Unicorns Are Mythical Creatures....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-16 12:47
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Unicorns Are Mythical Creatures....
 

... and that pretty colored thing you're about to stick in your mouth, which came from the back side of the alleged unicorn, is not candy.

How many times do we have to go over this?  How long will you, dear reader, continue to suspend disbelief and basic logic along with 5th grade mathematics?

Take a personal inventory on this MLK day.  Let us presume that today, at 12:00 Noon local time, you are fired and discover that all of your credit (visa/mc/discover/amex/store cards/etc) have been revoked.  The Federal Government comes up on the TV and radio, telling you that all social payments (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Disability, Unemployment, etc) have been suspended as there's no money to pay them.

How bad is it?

Think about your car sitting outside at work.  Is there enough gas in it to get home?  If not, do you have actual cash in your wallet or in your bank checking account? 

How much food is in your refrigerator and pantry?  Again, how much cash do you have access to?  Actual economic surplus -- funds you earned and stored in some form or fashion.

How long could you pay the electric, gas and water bills?  Keep food in the pantry and gasoline in the car?  Take that honest assessment, right here, right now.

10% of the people reading this would not make it home.  Their cars have less fuel in them than it takes to get there, and they have zero cash in their wallets and nothing in the bank.  They literally would not make it to their house.

More than half of the people reading this would not make it through the first two weeks.  They have insufficient food and supplies in the house to last that long and do not have enough money in their checking accounts to manage to pay the rent (or mortgage) gas, electric and water bills plus fill the refrigerator for two weeks

If you want to know why the government has refused to address the problems we face, that's a big part of the reason.  They know -- factually know -- that this is the situation in front of us.  They also know on a factual basis that Americans have become addicted to the government tit and despite the so-called claim of "rugged individualism" promoted by Reagan and others, almost none actually live this way.

It's not really all that hard, by the way, to fix this over time.  You need to decide that you're not going to smoke that $5 pack of cigarettes or that $6 six-pack of beer, and will instead stash the cash.  You will not go out and spend $30 on a dinner, instead you will spend $4 eating at home.  You will not buy a new car with debt; instead you will find a used one at half the price or less and drive it, because transportation is more important than vanity.  You will not take that expensive vacation because you can't pay for it in cash up front without seriously damaging your reserves -- or you have no reserves at all, and are forced to charge it.

After 2000, and especially after 2007, you'd think people would have learned.  They did not.  To the contrary; the newest "i-scam" is far more important to Americans than having three or six months of cash reserves at hand for when (not if) something goes wrong.

The problems facing Greece, and the imminent default there, should be a further wake-up call.  It's not.  Yet Greece is not the issue with its relatively small stature in the world economy.  Rather, it's everyone else.  Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland (again) and more -- they're all next.  And behind them is Britain and the United States, both of which have made ridiculous political promises and are sustaining them with federal spending they are unwilling -- or unable -- to collect in taxes.

This must, mathematically, end.  It will end.  And when it does you're going to hear much wailing and gnashing of teeth, along with the predictable complaints that we must do something "for the children" or that we must "correct the imbalances by taxing the rich!"

But there isn't enough money held by the rich to correct the imbalances by taxing them.  The rich, for better or worse, simply don't have it.  Nor does cutting defense spending solve the problem.  Nor does eliminating "fraud, waste and abuse" resolve the issue, never mind the obvious question -- since all politicians are always against "fraud, waste and abuse" why is it still taking place and why haven't they stopped it?

The truth is much more sobering than anyone wishes to accept: We made political promises on a global scale that we cannot keep.  We must accept this and each nation and her citizens must have a public and honest discussion and debate about the scope of government limited to that which the people of that government are willing to pay for with current tax revenues.

This means that on balance and on average everyone's standard of living will shrink

It cannot be otherwise as on balance we're all spending money, either directly or by proxy, that we do not have and did not first produce with economic output.

As for previously-contracted debts taken unsecured (which all sovereign borrowing is) either pay it down over time or default it.  Pick one.  This means contracting the size of government to that which is fully funded by tax revenues less a paydown amount

Those who argue they "paid into" some government program are simply wrong.  You did not.  You paid a tax.  I know you think you did something else, but what you think you did and what really happened are two different things.  It doesn't matter what you think happened; what matters is the truth.

The truth is that you paid taxes and they were immediately spent on other things -- things you demanded and voted for.  The argument that these funds were "stolen" is specious -- you demanded the immediate spending and you got what you voted for.  The money was diverted with your explicit consent and by your explicit demand and as a consequence what is to come is your responsibility.

I know you don't want to hear this, but it doesn't matter what you want to hear.  What matters is what is, and this is the truth.

Like it or not.

The necessary adult conversation and acceptance must happen now.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Unicorns Are Mythical Creatures.... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Medicdan
Posts: 8001
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Quote:
Those who argue they "paid into" some government program are simply wrong. You did not. You paid a tax. I know you think you did something else, but what you think you did and what really happened are two different things. It doesn't matter what you think happened; what matters is the truth.

The truth is that you paid taxes and they were immediately spent on other things -- things you demanded and voted for. The argument that these funds were "stolen" is specious -- you demanded the immediate spending and you got what you voted for. The money was diverted with your explicit consent and by your explicit demand and as a consequence what is to come is your responsibility.


There you have it. This should be required reading by all. If someone doesn't want to read the entire ticker, they need to at least read these two paragraphs.

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Dakine2004
Posts: 9228
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Quote:
More than half of the people reading this would not make it through the first two weeks


Over half the readers have no common sense..??....wow...
Tz
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varies
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If i bought a car with debt, but kept cash, couldn't I pay the repo men to go away more than the banksters?

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"I am become debt, destroyer of worlds"
Montysano
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We've got food and cash for about two months, if we're careful. Still, your point is taken. This is an important Ticker.

For example, we spend close to $400.00 per month for cable, internet, and the four cell phones that we've got. Our house payment is less than $600.00 per month, so we're spending 75% of a house payment on luxuries (although I'm told that teenagers must have cell phones. How did I survive without one?). If I had cut that $400.00 in half and banked the rest for the last 5 years, I'd be closer to the "6 months of cash and food" category.

Great stuff, KD.

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"You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today." -- Arthur Jensen, "Network"
Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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Amazing. That's 400 bucks a month that could have gone to something else 15 years ago like savings, vacation, car. Amazing someone would devote that portion of their income to "entertainment". And we wonder why all the TV stars make 20 million a year and ATT can waste 3 billion on a break up fee.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Truthseeker
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Our thinking on this continues to evolve, and planning proceeds apace. We could, realistically, feed ourselves for a couple of years with what we have within easy reach. Cars are full of fuel, and the tractor trailer rig stores an extra 120 gallons of diesel if getting it gets difficult.

It would be a matter of many months before ATM access made a difference for us.

And serious planning with a few neighbors is now well underway to identify the most defensible property, as well as temporary housing for those finding themselves "bugging out" to said retreat.

The long slow grind down has had the added benefit of time to acquire/hone skills, and to think and re-think basic theses.

You can use this time to your benefit. Or you can believe in skittles. It's really one or the other.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Frankschoenburg
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Will the conversation ever take place? Even after credit is extinguished and social programs evaporate, we'll collectively go from "La la la la la" to "It's your fault! No it' your fault!! You did this! No, you did this!!!"
Medicdan
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Quote:
Will the conversation ever take place?


It won't need to take place once it's too late. What will be needed is that your grandchildren pass the message onto their grandchildren. As for the rest of us, it's a self correcting problem.

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Montysano
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Eighty6thebs wrote..
Amazing. That's 400 bucks a month that could have gone to something else 15 years ago like savings, vacation, car. Amazing someone would devote that portion of their income to "entertainment".

Very true, but I doubt that I'm alone in this regard. That's just what cable/landline phone/internet and cell phones cost, and most people buy those services... don't they? Don't you?


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"You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today." -- Arthur Jensen, "Network"
Bluebird
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My grandchildren are very young, 4 & 5. If only their parents would wise up and think of their future rather than thinking of themselves by buying the latest techie gadgets and taking expensive vacations.

So I have some extra food and cash to help them for a few weeks when the SHTF. But then, we will need to pull ourselves together using our collective brains to continue to survive, or not.

Reason: typo
Kochevnik
Posts: 547
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Funny thing - I just did such an inventory before coming here to see what Karl had to say for the day.

In spite of the fact that I am laid off as of Jan 1, and that two years ago we were completely broke (in the hole actually) - today we are fine, better than ever.

But I'm not sure that matters much if 50% of the population doesnt have enough cash to make it two weeks.

In any case, I doubt the banks/businesses are capable of returning to a mostly cash structure. Go ask your bank for all your cash today, I know mine could only produce a fraction of what I have on deposit and if there was any kind of minor panic I would get bupkis as the first ten in line would get their cash and everyone else goes home empty-handed.

If the scenario Karl has outlined happens, not having cash will be the least of your worries. There is no plan for recovering from this. I repeat, there is no plan, the numbers of affected people is too large - we cross this Rubicon and all is lost.

Unfortunately for Europe, this scenario is exactly where they are headed in the next year or two. So we will get to see how it all works out - unless of course it spreads here as well.

And maybe that is Karl's whole point.

I dont know how this plays out - it's been 5 years now and the plates are still up in the air spinning around. I used to think we would just slide slide slide into the abyss, now I'm not so sure any more.

I think if TF-ers really understood what was about to happen, there would be massive interest and planning in prepping and MAGs (mutual assistance groups) - but I see almost none of that.



I guess the big question (2 parter) is -

1) If the Euro collapses do they go to a cash society like Karl has outlined above ?

2) If they do, can we immediately share the same fate ?


And I think Karl's whole point, exemplified by the $400 a month entertainment bill - is that you need to readjust your priorities a lot if you want to have any chance of making it thru this in one piece. That priority adjustment IS coming, you just are going to be in a position to make it voluntary or involuntary. Change or die baby, change or die.


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There are decades where nothing happens - and there are weeks where decades happen.

-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

Bluebird
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@Kochevnik - I see nothing of planning and preparations. Nobody discusses anything of the economy. It's all about buying the latest techie gadgets and going on vacations. They obviously have different priorities than me, and I am unable to open their eyes. I believe they are all living in Cloud Cuckoo Land.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_cucko....
Jslique
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I try to warn those I care about that the GFC is far from over.
I try to preach to them the things I have learnt here. (Reduce debt, save money, stock up on food, invest wisely, etc)

But most of them think I have gone nutty and try to shoot the messenger. It will not happen they say. The .Gov will not let it happen. (go figure)

Thanks again for your work Karl.

Reason: spelling
Montysano
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We're in our first winter of heating with wood, and for both practical and aesthetic reasons, it's been wonderful. Full disclosure: we're in the South, so it's not tough to do. But when TSHTF, we can stay warm and we can cook. My goal this spring is to accumulate enough wood for two winters.

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"You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today." -- Arthur Jensen, "Network"
Eighty6thebs
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I have a month of food and water and enough guns and ammo to defend it and then some. I have cash and silver to buy more if anyone will swap. Past a month, I have no good plan short of going Truthseeker and I’m not ready for that commitment yet.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Sandor
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The latest hottie to spend the weekend at Sandor's resurrected bail pad noticed the loaded pantry, 5 cords of firewood, packed chest freezer, garage and shed, full of tools, the dead goose on the garage floor, 357 mag on the dresser, and my "can do" attitude.

This girl is so far removed from economics and politics but she knows the jig is up. She wants a "long term" relationship - go figure.



Peterm99
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Kochevnik wrote..
If the Euro collapses do they go to a cash society like Karl has outlined above ?
If they do go to a cash society, it probably won't be their own cash. If you were a German or French farmer when TSHTF with the Euro, would you sell your tangible farm products for paper Euros? etc., etc. for other producers.

CHF and/or USD, CAD, etc. are likely to be accepted but I believe transactions in Euros will screech to a halt. Until the individual countries return to some exchange medium in which their people can at least have a semblance of confidence, I'd think commodity barter and foreign currencies will be the order of the day.

ETA: Of course individual gov'ts could promise to eventually exchange Euros for their own currency at some exchange rate, but I, for one, wouldn't trust any gov't promises along those lines - there are probably some people who would, so they might still accept Euros for a time.

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed

Asimov
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I keep telling you....

You can force skittles out of a unicorn's ass for a while... But if you go to far, you get this:

inline

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Mannfm11
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One persons savings is another persons debt. The cash in one persons pocket is another persons debt or government debt. If we were all out of debt, there wouldn't be any money or any savings. This is a lot easier to talk about than it is to solve and it will never be any different as long as the system is structured this way. Whose savings goes up in smoke in default? You could tax the rich, but as long as they have their assets and the system is such that the income of the assets are supported, the rich would still have their income. Who pays it?

The problem is we have set up a system and perpetuated it to the point it can no longer stand. This has been true at least since they set up the Fed and had World War I. The Great Depression was about the first bout of trying to support unsupportable debt for too long. They did exactly what Bernanke and Krugman and others claimed they didn't do.

I read somewhere that Kondretieff was imprisoned and died there by the Communists in Russia. The reason was the cycle was evidence that the government couldn't stop depression. The socialists claim they can. We are seeing they can't, because someone quits delivering the free lunch money. The truth of the matter is the system just runs out of time. 1975 would have probably been a better time to have a depression and to be honest, we almost made it then. We have run out of tricks and someone had better come up with a plan quick.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Dji
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Thanks Asi I just smiley smiley

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What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project
Bagbalm
Posts: 4248
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We can go a couple months. I figure if the teller machines are down and credit cards not being processed likely nobody is going to be worried about mortgage payments. That would extend things. I'm more concerned with the water and power going down. If that happens we have to bug out.
Glennb6
Posts: 468
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ne florida
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now there's a cheerful ticker to get your spirits up... since 2008, and that's 4 long yrs ago, I've expected something along the lines of what KD believes will happen. 4 yrs IS a long time, and thankfully so given what it all means.

I began stocking up on food and cash back then and have kept out of debt. We've lived well below our means and advanced our bugout plans by quite a few years. A couple months ago we pulled up stakes and moved out of the country, primarily as I don't want my kids growing up to be debt and tax slaves for the rest of their lives in the ussa. Hope we made a correct decision.

The two months before leaving we began eating our way through the stored up food which cut our grocery bill way back, yet seemed very strange eating our backup stuff. Didn't quite make it through all the pasta and canned veggies so a few people got really good deals on our going away garage/yard sale.

I though it interesting and unfortunate that our little business which in other times might have sold for a decent amount wasn't even worth the price of a decent used car, and virtually no interested buyers either. I thought people needed a way to earn a living and would have jumped at it, nope.

Being (formerly) in NE Florida and way out of city limits the neighbors all agree that economy is screwed, gov is a huge problem, half wanted to try secession gain, and if anyone had any money they were not spending it even on cheap stuff at a yard sale. We helped a friend of the family with her's also, and she was liquidating absolutely everything due to distress. Most household items large and small were almost new or in excellent condition and people were complaining about fifty cents for a dvd movie. She couldn't sell most of what she wanted to sell. Nobody was spending even on garage sale stuff.


I would think that if the checks started bouncing that the banks would close up rather quick, as would the ATMs. If it ain't in your mattress, you won't get it. And if half the population couldn't make it 2 weeks without starving, a, there will be a lot of friends and family knocking on your door, b, most of the populace will be marching goose-step to whatever gov tells them (be that federal survival camps or a dictatorship, or work farms, or war).

It's nice to be able to read the ticker and others posts, and to occasionally toss my two cents in while there's still a free internet, or an internet.
Luckypenny
Posts: 33
Incept: 2007-11-29
Silver
Michigan
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Karl (or any others),

Hopefully this is a proper thread for this.

Wondered if you could help and comment at all re: the latest post / graph @ Mark Hanson's. He shows all housing Equity @ $6.2T vs Debt $9.9T.

http://mhanson.com/blog

Ø Are 2nd mortgages figured in those numbers ?

Ø How much 2nd mortgage debt is out there?

Ø What has median income done over the shown time period ?

Ø What have tax receipts done over that same time period ?

It seems a reversion to the mean would put collective US housing equity negative, unless debt is pulled down fast(er).

I have tried to put together the income and tax issues questioned, but have yet to find reliable and consistent numbers.

Seems to me this housing equity number is significant, since most Americans net worth has been mostly in their house.

Thank you.



Genesis
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If you believe the Fed Z1, yes on the seconds. The Z1 claims $9.88 trillion as of Q3 2011.

Equity is much harder to determine -- it's a GUESS. This is the old "what's an asset worth?" problem. There's an old saying among accountants that assets are argued over all the time but liabilities are known to the penny, and that's true.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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