Read The Previous Ticker. Again.
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-11-09 15:28
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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Read The Previous Ticker. Again.
 

The Democrats are reported to have walked out of the "stuporcommittee."

Let 'em.

The downgrade will be next, and then we'll see what they try to do in order to prevent the automatic spending cuts.

Incidentally, the alleged Republican snit is over $30 billion a year in increased taxes.

They're claiming, of course, $300 billion, but that's over 10 years, and like all these numbers everyone is claiming the 10 year numbers to make it look better.

Well I can play that game too: The Deficit over 10 years is going to be $17,000 billion.

Care to play that game you jackasses?  Go right ahead.  And while you're at it you better pay attention to what MF Global did, because the rest of the clearing firms and brokerages -- all of them -- are potentially exposed in the same fashion to American debt.

This bull**** must stop.

Now.

If it doesn't then what is happening in Europe is coming here.  Not in many years, not in many months, now.

"It's all about Obama's re-election" eh?  That's fine - I'll see you at DOW 3,000 and a bond market revolt, and if The Fed tries to QE around it, $20/gallon gasoline.\

(PS: They're not that dumb at The Fed - if that was to happen every bank would instantly implode due to the MTM losses multiplied by their leverage, which would sink them all - we wind up in the same place attempting that and they know it.)

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Soros
Posts: 3107
Incept: 2007-08-31

La La Land
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Can't the government just hire millions of firefighters, cops and bureaucrats? The taxes they pay will reduce the deficit to zero. The trick is hiring just enough but not too many and the annual federal deficit will be reduced to zero.

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So long and thanks for all the fish.
Fraudster
Posts: 4173
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Silver

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Quote:
If it doesn't then what is happening in Europe is coming here. Not in many years, not in many months, now.


I question this. The US is the center of the global financial system. A credit downgrade won't take us down. Capital is going to continue to flow from the periphery (Europe) to the center (US). I don't think we can detonate until everybody else does. That should give the US cover for at least the next year or two.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Genesis
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Not a chance.

Italy technically has 3+ years before they're ****ed.

Well?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
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If Europe is imploding, the capital has to continue to go somewhere. As you have pointed out in the past, nobody has the depth in the capital markets that the US has. This should shield us, I think, while we watch Europe implode. Once that has happened (or perhaps after Japan), then it will be our turn.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Genesis
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Wrong.

In a liquidity collapse all correlations go to "1".

What do you think today is?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
Posts: 4173
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Silver

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So where does capital go?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
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Quote:
the capital has to continue to go somewhere


??? what "capital" ???

Really. All this "capital" is are a bunch of sovereigns buying each others debt w/ debt of their own. Maybe it's just a 'velocity' - servicing fees for the banksters, etc.

"Trust" in the markets has been violated. It won't come back quickly.
Genesis
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Into the mattress.

Like today. "Metals to the moon if the Euro is blowing up!"

Uh, no. That's a Margin call gentlemen.

The problem is that few people have actual CAPITAL. What they have is margin against levered positions, and it disappears FAST in this sort of event.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Pika-steph
Posts: 54698
Incept: 2007-09-11
Gold A True American Patriot!
Live Free Or Die; US Army Est. 1775
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Dude...when the ****ing money is GONE, it's GONE. Who precisely is going to have money to buy bonds?! Anywhere. Who the hell would WANT to even if they COULD?!

Pay no attention to our 10-year auction today...despite outright panic in the markets. smiley

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Stop the Looting; Start Prosecuting - http://www.FedUpUSA.org/
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"The only regulation that really works is failure."--Rick Santelli
Templar223
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Champaign, IL
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As much as I support your calls for making big changes, you're delusional if you think they are going to happen now, or even months from now.

It will take a process of YEARS and be very tumultuous to say the least and will only happen as a result of cataclysmic events forcing these changes.

Politicians won't commit political suicide by calling for massive entitlement cuts.

John
Digitlman
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I want this ****er to hit -400 for the day. Come on!
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
(PS: They're not that dumb at The Fed - if that was to happen every bank would instantly implode due to the MTM losses multiplied by their leverage, which would sink them all - we wind up in the same place attempting that and they know it.)


I am in agreement with you here. I think the Fed knows it swam right up to the edge of a waterfall and that going any further with the QE means they go over. This operation twist is probably evidence of that becuase if they had felt safe with more QE they would have done it.

As for captial, very little capital has been created since 1980 when compared to the amount of debt that has been rung up. Part of the debt can/will be paid, the rest will go poof. Be very careful everyone, like I've done in the past I will to the best of my recollection provide a quote from The Automatic Earth: "The role of the little guy is to be the empty bag holder."

I take that quote and all I can come up with for a strategy is tangible assets and cash. Maybe some gold/silver in that you could hide it and it thus would be immune from seizure and taxes.

Flap




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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Redneckgreener
Posts: 42
Incept: 2011-11-03

Utah
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Politicians won't have any control over it. They're out of control now, but are hoping nobody notices. But just because you don't think somebody will notice doesn't mean they won't.
Bagbalm
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Most money is a magnetized spot on a whirling hard drive. When that is erased or corrected to read zero we have what little is printed on paper.
Creditcalmass
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New Englands Rising Star
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Capital?!?!?!?!?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, that's a good one.

95% of the "capital" in the world exists as a result of debt, i.e. it doesn't really exist at all.

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"True strength lies in gentleness"
Lowbeyond
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CO aka West NJ/East CA
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Has CNBS told retail to BTMFD yet ?

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Jubber
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some prick just said 1325 by year end

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Glennb6
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ne florida
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I'm going to ask a stupid question which I think I know the right answer to, but given we're living in bizarro world, here goes-

what comes first? congress passing the bills necessitating the fed to create the money from nothing, or fed tells gov that there must be more money in existence so go pass some bills so we can create it.

sorry for the dumb question.
Jwm_in_sb
Posts: 1041
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Gold
California Desert
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Yeah Glenn, and that same afternoon you'll pay $6/gallon at the pump too.too
Jpg
Posts: 329
Incept: 2009-03-23

MI
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Quote:
If Europe is imploding, the capital has to continue to go somewhere.
To the US? Does that make for a stronger dollar? If so, recall the correlation since early '09 between the strength of the dollar and the level of the US stock market indices.

Quote:
some prick just said 1325 by year end
DJIA or SP500?
Ls2gto
Posts: 482
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Green
East Coast
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Fiat capital goes into the furnace to keep you warm, since you can't eat it and there will be no other use for it.
Jubber
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LOL however I guess you could see the Euro go nuts as Europeans sell everything to repatriate Euros back home???

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Geschrei
Posts: 468
Incept: 2009-02-23
Gold
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Speaking of CNBC - here is a collection of news headlines culled from the front page of CNBC.com at precisely 4:07pm EST today, 9 November 2011:


Markets: 'Contagion Spreading; They've Got to Stop This'
Banks Will Go Up, Market Will Follow: Dick Bove

'Complete Disaster' Possible This Month: Analyst
Oil Could Hit $150 a Barrel in Near Term: IEA

As Banks Stop Hiring, Industry Safety Net Rips Apart
Dumping US Bank Stocks 'Nuts': Dick Bove

No Bull Market Coming for 'Years': Technician
Dow to Rise to 12,600 by January: Charts

Why 2012 Looks Uglier for US Investors
Chartist: Industrials to Gain—So Get In!


Yeah, the 'experts' really sound like they all know what's going to happen.

smiley

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“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern. Every class is unfit to govern.”

Lord Acton (1834 - 1902)
Jubber
Posts: 13985
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Why do they persist with that prick Dick Bove? is he the only Bank analyst in the US or something?

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
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