Hint: Unsecured Lending Is Dangerous
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-19 10:02
by Karl Denninger
in International
Ignore this thread
Hint: Unsecured Lending Is Dangerous
 

There's a particular piece of idiocy that is distressingly common and stupid -- the idea that lending money to governments (that is, buying government bonds) should be "cheap" or the "risk free" return rate.

This is false -- it is a convenient lie that is intentionally promulgated by both banksters and governments for their benefit and to your detriment.

The reason this is false is that all lending to sovereigns is inherently unsecured.  That is, the only thing you have is a bare promise of repayment backed by the government's willingness and ability to tax the citizens.

This is not assured and in fact is under the control of the citizens themselves and not the "debtor."

Now we have this:

LONDON — Hedge funds have been known to use hardball tactics to make money. Now they have come up with a new one: suing Greece in a human rights court to make good on its bond payments.

The novel approach would have the funds arguing in the European Court of Human Rights that Greece had violated bondholder rights, though that could be a multiyear project with no guarantee of a payoff. And it would not be likely to produce sympathy for these funds, which many blame for the lack of progress so far in the negotiations over restructuring Greece’s debts.

They are of course free to sue. They might even win.  Good luck trying to collect.

That's the problem, of course.  You can sue and you can even get a judgment, but collecting it is another matter.  Hedge funds do not have a monopoly on force, which means they can't shoot their way to success (well, not legally anyway.)

What I'd do were I to be Greece would be to tell all external creditors to go stick it where the sun doesn't shine.  No negotiation, no "haircut", simply this -- your bonds are worthless.  Goodbye, and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Then don't leave the Euro.

Yes, this would instantly slam the door on further borrowing.  So what?  Greece needs to do that anyway.  They, like the rest of the world's governments, need to stop spending more than they can tax.  This means a massive cut in the size of government but this cannot be avoided no matter what is done.

So do it, and instead of sapping off part of your tax stream to pay creditors, don't pay the external ones at all.  Pay the internal ones but issue no more debt -- period.  Retire what you have for Greek banks and pension funds, but not one penny to outsiders, and forbid trading of the instruments -- whoever owns 'em on the day you do this is the beneficial owner -- period.

Sure, this would be controversial.  It would probably cause other lenders to jack up the cost of money for governments around the world, assuming Greece got away with it (and short of someone invading them, they would.)

That's good too -- it's about time that people recognized that unsecured lending is dangerous and should come with a high interest rate -- including when the borrower is a government.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Hint: Unsecured Lending Is Dangerous in forum [Market-Ticker]
Margincalltime
Posts: 1025
Incept: 2008-04-01
Green
NJ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
KD, you obviously don't "get it". There will be no losses for anyone. Even if you decide not to pay anymore, you get to stay in the "collateral" for an indefinite amount of time. How cool is that?!

Otiswild
Posts: 5621
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
Inside you, the force is!
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
So do it, and instead of sapping off part of your tax stream to pay creditors, don't pay the external ones at all. Pay the internal ones but issue no more debt -- period. Retire what you have for Greek banks and pension funds, but not one penny to outsiders, and forbid trading of the instruments -- whoever owns 'em on the day you do this is the beneficial owner -- period.


Howsabout the US do the same, or only stop paying on those bonds held by non-democratic countries unless they satisfy US Constitutional freedom requirements in a certain period of time, picking a particular date to determine holder of record for each eligible bond serial/CUSIP.
Mrbill
Posts: 7851
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
unless they satisfy US Constitutional freedom requirements


So, when would the US become eligible? HA
Otiswild
Posts: 5621
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
Inside you, the force is!
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
^^ Agree, the Fed should also be subject smiley
Steelhead23
Posts: 2042
Incept: 2008-09-09
Green
Portland OR
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I am not so certain that "the people" would be allowed to make this decision. Let us recall that the ECB virtually installed Papademos, a banker, to head Greece's crisis government. John Perkins (Confessions of an Economic Hit Man) posits that bankster threats are very, very real. That is, if Papademos did as you suggest, I would not underwrite his life insurance.

----------
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated

Genesis
Posts: 130746
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
The nice thing about being a government is that you can issue letters of marque and reprisal.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Fraudster
Posts: 4174
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Article 1 of the United States Constitution lists issuing letters of marque and reprisal in Section 8 as one of the enumerated powers of Congress, alongside the power to tax and to "declare War."


Quote:
The issue of marque and reprisal was raised before Congress after the September 11 attacks[31] and again on July 21, 2007, by Congressman Ron Paul. The attacks were defined as acts of "air piracy" and the Marque and Reprisal Act of 2001 was introduced, which would have granted the president the authority to use letters of marque and reprisal against the specific terrorists, instead of warring against a foreign state. The terrorists were compared to pirates in that they are difficult to fight by traditional military means.[32] Congressman Paul on April 15, 2009, also advocated the use of letters of marque to address the issue of Somali pirates operating in the Gulf of Aden. However, the bills Congressman Paul introduced were not enacted into law.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_of_m....

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Genesis
Posts: 130746
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep. Bankster baseball for $100 Alex..

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ilyachern
Posts: 796
Incept: 2007-06-26
Green
North Miami Beach Florida
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Mr Thompson: How are we going to pay our government employees?
Galt: Fire your government employees.
Mr. Thompson: Oh no. That is not under production, that is distribution.

Need I say more?????

----------
The Fed won't be winding down their balance sheet. Their balance sheet will be winding down the Fed.
Level 9 9/23/09
Peterm99
Posts: 4986
Incept: 2009-03-21
Gold
SoCal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Genesis wrote..
What I'd do were I to be Greece would be to tell all external creditors to go stick it where the sun doesn't shine. . . Then don't leave the Euro.
The "conventional wisdom" I have heard is that Greece should default and go back to the drachma. I don't understand the benefit to Greece in NOT leaving the Eurozone if they default.

Can you explain?

----------
". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Marvinmartian
Posts: 750
Incept: 2011-03-16
Green
Pasadena, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
As I understand it, the ECB owns a bunch of Greek debt purchased from banks.

The current haircut has private parties receiving the haircut, but not the ECB.

Just another way to make banks "special". No wonder the hedge funds are furious.
Genesis
Posts: 130746
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Peterm -- why devalue? All that does is try to tax everyone in the country. A tax is a tax is a tax.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Peterm99
Posts: 4986
Incept: 2009-03-21
Gold
SoCal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Genesis wrote..
Why devalue?
For purely internal transactions (i.e., products produced and consumed entirely within Greece), devaluation or not makes very little difference. A devaluation means that exports will generate a lot more drachma income, as they would likely sell their products at the same Euro prices as currently. (ETA: Actually, they could drop their current Euro prices somewhat in order to increase export levels and still come out ahead drachma-wise.) Further, it will reduce the importation of everything (except the necessities, e.g., petroleum) thus, encouraging domestic production of many products they currently import.

Therefore, it all depends on whether the value of petroleum (and other absolute necessities) imports are less than the value of exports plus tourism-based revenue. Greece's trade deficit is ~2 billion Euro annually.
tradingeconomics.com wrote..
Greece's main exports are fruit, vegetables, olive oil, textiles, steel, aluminum, cement, and various manufactured items such as clothing, foodstuffs, refined petroleum and petroleum-based products. Greece remains a net importer of industrial and capital goods, foodstuffs, and petroleum.
I would think that devaluation would cause the import of "industrial and capital goods" to fall, providing an impetus for domestic industrialization. I don't know if their "foodstuffs" imports are because they are incapable of feeding themselves or whether it's equivalent to the US phenomenon of importing foodstuffs from Chile, etc. (i.e., we don't need to, it's just nice to have). Petroleum is obviously a necessity they're gonna have to pay for one way or another, although with devaluation, the price increases will tend to drive down the quantities imported.

Finally, moving to the drachma will decouple them from any shenanigans the ECB may or may not pull. They will then be able to adjust their own currency rather than having its value dictated to them by banksters seeking to benefit themselves and the more powerful countries of the Eurozone. I don't know how to go about quantifying that benefit, but I assume it could be huge.

So, the way I see it, devaluation provides a lot of benefits, but I don't know how to evaluate the magnitudes of the pros and cons.

----------
". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Genesis
Posts: 130746
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
There is no "valuation dictated by others"; the price of goods and services (including labor) is set in the market.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Peterm99
Posts: 4986
Incept: 2009-03-21
Gold
SoCal
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Bad mixup of concepts on my part.

What I should have said was that, decoupled from the Euro, Greece would be able to adjust their internal money/credit supply based on the best interests of their own economy rather than being dragged along by the ECB's decisions, which are based on non-Greek considerations.

----------
". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2661
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Oh hell, Obama will just go in to Greece after getting UN approval under responsibility to protect... once the human rights court finds Greece guilty of violating the human rights of bond holders.

----------
Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Genesis
Posts: 130746
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
They still can internally. The first one is "no government borrowing."

With that, there's no problem and there's considerable benefit to using the Euro in that it's easier for trade purposes (no exchanges required.)

The entire premise of "issue your own" on exit is to permit devaluation -- that is, effective back-door taxation. That's bull**** -- tax people right up front and match services to tax receipts.

That's all.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tz
Posts: 785
Incept: 2007-09-18
Green
varies
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I still say they should print euros - literally. Duplicate the serial numbers or use the german suffix. As sovereign, they can get the ink and presses, and ignore the treaties. Send the pallates of euros to the creditors.

----------
"I am become debt, destroyer of worlds"
Stuart
Posts: 28
Incept: 2011-12-15

Phoenix
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Sovereign debt jubilee is just the beginning. You think it will stop there?

The instant this happens, the entire system freezes up. Too many counterparty defaults would leave no trust in the system. THAT is all we have with fiat money.
TRUST.

You would have to do a complete reset.

Uwe
Posts: 6451
Incept: 2009-01-03
Gold A True American Patriot!
19446
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
I still say they should print euros - literally. Duplicate the serial numbers or use the german suffix. As sovereign, they can get the ink and presses, and ignore the treaties. Send the pallates of euros to the creditors.

I do not think the rest of Europe would be amused at all. Wars have started in Europe over less. Much less.

-Uwe-

----------
“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Morla
Posts: 815
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Stuart wrote..
THAT is all we have with fiat money. TRUST.
It's a shame then that trust doesn't grow on trees.. Honor among thieves only goes so far. Of course if you have paper backed by a gold standard that relies on trust too. Hell, pretty much any human construct involves some level of trust, the rule of law is what matters here not the currency system.

----------
Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ