Orzag: Is There A Truth-Teller In The House?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-15 18:48
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Orzag: Is There A Truth-Teller In The House?
 

Nice editorial......

At some point in every negotiation over fiscal policy, once the high-minded speeches and other pleasantries have been delivered, the disagreeable details poison the atmosphere. Everyone is in favor of tax and entitlement reform, after all, until they see the specifics.

The reaction to the cost-cutting strategy that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta revealed last week suggests this is about to happen with regard to Pentagon spending.

Let me be very clear: Substantial efficiencies can and should be wrung from the defense budget, and Panetta’s approach has many attractive features. But the strategy he sketched out -- most of the details have yet to be provided -- reveals the underlying tensions that arise whenever significant defense cuts are promised.

Bah.  Like so many before him and in fact like Pete before, he's willing to lay markers that he knows are false -- just like the so-called "Tea Party", just like Democrats, and just like so-called "mainstream" Republicans.

The truth is much uglier: Our government is fully 50% larger than we can afford.

This means we must either double tax revenues (not rates, revenues, cut the size of government in half, or some combination of the two.

Let's take defense.  To have defense pay its "fair share" of these reductions our roughly $750 billion in expenditures would have to be slashed by $350 billion per year, or $3.5 trillion over a decade.  This is nearly four times the amount that people are screaming about now.

To do the same thing with Medicare not only must we stop adding 9% a year to expenditures we must cut the $800 billion that medical expenses are consuming in half, that is, by $400 billion a year, or $4 trillion over ten years -- and we must do it now.

What’s also interesting is that the budget cuts needed in areas outside defense are, if anything, even steeper and thus even less realistic. As Richard Kogan of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has noted, if the cuts are actually made, by the end of this decade, non-defense discretionary spending would wind up at its lowest share of gross domestic product since 1930. I wouldn’t bet on that, either.

All of which suggests that both political parties have locked into inadequate revenue levels for the next decade. As a result, they are forced to count on spending cuts much larger than what, in the end, they are likely to implement -- in some cases, much larger than what they should implement.

Nonsense.

What's clear is that we have been, and are, continuing to write checks we cannot cash.  We've been doing it for a long time too -- it's not new.  In fact, it goes back thirty years or more, and it's not just in Washington DC -- it's everywhere.

Look around you.  The vast majority of Americans, were they to lose their jobs and their credit card access would literally starve and/or freeze to death within two weeks as they have zero savings and once the food in their pantry was exhausted (what little there is) they'd be utterly hosed.  With not one dime in savings they could not put gasoline in their cars or pay the electric bill either.

In the last month of 2011 the Federal Government borrowed $112.4 billion in new funds.  That's $3.63 billion every single day, or about $11 per person in America, per day, every day for a total of $340.61 for each man, woman and child in America in the month of December alone.

This is new debt and does not include the interest on existing debt -- just new obligations.  You sunk that far further into the hole.

This will stop.  It will either stop voluntarily or it will stop as it is ending in Greece.  Those are the choices -- the only choices.

Yeah, Pete is right to bring this up in the context of the Pentagon, but the biggest issues are not with military spending.  They lie in the medical realm where roughly 8% compounded growth over the last 30 years has taken the US Federal on-budget spending on medical care from $53 billion in 1980 to over $800 billion today, with fully half of that borrowed instead of taxed.

Get ready folks -- it's coming.

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User Info Orzag: Is There A Truth-Teller In The House? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Gates
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So... taking all emotion out of the discussion, how much can we increase taxation before we hit avoidance behavior and what does that leave in the "cut" column - percentage wise, assuming we go the "combination" route?
Genesis
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Avoidance behavior is a continuum, not a wall.

What's totally outrageous, however, is cutting payroll taxes when entitlement spending is such a huge part of the problem. It's simply looting one of the last places there's cash flow.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Gates
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Scottsdale
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Agreed but I seem to remember you saying, historically, the max. rate we have been able to successfully tax is at about the 20% - what was that in reference to.
Vitaeus
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No citation here, but 15- 20% seems to be the actual bottom line on how much "government" can reliably extract from the general populace. After this point the "government" is generally removing productive assets and ends up dropping to this level after a season or two.
Genesis
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Correct; about 20% of GDP. With a $15 trillion economy we can thus tax (at most) about $3 trillion. But we have a nearly $4 trillion budget, and we not only have to pull it completely into balance we have to find some means to eventually start paying down what's out.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Vitaeus
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budget, we haven't had a formal budget since 2009 and that one was passed before the current administration was sworn in.
Andysvw
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They should get the axe like all in the private jobs market do get. It is worth it to pay you or its not. If not your gone. The people we paid to fix potholes are putting bumps/humps in our roads. If you did that in the private sector, fired on the first day. Every person that still has a job in the real economy knows this fact.

We should start today by cutting all the billion dollar bonedoggles that never end. My guess is half of every gov budget is more than double the size needed. Some are much more than a little destructive. The SEC for one.

2012 The last stop of the gravy train.

Reason: spelling
Onelegged
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NW Colorado
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"Look around you. The vast majority of Americans, were they to lose their jobs and their credit card access would literally starve and/or freeze to death within two weeks as they have zero savings and once the food in their pantry was exhausted (what little there is) they'd be utterly hosed. With not one dime in savings they could not put gasoline in their cars or pay the electric bill either."

Utterly, utterly true. The only saving grace is access to hunting land and one can cut an ass-load of firewood with 1 gallon of gasoline/premix oil.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Mpilar
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Quote:
The only saving grace is access to hunting land and one can cut an ass-load of firewood with 1 gallon of gasoline/premix oil.

Are we the only people left in the world that use an AXE?? Come on..zero gas/premix, and I have a Stihl chainsaw...just don't use it unless I'm working on a tree that's over 20" in diameter.

How quickly do you think the deer population will disappear in most places after the economic collapse? I give it a few months.

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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Mo
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Were the traitors in DC to suddenly stop all the offshoring (via tariffs and tax penalties), how much would GDP increase in the US? What if half the offshoring were stopped?

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Genesis
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You're still looking for a Unicorn. The offshoring is only possible without being immediately counterbalanced by currency valuation changes BECAUSE of the government overspending.

There is no such thing as a Unicorn, those are not skittles, and it's really getting tiresome to hear people continually try, over and over again, to repetitively argue for that which has already been pointed out is an EFFECT and not a CAUSE for one simple reason -- they will NOT face the fact that the government CANNOT provide what it has promised and thus THEIR skittles MUST STOP.

The time when I shut this place down in disgust is rapidly approaching.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Onelegged
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Whitetailed deer breed like rabbits. Not to worry.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Genesis
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Onelegged: It didn't work that way in the Depression.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Themortgagedude
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I bet that if we cut govt expenditures in half people would be amazed how little pain is experienced. So you gotta work a couple extra years and don't get the replacement parts. Big deal. We got to employ our troops judiciously. Big deal. We gotta get rid of housing subsidies. Don't think I hurt anyone's feelings there. Maybe we could cut all subsidies to illegals. Don't bother me.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Crzymorse
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Ozdouche, I wonder who is paying him now.
Kochevnik
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Some unfortunate facts :

GDP includes G : salaries of public servants, purchase of weapons for the military, and any investment expenditure by a government

and you can add business investment spending for plants that produce things for the .mil / .gov as well.

So you can slash those out of the GDP - I have heard estimates if you took all the govt bull**** out of the GDP this country ACTUALLY only has a GDP of of about half of what the govt claims it has. This strikes me as pretty accurate, considering that ALL of the financialization should not be counted as well. I think Karl has pointed this little factoid out before.

And I know that it took animal populations in the Northeast until the 1990s to recover from the Great Depression slaughter - and that was with 40% of the people we have today and a lot more wild lands than we have now = less animals to begin with, and a lot more hunters when people get hungry.

The Great White Hunter - I'll go out an live off the land when the crash comes - is a total lazyboy fantasy. All the deer will be wiped out the first winter the UE rate hits 25% - forget about TEOCAWKI.

In the 5+ years since the Great Crash started in 2007 (why Karl starteed this forum in the first place) I have seen almost ZERO effort to avoid hitting the wall. I do not see how that will ever change, people can't even change the simplest of habits, how do you expect them to make major changes to how they are willing to live.

Ironically, the very last chance we had to change things was when Obama entered office - if he would have really put his foot down and been willing to sacrifice his chance at a second WH term to save the American people, and he had some serious help - we still would have crashed, but we could have muddled thru - not too mention history would have (eventually) put him at the top of the greatest President's in history.

We all have seen how well that worked out.

Now we corkscrew in hard and fast, like a 747 stripped of it's wings.


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There are decades where nothing happens - and there are weeks where decades happen.

-- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

Bertdilbert
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Hell Karl, we were all having a wonderful Sunday and then you have to smack us on side the head with a dose of reality.

Mo,

Quote:
Were the traitors in DC to suddenly stop all the offshoring (via tariffs and tax penalties), how much would GDP increase in the US? What if half the offshoring were stopped?


There is only so much pie, if tariffs increase prices, there is less money to go around to buy other things. For the average American, the effect would be a hidden tax increase no different than a carbon tax. Would this rise in prices be passed on in SS tax increases or would seniors have to eat the cost of tariffs? If the goal is to cut spending, seniors would have to eat the increase in prices.

Since we would be cutting overall world demand by imposing tariffs, over capacity will increase throwing the world into a deeper recession. This will not bode well for exports and specifically if other countries retaliate. We have enjoyed a lot of free regulation and environmentalism. When you enact laws that make it more profitable to move offshore, the costs of such are not wholly felt by the consumer. To place wage and environmental tariffs as Karl has suggested in the past to place a product in a US competitive price range, most consumers would find the price increases horrific. No matter how you try and slice this pie, the end result is a severe decline in the standard of living. All we accomplished by off shoring was deferring inflation until the pendulum swung back the other way.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Genesis
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The reason to impose the tariffs is to (1) place the TAXES on the people benefiting from the games and (2) make it more profitable to return the production HERE.

But -- this will NOT change the net. At the core the problem is the handing out of skittles. Trade and Tax policy must be fixed, but doing so does NOT make the problem go away.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Cttocsjtemp
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Quote:

Whitetailed deer breed like rabbits. Not to worry.


I think you mean pigs breed like rabbits. Deer take up to 10 months to have babies but pigs take only 4 months with an average of 6 piglets.

In the show "Jericho" after the nuclear devices went off and the people of Jericho were isolated the wildlife is killed off very rapidly to feed the thousand people living in Jericho.

The current wildlife in most states is set that a certain number of people will hunt each season. This number of hunters does not fluctuate to extremes year to year but rather has a slow decrease or slow increase. In Texas the number of hunting licenses sold steadily dropped from 1.5 million sold throughout the 1980s to just under a million in the late 1990s. The number has increased by 2% per year since early 2000s.

If the number of hunters doubled in one year(and continued to rapidly increase) being for the necessity of food to survive the wildlife hunted would become extinct in a rather short time. The animal being shot at being able to "get lucky" by a misguided shot is no longer in the animals favor. The increased number of hunters would have the animal being shot at many more times in a day.

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It's gotten too big to hide behind the sofa pillow anymore. The ugly head is protruding and people are waking up from their sleep only to realize the nightmare is real.
Bertdilbert
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Quote:
The reason to impose the tariffs is to (1) place the TAXES on the people benefiting from the games and (2) make it more profitable to return the production HERE.


Well all taxes are in the end paid for by the consumer, whether that tax comes in the form a tariff or supporting an American wage. The net result would be highly inflationary to the consumer.

This however, was probably something we should have started dealing with in the 1960's when the trade deficit started rearing it's head, rather than the all at once situation we have worked ourselves into.

Have you worked up a suggested inflationary cost of the suggested tariffs? Further, how do we credit the Fed against tariff inflation? We can't impose tariffs increasing prices and then turn around and blame Bernanke for it. Just curious if you have worked up an inflationary impact of said proposals.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mo
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It was a question, not a skittle-seeking solution.

As you should know by now, I'm in favor of cutting spending by half.

But I'm also not sure that decreasing offshoring would be a 'wash' in terms GDP. It's true prices would rise and that would decrease consumption. But it's also true that a larger percentage of the population would have jobs which would generate income tax revenue. There would be fewer welfare sinks even before spending was cut.

The income benefits to Americans of offshoring mostly accrues to the top 10 percent of the population (who also pay most of the taxes). Their incomes would decrease, reducing taxes from that group.

I'm not sure we'd see a wash though.

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Welcome to Pottersville

Genesis
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Uh, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena.

The unicorn seeking is still continuing, I see. Yet another checkbox for why I should shut this place down.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wis/min
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Gen, so many I talk to think we can get out this mess with only moderate pain.

I wish they were right but the math says no way.

I hope you stay around long enough to be able to say ”I told you so”.
Genesis
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Oh I'll do that, even if I turn the entire system read-only.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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