Bernanke: I Smashed The China; You Eat Off The Floor
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-09-29 08:12
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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Bernanke: I Smashed The China; You Eat Off The Floor
 

Good God....

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's weak labor market was "a national crisis" that required attention from the White House and Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

The nation's weak labor market has come about due to multiple events, most of which Bernanke has encouraged if not outright caused.

Trade deficits are not sustainable in the intermediate and longer term.  Our trade policies are always touted as "beneficial" (e.g. more "free trade") and yet they always lead to larger deficit positions with those nations.  But trade deficits drain capital, and absent the central bank "filling the hole" by allowing unbridled credit creation the problem is self-correcting as nobody can tolerate an indefinite drain of capital from their nation. 

The problem that "filling the hole with credit creation" causes is that while credit and capital are fungible credit is leverage while capital is not.  China's "policy" of buying our treasuries is nothing more than a defense against the instantaneous inflation that would otherwise result from the inflow of unbalanced trade, but it is our fault that the imbalance exists in the first place.  At the same time those capital flows destroy manufacturing as it is capital, not leverage, that builds factories and industry in a sustainable fashion.

"Cheap money" policies simply encourage the replacement of capital with credit.  But the "prosperity" created by such is a chimera; unbacked credit creation is nothing more than a naked short against the currency in question.  That looks great when you're trying to balance a trade deficit that would otherwise force you to stop due to deflation in your country (and inflation in theirs) but replacing capital with credit is a ponzi scheme as it relies on indefinite exponential growth at a rate that exceeds the credit creation rate -- a feat that is mathematically impossible.

"We've had close to 10% unemployment now for a number of years, and of the people who are unemployed, about 45% have been unemployed for six months or more. This is unheard of," Bernanke said in a question-and-answer session following a speech in Cleveland. He called for policies "that could help them find work, train for work and retain their skills."

The solution to such a crisis is to do two things:

  • Stop with the freaking cheap money crap!  It must always be disadvantageous to use credit as a replacement for capital.  Capital formation is the bedrock of sound economic policy; it is only when new ideas, new businesses and hiring come from economic surplus that you have stable economic conditions, including actual growth.

  • STOP encouraging the offshoring of jobs.  You cannot lift up someone 10x your mass on your shoulders -- you will simply be pancaked.  We are a nation of 330 million people, roughly, and the so-called "developing world" has roughly 10x our population between those nations.  There is no way we can allow "free labor" competition with literal rice-paddy-tending peasants who have a per-capital GDP 1/10th or less of our nation's and not simply smash our per-capita earnings capacity into the dirt. 

Bernanke also urged policy makers to consider "strong housing policies to help the housing market recover." Better housing policies would "clearly be very useful," and would allow the low mortgage rates stemming from easy Fed policy to have more effect and help the economy recover.

If you do not own a house and wish to buy one, do you want prices to be low or high?

There is no difference between a big consumer durable good (houses) and cars, DVD players, bigscreen televisions or pairs of shoes.  We applaud "low prices" and call this competition when we go shopping for these items, but when it comes to housing we refuse to embrace free-market capitalism and instead continue to insist on financialization and ponzi schemes that massively distort the housing market.

This cannot work, it has never worked, and it will not work this time.  It is in fact the encouragement of this bubble economic nonsense that is Bernanke's greatest legacy failure in that not only has he been ChairSatan and denied -- repeatedly -- that this would lead to ruin (his famous "housing prices will be supported by strong demographics" screed to Congress in 2006!) but in addition was at The Fed when Greenspan was feeding the bubble in the early part of the decade and through silence endorsed and adopted his idiocy.

Lock that jackass up and throw away the key.

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User Info Bernanke: I Smashed The China; You Eat Off The Floor in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mackjoo
Posts: 49
Incept: 2008-01-28

Mount Kilimanjaro
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Right on!

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The ****storm is coming to your door!!!
Berkleyreindeer
Posts: 665
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Minneapolis , MN
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I'd be interested to see how quickly "unemployment" dropped if the extended benefits were cut. After hearing of several pregnant women asking to be laid off, you wonder how many people are gaming the system instead of taking that job offer for a few bucks less than the ego wants.

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It'll get worse. Just wait.
Moshe
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Could someone explain to me, in a sentence or two, what exactly is responsible for the offshoring of our jobs, and how to stop it?

Thanks.
Genesis
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Wage and environmental arbitrage is what makes it look attractive initially.

But it is not possible to sustain it for any length of time without credit and currency distortions fed by the Federal Government (e.g. deficit spending) and the central bank (Federal Reserve), because otherwise a trade imbalance drains your capital and decreases the divisor of your currency. It is thus, absent ACTIVE interference, self-correcting.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fraudster
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How much longer can it go on? Rhetorical question, because I know there is no answer.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Flappingeagle
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Quote:
Could someone explain to me, in a sentence or two, what exactly is responsible for the offshoring of our jobs, and how to stop it?


Quote:
Wage and environmental arbitrage is what makes it look attractive initially.


That answer is correct. Perhaps the key word is "initially". What happened is that many US companies mistakenly believed that they could move the dirty manufacturing offshore but keep the Process Engineering, the white collar high-tech or intellectual jobs, at home. But, it turns out that Process Engineers need constant contact and interraction with the manufacturing, so that went as well.

Then they tried to keep the Design Engineers at home thinking only Process Engineering needed to be near manufacturing. But, it turned out, just like many said it would, that Design Engineers need to work daily with Process Engineers to design high-quality easy-to-manufacture products, so they went too.

Now, you find yourself where your offshore manufacturing facility, if you've contracted with someone else to do the manufacturing, no longer needs you. They steal your design along with the knowledge you GAVE them, and compete with you using your own product.

Saving 1 to 3 cents on the dollar just bankrupted your firm.

This lesson in Lack-of-Foresight 101 is now over.


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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Sharon
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Odessa, Missouri
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Berkleyreindeer, to blame the unemployed for refusing to accept lower wages--especially in a context of steadily rising prices for necessities, and still-inflated housing costs--is worse than disingenuous.

Quote:
There is no way we can allow "free labor" competition with literal rice-paddy-tending peasants who have a per-capital GDP 1/10th or less of our nation's and not simply smash our per-capita earnings capacity into the dirt.


The solution, in your view, is apparently to insist that Americans accept their descent into third-world poverty--which will have been brought about chiefly (or entirely) by being systematically robbed of both their earnings and earning capacity by the machinations of a thieving and utterly corrupt criminal class of banksters and politicians.

The "pregnant women seeking to be laid off" is just a little inflamatory canard thrown in, in line with the customary "divide and conquer" strategy.

In the days before the banksters and government had set up to steal most of Americans' incomes and, more recently, their prospects of getting an income, you could support a family on one income, and June Cleaver stayed home all the time. She didn't have to beg for a few months off work for the last month of pregnancy and to tend her newborn.

What Karl is demanding is justice. What your are suggesting is that Americans accept their shackles, and that any attempt to avoid or postpone the inevitable shackles arises from pure greed and laziness.


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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Fraudster
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Well done Sharon. Tired of the yahoos around here.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Lugnut
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Green
New Jersey
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Nicely stated Sharon
Sharon
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Odessa, Missouri
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High housing costs, which Bernanke advocates supporting, are a central feature to keeping people enslaved. What the big house payment really means, for the vast majority of folks with a mortgage, is that something on the order of one-third of the family income is going for the mere servicing of debt. In most cases, the monthly house payment is almost pure interest, because of the front-loading of interest on mortgage loans. The mortgagor will be several years into the mortgage before any significant portion of their payment is applied to the principal.

So something like one-third of the family incomes of a majority of Americans with a roof over their heads is automatically siphoned off to the banksters. Obviously, this is true even if you're a renter. This payoff to the banksters is merely made indirectly.

Taking your town as a whole, that's a lot of prosperity being siphoned off to the Hamptons--and if it weren't being siphoned off, but rather spent into the productive economy, that prosperity could support a lot of local businesses and jobs.

And all you need to do, to divert this vast stream of money into the productive (and at least partially, local) economy, as opposed to dropping it in the mail to a bunch of blood-sucking criminals, is low housing costs.

In my area, housing costs are very low. This is partly because my area is pretty nearly "Dogpatch-by-the-Lake." Low housing costs mean most people own their homes outright, and this means they have much lower income needs. This, in turn, means that the elderly and disabled are not working as greeters at Wal-Mart, more of the moms can stay home with the kids, and Dad doesn't need to work two jobs. What this means, in turn, is that a lot fewer people are feeding the Beast with income taxes, gasoline taxes, and sales taxes.

Less hours spent feeding the Beast means that people can further reduce their expenditures (and hence taxes) by cooking at home, gardening, and doing their own home maintenance and home improvement. These reduced overhead costs may even allow them to have some savings, which will allow them to build on that five acres they own in the country.

Low-cost housing is the single biggest factor in enabling people to enjoy the use of their own incomes for their own needs, by starving the Beast at several levels. Getting the vampires off people's necks probably wouldn't hurt capital formation, either.




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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Ripley
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Sharon, asking to be laid off is pretty shortsighted right before one was to give birth, even if the event actually took place. I would have asked for unpaid leave under the family and medical leave act rather than to be laid off, if my job was where I got my health insurance. This does two things: it allows me to keep my group plan health insurance premium, and it allows my boss to avoid an increase in their unemploment insurance rates.

I'd need the job after the child was born.
Killben
Posts: 207
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Karl,

I like Perry only for this .. he is the most likely to "Lock that jackass up and throw away the key".


Sharon
Posts: 4352
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Green
Odessa, Missouri
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Ripley, I suspect most people who are asking to be laid off due to pregnancy have evaluated their situation. Most likely they don't even have health insurance, or it is through their spouse. Also, I suspect that asking for unpaid leave under the family medical leave act will do no more to endear you to your employer than asking to be laid off.

A lot of employers these days would like to lay off some employees. If pregnant women are asking to be laid off, it's probably because lay-offs are in the works, and they'd like to be at the front of the line.

If the job is insecure, low paying, and there are no benefits, as is most likely, it probably doesn't justify the demands and costs of child care. Child care for infants is very expensive. The moms may have already decided to stay home, and sacrifice the dollar an hour they'd earn from employment, after they paid for child care.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Anti
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Silver

Online
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Sharon, thanks for your description of your local economy. That is what America used to look like all over before the banksters got things levered up.


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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Sharon
Posts: 4352
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Green
Odessa, Missouri
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Anti, some of us remember what the economy looked like in the past. My dad, along with many other men when I was growing up, built the family home almost single-handedly. The were not prevented from doing so by hundreds of pages of building codes and volumes of restrictions. And the houses these men built were far better built than the ones the contractors build today (or used to).

Since a third of the family income wasn't going to the banksters, there was money to build a pretty nice house, drive a late-model car, to take family vacations, and for my mom to stay home until we kids reached our teen years.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Sharon
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Green
Odessa, Missouri
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Seems to me we have an element on here who are drooling at the mouth at the very attractive possibility of being able to pay future employees two dollars a day--or who are salivating about the effect of low wages on the profitability of the companies in their investment portfolio.

Or maybe they are just paid trolls.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Dakine2004
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Gold A True American Patriot!
MD.MI.NC.SD.
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Yeah - let's not have any dissenting views - navel gazing abounds...
Joejohns
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Banned
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Yeah, let's not cast about for those dreaded "others" to demonize in order to allow one to stand the stench of their own navel.
Eleua
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Sharon, smiley on all counts.

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http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/
"My object in life is to dethrone God and destroy capitalism." - Karl Marx
"Destroy the family, you destroy the country." - Lenin
"Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." - Stalin
Sharon
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Odessa, Missouri
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And heaven forbid anyone should reflect on the possible motives for particular opinions.

It seems to me that those with the agenda I've mentioned could just as well kick back: Two dollars a day is coming, without any need for them to exercise their fingers on here, in anticipation of the extra dough.

I don't know why they're breaking a sweat.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.

Grashopa
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Quote:

The solution, in your view, is apparently to insist that Americans accept their descent into third-world poverty--which will have been brought about chiefly (or entirely) by being systematically robbed of both their earnings and earning capacity by the machinations of a thieving and utterly corrupt criminal class of banksters and politicians.


Third world poverty is going to occur for precisely what you advocate. Telling people they are special and deserve to be paid more than other people destroys their competitive spirit. They no longer work hard and the business doesn't hire them because they other people are more skilled/hard working than they are. China has a middle class larger than the population of the US and those people are working the same middle class jobs we have. You are competing with these people whether you like it or not. The only rational response to this is to understand your value as a person and to work hard. Raving against supply and demand only serves to hurt the people who should be preparing.


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Theft is evil
Sharon
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Odessa, Missouri
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Quote:
China has a middle class larger than the population of the US and those people are working the same middle class jobs we have. You are competing with these people whether you like it or not.


Well now, I did say two dollars a day was coming, didn't I?

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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Sharon
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Green
Odessa, Missouri
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Ultimately (as I like to bring up once in awhile), the reason people in the US are in direct competition with people making two dollars a day is because of expropriation from the land.

I am not going to make a long post of this, but refer everyone to Henry George and Albert Jay Nock, if they'd like this point elaborated.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.
Jstanley01
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San Antonio, Texas
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Tickerguy wrote..
STOP encouraging the offshoring of jobs. You cannot lift up someone 10x your mass on your shoulders -- you will simply be pancaked. We are a nation of 330 million people, roughly, and the so-called "developing world" has roughly 10x our population between those nations. There is no way we can allow "free labor" competition with literal rice-paddy-tending peasants who have a per-capital GDP 1/10th or less of our nation's and not simply smash our per-capita earnings capacity into the dirt.
If we keep dumbing down education to the level where the average rice-paddy-tending peasant is smarter than the average American, subsidizing fraud and dependency with the blood sweat and tears of the productive, allowing craven aparatchiks to regulate every mint anise and cummin from the comfort of their civil-service-protected office chairs in Babylon on the Potomac, and building Ponzis that would have to reach heaven like the Tower of Babel in order to deliver as promised, we won't be able to compete with anyone on any terms that anyone on this planet can name.

Erect all the trade barriers in the world, and we will merely implode upon ourselves.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

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