More Confidence "Building"
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-09-10 14:05
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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More Confidence "Building"
 

Here we go again:

The First National Bank of Florida, Milton, Florida, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with CharterBank, West Point, Georgia, to assume all of the deposits of The First National Bank of Florida.

All fine, right?  All insured depositors are protected, we're all ok.

Right?

Yes, from that point of view - so far.

So what's the problem, you ask?  Right here:

As of June 30, 2011, The First National Bank of Florida had approximately $296.8 million in total assets and $280.1 million in total deposits. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, CharterBank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $46.9 million. Compared to other alternatives, CharterBank's acquisition was the least costly resolution for the FDIC's DIF.

Let's "do the math."

As of June 30th, less than three months ago, if you believe this bank's balance sheet the institution had an excess capital position (that is, assets .vs. liabilities) of 5.96%.  That is, it had 6% more assets than liabilities and thus was (almost) within regulatory capital minimums.

Today, we are told that the FDIC is going to lose $46.9 million on this transaction. 

In order for the reported balance sheet to be true the bank had to lose $16.7 million (its entire surplus) plus the $46.9 million the FDIC is now going to lose in less than three months.

That is, it had to lose $63.6 million in asset valuation in three months or about 22% of it's asset value.

Note that this institution has been claimed to be "troubled" for quite some time with non-performing loans.

If you believe that the alleged balance sheet presented on June 30th of this year was materially accurate in all respects as to the valuation of those assets, and that in less than three months time the bank lost 22% of its asset value and thus placed the FDIC in the position of losing $46.9 million on this transaction you're dumber than a box-o-rocks.

If you want to know why bank stocks are collapsing around the world and why credit markets are at risk of another seizure, you need only look right here for the reason.  12 USC Sec 1831o requires:

Each appropriate Federal banking agency and the Corporation (acting in the Corporation’s capacity as the insurer of depository institutions under this chapter) shall carry out the purpose of this section by taking prompt corrective action to resolve the problems of insured depository institutions.

We have a nearly-unbroken chain of bank failures going back to 2008 in which (c)(3) critical capital levels have been massively invaded without FDIC response and which in turn have led to these failures.

Incidentally the word shall appears in that statute 47 separate times.  The word "may" appears only 13 times.  The word shall has, quite simply, been repeatedly and intentionally ignored for the last four years and continues to be ignored today.

It is therefore only reasonable for the market to assume that all large financial institutions are similarly underwater on any sort of honest accounting basis and thus the only thing preventing them from blowing up is the ability to continue to roll over indebtedness and pick up dropped pieces of crack from between carpet fibers with which they can claim all is ok as they take another hit from the pipe.

This is where the confidence problem is rooted in the current market volatility and neither political party in the United States Congress nor either of the other two branches of government has done a damned thing about the wanton and outrageous violation of this section of law -- law that was put into place after the S&L crisis which arose due to the precise same willful and intentional aversion of regulatory eyes.

If this crap is not stopped the market will continue to press this bet on insolvency whenever it sees an opening to do so and eventually one or more large financial institutions will collapse exactly as occurred with Creditanstalt.  Since the governments of the world have "blown their wads" with lower interest rates, balance sheet expansion and outrageous deficit spending trying to cover up their own internal corruption and willful refusal to enforce the law that led to the 2008 market collapse when, not if, the market manages to tip one or more of these institutions "over the edge of the cliff" there will be no ability to stop the cascade of defaults and bank failures.

This is the legacy of our government on both sides of the aisle and will be written in the history books as the root cause capital market implosion that appears at this time to be utterly inevitable - not because we can't stop it but because our government refuses to hold the responsible parties accountable for both their actions and intentional inactions.

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Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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All that's required is prompt corrective action. We've had none it. This bank most likely failed due to commercial real estate and development loans gone bad. It would be interesting to see how many of these loans went bad and how long they've been allowed to remAin on the books at par without LLR being increased. I'd guess at least 36 months.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Phev
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"In order for the reported balance sheet to be true the bank had to lose
$16.7 million (its entire surplus)
plus the $46.9 million the FDIC is now going to lose in less than three months.


And the $14.123.000 they claimed as total equity, no ?
Mayorquimby
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The Archaic Past
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Excellent.

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They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey

Gold is theft.
Etz
Posts: 13888
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Silver
LA
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Financial fraud has been effectively decriminalized by a corrupt puppet government.
Quote:
The failure of the Department of Justice to convict any senior official of a major bank, and the almost total failure to indict any senior official of a major bank has moved from scandal to farce.

http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.....



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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Degaston
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Only 22% "drop" in asset prices? My math from last year shows that most of the time we've seen a "drop" of over 25% on the assets held by most of these banks going through receivership. I routinely suggest to friends that they read the press releases at http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2011.... to see for themselves what's really going on.

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3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.

Reason: "most of the time" not "routinely"
Cutemloose
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Southern England
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From my aerospace experience "shall" is used as a statement of intent...not a statement of condition.

".... the developed system shall operate at no more than 100 deg C...." this does not imply the system will be at 100 deg C throughout its development- but rather specifies the goal.

This interpretation of "shall" clearly questions the state that is allowed to persist during a period of adjustment from "under-capitalised" to "adequately capitalised".

My interpretation of "shall" is supported by the accompanying use of the term "prompt corrective action" as this implies a state of resolving a position of being under-capitalised- in other words in conflict with the capital requirement.

You can't "correct" something you’re not allowed to do, if you are not allowed to do the thing you are correcting.

“Attempted Murder” is illegal, they does not then go on to say that if you nurse the victim back to health you are no longer liable for the charge.
My interpretation here is a possible explanation of this seeming mathematical contradiction.

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Disclosure: I am of the Austrian school, of Rothbardian persuasion. I believe in minimal government. Spent 5 years and possibly $1million to see if business can be run on this basis (leaderless). Good news for me is that it can, and profitably, bad news is that it only works with responsible people.
Dji
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Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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Milton, FL. thats your neck of the woods, there was no speculation going on there right?

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Don't be a bag holder-Me

What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project
Nevertoolate
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Gold A True American Patriot!
San Antonio de Bexar de runover with illegals, Texas
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"our government refuses to hold the responsible parties accountable for both their actions and intentional inactions" BECAUSE OUR GOVERNMENT (The Senate and the House) ARE BEING BRIBED IN THE FORM OF POLITICAL CONTRIBUTIONS!


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"Socialist never mind stealing, as long as they are the ones doing the stealing. They never mind lying, as long as they are doing the lying."-Mannfm11

Before you attempt to beat the odds, be sure that you can survive the odds beating you.
Uwe
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Gold A True American Patriot!
19446
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Bankrate.com wrote..
Bankrate believes that, as of March 31, 2011, this bank exhibited a significantly below average condition, characterized by substantially lower than normal overall, sustainable profitability, very questionable asset quality, well below standard capitalization and much lower than normal liquidity. [...] The bank revealed, as previously stated, very questionable asset quality. [...] As of March 31, 2011, the bank displayed Below Normal balance sheet liquidity and a Seemingly Greater Than Prudent Dependence upon wholesale, or non-core liabilities [...] This bank has been rated significantly below average.

Source: http://www.bankrate.com/rates/safe-sound....

Why would anyone keep money in an institution like that? I.e. why did depositors leave $286 million in there, instead of forcing this crappy bank to close long ago by pulling their money out?

Could it be that they figured that the FDIC will cover them no matter what? Why is it that hardly anyone protests the moral hazard that the very existence of government deposit insurance creates?

-Uwe-

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“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” - John Locke
Jono
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I am confident that I will buy more PM'S AMMO AND FOOD and wait for the COLLAPSE!

They can't stop it, they may pospone it but not stop it. Its all planned out.

PREPARE PREPARE PREPARE be confident in that!

See ya on the other side of this mess.
Flappingeagle
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Phev, I'm not an accountant but I think "deposits of 280 million" is a liability. You owe the people their deposits back. Their net value is 296.8 - 280.1 gives a net worth of 16.7 million, assmuing there are no 'lies' in there, which of course there are/were.

Thanks Dega for the observation that there is usually a 25% haircut on the book value of the bank assets.

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Hitthefan
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Gold, real physical gold: no liabilities, no counterparties, no paper.

Inevitable hyperinflation lies ahead. The Fed will just print itself into oblivion. The ECB and the Chinese (all central banks) will be happy to just write off their US Govt debts, as gold enters a new orbit, and the paper gold market collapses. $50,000 gold in TODAY's prices.
Phev
Posts: 440
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Flappingeagle yes you're right "$16.7 million (its entire surplus)" and total common equity are [about] the same thing. Sorry...
Vitchilo
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If you apply the same numbers to BAC what does it give? I bet the FDIC goes bankrupt.

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Mannfm11
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There is no cause for the market to go down. It is what caused it to go up that is causing this mess. We had academicians sit and watch the Great Depression and hardly a bit of what caused the depression made it into the history books or the schools of economics. This was an intentional act and instead of teaching what happened, there was instead some legislation to keep the wolf out of the chicken house. But, there wasn't anything put in place to limit the growth of private and federal debt.

I have a degree in finance. I took 12 hours of economics. There was a lot of nonsense about everything, but the role of increasing and decreasing debt in an economy. The 1920's was a credit bubble and it was an international debt bubble between developed economies of the world. There is nothing in the economics books about it. The stock market boom of the 1990's was a resumption of a debt bubble, propelled greatly by the expansion of the books of the GSE's. Bush had his role, but the bubble had already blown up and the free ride of the massive leverage 100 to 1 PE's or fantasy values of stocks was gone. But, the attractiveness of housing and other real estate through the presence of the lowest interest rates in several decades and 10 years of inflated housing costs were set free to set a bubble in motion. This bubble was answer to a burst stock bubble because it could generate massive amounts of cash. Franklin Raines, in a speech in front of the Mortgage Bankers Association put out the challenge to double mortgage debt in the 2000's.

I didn't understand a lot of this stuff when I first arrived into the world of online debate 10 years ago. I did understand that bankers and other lenders go broke and we have a depression. I saw first hand how bankers go broke here in the 1980's. They lend too much money on bad investments. The level of debt in an economy wasn't something that was taught to me though, as the experience I had was local. Doug Noland started writing a weekly post called the Credit Bubble Bulletin for Prudent Bear about that time and I became a religious reader. Noland was on this game years before it came apart. I had read other stuff, like Prechters "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave" that gave me an idea what was coming, so a lot of this made sense.

My point here is no one of authority that is dealing with this mess knows anything about the cause or the solution. We have pariahs like Bernanke, who claim to know what caused the Great Depression, but what he thinks caused it is 180 degrees of what caused it. His solution is what caused it, because it had been done in various ways leading up to the Depression. Ponzi financing, enabled by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and ponzied up by Wall Street and other outfits caused the Great Depression. These were your great creators of leverage.

One thing Prechter said in "At the Crest" was one of the few things I had read at that time that made sense. He said the game of credit depended on confidence, the confidence the borrower could pay his debts and the confidence the lender would get his money back. Is there any money being loaned on confidence today? No, it is being loaned so the banker can scrape more bonuses out of it and borrowed to stay afloat. Then we have sovereign debt. Look at the change in confidence going on in this avenue?

Here is the bad news. What can't be paid, won't be paid. What is this? It is about all of it potentially, once it all starts to break down. Debt is stated in percentage of GDP, but GDP really bears little relation to anything other than what the economy looks like once the government nonsense is applied. The debts have to be paid by the private side and the bigger the government side, the smaller the private side in relation to the debt equation. Efforts to expand the government side only make the final proportion greater. Thus the debt to GDP ratio for all debt might have shrank since 2007, but the government side of the equation has increased. The actual debt has gotten larger most likely instead of smaller.

How big is the problem? I think it could be 2 years income. Being expanded credit increases GDP and aggregate demand, the effects of shrinking debt will be devastating on the economy. It will mostly shrink through loss and not repayment, which will wipe out the assets based on debt to a great extent. No one wants that, but that is where the financial structure of pigs has put us. It is what Bernanke is trying to make worse. It is what Obama is trying to make worse. It is the next bottle of scotch, the next shot of meth, the next fix of heroin to stave off the hangover, the crash and the sickness. There isn't a solution to this problem that is going to leave anyone intact. The ideas of how you increase investment when there isn't any final demand are worthless. The ideas to increase final demand when the solutions only make the problem worse are worthless. We live forever with the sledge hammer over our heads as long as this goes on. We are in a Japan situation on steroids.

There are going to have to be haircuts. The Greek situation proves how potent this mess is. As Karl says, the banks are all broke. They have to be broke because 50% of the debt in the system can't be sustained. The insurance companies are also broke. The pensions are broke. The private savings are broke at current price levels. The whole world is broke.

What fixed the Great Depression was a reorganization and time. We can't sustain the prices paid for anything and fix this. It is a mathematical joke to even propose the idea it can be done. We also can't go back to increasing debt by 10% a year after we fix this and have any kind of sustained economy. There has to be a debt destroying mechanism, whether it is periodic recessions, prohibitions, bankruptcy or what ever other kind of relief can be provided.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11
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DFW, Tx
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Flapping, the great secret is the bankers are liable for their loans. Deposits and capital are only the mirror reflection. That is save the cash they have.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Jonesapple10
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What a flawless example of the true BS in the banking industry! I can't imagine where BOA actually stands today. How many Countrywide Option ARMs did they absorb (which are 100% underwater)? How many equity lines that are worthless? This problem is across the board with banks. If the public knew the truth there would be an overnight collapse; Ben Berbankie knows it, President Obamass knows it, all the PTB that are making money hand over fist on this economic collapse know it and I'm SICK AND ****ING TIRED OF IT! smiley
Victorberry
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Bedford, TX
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Another example of left wing liberals being in agreement with Karl.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/09/09/e....

By the way, Mike Whitney was writing about the housing bubble and economic corruption back in 2006.
Diogenes
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Groningen, Netherlands
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More "confidence building" by the IMF:

IMF's Lagarde: report of $273.2 billion bank hole misleading.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that reports of a draft IMF document showing a $273.2 billlion shortfall in European banks' capital were misleading and the lender was still finalising its study.

"There has been misreporting about the 200 billion euros, this number is tentative," Lagarde told a news conference after G7 and G8 finance talks in the southern French city of Marseille.

"This is not a stress test that the IMF conducts nor is it the global capital need for European banking institutions, that it is not, and we are currently in discussions with our European partners to assess the global methodology until we reach a tentative draft. It will be published before the end of September."

SOURCE: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/1....

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The only price discovery that is happening in todays markets is the price wich a society pays when it allows its markets to be run by corrupt bankers.
Xqqme
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Ohio
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Mannfm11, great post!
Bozonian
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Saratoga Springs, New York
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There's a certain arrogance at play in Congress. Witness another upping of the borrowing limit by 500 billion overnight.

I suspect that campaign contributions are the least of the bribes and extortion that are in play.

Rule #1: When the government is involved, things are always much worse than they first appear.

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.

Smacktle
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Mannfm11 needs a donation bucket by his name.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Ponzi_unit
Posts: 8094
Incept: 2007-09-05
Gold

Online
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Mannfm11, re: "How big is the problem? I think it could be 2 years income."

Comstock Partners give a glimpse at those numbers:

Quote:


http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(41z2....

...We are convinced that, after the latest 100% rally since March of 2009, that this was the last time the public could be fooled again. And this time we are able to determine that consumers are saving more and consuming less; we believe this change in attitude will continue for a long period of time, creating severe headwinds against strong economic growth...

...The key 18 year bull market we experienced here in the U.S. ending in 2000 was driven by excesses in household debt. Although wage growth had flattened out, consumers wanted a larger home, a nicer car, and nicer clothes whether they could afford it or not. If they ran out of money with their credit cards and bank loans they would take out a second mortgage on their homes that they felt could never decline in value. Household savings rates, which usually averaged about 9%, fell to near zero. Household debt as a percentage of GDP generally averaged about 50% of GDP and 65% of personal disposable income (PDI). However, starting in the early 1980s (as the stock market started this amazing bull market run discussed earlier) household debt rose to 100% of GDP and 130% of PDI by 2008...

... The U.S. stock market will not be able to rise in a sustained manner if we are correct in believing that U.S. households will continue deleveraging for the next few years to as many as 10 more years. The key is that household debt will have to decline to the levels of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s of 50% of GDP and 65% of PDI. That would mean the weak consumption will continue and that should lead to disappointing economic growth. The average annual growth in consumption over the last 50 years was about 3.5%, but only 0.6% over the seven quarters since the recovery started. That is the lowest growth rate since the Great Depression...


I heard Suzi Orman on TV the other day and if I have the quote right, 'The American Dream is Dead'. The context of her statement was that using excessive credit to 'keep up with the neighbors' is done/over/no more.

The audience responded, you could almost hear them lose their breath as if they were suddenly hushed by a great warning - then total silence. Suzi went on to state 'Live in Your Truth'. That is, if you can't afford a vacation you don't take a vacation, etc.

Comstock continues in another article:

Quote:


http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(csxw....

...This bearishness is mostly due to the enormous debt built up over the last few decades (total debt-including private debt-- was $11 trillion in 1984 and grew by over $40 trillion to over $52 trillion today). Of that $40 trillion increase over 27 years, $26 trillion came in the last decade (see attached chart).

In fact, the eight years between 2000 and 2008 the debt grew from $26.5 trillion (265% of $10 tn GDP) to $54.5 trillion (or $28 trillion from 2000 to 2008)...

...The private sector debt that grew the most was the household debt, mostly because of the massive purchases of homes and goods imported largely from emerging economies. This sector of debt was historically about 50% of GDP and 65% of Disposable Personal Income, but by the mid 1980s it starting growing exponentially until it was in a full blown debt bubble. This sector debt rose from $6.5 trillion in 2000 to almost $15 trillion in 2008. This sector is presently deleveraging and is down to about $13 trillion on its way to below $10 trillion (in our opinion) as the deleveraging continues to take a toll on the U.S. (as well as the global economy, since the rest of the world needs U.S. consumption)...


And the most recent Comstock report:

Quote:


http://www.comstockfunds.com/(X(1)S(bq5g....

...To put some numbers on this debt, if housing prices would have just appreciated with the inflation rate from 2003 to 2007, the total debt from household mortgages would have been about $5.5 trillion. However, since the Administration, Congress, Wall Street-- banks, and the rating agencies made sure that anyone that wanted to have a home, whether they could afford it or not, got the "American Dream," the total household mortgage debt is presently about $10 trillion. This extra $4.5 trillion of household mortgage debt is a terrible burden on the economy since consumers make up over 70% of our economy...

...This is why consumer spending has been so tepid over the past few years as can be seen in the chart ( credit to NDR-Ned Davis Research two charts) on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) during recoveries. U.S. consumers spent well beyond their means for decades and now that they are so overleveraged their PCE will stay constrained for years. The consumer spending didn't seem too onerous over the past few years until the Commerce Department lowered their earlier estimates significantly (see attachments). Also, consumer confidence by any measure you chose is signaling another recession (see attachment-credit to NDR), and any cuts in federal or state government spending could only exacerbate that...

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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.

Ponzi_unit
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Boz, I feel like Congress is trapped by their own previous voting record.

How can Congress vote NO on stimulus targeted towards individuals after all the corporate stimulus that has been wasted? How can they blatantly vote YES for the bank bailouts but NO for people bailouts without riots in the street.

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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.

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