The Employment Situation
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-06 10:01
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
The Employment Situation
 

Here it is.....

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 200,000 in December, and the unemployment rate, at 8.5 percent, continued to trend down, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  reported today. Job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Uh huh.  Let's see what we actually have in here.

Heh the annualized doesn't look so bad eh?  But look at the blue dashed line -- that's not so good.  And we need to dig into that and figure out what's up, because I don't like that trend at all.

Ok, so the actual number of employed people went down.  Hmmmmm.

"Not in labor force" went down slightly as a trend (that is, the slope decreased), but increased numerically.

How about the employment rate -- the most-important number in there, since it controls the taxing capacity of the government.

That's not good -- it's down a touch and has flat-lined now for basically two years.

Here's the problem with this report -- the non-institutional working-age population went from 240.441 million to 240.584, a gain of 143,000 people of working age.  But the number of employed people went down from 141.070 million to 140.681 -- a loss of 389,000.  Adding the two, which is the correct way to look at it, the economy on a population-adjusted basis lost 532,000 jobs.

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User Info The Employment Situation in forum [Market-Ticker]
Truthseeker
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NorCal
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So it continues to appear that you're the only headline creator capable of simple arithmetic. THAT will keep you out of the mainstream, perhaps. But the "I told you so" signs should be plentiful.

Thanks for continuing to skewer the asshats in media.

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Randy123
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Bloomberg said participation rate is back at 1984....Orwell would be proud

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Blutach
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Oak Brook, IL
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Question is will we see (bogus numbers) 7% or 9% before Elections? My guess is TBTB will do everything in their power to get the rate below 8% before November.

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Bill Still 2012!
Mpilar
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I'm sure we'll see a 7.x% rate before the election...but the participation rate will be 57.x% at the same time.

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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
Docj
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So let me see if I understand this correctly in summary. Since JAN 09, we've added about $5T in debt through federal deficit spending and uncounted trillions in "monetary stimulus" such as ZIRP. Yet the total number of employed is essentially flat and the employment rate is down about 2% since Q1 2009.

But we're supposed to believe - via the "headline" numbers - that the employment situation is "improving" and that the economy is "on the mend" and all such tripe.

Yeah, sure it is.

I can only wonder when MiniTRU (BLS branch) is going to start "adjusting" the data such that the "Not in the labor force" and "Employment Rate" numbers aren't so damning.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Jata1
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It's just amazing how the pumpers never face the actual numbers. I wish someone would put these charts in front of that little punk Zandi or one of his ilk and ask him to explain. Always the fluff headline number
Mortgageguymn
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Apparently a lot of 40-50 year olds have opted to retire early. Golf club sales must be skyrocketing.
Trades50
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The Obama administration seems to be pushing for a rate of 8.0% or below by November. That's what it will headline. It's all about skewing the numbers for the public and the election. Looks like the BLS will have no problem meeting Obama's target.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Genesis
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Bureau of Lies and Scams

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Leicestersq
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Apologies for being slightly off topic, but http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16435....

It looks like quite a small fine given the crime of comingling other people's money. If I hadnt ceased being amazed by what goes on, then I would be amazed why JP Morgan could deliberately comingle other people's money like this.
Eighty6thebs
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"Bloomberg said participation rate is back at 1984"

Before the boomers retire.

Before the Boomers retire.

I said it twice to sink in. Short of a huge immigration of new workers, who the hell is going to be paying the bill (aka taxes) when all these boomers leave the work force?

So we have 16 trillion in debt and 100% debt to GDP ratio GOING INTO what is expected to be a tough transition with boomers in social security and Medicare.

A think Hannan said it best speaking about England but the same speech could be repeated in America.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tB....



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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Flyingillini
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You mean to tell me that the bureau of lies and scams engages in lies and scams ? I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that we are now in an election year.
Truthseeker
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NorCal
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US Government wrote..
Bureau of Labor Statistics


Mark Twain wrote..
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Leicestersq
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Just to add, that 'Not in Labour Force' graph, the red line, looks too flat to be true at the end of the period. It doesnt look natural at all. I would suspect something is wrong.
Dashingdwl
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All that matters is getting Obama back in the WH. An unemployment rate below 8.5% will suffice.

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Truthseeker
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NorCal
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Yep. All you need to do is quit counting the folks not working. Does wonders for the "unemployment rate".

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"...But people better realize that the worst-case scenario could actually happen.9/11 happened. This can happen. An economic 9/11, the likes of which we've never seen." Gerald Celente
Pcaldallas
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Logic gets in the way of the meme "recovery summer fall winter spring summer fall winter."

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"The appearance of law must be upheld, especially when it's being broken." - Boss Tweed, Gangs of New York
Jata1
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To enhance the statistics we will no longer count people without jobs as unemployed. We will consider them "resting"
Delapaz
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Dashing: Yep, the usual suspects are already trumpeting it.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/06....
Gable
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Quote:
All that matters is getting Obama back in the WH.


I suspect the unemployment rate will continue to go down right up until election day (regardless of any real data saying otherwise)...the folks producing these numbers are government employees which means they probably vote 95% Democratic and they want a Democratic controlled government to keep the gravy train salaries and pensions...why they think the Republicans would actually cut their salaries is beyond me since they would never really cut government spending either.

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In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or granted its citizens more rights as it grew in size. E.L. 2011

Ellie's Law-As an online discussion about the failures of the Obama Administration continues, the probability someone shouting "It's Bush's Fault" approaches 1
End_the_bubbles
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Oh come on now, lets not get all caught up in the specifics of reality, lets just go with the feel good BS spew instead. After all, recessions are just in our heads. As long as we pretend all is well, then it is, numbers and reality be damned....

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Mortgageguymn
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"Resting."

LH (laughing heartily) or...
SIMCLSHMGIS (sitting in my chair laughing so hard my gut is shaking)
Eighty6thebs
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Serious question. Would President Romney chnage any of this?

I don't think it matters if Obama gets back in. I don't think it has ANY impact.

Drudge had a pole up the other day to pick the republican you liked the most. Like 8 on the list. I read the names and could not select one of them over any other. They all suck.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister

Mortgageguymn
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Who do you want to replace the four liberal women of the Supreme Court if a hair dryer should accidentally fall into their hot tub tryst at Stephanie Breyer's house?
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