Gee, Bloggers Have Been Right? (Book-Cooking by Banks)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-09-30 21:32
by Karl Denninger
in Banking System
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Gee, Bloggers Have Been Right? (Book-Cooking by Banks)
 

Wow, what a shock...

The bottom line from the chair of the International Standards Board is that the European banks are fudging their books. This is not the Blogs making this assertion. It’s coming from the highest authority that exists.

That's supposed to be illegal if you do business here in the US, and many of these institutions do in one form or another.  Some are even primary dealers.

This is NOT just an intrepid blogger or three making this assertion.  It is IFRS, the highest authority there is in this regard.

Even when a model is used to measure fair value, that model must reflect current market conditions (including those as evidenced by observable transaction prices) and it should include appropriate adjustments that market participants would make for credit and liquidity risks. (ed: If there are liquidity risks the mark would be lower to reflect those risks, not higher)  Furthermore, the model must maximise the use of relevant observable inputs (eg market data) and minimise the use of unobservable inputs (eg the company’s own assumptions). A company cannot ignore relevant market data (including observable transaction prices) when it is clear that market participants would use that data in determining the price at which they would be willing to enter into a transaction for the financial asset.

It would therefore not be in accordance with either the requirements in, or the intent of, IAS 39 to measure a loss on government bonds classified as AFS financial assets solely by assessing the present value of the future cash flows arising from a proposed restructure of those bonds. It is hard to imagine that there are buyers willing to buy those bonds at the prices indicated by the valuation models being used. In my view it is therefore difficult to justify that those models would meet the objective of a fair value measurement.

That's from August, by the same organization - and now it has been repeated, in public.

The DAX was pounded for 2.5% today and our market was down a similar amount.  Banks were the big suffers, with Morgan Stanley being hit particularly hard.

If this game is not stopped by someone - either the participants themselves or regulators - we are headed directly for a repeat of 2008's meltdown and this time there is little or no government ability to interrupt it as the tactic of allowing firms to lie about valuations - the very tactic that interrupted the crash in early 2009 - has already been used!

The lies must stop NOW.

H/t Bruce Krasting

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User Info Gee, Bloggers Have Been Right? (Book-Cooking by Banks) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Notalent
Posts: 182
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Green
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smiley
lets see some fireworks
Icanhasbailout
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Green A True American Patriot!
Imaginationland
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How many divisions does the IFRS have?

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Mayorquimby
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The Archaic Past
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I think it is too late and some very bloody markets await us all.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
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Gold is theft.
Scrood
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sufferers not suffers

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Grumpy_bear
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More SRS please Mistress!
Online
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I believe he meant to say "Generational Buy" not "sufferers." Oh, wait, that was a Dick that said that, sorry.

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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.

Eli
Posts: 7212
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Silver
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The lies are so large and so pervasive there is no way to stop them now.

Millions of people are set to have their life's savings completely wiped out. This Ponzi scheme has run out of suckers, there is no way to prevent people from being utterly destroyed. If you are still in this fraudulent market as an investor you are toast.

The only thing to do now is to head for the bunker, that is if you are not already there.

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Mikek31
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Oh Dear, it gets worse...

Jon Weil blogged about this a few weeks back, and it ain't pretty:

Quote:
Greek Example

Take Greece’s largest lender, Athens-based National Bank of Greece SA (ETE), for example. Last month the company said it recorded an impairment charge to earnings of 1.3 billion euros ($1.8 billion) during the second quarter to write down Greek government bonds. It wasn’t as if the losses had suddenly materialized. Rather, they had been building for some time and were finally being recognized.

As of the end of 2010, about 90 percent of the bank’s 12.8 billion euros of Greek government bonds were labeled as either “held to maturity” or “loans and receivables,” in large part because of reclassifications out of the available-for-sale and fair-value categories during prior periods. There surely should be bigger losses to come, with Greek bonds now trading at levels that indicate a government default is almost certain.


So, in this bank's case, a mere 10% of their GGB's were labeled as "available for sale," while the rest got reclassified in order to dodge fair value reporting.

To say that the IASB letter is only the tip of the iceberg is an understatement: they're only talking about "available for sale" assets!

Quote:
Given that backdrop, there was a glaring omission in a much talked-about letter the IASB’s chairman, Hans Hoogervorst, sent last month to the European Securities and Markets Authority. Hoogervorst complained that some European companies seemed to be violating the board’s rules for financial instruments, noting the widely divergent approaches various banks used last quarter to account for losses on Greek government bonds.

Some companies, he said without naming names, weren’t writing down impaired available-for-sale bonds to fair value as they should have. And there’s no doubt he was correct.

There was a catch, though. Hoogervorst said his letter “does not address financial assets classified as held-to- maturity or loans and receivables.” In other words, he ignored the point that just maybe it was a horrible idea in 2008 for the IASB to let companies reclassify their bonds into those categories, even though that’s where much of the problem with overstated asset values resides.

There’s a simple solution here. In 2005, when the IASB and the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board began discussing how to overhaul the rules for financial instruments, they said one of their top three long-term objectives was this: “Require all financial instruments to be measured at fair value with realized and unrealized gains and losses recognized in the period in which they occur.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15....

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Intentional manipulation of markets is usually thought of as a crime, not a benefit, and should lead to indictments, not praise. -Karl

Genesis
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Yep.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Preidt2
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spokane/wash
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how do you jail any of them when the government allowed and blessed,corruption,
They want to make our fault while were at it.debt slaves march

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Puppets Under Destruction
Rd
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Long Island, NY
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Did one of the authorities just stop the music?

Better be already sitting down.
Etz
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The lies won't stop because the media and corrupt governments are owned by the same cockroaches that run the corporate boards of these criminal organizations known as TBTF banks.

Here's for when the whole scam blows up in their ugly ****ing faces smiley

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Enapa
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Me thinks the end is nigh......
Luvs_footie
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While the bloggers may have gotten it right........

Can I ask.......who is going to stand up and be counted and seek the power to be able effect the necessary changes?

Badges
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Massachusetts
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Soviet tanks were hundreds of yards from Hitler's Berlin Bunker and his staff was still worried about their titles. The Shah, Saddam, Obama all thought they could make a comeback. Like minor royals, and their footman these bankers will ride this fiat, fractional, Friedman-ite forced Utopia for as long as they can. Think along a more flexible Soviet Union, and of course you get the Putin.
Mo
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The boomer elite are the first politically correct generation. In order to be politically correct, you have to not only censor your speech, but also your thoughts. They believe if you think 'good' thoughts, good things will happen - Oprahism.

What you end up with is people with no imagination, no rigour, and no capacity to learn from experience.

Unfortunately for them and us, consequences turn up whether they've intended them or not.


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Bsfootprint
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Mo wrote..
The boomer elite are the first politically correct generation. In order to be politically correct, you have to not only censor your speech, but also your thoughts. They believe if you think 'good' thoughts, good things will happen - Oprahism.

Nice. Do you mind if I quote you?

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When I hear central bankers are blowing bubbles, I like to picture a large, happy and well-endowed male chimp named 'Bubbles'...
Sharon
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The notion that "belief" is operative in some way, causing the thing believed in to materialize, is a hoary one. As far as Western Civ goes, it traces back to Jesus (and probably Paul, if I know Paul). Christianity (and later Walt Disney) adjures us to "have faith," and the failure to "get what you want" (Rolling Stones) is usually ascribed to "lack of faith."

So your troubles are caused by just not believing hard enough.

I wouldn't be too hasty about blaming this mentality on the Boomers. We were certainly steeped in it from earliest childhood, but it predates us by a bit. And I hear this stuff from the younger generation, from time to time.

At some point it's helpful to realize that just all the standard comfortable belief systems of all societies--religious, social, political, economic--the whole works--are all bull****. Quite a bit of what passes for "science" is too. And all of it is surrounded by vast edifices and of supporting bull****, in which some basic bull**** premise is extrapolated on till you're discussing angels and the heads of pins.

My advice would be to stop believing in all of it, at the earliest possible time.



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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Onelegged
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If you take the past rumors about single banks/nation's banks having multiple Trillions or dollars of hidden crap on their books and then lend these rumors even 10% credence this alone should be enough to blow the entire economic world to smithereens WHEN evidence surfaces. This whole hide-the-sausage routine is like building a house with no foundation on sand in a tidal zone and then telling a prospective buyer for that house that it is sound place to live.

It is hard to believe that the whole thing could have become this utterly corrupt.

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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
Sangell
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Perhaps worth noting in regards to bonds issued by any EUROZONE country is that 2011 marks the highwater point of that area's labor force. It will shrink from now on. Pensioners will increase. Toss in the fact that youth unemployment rates are mostly north of 25% will also mean some of the most productive years of the existing labor force are being squandered.

This is new demographic territory that does not auger well for servicing existing government debt. Applying present values for future cash flows that are based on historical growth and population figures may not work.
Harrisonact
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canada
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The lies won't stop because the media and corrupt governments are owned by the same RENTIER cockroaches that APPOINT the corporate boards of these criminal organizations known as TBTF banks.

FIFY.

you can hide from reality but there's no escaping the consequences of hiding from reality.

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bilge
My playbook speaks español. Deal with it. Im too lazy to fix it.
Spanktron9
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Excellent point on Eurozone demographics, Sangell!

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"Winter is coming." -Motto of House Stark
"Mo'lon La'be"- Leonidas
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Tickergroupie
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Quote:
So your troubles are caused by just not believing hard enough.

I wouldn't be too hasty about blaming this mentality on the Boomers. We were certainly steeped in it from earliest childhood,


smileyThey were called fairy tales. Some of us left them behind long ago. Others, not so much, I guess.
Blurtman
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Banned
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Nothing wrong with belief, but without action to make these beliefs happen, it's not quite very useful. And faith, that is, belief that you can make things happen, is a good thing. But if you don't act, than so what.

And censure your thoughts!!?? Fook you. That may be the last realm of real freedom we wind up with.
Inline

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Mo
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It wasn't that good, BSfootprint. But go ahead.

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