| User Info
| Jeeeezus (ADP December, +325k) in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Randy123
Posts: 5789
Incept: 2008-09-24
Earth
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Lots of new baristas?
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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.
New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
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Vitchilo
Posts: 4635
Incept: 2011-04-27
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So now they just don't care, they just lie their butts off?
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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
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Digitlman
Posts: 335
Incept: 2011-03-04
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If these numbers are real, then I am a professionally trained circus juggler.
And guess what?
I'm not.
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Asimov
Posts: 104066
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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8 standard deviations above expectations.
heh.
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Docj
Posts: 1000
Incept: 2009-09-10
Duck & Cover
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ADP == The "Private" branch of the Bureau of Making **** Up.
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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
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Gable
Posts: 413
Incept: 2009-07-04
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I am sorry, but I don't buy the numbers anymore. As we get closer to the election I expect them to better and better regardless of reality. I also expect all data on all economic data to be falsely rosy with hopes of reelecting all the same crooks again.
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In all of history, no government became more honest, less corrupt, or granted its citizens more rights as it grew in size. E.L. 2011
Ellie's Law-As an online discussion about the failures of the Obama Administration continues, the probability someone shouting "It's Bush's Fault" approaches 1
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Nma
Posts: 121
Incept: 2010-03-16
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The ADP numbers are not technically released by the government, correct? Is there a way to just straight up lie about these numbers and be able to cover it up? Can NFP numbers be "more than fudged," i.e. flat-out made up?
I'm not naive; I know these numbers are gamed. I would just hope that with all the real journalists (kudos upon kudos to Karl in particular) out there scrutinizing this information, we would be able to pinpoint a gross fabrication if/when it comes to that.
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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There's no transparency into ADP's numbers.
The BLS numbers tomorrow are at least allegedly transparent. I use the household as that's supposedly a raw survey..... in theory.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Fraudster
Posts: 4176
Incept: 2011-05-10
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All fraud, all the time. I trust nothing.
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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte
"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
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Oldno7
Posts: 2141
Incept: 2008-11-14
RECALL STATE USA
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Ahhhhhhhhhhh election year is upon us. 
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IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.
When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente
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Vitchilo
Posts: 4635
Incept: 2011-04-27
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Quote:Asimov : 8 standard deviations above expectations. Me thinks they are just getting started. We'll see 10-20 sigma at least.
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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
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Ktrosper
Posts: 1500
Incept: 2010-04-06
ft collins co
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Woot! Those made up numbers are looking GREAT today! I'm all in baby!
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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4183
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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"There's no transparency into ADP's numbers".
I have to agree with that statement. I used to think ADP numbers were more accurate because I *thought* they were a straight count of the number of people active on the ADP payroll for a period (select count(*) where status = “active”) so it seemed like a very easy number to get and one that was not open to error. Later I read ADP also applies seasonal and other adjustments to this number and my respect for it went right out the window.
It would be so easy for them to provide just a little background on this number and it would be fantastic. If they would just tell us the raw count of people being paid and any material companies that had either started/stopped using ADP for payroll this number would be golden….but no such luck.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Salt
Posts: 192
Incept: 2010-05-28
NC
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I've noticed that quite a few are buying into the "recovery" and have begun to add to their debt exposure. What we might be seeing is tantamount to the light bulb growing brighter just before the fail.
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Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4183
Incept: 2007-06-26
It's contained to sub-prime!
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This really is the great depression over again. If you go back and look at that 10 year period from 1928 to 1938 or so you had many periods as long as a few years where everyone thought things were fixed and the worst was over.
It's going to take all of these western economies a long time to sort through the debt issues and scale back the social programs enacted over 50+ years to something sustainable. We're about 3 years into a global adjustment period that I think will run for 20. I don't see any reason to own funds or etf's during that time. Maybe a stock picker could do ok, but most will be killed. I think you're better off using your free cash to reduce debt, save, and buy distressed assets when the blood flows in the streets.
The key during this period will be to ignore the noise and understand you’re living through a mammoth global change. Serious…who cares what ADP says on 1/5/12 when all the developed nations have passed 100% debt to GDP ratios. On 1/5/20 some of this will be sorted out…the rest is just noise better ignored.
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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine
"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
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Geschrei
Posts: 473
Incept: 2009-02-23
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Eighty6thebs wrote..It's going to take all of these western economies a long time to sort through the debt issues and scale back the social programs enacted over 50+ years to something sustainable. We're about 3 years into a global adjustment period that I think will run for 20. . .the key during this period will be to ignore the noise and understand you’re living through a mammoth global change. Serious…who cares what ADP says on 1/5/12 when all the developed nations have passed 100% debt to GDP ratios. On 1/5/20 some of this will be sorted out…the rest is just noise better ignored. Very well put, Eighty6. Echoes my very un-expert analysis on the current situation. Interesting times, indeed.
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“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.”
Lord Acton (1834 - 1902)
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