The Reality of Credit Contraction
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-09-23 10:47
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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The Reality of Credit Contraction
 

Get a read of this...

This business owners' absolute refusal to pay any taxes resembles an uprising of the ownership class, rather than the working class, a rebellion of the self-employed business owners who have long been the backbone of Greek society. These are not the people who weaseled their way into Greece's oversized civil service; these are people who put their money in the private sector, working 12-hour days, seven days a week. Or so Belitsakos says.

That's a problem.  And why is this happening?  Read this from France....

 "If there is one field in which one must deplore that imagination took power without ever wanting to assume the responsibilities, it is finance: the citizens of the communities concerned will have to pay for twenty years for the nutty creativity of banking sector hotshots. Yet we know what comes next: more taxes, less spending and a freeze on future investment," the paper concludes.

Only if they'll pay... 

The reality is this: The alleged "prosperity" that was bought during those years was false.

No government can in fact provide services to the population on a durable basis that the population will not pay for with current taxes.  Not here, not in Greece, not in France, not anywhere.

All the claims of "financial engineering" are in fact lies.  None of them actually do work because they can't work.  It is mathematically impossible over the longer term.

Look, go back to Excel.  In cell A1 put in "10" and in cell B1 put in "10".  This will represent 10 units of GDP and 10 units of debt (pick your units, billions, trillions, euros, dollars, whatever)

In cell A2 put in "=A1 * 1.04"  That's 4% GDP growth.  Now extend that downward 100 rows (CTRL-C on cell A2, then click cell A3 and drag it down to A100, then hit CTRL-V)

In cell B2 put in "=B1 * 1.07"  That's 7% debt growth in the economy as a whole.  Now extend that downward 100 rows too just as above.

Take the range of A and B and graph them. 

That's what we tried to do.  These are not hypothetical numbers - the approximately 3% spread has existed since the 1950s and it is mathematically impossible for it to work in the long term.  When this became apparent in the 1980s we stomped on the accelerator with more and more scams to keep the illusion alive.

Now, if you want to see how badly you're really screwed, set up a column "C1" and make it "=B1 * .05"  This will be the blended rate of interest across the entire debt.  Extend that and include it in the graph.

Go ahead an play with the numbers all you want.  You will find the following is absolutely true as a matter of mathematical fact:

  • No matter what you do, so long as debt expands faster than output (GDP) the two curves will run away from each other.  You can change how long it takes but not the outcome.

  • No matter the rate of interest, so long as it is positive, you eventually cannot pay.  Again, you can change how long it takes before the interest expense exceeds all of your output (and thus it is impossible to pay) but not the outcome.

It does not matter if you like these facts or not.  It does not matter how you figure the percentages or what you do with interest rates.  You cannot change the outcome so long as debt expands faster than output.  This is a mathematical fact and no amount of bluster and bull**** will change it, any more than you can legislate that 2 + 2 = 5 and actually make it so.

Now here's the worse news.  That 4% GDP and 7% debt growth?  The latter is also the rate of the growth of the US Federal Government over the last ten years -= it has doubled in size over the last decade, while the economy has expanded about 40%, or ~3% annually.  The fraud of "baseline budgeting" and the claims of both of our political parties are mathematically certain to lead to the same result as you see in that graph -- unless we cut it out.

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User Info The Reality of Credit Contraction in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mo
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The Greek businessman protest will bring the Euro pigman game to an end very quickly.


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Smacktle
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I wonder how far it will have to go before I stop paying my taxes. Maybe pretty soon we find out eh?

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Uwe
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19446
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KD wrote..
That's a problem.

Business owners deciding to starve the beast is a problem? Why? I applaud them.

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Flaps10
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Here's what I get:

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Pika-steph
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This is what's wrong with socialism - a real-time demonstration. Eventually the only people left working to support everyone else decide they aren't going to do it anymore OR the taxes become so high, it just collapses the business.

Pay attention you far-left liberals. Your 'redistribution' plans are BS. It can't, doesn't and won't work.

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Scotthcannon
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It seems so simple to me and yet our so called educated elite do not get this?? I just do not understand the world we live in. As an engineer I am cursed by the simple fact that 2+2=4 and yet I have been told by a judge in a case that I lost against the government that if the gov says 2+2=5 then it is. I have come to the conclusion that the majority of the population can not reason or use logic and that everything is just an emotional response to the latest thought of the moment..

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Trades50
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Quote:
I wonder how far it will have to go before I stop paying my taxes


They arranged the tax collection where they get a steady stream of income. It's automatic on gasoline purchases. It's become almost impossible to have a tax revolt. The US built their tax bureaucracy to be self sustaining.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Snowmizuh
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I realize this isn't the point, but 4% GDP is probably way too high a projection.

The population growth rate for the U.S. is around .9%.* Natural GDP growth should be around that, plus a bit of a boost factor from productivity gains. How much productivity gains will there be though? I pace of technological innovation appears to be slowing, if you look it it from a 50-100 year perspective.

Default is inevitable. From a policy perspective, we should be putting all resources towards preparing for that. What will be expensive after default? Energy.

Better get to building those thorium reactors; otherwise, we're going back to 1800s era technology.

* "Monthly Population Estimates for the United States: April 1, 2000 to December 1, 2009 (NA-EST2009-01)". U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. December, 2009. Retrieved 2010-01-06.
http://www.census.gov/popest/national/NA....
Mannfm11
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What about 14% earnings growth. This is usually Wall Streets constant estimate, save for when earnings get bad, then of course, they surprise upward, as 80% decline allows for 400% gain in order to get even. The KD model pretty much simplifies it all, except 80% of the population is too stupid to get it. I tried to explain it to a girl in a restaurant last night. Might as well have been talking about 2 dogs ****ing.

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Deepsee100
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Unfortunately, a lot of people either don't get it, won't get it, or worse refuse to get it. Its somebody else's problem right?


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Duc888
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Quote:
It seems so simple to me and yet our so called educated elite do not get this??


You answered your question in your own sentence, because they're "elite".

They're ENITILED to automatic pay raises, the best health care (taxpayer) money can buy....etc.

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...burp
Verredesoleil
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Mannfm I can relate, people don't want to hear about any of it. The operative term is: shovelling **** against the tide + la la la la la la = state of reality in the U.S. and especially with women. Any negative (ie, reality) commentary and your "deal is blown".

Inline
Wearedoomed
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Snow: Tech innovation is slowing because it's so expensive to bring an idea to market. That can be blamed primarily on the financial elite and their pals in government, really. After all, if it's expensive to get to market, then you'll just have to take out a loan to get over that barrier - and tax law contains perverse incentives to borrow.

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Snowmizuh
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@Wearedoomed, I don't disagree from an applied science/engineering perspective. My point is more from a basic science perspective. We aren't _discovering_ new stuff at the rate we were in the early 20th century.

Maybe CERN can turn the recent superluminal neutrino discoveries into a Warp drive. :)
Shanearthur
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Karl,
PLEASE PUT THIS SIMPLE EXCEL EXERCISE INTO VIDEO FORMAT! As you say, math doesn't lie, but people are too lazy to read and actually do what you say. A picture is worth a thousand words, and a video is worth a million (and they go viral faster).

If you break this down on video, nobody will have an excuse not to understand this stuff.

I can't remember the exact post, but you had another example where you listed like 5 letters, each representing a different variable in the overall economy. That would be another excellent video.

Gates
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Wonder how long it takes until this conversation goes mainstream -
Blackswan
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I read this tragic story the other day. Not sure if it was posted anywhere.

Greek Crisis Exacts the Cruelest Toll

A suicide help line at Klimaka, the charitable group, used to get four to 10 calls a day, but "now there are days when we have up to 100," says a psychologist there, Aris Violatzis.

The caller often fits a certain profile: male, age 35 to 60 and financially ruined. "He has also lost his core identity as a husband and provider, and he cannot be a man any more according to our cultural standards," Mr. Violatzis says.

(further down in the article)

Small businesses struggled with cash shortages because they had to pay their overhead when due, but wait months for hard cash from customers. Mr. Petrakis managed the same way other small entrepreneurs did: To get money quickly, he took his customers' postdated checks to banks and sold them at a discount.

If he had a check for €1,000 that couldn't be cashed for five months, a bank would give him €800 right away, then another €100 on the date the check became cashable, his lawyer, Aggelos Zervos, says. The bank would keep the remaining €100.

Though this gave Mr. Petrakis the cash he needed, it ate into his revenue and margins. "Without realizing, we were slowly going bust," Mrs. Petrakis says.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424....

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Mdporter
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Quote:
As an engineer I am cursed by the simple fact that 2+2=4 and yet I have been told by a judge in a case that I lost against the government that if the gov says 2+2=5 then it is. I have come to the conclusion that the majority of the population can not reason or use logic and that everything is just an emotional response to the latest thought of the moment..


Never forget that judges are government agents. When you are up against the government the judge is not an impartial person, he is an employee. If his employer loses too much money then the judge won't get paid. 2+2=5 whenever they need it to.
Mannfm11
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Worse Md, the Judge works for the bar. This means their business is to **** us out of as much as they can if we don't get a lawyer and sometimes even more if we do get one. One of the most damnable things ever pulled in the US Republic was to allow the bar to take over the Judiciary. The members of the bar should be prohibited from serving in other branches of government.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
12bolt
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Quote:
The members of the bar should be prohibited from serving in other branches of government.


A-Freekin-Men! And I'm married to one... well a former one.

:)

Billonthehill
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Blackswan,

One of my former business associates killed himself last week.

He owned one of the most successful small ISP's in Colorado. He sold it two years ago for a great profit and invested heavy in real estate in the Aspen area at the top of the market.

I saw him two months ago and he was totally broke driving a twenty five year old broken down pickup. He had lost his cars, house, girlfriend. When I saw him at 11 am on a Saturday morning he was drunk and yelling at people on main street.

Now dead.

Another associate in Aspen that owned Kinichi Restaurant in Aspen offed himself a few days ago. Drugs and alcohol are said to be the reason but I wonder.

Dropping like bloated flies.

RIP dudes.

Glad I made my break in time and fully prepared for what we are facing.

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"Interesting to be talking about Deeds of Trust. When there is no trust." - Anonymous Caller to KOH Reno Talk Radio 10.21.10“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”Churchill 36

"

Randy123
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More important things than money....Rich people will take the depression hard. If you don't have **** to begin with, its easy to get used to

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New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Videopro
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Quote:
Karl,
PLEASE PUT THIS SIMPLE EXCEL EXERCISE INTO VIDEO FORMAT! As you say, math doesn't lie, but people are too lazy to read and actually do what you say. A picture is worth a thousand words, and a video is worth a million (and they go viral faster)


DING! DING! DING! We have a winner!

I couldn't agree more. Albeit the average TF reader has 'some' degree of attention span, you won't find the same in the larger population if indeed you are trying to convey a topic or concept worth investing time in.

They (especially 'they' that are men) function in tiny and brief soundbytes that MUST be visual in nature at the core if you hope to hold the larger audience. This is what anyone involved in the media such as myself know intuitively and is basic to the approach of how we author and construct our stories.

And don't forget, if you do create a video of that formula, do NOT stay on any one segment/scene/cut with or without narration for over six (6) seconds. You *automatically* exceed the average viewers attention span if you do. A chained sequence of 'tiny *brief* nibbles' of compact detail is just about the only way anyone is able to absorb anything anymore. Take it from someone that has learned the hard way about this when doing my own productions for distribution.

Call it collective ADHD culture, requirement for instant gratification, whatever. It is what it is.

Just sayin'

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"The Spinning Cyclone Of Deflation Is Fueled By Deficit Spending. An efficient asset destroying storm powered by the printing press". - Me

When the Nazi's broke every law when coming to power, people in later years were asked, how were they allowed to do it? The answer was easy: They Simply Did It.

Mannfm11
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Gates wrote..
Wonder how long it takes until this conversation goes mainstream -


It won't ever go mainstream. The solution would mean banking couldn't be a growth industry. People would demand the protections of banking cease. Economics books would be rewritten. Banking would likely be nationalized as a depository and deposit creating entity and all other credit lending would be done at risk. There would be courses taught in elementary school about the dangers of putting your money into a credit creation scheme. Thus, Leviticus would be part of the education system, a replication of a hard lesson learned by a race of people caught in bondage in a debt scheme country, aka Egypt.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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