Overstated Home Sales Data (Pay Attention To The Timeline!)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-12-13 18:34
by Karl Denninger
in Housing
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Overstated Home Sales Data (Pay Attention To The Timeline!)
 

Oh what do we have here....

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

Oh I see.  Remember, this first came up in February and I wrote about it at the time.  Let's ask a simple question: How do you miscount an actual sale?  A sale is a sale is a sale, right?  NAR gets its data from the various MLS systems and of course we the general public should trust the professionals and their data, yes?

In point of fact I was called all sorts of names by some of those professionals when I ran down a report sent to me in the fall of 2010 claiming that the MLS data was incorrect on sold price -- a key element used when performing market analysis for clients who are interested in both buying and selling. At the time I made the audacious recommendation that nobody should trust Realtor data and should instead insist on a pull of the public records at the County level before performing any real estate transaction.

There was plenty of controversy at the time over the original claim and I spent a lot of time running down the facts, including calls to county tax authorities -- and later posted a follow-up later to the original Ticker.

This issue of bad counts of sold homes is, in my opinion, much-more serious, as it's damn hard to claim this is a result of misunderstanding between an industry professional and a naive client.

Let's face reality here folks: Counting how many things sold is pretty simple if there's any sort of verification and integrity in the process, especially when ownership changes are filed with county authorities in public records and thus a spot check should catch any material error almost instantly!

So I must ask -- why now, some eight months after Corelogic first raised the issue?  Did it really take eight months to actually.... well..... count?  How many fingers do these people have again?

And again I have to ask - why is it that it always seems these errors in important economic statistics are in the same direction?

Cue rabid defenses from the industry (despite the fact that it might have led people to overpay, perhaps materially so) in 5......4......

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User Info Overstated Home Sales Data (Pay Attention To The Timeline!) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
Green
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Quote:
The benchmark revisions will be published next Wednesday and will not affect house prices.
smiley
Sunriser1
Posts: 3115
Incept: 2007-10-30
Green A True American Patriot!
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1) Some people count sales at the contract point before they close.
2) Sale price is a pack of lies. They are crediting back to buyers large amounts of money. I would say 10-25 %.

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People call me depressing, I tell them I'm just well informed.
Genesis
Posts: 130688
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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Pending and actual sales are not the same thing.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Landman
Posts: 58
Incept: 2011-05-26
Green
D/FW
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This is absolutely disgusting!

....but I'm not really shocked. Scumbags!
Medicdan
Posts: 8013
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Green
Scottsdale, AZ
Online
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Well well. Where are the people that bashed you then?

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Arizona & desert gardening
http://azediblegarden.com/
Genesis
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Oh go look at the old thread.... smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Sunriser1
Posts: 3115
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Green A True American Patriot!
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Try and explain that to people who want to believe their home is still above water.
After four years people still don't get it.

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People call me depressing, I tell them I'm just well informed.
Capeman
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Gold
San Diego
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 by capeman

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"I believe all God's creatures have a soul... except bears, bears are Godless killing machines!"
- Steven Colbert
Trades50
Posts: 4214
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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When has NAR had a reputation of being honest? Remember NAR when the housing market was collapsing?

Quote:
NAR - the Ultimate Wolf in Sheeps Clothing


http://www.realtorsucks.com/

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Tsherry
Posts: 193
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Spokane WA
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It's all a lie. Every damned bit of it, everywhere you look.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1226
Incept: 2011-04-14

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What really bugs me, almost to the point of keeping me up at night, is that I don't think we've seen anything yet when it comes to the lies and theft that is permiating our system.

I think this clip is appropriate given how those who get caught red-handed act when confronted...



Flap

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Marsgate
Posts: 107
Incept: 2008-02-20

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Thanks for the sleuthing. Did you catch where Kyle Bass said 6 years and a few months + inventory? This crap isn't over by a long shot..
Andyc
Posts: 333
Incept: 2010-10-24


Banned
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"instead insist on a pull of the public records at the County level before performing any real estate transaction."


What records, weren't the records sucked into the MERS toilet?


Another scam that's being overlooked is that they cheated the state and counties out of fees on mortgages using this MERS scam and I seem to recall reading they charged the fees to the home buyers as if they were still paying said fees at the county courthouses.

Its all one big carnival now.
Vegasradar
Posts: 8653
Incept: 2007-07-11
Silver A True American Patriot!
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put an offer on an organic sale house this weekend 1/3 less than asking— I had recent comps to back up my offer— they pulled the house off the market the next day.

I have been throwing the lies in the face of the local realtors for a while— they always have some excuse— and tell me they will "look into why it sold for $40 a sqft— must have been a BULK purchase by an investor..." "I don't know why it sold for so low, it looks fishy, I'll get back to you..."—BS

Also, I see where when the bank takes the house back in foreclosure, it is booked as a sale, propping up median price as well as looking like more sales are taking place.

in the mean time, there are SO MANY HOUSES on the market and every one is listed in the same 300k-400K price range when they SHOULD be 150K-250K
I expect it won't take long as the flood of homes and foreclosures come on this spring with NO BUYERS

Quote:
Sale price is a pack of lies. They are crediting back to buyers large amounts of money. I would say 10-25 %.


idiots! They pay more in property tax if they do that— DUH!

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Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi
Ozonehole
Posts: 104
Incept: 2009-04-04

Taiwan
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Karl said: Pending and actual sales are not the same thing.

Here's what I suggest we'll see next from real estate industry: every time they show a house to a potential buyer, that will be a new "sale," pending of course the customer actually deciding to buy. This should increase sales figures by at least a factor of 10, probably more.

The juggling of statistics to create a warm, fuzzy feeling about the "booming economy" is getting rather tiresome. We have an unemployment rate that is going down, because we stop counting people who are assumed to have given up looking for work. Actually, they might not have given up, but if they're not registered with the state-run employment services (required to collect unemployment insurance), then it's assumed that they've given up looking and thus are no longer unemployed.

We've had juggled inflation statistics for years. One trick was to hide price increases by saying that the new products give more value than the old models - so a faster computer that costs more than last year's model is actually cheaper because it's, well, faster. New cars are cheaper than last year's models because now they include a sticker from the EPA saying "green vehicle" (even if the gas mileage has declined). And so on.

Let us not forget that some time in the latter years of the Bush administration, it was decided to stop publishing a figure for M3. I guess it's on a need-to-know basis now, and the public doesn't need to know.

This is the new economic paradigm: "hide the turd." Might be reassuring to those folks who still have a house and food in the fridge, but much less reassuring to those already living in a cardboard box beneath the freeway overpass.

Krzelune
Posts: 5513
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It's the perfect time to buy! Just kidding. Who listens to these clowns anymore?

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The desire of millions, the inconvenience of millions, the suffering of millions, the death of millions, does not concern them because of the evolutionary humanist lens they peer through.
Burke13
Posts: 32
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Gold
Texas
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Lies everywhere I look. We need to eradicate these people from society for good as part of the cleaning process.
Green222
Posts: 269
Incept: 2008-02-15
Green
Bunker
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Rehypothecation.
Ugrev
Posts: 143
Incept: 2010-03-08

The police state of NY
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The whole damn infrastructure needs to burn. The tax code, the fed, the banking system, the markets. Slash and burn and start over. So.Sick.Of.This.Crap!
Crzymorse
Posts: 1187
Incept: 2010-06-25

Maryland
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Rumor has it Freddie Mac paid Gingrich 1.5M for a series of blowjobs; sounds more plausible than the historian shtick.

I learned a new word today rehypothecation. Nice gig , to pledge other people's assets as collateral just because they opened an account with you. Why I do something difficult like manufacture and create new products I'll never know.

Remember folks every market is different when it comes to real estate just listen to the experts.
Ocdan
Posts: 42
Incept: 2011-10-12

Orange County, Ca
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"It's all a lie. Every damned bit of it, everywhere you look."

This!

+1 bazillion!!!!

Sad, but the country IS now running on lies, deceit, thievery, garbage, cheap crap from overseas, snake oil, get rich quick, etc.

I am sick of it. I work in a library, so I see the waste that the publishing industry puts out. Heck, half these books don't even appear to have been edited by someone and I am not talking about a misplaced comma in a 300-apge work.

For the longest time, I have advocated a moratorium on publishing books, for say a year. Give everyone a rest from new books and a time to catch up.

But NOOOOOOOOO! Think of the tragedy that (Bartles and) Jane 6pack might have to suffer w/o Danielle Steele's 547th novel. Crap, on top of that, do we need to kill more trees for the paper, as well as, waste than bandwidth on another Kindle for Stpehen King's 6,567 page paperweight-tome!

Sorry, but I see the dreck that passes for publishing and unfortunately, KD, you're work is most def. in the minority (Good stuff) that is. 90% of everything in this country is like diapers...FREAKIN' DISPOSABLE.

Art, literature, music. Gosh, I know I sound older than the 44.5 that I am, but I am tired of all of it. Corrupt consumption is no way to live and even though the family has scaled way down, living in it still doesn't help.

I also would like to add from the first principles entry that I agree that I am a slave to Christ, but that doesn't mean the goobermint owns me.

However, we are where we are in this country, esp. when we see people not taking responsibility for their actions because of this dependence on the gov't. When Uncle Sugar bails your butt out with welfare checks or TARP, what do we here at TF expect?

Something like, "Uh, em, uh, I don't know where the $1.2 billion went." Heck, you don't!! I might believe you could lose a dollar and twenty cents, but more than a billion. PUHLEASE!!! That might work with the X-Factor idiots, but I am not fooled. Must be nice to get away with that sheit.

Anyway, where was I? Yeah, we have all this nonsense because everyone wants a bailout, whether it is through welfare checks for teenage moms with 5 kids or the bankster who screwed up with derivatives.

So there you go. If you want socialism, welcome to gov'y slavery. Remember, the gov't gives, but it will take, mark my words! It will not give anything away for free, because it doesn't have anything to begin with.

I am so sick of it. Time to go back to simple things again. 40 acres and a mule.

Sorry for the rant, but I had to get that off my chest!
Videopro
Posts: 1891
Incept: 2007-08-03
Green
L.A. Area
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When there's little valid capital creation in the economy, as has been the case for years now, you HAVE to assume in nearly every manner of endevor the void is being filled with fraud.

Until proven otherwise.

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"The Spinning Cyclone Of Deflation Is Fueled By Deficit Spending. An efficient asset destroying storm powered by the printing press". - Me

When the Nazi's broke every law when coming to power, people in later years were asked, how were they allowed to do it? The answer was easy: They Simply Did It.

Bertdilbert
Posts: 2655
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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Heh, if we downgrade prior sales data now going into the slow season, the YOY comparisons will not look as ****ty! Brilliant move! Just don't look at peak to trough...

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
Pa.
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Remember the quote from Galbraith in 'The Great Crash':

Quote:
To the economist embezzlement is the most interesting of crimes. Alone among the various forms of larceny it has a time parameter. Weeks, months or years may elapse between the commission of the crime and its discovery. (This is a period, incidentally, when the embezzler has his gain and the man who has been embezzled, oddly enough, feels no loss. There is a net increase in psychic wealth.) At any given time there exists an inventory of undiscovered embezzlement in – or more precisely not in – the country’s business and banks. This inventory – it should perhaps be called the bezzle – amounts at any moment to many millions of dollars. It also varies in size with the business cycle. In good times people are relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though money is plentiful, there are always many people who need more. Under these circumstances the rate of embezzlement grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle increases rapidly. In depression all this is reversed. Money is watched with a narrow, suspicious eye. The man who handles it is assumed to be dishonest until he proves himself otherwise. Audits are penetrating and meticulous. Commercial morality is enormously improved. The bezzle shrinks.”


The fact that there is still so much fraud means we're still in the bubble.

It's the biggest bubble of them all, as yet unnamed, all conducted by the government and its supporting institutions. I think it should be called the Obama Bubble.

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