Notice What's Missing?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2012-01-04 07:08
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Notice What's Missing?
 

It's amazing, really, to read an article like this...

Greece and some other euro-area economies face years of financial struggle even if they manage to restructure their debts. Their prospects are so bleak that, according to one school of thought, they would be better off outside the euro system, despite the immediate costs of leaving.

We disagree, and not just because the immediate costs of an exit would be enormous. Even after that penalty was paid, resurrecting national currencies and regaining control of monetary policy would create as many problems as they solved.

....

On balance, debt restructuring plus “internal” or “fiscal” devaluation -- difficult as it may be -- looks preferable. Explicit wage cuts, and the recession needed to induce them, don’t have to carry the whole burden of cost adjustment. A combination of increased value-added tax and lower payroll tax (Greece could easily do both) mimics a currency devaluation by raising the price of imports relative to the price of exports, lowering real wage costs by stealth. They should be part of the mix.

...

Inside the system, the peripheral countries have learned a harsh lesson: They must hold growth in wages to the euro area’s rate of inflation plus any increase in national productivity. In countries such as Greece, this demands a new approach to wage bargaining by employers and unions. Overall, though, it should be no more difficult than managing a floating currency. And on this path the reward for success is greater: lower inflation rates and, with luck, faster economic growth.

Notice what's missing from this article?

No discussion of how Greece wound up with all this debt in the first place.

A national government only winds up in debt when it promises to spend money it does not have and refuses to acquire through taxation.  It therefore chooses to borrow, which implicitly (for anyone but a psychotic entity) is a temporary statement of intent to both spend more now and then either spend less or tax more later.

The underlying problem is that this statement of intent was a lie.  The government never intended to actually spend less and/or tax more later on.  It simply intended to buy votes with a fraudulent promise to pay later on.  It never intended to actually cover the debt.

Yet Bloomberg's editorial desk never points this out, nor do they point out the mathematically-inevitable outcome of these decisions.  Debt may never grow faster than output on a sustainable basis.  Not for you as a person, not for a company, and not for a nation.

The correct solution to such a problem as Greece has is to refuse to pay.  Period.  Default. 

On all of it.

Pay zero.

This, of course, will immediately cut off all non-tax-revenue funds from the government. It will not be able to borrow at any commercially-reasonable rate of interest for quite some time.  Perhaps a very, very long time.

This is good, not bad.

It will force fiscal prudence, not "austerity."

Prudence is quite-simply defined -- a government must have an honest conversation with the people it governs, and come to a decision on the amount of money that the people are willing to pay in taxes.  From these funds the government provides services, and only from those funds.

That's it.

That's how simple it is, and yet this is never, ever mentioned by Bloomberg -- or The Journal for that matter, along with the other members of the "mainstream media", even though it is both the obvious answer and the only one that is mathematically defensible.

Why not?

Because if such a premise gains currency -- gains acceptance among the people -- and they wise up, then the game here, in America, along with the rest of the western world, is immediately over.

Instead of ever-increasing leverage capital formation will come from economic surplus.  Instead of ponzi schemes government will exist on its ability to convince the public to pay taxes, allocating that revenue to services, and its reach will end there -- for good or bad.

The power to commit fraud -- by banks, by governments, by hucksters of all stripes -- will be severely curtailed.  And with the curtain of obfuscation torn down the ponzi schemes of bogus asset valuations, intentional false claims of "solvency" and political promises that cannot possibly be kept as they amount to several times the gross output of the entire nation -- will be forced to end.

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User Info Notice What's Missing? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Azusgm
Posts: 2385
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I wonder how much of their debt is secured. IIRC, some of their infrastructure borrowing may be secured. Quite frankly don't know about how they obtain energy or medical supplies. There are pipelines that run through Greece. A full default and return to the drachma just might get them occupied by blue helmets to "help Greece maintain security and order so that the Greek people need not suffer an unsafe social environment."

All the same, Greece needs to try to get off the Euro and deal with their mess so that they may survive as a sovereign nation. Greece can go back to being Greece, a great tourist destination full of antiquities and sunshine, where the prices are low enough that the middle class can visit and stay several nights. Can't imagine that the Brits would want to stay home when the cost of a holiday in Greece would compare favorably to trying to stay warm during the gloom of winter.
Rln2433
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Karl, fine and good to blame the governments (as if they are monolithic entities) and the bankers willing to lend them money but in reality it is the people who are to blame since they keep voting for the those who will do their dysfunctional bidding.
Checkthisout
Posts: 167
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KD, I think it would be good a good idea if you emailed a copy of each blog post to the original authors who you critique. Doing so would prompt their replies and force some honest debate.

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There are no gun free zones where free men tread.
Tsherry
Posts: 193
Incept: 2008-12-09

Spokane WA
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Quote:
"KD, I think it would be good a good idea if you emailed a copy of each blog post to the original authors who you critique. Doing so would prompt their replies and force ()some honest debate mouth foaming ridicule."

Fixed it for you.
Marvinmartian
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Michael Lewis has another book out, "Boomerang". In it, he details is travels to various countries of the Euro-zone to discover how and why they are in such a fix.

What I find really interesting is the attitude of German bankers towards their careers: they see it as a calling to earn a living, not as a temporary position to get the most loot.

Also, in the book, Meredith Whitney is asked what US state is most like Greece. Without hesitation, her reply is "California". Its truly crazy what my state government is doing to cope with paying for its very liberal agenda.
Reluctantdebtor
Posts: 126
Incept: 2010-03-05

ohio
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Re:
--"...it is the people who are to blame since they keep voting for the those who will do their dysfunctional bidding"--
--------------------------------------------------

In any transaction gone bad, a large portion, perhaps the majority, of the blame rests on the party in possession of superior knowledge. A social environment has been created in which most people can be successfully convinced impossible things can be delivered. No one is blameless, but those who made expensive promises, knowing full well they could not be satisfied, should not be spared responsibility.
Docberg
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I do not blame the voters much. Even at the local levels, most governments are run by the bankers and the real estate firms. Schools are run by the unions and the booster types. It is not uncommon to see the same local elite individuals controlling whatever political parties exist, and also who gets elected. The local papers are generally solidly controlled, as well. Voters are allowed to ratify the decisions of these local elites. Most of their choices have already been made for them behind closed doors.
Genesis
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Sorry, but no. We get the government we vote for and therefore by definition deserve.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mdm
Posts: 332
Incept: 2010-10-13

South Florida
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Quote:
Sorry, but no. We get the government we vote for and therefore by definition deserve.


Exactly. Nobody wants to take at least partial responsibility for what has gone on here. If everyone stood up for what is right, we would have never gotten in this mess.

It makes me sick how most people feel powerless to change this country for the better and yet these same people keep perpetuating the D-R trap. Look at the Iowa Caucuses, Mitt won by 8 votes. If this shows anything, it shows that every single vote matters. No vote is "thrown away".

We must vote Republican no matter who the nominee is to defeat Obama, right? What a load of crap.
Mannfm11
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Karl, we get the government we elect, but we can only elect the candidates paraded in front of us. The real game is what the Feds are doing, which is outside the reach of normal Constitutional bounds. So, we are either operating under the realm of the abnormal and thus outside the Constitution or government is illegitimately outside the Constitution.

Look at who won Iowa last night. Romney is a Wall Street guy. You can't get Kudlow and other criminals to shut up endoring him, but not much else is in favor of him other than some people who think he looks good. This is the punative Republicans that rig the game for the banks in the first place. So we get Obama funded by hundreds of millions from bankers and a organized crime attorney or Mr. Wall Street himself.

The problem is, they don't even hide it now. Watch the EU. Greece keeps getting money because someone needs to be paid and keep the debts on the books. Greece won't default because their political class will lose its gravy train and their banks will go broke. Plus, who the hell would hold their money long enough to do anything other than use it for a pay toilet at the Athens Airport?

Mdm, you really think Mitt won by 8 votes? They can put 8 votes in a roll of toilet paper. I think Paul won, but they can't have Paul become legitimate, because people might actually listen and find out what is really going on. I don't believe 1 out of 5000 people know how the money system works. I paid for a market newsletter, which has a money back guarantee. The guy was talking about what was going to happen when the money started coming out of the bonds, that it was going to rush into something else. He was either bull****ing or he was clueless how the system worked, as no more money can come out than goes in unless they start paying this stuff off. The bond markets run into trouble and you don't want anything but cash, as it will start disappearing fast.

As far as Greece goes, a new slate would probably be the best thing. But, how much MF Global is out there? The message will get out there quickly and Portugal won't pay and Ireland won't pay and Spain won't pay and you can get a roll of toilet paper, in fact a truck load wouldn't be enough to wipe up the crap that would blow.

Look at the fake finance we have here today. They have to have housing going again. You knock off a source of expanding credit, something else has to move up to take its place. Seems it is now student loans and deficit spending. Greece is such an entity or source. New homes in the USA were maybe $200 billion in a normal market, but too much of a good thing is what all disfunctional systems love, so the number was much higher. Now the number is about $80 billion, maybe $250 billion short of the former figure and that 5% of the real economy is AWOL. At best we can expect $200 billion of that $330 billion or so to return, as we have enough McMansions for the next 4 decades. What else we are missing is the equity extraction from refinance and sale that propelled the economy. This is why they are blowing the world up to get housing started again and more bottoms have been called on CNBC than you can count The extremes can't be reached again until the whole thing bottoms and we come back, sometime in the middle of the next generation.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Genesis
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Quote:
Karl, we get the government we elect, but we can only elect the candidates paraded in front of us.

Bull****.

I've yet to see a Presidential ballot with only two names on it.

Last election I saw several other names for Senate on the ballot too.

The choice of the people to be stupid is not someone else's problem and demonstrates nothing other than stupidity.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mdm
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South Florida
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Quote:
Mdm, you really think Mitt won by 8 votes? They can put 8 votes in a roll of toilet paper. I think Paul won, but they can't have Paul become legitimate


With an 8 vote margin it is possible that there was a miscount or some stuffed votes to make Romney win over Santorum. But to lose by 4,000 votes, Paul did not win. Paul had volunteers witnessing the counts at all of the precincts. There is no way you have 4,000 stuffed votes with witnesses present. Sad to say, but the newsletter BS probably cost him Iowa.
Checkthisout
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Mdm,

Paul still probably got 7 electoral votes, same as Romney or Santo. Those are the only real votes that matter in the end anyway.

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There are no gun free zones where free men tread.
End_the_bubbles
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Quote:
Because if such a premise gains currency -- gains acceptance among the people -- and they wise up, then the game here, in America, along with the rest of the western world, is immediately over.

Instead of ever-increasing leverage capital formation will come from economic surplus. Instead of ponzi schemes government will exist on its ability to convince the public to pay taxes, allocating that revenue to services, and its reach will end there -- for good or bad.


Indeed! I believe this outcome is inevitable, although the road there is a long and painful one....

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Bjonsson
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California
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If Ron Paul didn't make the ticket, I was going to write him in. But, Gen is right, there are other names on the ballot and I'll instead vote for the actual Libertarian candidate.

I used to think that a vote for a third party was a waste of a vote. Now, I think just the opposite, I'd be wasting my vote if I DIDN'T vote Libertarian.
Antone
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Seditionia, USSA
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Quote:
Bull****.

I've yet to see a Presidential ballot with only two names on it.

Last election I saw several other names for Senate on the ballot too.

The choice of the people to be stupid is not someone else's problem and demonstrates nothing other than stupidity.


While this is true (and only goes to prove our nation's collective stupidity) I've yet to see in my lifetime, my father's lifetime, or my grandfather's lifetime, a third-party candidate who took more than 20% of the [popular] presidential vote.

IMO, we're toast and Obama gets 4 more. ****.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Genesis
Posts: 130663
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Again: That we get the government we deserve does not indict the government.

It indicts us.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mikek31
Posts: 4341
Incept: 2009-05-04
Green
Chicago
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Heh, spoke with my old man (actually, my step-dad) a few days ago. Told me I had a "bad attitude" because I believe colleges are institutional frauds and ponzi schemes, not to mention the fact that I don't believe he'll ever see most of his pension and social security money (it'll be either devalued or wiped out). This, coming from a highly-respected, stand-up guy who taught me everything I know about carpentry and was the closest thing to a father I ever had... and also lost his business and his home to the government and banksters.

I basically wanted to tell him that he'll end up in the streets with the Commies, similar to what's occurring in Greece. But I couldn't go that far; not that he's even aware of what's happening there, let alone here.

My point is, we're ****ed. The only way out of this mess is simply logical, rational truth: the only damn thing folks are lacking these days. They get their "knowledge" from the mainstream media, movies, entertainment, and similar garbage which only confuses more than it "enlightens."

I've been here for almost three years. My conclusion? It's worse than even I thought, and we're in for a helluva hard time.

Karl's got a point with his statement above. My interpretation is it's going to take A WHOLE LOT MORE SKULL****ING before people realize they're just being duped and manipulated.

Face the facts folks, you're nothing more than a simple tax ID or loan # to these bastards. Unfortunately, most people will only realize that until it's too late to do a damn thing about it. It's gonna get ugly out there.

BTW, I haven't had internet access for a few weeks; just wanted to wish everybody, especially Karl, a happy new year. Here's to better times ahead and hoping we come out of this as better human beings in the process...

smiley

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Bozonian
Posts: 19871
Incept: 2007-09-01
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Saratoga Springs, New York
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Karl, I don't think they'll have any problem borrowing after they default. That's the real sad part.

They'll be the one country in the world that is a good credit risk just for the lack of sovereign debt. They can pledge some assets of some kind and I'm sure they could get billions in funding.

But if they were smart, they wouldn't borrow at all.

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
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