Gingrich Wins SC -- Smear Campaign's Own Goal
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-22 11:26
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
Ignore this thread
Gingrich Wins SC -- Smear Campaign's Own Goal
 

Well now this is interesting...

Gingrich locked up a decisive victory in the state. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Gingrich pulled in 41 percent of the vote, to Romney's 27 percent. Rick Santorum finished in third with 17 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 13 percent. Herman Cain, who dropped out before the first contest, garnered 1 percent.

If you remember there was a "bombshell" dropped on Gingrich just before the voting with his ex-wife arguing that he asked for an open marriage so he could screw Calista's brains out while still being married to his (at the time) wife.

But let's remember a few things.

First, Marianne pretty much stole Gingrich from his first wife.  She was younger (and didn't have cancer.)  So that Marianne got hosed by the same game with Calista is rather ironic -- and, in my opinion, just desserts.  If you do something like this in the first instance, that is sleeping with a married man and his marriage breaks up as a consequence (in whole or part) and you "win", you shouldn't be surprised when the same thing happens to you later on.

This doesn't make Newt any less of a douchebag for doing what he did -- he is a douchebag and I cannot support any political candidate with that set of personal ethics.  I understand divorce and it does happen for perfectly-legitimate reasons.  But if you want to screw someone else you first ask for the divorce from your present spouse and then start hosing the new woman (or man.)  If your pants (or dress) come off first you've demonstrated that you are incapable of keeping a vow.  While we all sin and we all do things we regret in our lives in this case Newt did it twice, which means (1) it wasn't a singular mistake, and (2) he wasn't in any way remorseful and (3) he did not correct his behavior.  In other words he didn't think there was anything wrong with what he did, other than getting caught.

I disagree but that's my call based on my analysis.  You're welcome to your own opinion.

In any event mudslinging of this sort has been a time-honored (and successful) way of knocking off Republican candidates and lawmakers for a couple of decades.  It doesn't work on Democrats and many would argue that the real issue there is a difference in professed ethics and thus the problem is hypocrisy (rather than the act itself.)

Well, maybe yes and maybe no, but this time when the hurlers pulled the pin on Mr. Grenade instead of waiting until it was hurled at Gingrich it immediately exploded, blowing back on the other candidates and media.

Oops.

The question is whether this marks the end of the use of this tactic or if it's an anomaly.  We'll eventually find out, but I suspect the mudslingers will be a bit more careful next time now that the delay fuse burn time on those moral bombs has been shown to be a bit unreliable.

The results in South Carolina take the race to an effective two-way deal -- Gingrich and Romney.  Ron Paul was behind Santorum, pointing out what I've said since the primaries began -- he's wrong in two very serious areas, and he blew up his run for the White House by being wrong in these two places.

Indeed, if he was right in just one of them (foreign policy linked to energy) he'd be in first place.

If you read Leverage you'll find that I spend a lot of ink on this point -- because it is critical to both understand and correct.  We have a monstrous overseas military presence precisely because we've spent 30 years refusing to solve our energy issues and behind every unit of economic output is a unit of energy.

If you don't understand this and thus why we must resolve the energy issue at the same time we resolve our over-reach in the military realm you are unfit to be President.

While none of the Republicans "get it" in this regard in totality they're approaching this from the perspective of leaving the military spending alone.  That won't work either because we can't maintain this level of spending and increases the Republicans want, but the voters have a visceral understanding that if we leave the foreign entanglements without addressing the fact that a huge part of our energy supply comes from these unstable parts of the world we're instantly and completely screwed and in South Carolina they responded to that rhetoric by rejecting the man pushing the "walk away" point of view. In that regard they are exactly correct and given the choices available to them, none of whom espouse the correct position, they voted for "least bad" which is all they could do in a primary contest.

In many ways the monetary policy issue is even more important, simply because we are running out of rope on our national debt-addiction rappelling adventure and the floor is still 100' down.  That's a serious problem -- and "gold standards" do not (in fact cannot!) fix it.  The only fix that works is to demand and enforce a zero-CPI standard with honest statistics, along with an end to federal government borrowing -- period.  "Hard money" .vs. "Fiat money" is immaterial; if you permit fraud in the monetary and credit system, as we have, the rest simply does not matter and yet if you put a cork in the frauds and lock up the scammers then you quickly come to the conclusion that allowing a handful of producers of some metal, the majority of which are foreign entities, is the last group you want running your monetary policy!

The Paulites get this wrong and so does Ron Paul himself despite the historical fact that the United States had massive inflationary bubbles and detonations of them during the time it was on the Gold Standard.  1873 anyone (as just one example.)

The real problem in 1873 as with all other similar blowups was the issuance of bogus debt instruments unbacked by anything.  In the case of 1873 concentration was in railroads and related construction all financed by long-duration bonds (and therefore subject to high degrees of price risk due to their duration) but which were entirely-speculative and in fact for which there was no actual demand in the economy for the services (transportation to be provided by said railroads) at a level sufficient to meet the intended expense.  It didn't help that we were playing games with our exports (and Europe with its imports) much as China and the US are today, effectively hiding the bubble's impact for a period of time and allowing it to inflate to ridiculous size.  When the over-leveraged positions became exposed the game collapsed and the Long Depression followed.

Naked shorting is against the law when it is done with stocks for the specific reason that it is counterfeiting.  It is the representation in the marketplace of something that does not exist, diluting the value of all legitimate copies of the same thing.  By the same token issuance of unbacked credit is in effect counterfeiting of a nation's currency and thus has the effect of diluting all of the legitimate units of currency in the system.

When naked shorts are exposed for what they are the unwind is vicious, immediate and destructive.  The solution to these problems cannot be found in more fraud through shifting these counterfeit securities to the legitimate balance sheet.  It is only found through (1) acceptance of the unwind that must occur, (2) punishment leveled at those who committed the offense and (3) strong forward sanctions to prevent it from happening again.

We must fix our monetary system or we will, irrespective of a hard or fiat currency, continue to have the same problems appear over and over again.

Exactly none of the Republican candidates get this right and yet it is the central issue that must be front-and-center in this campaign as the monetary rope has run out.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last
User Info Gingrich Wins SC -- Smear Campaign's Own Goal in forum [Market-Ticker]
Zone5
Posts: 94
Incept: 2009-03-07
Green
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Ron Paul doesn't argue that bubbles are impossible with sound money -- they are. But they are limited in size, and when they finally blow, the government shouldn't try to prop them up.

With regard to energy, only 13% of our oil comes from the middle east. Europe gets substantially more IIFC. The Arabs need to sell it to someone, I don't see why having a huge military presence overseas makes our ability to procure oil any easier than if we were not intervening in that area and simply being a neutral buyer.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1228
Incept: 2011-04-14

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Right again Karl, Energy, Defense, and Stable money are the three legs of a campain that will win.

We spend so much on defense that we could have skimmed off enough $ to have fully paid for a new nuclear plant every year for the past 30 years and we would not be able to see a difference in our military.

Even with their problems 30 more plants would have helped us to electrify more of the country and thus woud have reduced our dependence on foreign energy and hydrocarbon energy.

Flap

----------
Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Boughtthefarm
Posts: 382
Incept: 2009-12-06

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Belief in the possible success of a centrally planned, politician run Manhattan project/energy policy is akin to belief in the infamous skittle ****ting unicorn. Get the government out of the way and let the market decide what works and what doesn't.
Obseedian
Posts: 11872
Incept: 2007-07-26
Silver
BBRY Central
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It's true that you can get the same kind of frauds under a gold standard as well, but the key difference is that the market can call out that fraud much more effectively. Under an irredeemable system, the market can still do this but the govt has the power to overrule the market via its printing press and deficit spending.

I would argue that even though inflationary bursts and subsequent depressions under a gold standard are painful, it it the only way to prevent govt meddling in the market that would only make things worse in the long run.

----------
Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
Ghopper
Posts: 2317
Incept: 2011-06-11

Staten Island, NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I can't help but think the entire 'ex-wife' thing was planned by Newt's campaign.

It turned his single biggest weakness (morality) into a weapon that shot him into the lead and makes the issue hard to attack him with.

It really had no risk as well. Romney was a lock for nomination without this 'event' and the way all the 'conservatives' gathered around him was very suspicious.

Reason: spelling
R2judge
Posts: 576
Incept: 2008-04-13
Green
Burbank CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"The real problem in 1873 as with all other similar blowups was the issuance of bogus debt instruments unbacked by anything."

Sounds a lot like the 700 trillion dollar unregulated derivatives bubble, unbacked by anything.
Zone5
Posts: 94
Incept: 2009-03-07
Green
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The fact that a guy who was the only Speaker ever censured, fined, and kicked out of Congress, who has made millions lobbying, has cheated on all his wives for years on end, who supports the global warming agenda and TARP bailouts, who supports an unconstitutional mandate to make individuals buy health insurance, just won the SC primary means only one thing:

The Republican party is officially completely disassociated from the average American voter and has zero chance of beating Obama. I thought McCain nomination was an aberration but it wasn't. The Republican party has gone completely off the tracks. Time for a third party. The Republican party needs to go the way of the Whigs.
Jake3463
Posts: 769
Incept: 2010-03-06
Green
Allentown
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"In any event mudslinging of this sort has been a time-honored (and successful) way of knocking off Republican candidates and lawmakers for a couple of decades. It doesn't work on Democrats and many would argue that the real issue there is a difference in professed ethics and thus the problem is hypocrisy (rather than the act itself.)"

David Vitter is still a Senator and Elliot Sptizer is commenting on CNN.

I think it has to do with more on how much you are willing to stick it out than your political party affiliation.

Gary Hart is in a think tank and Bill Clinton is an Ex-President. Both had affair scandals. One just decided to stay around.
Dirtyshirt
Posts: 873
Incept: 2009-07-31
Green
39°56'2.28"N / 122° 5'26.54"W
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mr. Denninger, I don't disagree with you in regards to Ron Paul and these two issues.

And while Ron Paul hasn't been able to advance his message, he's the only major candidate with that message. Yet his message, IMO, is one that deserves to be treated as a cry for rally more then any other. Curious how his colleagues won't touch it. Ron Paul throws a perfect pass every time and it bounces off the chests of wide open receivers.

He stands on stage many times with those very same receivers as they try to convince me the ball he throws is foul.

Out of all the major candidates it's blatantly obvious which one, and message, is most feared by TPTB. At the same time it's equally obvious all the others are repeat/lunacy candidates. And at no time since Ross Perot have I witnessed such a clear difference in candidates.

There is an ample supply of discord among very smart people on these forums that indicate we know precisely what the problems are. From my observations, those problems stem directly from the policy's of TPTB.

We now have exactly the one message and candidate that is so utterly anti TPTB here and now ready to be smeared in their faces by the people. And again, IMO, the only candidate that can beat Obama.

Four years of any of these candidates or current President will do exactly nothing other then perpetuate TPTB. There is only one that will, if nothing else, invite an obstacle to what has been their smooth and unchallenged plans.

All the major candidates have the same two issues at fault that you hold against Ron Paul. I suspect they in addition possess even more. And yet those candidates have zero in their ideology or messages that would overcome the literal lunacy.

I'm not going to waste this golden opportunity to be part of a movement that is feared by TPTB. And I will continue to focus on every other opportunity at poking a stick at them in ways that I can.
Ron Paul, IMO, just happens to be the biggest stick at the moment.

As always Mr. Denninger, thank you for all you do, as I have great appreciation and respect for it. Please excuse that we do not share this strategy in regards to Ron Paul.
Crzymorse
Posts: 1193
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Romney is in deep trouble now. His personal ambition is to be president. Unfortunately he has no vision for the country other than being president. That's his real problem. Gingrich, is the ultimate narcissist, but he has a grandiose vision of being a great president. The one thing Gingrich has going for him is everybody knows he's a douchebag so it's hard for the media to expose anything shocking to anybody at anytime anymore. That's are real problem for Obama, you can rationalize away Gingrich's past. The more that gets exposed in the primary the more Obama has to run on his record.

Obama's presidency is defined by bowing to corporate America and the banks. If the economy puts up 3-4 million jobs this year, he wins hands down as Gingrich will look like a huge risk. If we slog along this year, Obama is probably toast. My guess is the economy bails Obama out.

Zzt
Posts: 3037
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
Glendale az
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Comment on Newt : If elected you will get one of two outcomes : a gem or a turd in a punch bowl but nothing in between. ( The 'gem' label is up to ones opinion of course so lets just say considerable improvement on recent Presidents )

Go ahead and label him the turd before he is elected if you want to ( most of you will ). I will reserve my judgement until I see the results of his possible election.

If nominated , I will vote for Newt and for the first time in a long time I will vote for a candidate where I will feel ( 51%-49% ) that my vote may have a positive affect.

* Note - 51%-49% confidence. That aint much but it is the best odds I feel I can get and it is better than no odds at all.


In the future Americans , due to the hard work of men like RP and the spreading of the good word by men like KD and other bloggers , may actually have a choice. In todays current politics , the choice is slim but it is there never the less. Sometimes ya just gotta take what you can get.
Tesla
Posts: 15542
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
With regard to energy, only 13% of our oil comes from the middle east. Europe gets substantially more IIFC. The Arabs need to sell it to someone, I don't see why having a huge military presence overseas makes our ability to procure oil any easier than if we were not intervening in that area and simply being a neutral buyer.


I quite agree. Pull our military out of its 170+ overseas bases, leaving only 3-4 carrier groups to police international trade routes. Bring the boys and girls home and cut the military down to a decent home defense force.

When/if the oil-producing countries refuse to sell to us, then offer them a 25% premium per barrel. Do you really think that they'd refuse to sell to us ? If we were paying the Saudis, or Libya, or Venezuela, $125/bbl rather than the 100/bbl the rest of the world offers, do you seriously think they'd turn down the money ? Yet that 25/bbl would be a ****load less cost to us than our current military posture and the associated enormous VA benefits/hospitals we now need to support our vets.

----------
"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams

Obseedian
Posts: 11872
Incept: 2007-07-26
Silver
BBRY Central
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It would be quite interesting if the US did in fact go energy-independent and brought the troops home. That would leave the Eurocrats in quite the predicament, would it not? smiley

----------
Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
Gen_maximus57
Posts: 4580
Incept: 2007-09-03
Green
Tampa
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'll take obozo over Newt
Zzt
Posts: 3037
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
Glendale az
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Max57 - You sir, are drunk. I might add that the next time you contemplate cutting off your nose to get back at your face you reevaluate your position.
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
How would Newt ever be a gem?
Loves2learn
Posts: 1210
Incept: 2009-01-28
Silver
The free (for now) state of Kansas
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
While I think it's necessary to pay attention to the election and what the candidates are saying, the only reason for the attention is to see who TPTB have decided who should "run things" the next 4 yrs.

----------
A poor person's farm may produce much food,
but injustice sweeps it away. Proverbs 13:23
The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
Henry Kissinger, New York Times, Oct. 28, 1973
Chris92346
Posts: 1314
Incept: 2009-03-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Karl I know you preach very heavily against inflation.



HOWEVER if you have a low stable and predictable (all three of these are important) rate of inflation can't this be good for an economy?


What do you think of the theory that if there was no inflation people would stop taking risks with their money causing problems?
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No. Stop social engineering with my money.

The only way you can guarantee inflation is by guaranteeing to print money when the risks taken don't result in the growth rate you want.

Zzt
Posts: 3037
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
Glendale az
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bill - The answer to your question is in the post you are soooo sneakily trying to denigrate. Nice try.
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'll openly denigrate it, but I hardly need to, you're going to vote for Newt. He clearly doesn't get any of the problems Karl highlights, so the rest of whatever he'd do is irrelevant.

Why would he be worth a vote?

Zone5
Posts: 94
Incept: 2009-03-07
Green
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Most people think Ron Paul has no chance, he's a protest candidate, just running to promote a message. They wonder why else run and collect delegates? What can he do with them?

I've given a significant chunk of change to the Ron Paul campaign and gotten to know some of the insiders. There IS an end game. The plan as of now:

Accept nomination of Constitutional party and/or Libertarian party prior to Republican Convention to establish that RP WILL BE running in the general election, then go to the brokered convention with second largest set of delegates behind Romney, and let the Republicans to either decide to nominate RP or face certain defeat. Both Gingrich and Santorum aren't even on the ballot in states which in sum will send over 500 delegates to the convention so they're a non-issue, FWIW.

It's actually a brilliant plan.

Genesis
Posts: 130772
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
HOWEVER if you have a low stable and predictable (all three of these are important) rate of inflation can't this be good for an economy?

Because it's theft. You're FORCING people to take risks with funds they wish to save. Even at a 2% rate of inflation over a working man's life (45 years) it works out to a 143% cumulative rate.
Quote:
What do you think of the theory that if there was no inflation people would stop taking risks with their money causing problems?

"Risks" should be (1) voluntarily taken and (2) have a high enough probability of positive return (in the eye of the investor) to be worth funding.

Doing what we're doing now and have done produces MASSIVE malinvestment (e.g. "Pets.com") -- "investments" that on any sort of rational evaluation make no sense whatsoever.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Zzt
Posts: 3037
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
Glendale az
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mr Bill - Go away. Jeeeeeze ! Pulleeeeeeze ?
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 3  First123Last