CPI: Smoking!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-09-15 09:02
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
CPI: Smoking!
 

What's the "misery index" again?  I seem to remember it being 12-month chained inflation and unemployment.  Well?

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

But but but.... there's no inflation, right?

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as the previous month. Shelter and apparel were the biggest contributors, though the indexes for most of its major components posted increases, including used cars and trucks, medical care, household furnishings and operations, recreation, tobacco, and personal care. The new vehicles index, unchanged for the second month in a row, was an exception.

The "but it's all energy prices and they're volatile" excuse is long in the tooth and running out of gas.  That dog won't hunt any more folks....

The energy index has risen 18.4 percent over the last year, while the food index has increased 4.6 percent.

Of course Senior Citizens who were prudent and saved don't have a problem with this, right?  After all they don't need to buy food or energy... and neither does anyone else.... right?

This doesn't disproportionately hit the lower class and working poor, does it?  I mean, food and energy aren't a disproportionate amount of their spending, are they?

Hmmmm....

There are some big numbers in the tables - of note are virtually everything food-related, up 4% or better across the board with some things such as meats and dairy up 8 and 9% respectively.  Fuel oil was up a stunning 27%, water and sewer services up nearly 5%, apparel up 4% and private transportation costs up an eye-popping 12% - with public transport costs skyrocketing as well (7.2%).

Hospitals jacked people for 6.2% more while higher education screwed you to the tune of 4.4%.

These are annualized changes (from August 2010) and put into stark relief exactly what sort of squeeze has been felt by the common person.  Everyone loves to talk about "oh it's 0.2% this month" but few will go back and look at who this hits and how hard - and how it all looks on a annualized basis.

When you look at the monthly change in these categories you find no joy either.  Monthly change on food was 0.6; annualized that's 7.4%.  Apparel was up 2.3% last month, which you better hope doesn't continue (as it's an annualized rate of change of 31%!)  Both private and public transport, thank God, did level off this last month.

In short while the inflation trend may be slowing down for the lower class and working poor the damage has already been done.

Make sure you thank Ben and Obama.

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User Info CPI: Smoking! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Randy123
Posts: 5776
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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No more Ensure for you Grandma. Too expensive.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Mangoelvis
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Silver
Las Vegas, NV
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I was just complaining the other day that it seems like now I'm getting smaller packages AND higher prices at the grocery stores.


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Evolutionarily speaking, sloths must taste terrible.
Crossthread
Posts: 4548
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Green
Wilmington, NC
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Quote:
Mangoelvis:I was just complaining the other day that it seems like now I'm getting smaller packages AND higher prices at the grocery stores.


I, (As all TF members here), noticed this months ago..
now, it's small package's and Prices are just.... going up...
On a good note, gas dropped 3 cents, to.... 3.49...
I passed out the other Day, when I wanted some Mayo...
over 3.00 for 1 jar YIKES!
It wasn't even the brand I perfer, it was the "cheap" stuff.......
The "lines" @ the Local Food bank is getting longer by the Week...
In addition, I'm REALLY starting to notice *newer* cars W/bald tires, saftey lights out, etc...
I just got My lil car inspected...
i had 1 brake light out..
Auto-motive lights, (1127's), are 5.00 for a 2 pack! OUCH!

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“Cognitive Co-Dependency” is when a normal rational person, internalizes irrational illogical presentations, and somehow reconciles them to fit their scripted indoctrination of logical analysis.
Quote:
Samuel L. Clemens:There is NO Native Criminal Class; EXCEPT for CONgress
Trades50
Posts: 4215
Incept: 2007-10-30
Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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Quote:
Auto-motive lights, (1127's), are 5.00 for a 2 pack! OUCH!


I noticed months ago the bulbs were going up in price. Companies have to keep quarterly profits going up as well. So their shrinking quantities as well as increasing prices.

An 8 ounce bag of FrioLay's Cheetos was 3.99 at the store. That's outrageous for what it is. Buy the store's value brand, which is less than half the price.

Guess people have to cut back or look for alternatives.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Starvingartist
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Puff The Magic Dragon
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Yep, it's hitting everyone hard. I'm fixing to buy my medicines from Canada, first time I've even thought to do that.


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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Tesla
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Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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Dried beans, rice, meat and produce from local producers only. Build a root cellar/cold storage and stock up at harvest time.

Starve the beast...just not yourselves smiley

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Matt_bear
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Gold
a week early on spy puts
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i've notice the package sizes in the grocery store are smaller yet again.

I've paid attention since 2007, noting the weight/size every couple of months

that 16oz bag of Doritos is now 11.5oz

20oz bottles of soda are now being replaced with 16oz. 12oz cans are still available, but they now have 8oz cans too.

Some types of bacon are now 12oz packages instead of 16. Same with pasta and sauce. The list goes on....

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In terms of real-world fundamentals, I expect that most of the people around me, whom I work with day to day, and whom I pass on the street ... will be dead within five years.
Dwedeking
Posts: 911
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Keaau, HI
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We've cut our pre-packaged food intake by about 60%. Initially it was because all that stuff is more expensive on the islands, but now when you guys get bumped up 5% for the price of something we get hit for 7% so it's even more relevant as inflation kicks in. I've noticed that the local farmers market is able to keep the prices the same (as long as you go on non-tourist days :) ) or at least much more stable (plus they're tax free).

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Looks like we're getting close to "CRUNCH" time.
Tnhermit
Posts: 348
Incept: 2009-02-18

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I watched as the Walmar lady changed price for halogen bulbs from 5.44 to 6.27 yesterday. 5 way outlet from 5.99 to 9.99. Hamburger 3.99 lb, butter 5.00 lb so-n and so-on. couple that with higher property taxes ,which are rarely mentioned and I've heard of increases as high as 37%. But hey we needed a X million 5 story library to hold the books in the one story existing
things are looking good for a rally
Starvingartist
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Puff The Magic Dragon
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I'm hard pressed to think of something that hasn't gone up lately...

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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
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Green
The Archaic Past
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If the average person is saving $5,000 per year at two percent, that means they are receiving $100 of taxable income to offset what is probably about $2,000 of price increases yoy. Even putting $50,000 in a five year cd at this point won't cut it.

This current trajectory is unsustainable and will result in more housing decimation, less capital formation and higher student defaults. Expect more margin compression and weaker profits as well. By winter I expect layoffs to ramp up once again after a disappointing holiday season.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Etz
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LA
Online
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Soup & Salad is now $8 at my local cafeteria.

Cockroach bankers rejoice smiley

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Splashdown
Posts: 556
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Central Illinois
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Walk into a hardware store and you'll see that prices have increased big time.

Silicone caulk is something like $4.99 a tube now..less than 2 years ago it was something like $2.99 Wall paint is up about the same amount.

It's pretty unreal...no one I talk to seems to give damn either - I'm basically the only one who seems to get worked up about it.
Mayorquimby
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You all have the ability to cut something and starve the beast. Dollars are your true vote. Save as much as you can and tell these sob's to **** off.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Widgeon
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Region formerly known as the United States
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If food prices have only went up 4% in the last 12 months I'll eat the wrapper my Ramen Noodles came in.
Tnhermit
Posts: 348
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Walked into Auto parts/paint shop for two quarts lacquer red /blue for a motorcycle restoration. Well Lacquer is no more.Thank you EPA. (I still spray catalyzed cabinet lacquer 5 gal 75.00 +/- ??) but they would gladly sell me the two quarts of enamel with hardener,reducer for 157.00. Really!

Steelhead23
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Portland OR
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You know, someone on this blog stated that for an inflationary spiral to get going, prices AND wages have to rise. Not if you've got Ben Bernanke batting for you. Nope, print enough money and you get price inflation in the face of a declining GDP. I believe the term they used for this in the 80s was stagflation. And this stag has his dick straight up our ass. Thanks Ben.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Mayorquimby
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The problem is that the monetizers believe deflation gives them the ability and freedom to print. But even though such printing is not hyperinflationary it is still undermining capital formation and working against them.

At the end of the day - we still have a political problem here - gvmt wants to overspend year after year and then call Bernanke to print them out of it.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Randy123
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Earth
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Mayor is right. Starve the beast and banks.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Randy123
Posts: 5776
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Green
Earth
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Of course I recently bought a house and my loan was promptly sold to Citi...Go figure.

----------
China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
Green
The Archaic Past
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smiley

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Grumpy_bear
Posts: 606
Incept: 2008-02-26
Green
More SRS please Mistress!
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When we have the same standard of living as the average Chinaman, the global goal will have been reached.

We have always been at war with EastAsia.

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Denninger, Karl. Leverage: how cheap money will destroy the world. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. p. 126, par. 3.
Smacktle
Posts: 1361
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Texas
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Refied my house awhile back and it went straight to one of the twins Freddie or Fannie.

Everybody is trained for prices going up. It's been happening ever since I was a kid. Just happening a little faster now.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw

Obseedian
Posts: 11872
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Silver
BBRY Central
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Quote:
I'm hard pressed to think of something that hasn't gone up lately...

Your standard of living.


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Would you give your money to these banks? http://bankimplode.com/list/troubledbank....

“Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin
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