we would end up with a nuke up our butts.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Genesis
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Oh I said we'd ASSUME a 3% (of GDP) deficit. It has actually been much higher.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bretondog
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Uwe wrote:


"I think your estimate is under-stating it. I'm old enough to remember some prices 45 years ago.
* Gasoline was ~$0.30 / gallon."
...................

Am I the only one who is really sick of all this Arm Waving?
"Desperately" need to change "this"?

I mean what the heck is the chance of anything changing?

I am as old as Uwe and I can see NO CHANCE!
And please do not tell me it will "all come down" as that is as unlikely as any other change.

Breton
Mayorquimby
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I think these guys are actually more sinister than appears at first glance.

They want:

1. Their mistake and fraudulent lending to be 'forgotten' or forgiven.

2. As much inflation as is possible....always.

3. Control.


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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Phev
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"Disclaimer: Long stout timbers, sharpened steel plates and finished guillotines."

To help you choose an efficient model...

http://boisdejustice.com/Home/Home.html

In the chapter "history" of this site you have a video to show you how it was performed...

"THE HANOI EXECUTION VIDEO - APPROX 1915"
Docj
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Bankster Scum wrote..
The reason this analogy always fails is due to the difference between being a currency issuer and a currency user.


Translation - the difference between being someone who can impoverish 99.98% of an entire nation through unsound and unserious fiscal and economic policy and someone so impoverished.

DIAF, Bankster scum.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Falcor
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Had to look up MMT. Wikipedia disambiguation page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMT gave some chuckles: smiley

Quote:
MMT may refer to:

4QMMT or MMT, one of the Dead Sea Scrolls
MacMahon Master theorem in linear algebra
Magical Mystery Tour, the ninth album by The Beatles smiley
Massive Multithreading, or Massively Multithreaded, computer software configured to execute multiple threads
McMaster Musical Theatre smiley
MMT Observatory
Methadone maintenance treatment smiley
Methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl, a gasoline additive to increase the fuel's octane rating
Might and Magic Tribute, a fan project designed by Castle Gobs. smiley
Million metric tons, a deprecated multiple of metric ton
Mini-mental test (see Mini-mental state examination) smiley
Mobile Money Transfers smiley
Modern Monetary Theory, the economic school of thought smiley
Myanmar Time, the time zone in Myanmar or Burma

Imustbenutz
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Pointing out the obvious - Idiot Season officially started Dec. 23, 1913.
Mannfm11
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Though I rarely do 15 posts, why is there a limitation on posts Karl? I can't find it in the various instructions you post.

As far as the topic? The entire system is geared to government stealing from one party and giving to themselves and others. When this game is threatened, they put some monkeys in the trees and have them chant, don't worry, its all free. They don't really give a damn, because most of them will have advanced notice when it is going to blow up and will have the means to steal more property when the time comes.

I just finished reading Rothbards "The Betrayal of the American Right". Rothbard and a few others aligned themselves with those that opposed war. He wrote about as much about big government and its destructiveness that what he brings to the front has creedence. War is totalitarian and it destroys liberty. It wastes resources and creates inflating debt. It enhances the power of the politician and destroys the rights of the private citizen.

Note our war government. Where are we? Haven't you heard the Senate hasn't passed a budget in several years? How is the government operating? Not under the normal bounds of the Constitution! War has made the President of the US a dictator. One on rotation, but one all the same. We have lost the checks on big government and one of the biggest checks involves the money.

When this blows, we are going to have to go back to gold. I know a lot of people, including Karl and to some extent myself aren't exactly crazy about gold, but if there is no reserve banking allowed, gold works. Plus, who is going to take our money once the MMT ****ers destroy it? Who is going to take any credit money around the world? The debt is all going to have to be repudiated. The pawn shop wants your property ahead of time and at high rates. There won't be any wooden nickels passed for a long time after this mess blows. I doubt these people pushing these ideas are that stupid, but instead lying on purpose to achieve their ends.

When are we going to realize that instead of electing another government that is going to fall into the bureaucratic trap, we need to get rid of most government? The Federal government needs to be 30% of its size at best and that 30% should be nothing but Social Security (I don't believe we are going to be able to get rid of the national pension system) and mainland defense and a few other minor departments. Gone should be the IRS and the income tax, as the very system of income tax is totalitarian in nature and costly on the country to effect. We no longer have any winable wars, so why get into one? Iraq? We spent many times their GDP against a visible army of a government most of the people of the country didn't like. Next war, put all the politicians kids in the fox holes at the start, not in positions back in headquarters.

Then you have those guys that say war is good for the economy. I will tell you what. Go order you a new car. We will finance it where you don't have to pay for anything but interest at a very good rate for 30 years. Now we are going to hire some idiot to drive it off a cliff a few days after it rolls off the line. Don't worry, we will get you another one under the same terms. You can just pay double interest is all and we will loan you the interest. But, don't despair when the idiot kid drives it off the cliff next week. Now imagine you are the guy that is getting paid making that car? Well, you are gainfully employed and if they quit making new cars to run off the cliff, that guy is going to lose his job. But, what has he provided for the economy? His produce keeps disappearing.

I am beginning to understand the real basis of Austrian economics. You have a war, you have to keep having wars as long as you can borrow money to fund them. The war is the bubble, peace breaks the bubble. Note we have never quit raising huge armies and building war machines. You have a housing boom, you have to keep having a housing boom. Sanity and the fact that people can only live in so many houses and afford so many empty ones breaks the bubble. Those engaged in the bubble no longer have a job. You have a Free **** Army bubble. You quit paying the FSA with FS, all those people working for nothing no longer get paid. You have a medical bubble and this is the most damnable bubble of all because it is one people are going to sob and scream about and it is one people tolerate. Break the bubble and what we call GDP, which is nothing more than counting chips run off at a counterfeit coin factory and those associated with the bubble quit getting raises and free **** out of the govenment. Most of government is associated with producing bubbles, whether it be the military, housing, welfare or medicine.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Eaglewwit
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The effect on the common man may be the same mathematically, but emotionally there is a big difference. The Sheeple have been programmed to accept inflation as a way of life. In this regard the author is correct that government debt does not matter. In fact until the thing blows sky high, he is right and we are wrong.
Mayorquimby
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Quote:
When this blows, we are going to have to go back to gold. I know a lot of people, including Karl and to some extent myself aren't exactly crazy about gold, but if there is no reserve banking allowed, gold works. Plus, who is going to take our money once the MMT ****ers destroy it? Who is going to take any credit money around the world? The debt is all going to have to be repudiated. The pawn shop wants your property ahead of time and at high rates. There won't be any wooden nickels passed for a long time after this mess blows. I doubt these people pushing these ideas are that stupid, but instead lying on purpose to achieve their ends.


I could not disagree more. There was more volatility and pain under a gold standard than anything going on today. Look at banking crises in the 19th century, the GD etc. Gold will not affect anything. If only it were so simple...

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Mannfm11
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Mayor, you posted the $64,000 words, banking crisis. We don't have a money crisis. We are engaged in the end game of a scam known as credit banking. How is a system where you are loaned your liabilities going to stand for long? We are dealing with a system that is terminal due to its construction and we are out of phony money to keep it going. Those who receive the money can't be paid because it never existed. The problem with gold is it is limited. Surprise, the current system is limited as well. Infinity doesn't exist in reality. We are miles beyond the limits of absurdity and have reached the stage of delusion. If profits and losses were put where they occurred instead of socialized, most of the economic problems we have would disappear over night. The trade imbalance game would have ceased long ago.

We have to move to a system where GDP isn't counted in phony units. The idea GDP can be measured by how much we dump in the sanitary landfills has to stop. How much goes down the toilet isn't real. We are well into the flim flam game of fraud and all frauds that go on long enough are exposed.

The question that must be asked is can the world expect to remain stupid forever. My statement about gold rests in the fact that people won't stay stupid. The flow of international funds flows back to the sovereign debt of the US. The debt is going to be repudiated. There is no mathematical solution We are running out of good collateral and the entire game rests on continued inflation or collapse. So, after we are in fact broke, I guess the world is going to continue to ship up their oil and their labor in return for defunct IOU's?

You can't buy into the idea that this game will be run again, right after the collapse. People seem to believe that a government can print money, but there isn't a currency in the world that didn't originally start out based on gold or be linked to one that was based on gold. The collateral behind the currency is debt, but the fact the dollar started out in gold is the only thing that allowed for the debts in the first place. FDR pulled the trick with debt. Breton Woods designated the international exchange of the dollar was $35 per gold ounce. The rest of the world based their issue on their supply of dollar substitutes or gold, most preferring to trust the good faith and credit of the US and draw interest rather than take the gold.(bad faith is the opposite of good faith and we have turned to bad faith in order to cover up the fraud. Look at Karl's debt charts if you don't believe it, along with the snake oil salesmen they parade out on the scene) France had other ideas and Nixon closed the gold window. The IMF and its henchmen came in to reinforce the debt link on the dollar and we carried on.

You need a nest egg to get a chicken to come to the nest and lay eggs. The nest egg to get the debt game in dollars started was gold exchange. If they blow this mess up, they are going to need a new chicken and a new nest egg. A consumable won't work. A new series of IOU's put out by a bankrupt won't work either. If it does, people are just as stupid as the MMT guys. Fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me as I am just a damn fool.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Mayorquimby
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Mann- As has been discussed here ad nauseum - fiat currency simply needs to be respected the way Karl wants it to be. With sound collateral, an end to bailouts and strict and enforced regulation, fiat is far more preferable to anything else out there. Now - if you want to argue that the temptation is too great for those who control the monetary system receive most of its benefits and will therefore always be biased towards cheapening the money supply, then that particular issue must be addressed. If you want to argue that gvmts are elected by running deficits and giving the sheeple more than they earned which requires turning fiat currency into a ponzi, fine. I agree. But gold achieves nothing with regards to limiting debt accrual. The fact that gold IS limited and human potential is UNlimited means gold's days are numbered and over any length of time, will be useless as a currency since currency needs to be flexible enough to grow with the population and economic forces at play in any society.

Short version:

Default bad debt
End bailouts
Bring credit aggregates in line with gdp per the Federal Reserve Act
Stop the bs
and enact a Balanced Budget Amendment

and we are good to go for many many decades.

Quote:
The question that must be asked is can the world expect to remain stupid forever.


I think we all know the answer to that!

----------
They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.

Cobra2411
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Philly P.a.
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We're not leaving our children debt, just a different standard of living...

Starving, destitute and homeless is a standard of living. It may not be the standard of living you want but it is a standard...

See it just depends on what your definition of IS is...

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Government: A device that allows you to get blind ass drunk and your children get the hangover.
Abn0rmal
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Cobra2411 wrote..
We're not leaving our children debt, just a different standard of living...

Starving, destitute and homeless is a standard of living. It may not be the standard of living you want but it is a standard...
The author is talking about the standard of living of the political class's children.
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