Here Comes The Double Dip (Empire)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-10-17 10:22
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Here Comes The Double Dip (Empire)
 

Sorry folks, the "recovery" meme has just run out of gas....

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in October. The general business conditions index remained negative and, at -.5, was little changed. The new orders index hovered around zero, indicating that orders were flat, while the shipments index rose above zero to 5.3. The inventories index stayed below zero, a sign that inventories declined. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received fell, but remained positive, suggesting that price increases moderated. The index for number of employees rose several points but was at a relatively low level of 3.4, while the average workweek index was negative for a fifth consecutive month. The future general business conditions index dropped six points to 6.7, its lowest level since early 2009, while future indexes for prices paid and prices received declined.

Yuck.

There is utterly nothing to indicate success in "reflating" or "restarting" the economy here.  Nothing.

This report is just flat-out terrible, no ifs ands or buts.  I wish there was some other way to put this, but there isn't.  What's worse is that the composite is now sitting just about where it was in 2010 and just before it all went to hell in 2008.

So what we have here is more validation for my beliefs: The Fed delayed but did not avoid the contraction in 2010 with its "QE2", and in engaging in that program it weakened both itself and the government in general by destroying both's ability to respond in the future to financial stress.

Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked.

This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what's right rather than what's politically expedient didn't do so.

You're about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington.

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Comments.......
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User Info Here Comes The Double Dip (Empire) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Dashingdwl
Posts: 9752
Incept: 2007-06-26
Gold
los angeles
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Oh, dude, don't be so negative... Apple sold, like, 4 million iPhone 4S's in 3 days!!!

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Etz
Posts: 13886
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
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Leave it to corrupt puppet "we must pass this bill" and bankster stooge "it can't happen here" to really **** things up.

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Digitlman
Posts: 328
Incept: 2011-03-04

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but...but...QEx has made me "paper-rich" again!

Huzzah!

It's always fun at the top of the roller coaster, until you look down and see the wild ride you are about to take on the downward portion. Buckle up.
Randy123
Posts: 5767
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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Never left the first dip. Get it right

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Quads4444
Posts: 1628
Incept: 2007-11-09
Green
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Yep. They need to create another..."the sky is falling, the sky in falling, the sky is falling.....we need to pass this $3 trillion (pick a number) bailout package within the next 24 hours or else the whole system will collapse."

In the meantime they did nothing in the last 3 years to address...

1) The 'too big to fail'.
2) Reduce leverage in the system.
3) Reinstate Sarbanes–Oxley.
4) Beef up capital requirements.
5) Regulate naked derivatives.
Jake3463
Posts: 769
Incept: 2010-03-06
Green
Allentown
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The music has to stop. Right now all that is going on is those that are in power are making sure there is a chair for them when it does. Congress and the executive is a bought and paid for group of celebrities who cannot rationally think out the intended let alone the unintended consequences of their actions.
Lrs
Posts: 296
Incept: 2009-02-04
Green
Missouri
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Quote:
Reinstate Sarbanes–Oxley.

Do you mean Glass-Steagall?

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"It is terrible to contemplete how few politicians are hanged."
-G.K.Chesterton, The Cleveland Press, 3/1/21
Jpg
Posts: 329
Incept: 2009-03-23

MI
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Quads4444 probably meant "Reinstate Glass-Stegall", but given the apparent significant discrepancies between "claimed value" and "actual value" of banks the FDIC takes-over, "Reinstate Sarbanes-Oxley" might be appropriate, too.
Onelegged
Posts: 265
Incept: 2009-11-13

NW Colorado
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Looks like Karl is incorrect. Look here. Everything is just peachy! This is going to be the best year for the economy EVER!

http://www.npr.org/2011/10/17/141415638/....

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Quads4444
Posts: 1628
Incept: 2007-11-09
Green
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..."Do you mean Glass-Steagall?"

Whoops!!! Thanks Li. I meant Glass-Steagall.

Mannfm11
Posts: 3530
Incept: 2009-02-28
Gold
DFW, Tx
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The latest Doug Noland is interesting. http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditb....

For those that want to get down to the brass tacks, skip down to the bottom and read the ring fencing portion. Doug points out the CPI rates around the world and raised the pertinent question. "When is the bond market going to take note"? He mentions that risk on or risk off we are probably in a mess. Risk free plus 3% is 6%. 6% on a 10 year bond means 7.5% mortgage rates and you can forget about the deficit coming in. There goes the credit rating of every up to your eyes in hock government on earth. He also covers the fantasy that it seems CNBS and Wall Street have been pawning off on us the past 2 weeks. That they can leverage insurance to bail out Italy and Spain.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Genesis
Posts: 130658
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Yep... the waiter is tapping his foot....and Bruno is near the door if you try to skip on the bill...

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Estadosundidos
Posts: 241
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Green
Canada
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You have to watch this video...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqN3amj6A....

BBC Speechless As Trader Tells Truth: "The Collapse Is Coming...And Goldman Rules The World"

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“A culture that does not grasp the vital interplay between morality and power, which mistakes management techniques for wisdom, and fails to understand that the measure of a civilization is its compassion, not its speed or ability to consume, condemns itself to death.” – Chris Hedges
Wis/min
Posts: 5361
Incept: 2009-08-14
Gold A True American Patriot!
On the border
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Quote:
You have to watch this video...
Old news posted previously.
Crow
Posts: 193
Incept: 2008-02-25
Green
Canada
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Stupidity is being kind, as is greed. Selling half million dollar homes to anyone with a heart beat was only going to end one way. The way I see it is, trap most everyone in debt, those that were sensible, kill with zirp and HFT.

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When does Keanu get here?
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