On The Actual Problem
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-11-16 11:01
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
On The Actual Problem
 

Let's cut it all down to a short, easily-digested set of facts.

  • With a few notable exceptions everyone believes that government at some level is good, not bad. (your host is in this group.)

  • All governments inherently exist only due to the consent of the governed, as all governments require the active cooperation of the individuals living under that government to perform useful output of some form that they can then tap and distribute.

  • Some governments have resorted to slavery (effective or actual) to maintain power but this is a losing proposition over willing cooperation, as a slave doesn't produce to anywhere near his or her full potential.  Slavery by trickery is far more common than slavery by force for this very reason.

There is only one debate to have in this regard: What services do you wish to demand of your government at all levels -- federal, state and local?

Now temper that with the following: Every service you demand must be paid for in current taxes.

Violation of that second precept is why we're in this mess.  It is why the unholy game between Wall Street and Washington exists.  This violation is exploited by both major political parties (e.g. ads showing Bush "pushing Granny down the stairs") to play you off the guy or gal next door through intentional lies in this regard.

This scam is now coming to a close not due to the ethics of the people in DC and on Wall Street but simply because mathematical limits have been reached.  We're seeing the dislocation first in Europe and that should not surprise either -- they too made promises they couldn't pay for with tax revenues, and in general made more expensive promises than we did.

But this is small consolation because of how exponents work.  If you're only half as bad as the other guy and he blows up you might think you avoided the blast, but in fact all that happened was that you have one more doubling time before you find yourself in the exact same soup he's in.

Let's look at another example: The CPI report out this morning claims that health care expenses are up a bit more than 3% annualized over year-ago costs.  That's a lie: I just got my insurance renewal and it rose by almost-exactly 10% and that increase in cost has been nearly constant on an annualized basis for 20 years going back to when I was the guy negotiating our group plan for MCSNet!

The willful and intentional misconduct from various agencies in our government in the form of false reporting and willful and intentional aversion of eyes from outright scams and frauds, however, does not and cannot change mathematical outcomes.  Arithmetic does not care about political promises.

WE MUST decide as a people, via the political process, exactly what services we want our government to provide.  WE MUST give our government the charge to provide those services only for that which we are willing to pay for with current taxes, without exception.

That's the beginning and end of it folks.

There is no other answer.  There is no other alternative.  This isn't about wanting something different, it's about facts.  The schemes and scams in DC and through the financial system are at their core attempts to avoid the outcome of basic arithmetic.  Medicare, for example, cannot be fixed under our current medical system where costs are escalating at 10% a year and have been for two decades.  Nothing you can do will fix Medicare until the underlying cost escalations stop; wages have not gone up at all over the last decade!

Note that if salaries go up 3% a year (which was a reasonable expectation until the last decade) then they double every 25 years (approximately.)  At 10% a year in cost escalation prices double every 7 years (approximately.) 

In 25 years, when salaries double once, costs double between three and four times, or 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 (approximately; actual value of about 10x) the original cost while wages have only multiplied by 2!

It doesn't matter how high taxes are set -- there is no tax system you can design that will allow this outcome to occur.

The wonks and "high level" people in DC know this.  Bernanke knows this.  The bankers know this.  In fact the bankers have their own formula for estimating doubling time called "The Rule of 72" that dates back to before we had pocket calculators and math had to be worked on an abacus, slide rule or pencil and paper.

You had better come to grips with these FACTS and demand that the lies stop, because if we don't and continue to allow votes to be bought with fraudulent promises that cannot be kept then it is inevitable that our nation's economy and government will collapse.

That's not an opinion, it's a mathematical certainty.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info On The Actual Problem in forum [Market-Ticker]
Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
Incept: 2009-08-05

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"The CPI report out this morning claims that health care expenses are up a bit more than 3% annualized over year-ago costs. That's a lie"

Nah, they just used substitution, as usual. Just as they "adjust" the CPI by calculating that you'll switch to chicken if you can no longer afford steak, they calculate that you'll simply choose illness or death over higher medical costs. (MILD sarcasm off)
Redneckgreener
Posts: 42
Incept: 2011-11-03

Utah
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Roads and bridges, firefighting, some educational costs, animal services, communications, airports, trains, pollution controls, and reasonable medical (ER rooms) - the rest is all stuff citizens can address on their own if banded together. Fewer laws making it so the average Joe can do things. When I was a kid, we took our own trash to the dump, where we could find stuff other people left and sometimes take it home for our own use. We weren't poor trash pickers, my dad was an engineer, everyone did it. That was a very effective way of recycling. Now even recycling is big biz and tied up so you can't do anything on your own. Our society is totally over-controlled and we have too many laws. Get the effing dot-gov out of everything except things that people can't do on their own.
Etz
Posts: 13890
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
A corrupt government at any level is bad.

----------
Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Starvingartist
Posts: 3430
Incept: 2011-01-03
Green
Puff The Magic Dragon
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
firefighting should be local volunteer only


----------
"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Theox
Posts: 581
Incept: 2009-01-30
Silver
People's Republic of Maryland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Note that if salaries go up 3% a year (which was a reasonable expectation until the last decade) then they double every 35 years


Karl- if salaries go up 3% a year, wouldn't they double in about 25 years?
Rolldog1
Posts: 8
Incept: 2011-08-01
Silver
Midwest
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I throw this out as I would like to hear what others have to say on this. I've read several authors with similar arguments and conclusions, namely:

"You had better come to grips with these FACTS and demand that the lies stop, because if we don't and continue to allow votes to be bought with fraudulent promises that cannot be kept then it is inevitable that our nation's economy and government will collapse."

and I'm left with one question - "What does it take for this to actually happen?"

I see that the government is doing its best to squash the OWS movement. Stories come out every day of some governmental entity, US or abroad, covering up for the bankers, privileged, etc. Most people care more about DWTS, Kim K or other irrelevant junk. What will it actually require before this s*** stops? 10 million people marching? Armed resistance? Revolution? I'm not advocating any one thing but short of throwing everyone out in Washington and starting over, what the h*** needs to happen?
Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
TheOx - sorry, 24 yearsish. Will fix.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
What will it actually require before this s*** stops? 10 million people marching? Armed resistance? Revolution? I'm not advocating any one thing but short of throwing everyone out in Washington and starting over, what the h*** needs to happen?

The options are to either (1) choose to address this or (2) you ultimately get a collapse of some form, and nobody has a clue what will come out the other side of that, except that you're VERY unlikely to prefer it to what we have now!

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wis/min
Posts: 5363
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold A True American Patriot!
On the border
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
In 35 years, when salaries double once, costs double between three and four times, or 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 (approximately; actual value of about 10x) the original cost while wages have only multiplied by 2!


This should be changed to reflect the 25 year figure as well
Rd
Posts: 470
Incept: 2008-02-27
Gold
Long Island, NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Based on the current stock market I feel the central banks will continue to be able to kick the can down the road by monetizing debt. I thought the public would be outraged by this and the CB would be politically forced to stop, but people don't want pain and don't want to know the details. One day they will miss the can and kick the wall.

It sucks to know at some point we are going to live through tumultuous times.

Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I've stated on this forum several times only to be blasted as a liberal socialist that I prefer as much government as we are willing to pay for. And no more. That appears to be about 18-22% of GDP is all we are willing to pay for. So it's time to sharpen the pencil.

----------
I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Duc888
Posts: 7368
Incept: 2008-11-06
Gold
CT, the UNconstitution State
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Protect the borders. Pretty much all else can be privatized.

----------
...burp
Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Government at all levels is about 50% of GDP. About half of state and local needs to disappear as well. That pencil sharpening is going to be very painful (about a 25% haircut on GDP BEFORE the dislocations start to take place).

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Fraudster - the taxation that normally runs 18-21% is just the federal taxation right? And it includes all receipts of the Federal Gov doesn't it.

Someone else help me out here as well. Trying to make sure I got my head around the numbers correctly.

----------
I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
About 18% currently. The Federal Government has never successfully managed to get more than about 20% of GDP (21ish is the highest it's ever managed.)

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
Posts: 4175
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Make that 41%.


http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/curr....

With a required 50% cut in spending at all levels, we are looking at a starting point of about a 20% decline in GDP.

----------
"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Randy123
Posts: 5785
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
My plan is the one hip plan. You can only get one hip done. Choose wisely.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Bohemian
Posts: 9658
Incept: 2010-07-27
Gold
California
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
That beach in Cabo is looking good. 99-yr lease ain't so bad after all.

----------
"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
Steelhead23
Posts: 2042
Incept: 2008-09-09
Green
Portland OR
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Nice argument. I happen to like fiscal conservatism, but I am not confused about what that term means. I suspect that in the highly unlikely event that the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction presents a plan that includes new taxes, even modest new taxes, the Republican members of the committee would be vilified by their own party and the bill would die. The Republican Party has abandoned fiscal conservatism in its zeal to lower taxes and is now viewing the Americans for Tax Reform Pledge as more binding than their oaths of office.

----------
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Porkchop
Posts: 143
Incept: 2007-07-15
Gold
Joliet, IL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
First, I agree the path were are on in unsustainable, but can we kick the can down the road a little longer by declaring the SS trust fund the lie that it is and null the debt we "owe" ourselves? I have thought about this a long time...how would the markets' react?
Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
No Pork, because that's actually neutral.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Abn0rmal
Posts: 9261
Incept: 2009-01-10
Green A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Genesis wrote..
Now temper that with the following: Every service you demand must be paid for in current taxes.

Violation of that second precept is why we're in this mess
Without the ability of some people to force other people to pay for services involuntarily violations of that precept would be effectively impossible.
Coondog
Posts: 1582
Incept: 2008-01-21
Green A True American Patriot!
MI
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Perhaps the question should be, "What services cannot be supplied via local and state/regional providers?" Personally, I can't see any reason to even have a federal government. I hereby withdraw my consent.

----------
"The purpose of all political action should be to promote liberty. We should always maintain the conviction that free people will be able to take care of all of their needs. When government gets involved, it can do things with a lot of good intentions, but it cannot do so without undermining our liberties." - Ron Paul
Genesis
Posts: 130747
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I disagree. I believe our Constitution is just fine.

As originally written.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last