Let's Make The Clawback Risk REAL
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-12-06 10:47
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Let's Make The Clawback Risk REAL
 

One of the forum members pointed out something that was obvious to me when I wrote this morning's Ticker, but might have gone over your head.

I want to make absolutely sure it doesn't go over your head because if you're wrong about this you could lose everything in your bank and investment accounts -- every single dime.

FDIC / SIPC insured or not.

Recently Bank of America transferred a bunch of derivatives into their banking arm.  "A bunch" means somewhere around $80 trillion worth.

Now pay very careful attention, because part of the bankruptcy "reform" law in 2005 placed derivative claims in front of depositors in a business failure - including a bank failure.

What JP Morgan is claiming in the MF Global case is that the derivative trade (which is exactly what a "Repo to Maturity" trade is - it's a derivative) is entitled to preference in the case of MF Global over those who had cash there for safekeeping either as a margin deposit or just as free cash as you would hold free cash in a bank.

If a major bank blows up this very same claim, supported in existing Bankruptcy Law with the changes signed by George Bush in 2005, will be used to steal the entirety of your bank account, and if you detect the impending blowup shortly before it happens -- say, 90 days before -- you're still exposed to the risk through clawback!

I have often referenced how that "reform" law in 2005 was used to screw you blind as a consumer, all under the name of the "ownership society" and "responsibility."  The truth is that this "reform" law was a raw example of financial******that was intended to and did assault you, the common consumer in America, for the explicit purpose of benefiting large financial institutions.

Don't run any crap about FDIC insurance in this sort of event either -- in the singular case of Bank of America we're talking about $77 trillion in face value of derivatives.  While "notional" values are wildly beyond what anyone would have to pay (as that figure assumes the reference all goes to a literal value of zero) the fact remains that with even a 5% loss the amount of money required would be roughly equal to the entire US Federal Budget, which the FDIC clearly does not have -- nor could it acquire. 

A cascade failure of several large banks would easily result in loss claims that would exceed the entire US GDP; for obvious reasons virtually none of that would actually be paid or recovered and in the case of you, the average person, your reasonable expectation of recovery in such an event is zero.

There is a fairly cogent argument to be made that what BofA did is tantamount to intentionally placing an armed financial nuclear device in the center of the board room table and then daring anyone -- including the government -- to come tamper with it and risk setting it off, knowing full well that if it explodes it is utterly impossible to contain the damage to our economy and financial system.

Oh, and just in case you missed it, this risk is not limited to Bank of America.  Go look at any of the large banks and their derivative book of business' notional value and then tell me that it makes a bit of difference which institution we're talking about at any instant in time.

If this risk has not sunk into your brain by now despite my incessant table-pounding you need to go for a psychiatric examination stat.  This is not to say that you're about to have the entirety of your savings accounts, CDs and similar disappear, because nobody knows exactly how much risk lies where with what in the US banking system (say much less the European one) and thus the odds of such an event cannot be qualified in any meaningful way.

But as we have seen since 2007 executives will lie with impunity about their exposure and level of risk in this regard and despite Sarbox, which allegedly makes such lies (when reduced to writing in a quarterly or annual report) a crime nobody has been prosecuted for doing so and it is quite clear to me that the US Department of Justice is intentionally running the clock on the statute of limitations so those who did and do so get away with it.

The bottom line is this: The risk is very real as customers of MF Global have now discovered "the hard way" and if you're sticking your head in the sand at this point you have no right of complaint when and if it happens to you.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Let's Make The Clawback Risk REAL in forum [Market-Ticker]
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8850
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
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They need to take all the MFG executives out and inform them that if one penny is lost of customers segregated money that they will all be tried on a variety of charges. If the money is found and returned to the customers accounts all will be forgotten. Prison time or poverty? Time for Corzine to choose. And if they don't do this I'm afraid someone will hang him from a lamp post.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Stemmit
Posts: 4071
Incept: 2007-09-07
Green
NYS
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One simple way to diversify CASH holdings away from large banks is treasury direct.

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The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will execute great v
Onelegged
Posts: 267
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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Under the mattress. Its safer than anywhere else it seems. Same return too.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Leicestersq
Posts: 221
Incept: 2009-10-12

UK
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If what I read in the post is true, this is truly incredible. This law makes it possible for people to take your bank savings legally. All they have to do is take a failed derivative, and put it in front of your savings in the case of insolvency, and voila, your money is gone. (In the US at least).

This makes saving in almost any bank completely impossible, as people can take your money for free. There is every incentive to gamble with derivatives, knowing that the counterparty has deposits for little old lady's to fall back on should things go wrong.

Is there the mother of all bank runs underway as people wise up to this issue?

Jdseese
Posts: 112
Incept: 2009-02-22

Cleveland OH
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So if there is a bank run, which causes the bank to fail, who cares.
They'll just take back whatever money you withdrew.

This is bank run insurance?
Natew
Posts: 66
Incept: 2009-12-16

IN
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So I've got my meager (~20k) life savings spread through 3 different banks 2 regional and ING. Might goto the teachers credit union and open an account. Other options? I would like to not have to store it in my mattress...
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 1041
Incept: 2009-04-16
Gold
California Desert
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No, it is not insurance for bank runs....it is assurance that bankers will find themselves on the business end of a gun barrel.
Ktrosper
Posts: 1500
Incept: 2010-04-06
Silver
ft collins co
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Tell ya what, if I'm a customer losing my life savings to these thieves, I'm doing some work to "personally clawback" what I can from everyone involved...

It's where my mind instantly goes, I'm done considering "legal remedies" in this lawless environment. I'm in eye-for-an-eye mode.

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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D

Jduwaldt
Posts: 499
Incept: 2010-06-10

Orange County, CA
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Quote:
Go look at any of the large banks and their derivative book of business' notional value...


I guess it's time to learn how to read a balance sheet. BUT if Sarbox is neutered then why would a financial institution place their "derivative book" information where someone like myself can see it?


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It's not an issue of "cooperation" vs "go it alone": it's a question of involuntary vs voluntary relationships.
Musicandnature
Posts: 1953
Incept: 2007-12-05
Gold
NJ
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'If this risk has not sunk into your brain by now despite my incessant table-pounding you need to go for a psychiatric examination stat.'

What if it has sunk in and led one into the realms of insane ?

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Since it costs a lot to win, and even more to lose, You and me bound to spend some time wonder'n what to choose. Goes to show, you don't ever know, watch each card you play and play it slow...Wait until that deal come round, don't you let that deal go down, no no. Garcia/Hunter.
Johnny
Posts: 1586
Incept: 2008-10-01
Silver
Kentucky
Online
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What can you do with whatever you have? Is there any where "safe" ? Even if you held it in actual cash, how long will that cash be good when banks are exploding? How do you actually "hold" any REAL amount of cash? You're really going to put $100K under your mattress? $1 million? Really?

Don't give me that bull**** about canned goods or ammo. I have all that! It's still something you have to protect. Where do yo put $100K of tuna or .223? $1 million?

EVERYTHING can be confiscated.

How do you protect what you have?
Genesis
Posts: 130744
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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There is only one way: You get organized with your neighbors and the rest of the nation and you stop the stupid **** that is going on today.

That is the only option that has a reasonable chance of success.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 1041
Incept: 2009-04-16
Gold
California Desert
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Yeah, I guess its insane to not want your money stolen.
Stupefied
Posts: 3
Incept: 2010-04-07
Gold
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Gen does the clawbacks affect principal and interest or just interest?
Cmalbatros
Posts: 202
Incept: 2008-05-07
Green
Woodstock, GA
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Could this be a treasonous act if not by banksters then definitely by the Politburo? if so, then -

USC 18 Section 2381 - Treason Defined
Lawlinks ^


CITE 18 USC Sec. 2381
EXPCITE TITLE 18 - CRIMES AND CRIMINAL PROCEDURE
PART I - CRIMES
CHAPTER 115 - TREASON, SEDITION, AND SUBVERSIVE ACTIVITIES
TEXT Sec. 2381. Treason
Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war
against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and
comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason
and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five
years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and
shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.
SOURCE (June 25, 1948, ch. 645, 62 Stat. 807; Sept. 13, 1994, Pub. L.
03-322, title XXXIII, Sec. 330016(2)(J), 108 Stat. 2148.)
A capital crime.

& NO LIMIT ON STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS.

One can only hope.

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The only regulation that works - is failure.
Remember, the value/price of stocks and shares fall as well as plummet.
Genesis
Posts: 130744
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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All of it.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2661
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Gold
CA
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I see no reason why a credit union would be any safer since they are depositing your money somewhere, and FDIC would be insolvent anyway.

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Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Uppity_peasant
Posts: 3112
Incept: 2009-06-26

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The Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) (Pub.L. 109-8, 119 Stat. 23, enacted April 20, 2005)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_....

The Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005: A New Landscape
By Roxane DeLaurell and Robert Rouse
NOVEMBER 2006

http://www.nysscpa.org/cpajournal/2006/1....

U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 109th Congress - 1st Session {Question: On Passage of the Bill {(S. 256 As Amended}}

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/ro....

FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 108 (S 256 YEA-AND-NAY 14-Apr-2005 3:39 PM)
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2005/roll108.....

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====
If it's true that "assault weapons" are "weapons of war" and don't belong on the streets of America, why do the police need them? Who are the police at war with?

Reason: add vote links
Jal
Posts: 512
Incept: 2009-03-25

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BIG Banks don't need your deposits to make loans.

Put your money in the mattress and the bank will just find another accounting tool to stay in business.

Regulators are the ones saying that the banks should not leverage more than X.

Ya. They sure followed that advise.

jal
Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
Green A True American Patriot!
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Azusgm
Posts: 2406
Incept: 2010-12-02
Green
East Texas
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Google "occ quarterly derivatives report" if you want to see a (somewhat delayed) summary of the derivatives holdings.
Assassin
Posts: 133
Incept: 2009-05-21

Illinois
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"ticker" wrote..
and if you detect the impending blowup shortly before it happens -- say, 90 days before -- you're still exposed to the risk through clawback!


eh, i'm not sure how this follows from the previous posting. the assertion the banks seem to be making with MF Global is that if the bankruptcy trustee distributes money to an MF customer, and a judge later finds that a creditor rather than a customer is entitled to said money, the customer should agree to have it clawed back.

that's a bit different than a scenario where somebody has money on deposit at a bank, they smell smoke, withdraw their money without any bankruptcy trustee awarding it to them, and then the banks' derivative counterparties come whining that their bets can't be paid. in this scenario, the counterparty is SOL; it's first-come first-serve, so if a depositor withdraws his/her money before the derivative bets can be settled, that's really too bad for the gamblers. now, the first-come first-serve concept cuts both ways: if the counterparty comes knocking early enough before the depositors, that's a problem for the latter.

but i'm not seeing how the current situation with MF Global translates into clawbacks for a bank depositor who wisely yanks their money before bankruptcy, because this situation by definition involves MFG customers who didn't yank their money in time. if they had, they wouldn't even be meeting with the trustee.
Stanowen
Posts: 160
Incept: 2008-10-02

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If the FDIC didn't guarantee or backstop depositors money, wouldn't that action be incredibly deflationary?

I always thought that in the event of a gigantic bank failure, the FDIC would almost assuredly HAVE to make depositors whole again or risk tremendous deflation (among insurrection).
Greenrebellion
Posts: 475
Incept: 2009-01-03
Green
Los Angeles
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Gen, I appreciate you bringing this to everyone's attention, but let's all make sure we focus on the right things here.

I wouldn't worry about whether your money is safe in one of the big banks (though I'd pull it out for other reasons since they are all crooks). Because quite frankly, if this country experiences mass deposit losses...the least of your worries will be how much you have in savings.

That's why, as Gen rightly points out, we need to figure out a way to inspire true political change, and we need to do it now.
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