Where's The Confidence?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-09-09 15:43
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Where's The Confidence?
 

That's all I hear today in the media - that the market has lost confidence.

Yep.

Why have people lost confidence?  Was it an accident?  NO.

Was it an intentional act?  Yes.

Who's responsible?  That's easy.

  • Congress.  We know why the meltdown happened in 2008.  Financial institutions sold crap to people claiming it was "Grade AAA" chocolate.  It was, well, crap and this was discovered when the first bite was taken.  There has been no penalty assessed for doing this.

  • The Banks.  They repeatedly said "we're well-capitalized" and then blew up.  Bear and Lehman among them.  There was no penalty assessed for doing this.

  • The President.  He said he didn't come to Washington to protect the banksters.  Then he did exactly that.  In short, he lied.  Even after we discovered over a hundred thousand perjured documents filed in foreclosure cases, there was no criminal penalty assessed for doing this.

  • The President (again).  He said he'd cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term.  Instead he more than doubled it and last night put forward a demand for yet more unpaid-for spending that will guarantee more than a trillion in deficits on a forward basis, along with essentially defunding Social Security and Medicare taxes while both programs are deeply in the red.  In short he's driving the nation straight toward ruin exactly like a junkie demands more and more drugs even though he's aware that if he continues he will certainly die.

  • Ben BernankeHe's been wrong about virtually every prognostication he has ever made about the economy, going back to 2006.  He also lied when he told Congress that "The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt", just months before doing exactly that.  There has been no penalty assessed for doing this.

  • Wall Street itself.  HFT abuse is the stuff legends are made of.  It's a true outrage, really.  The bid and offer manipulation on a daily basis is chronicled by Nanex; I've also written about it repeatedly.  Market manipulation is illegal.  There has been no penalty assessed for doing this.

  • The Banks (again) are lying about their balance sheets.  We know this is a fact because in virtually every case where the FDIC has taken over a bank, from big to small, it has resulted in monstrous losses against claimed "asset values" on the balance sheet, sometimes on values claimed just weeks before in public filings.  There has been no penalty assessed for doing this.

  • Case-Schiller and Zillow both claim $9 trillion in residential property value losses. The Fed claims $500 billion, approximately, in decreased mortgage debt.  The rest cannot be found; the presumption must be that the banks are hiding trillions in bad paper in mortgages alone!  Is there another explanation?  Not really.  Sure, some of this loss is equity, but not $8.5 trillion out of $9 trillion.  There has been no penalty assessed for doing this.

  • Federal Regulators.  They got caught allowing IndyMac to backdate deposits.  The really ugly part of it is that the same people were involved in that as were involved in the same offense during the S&L crisis!   The OCC sued to block state-level predatory lending statutes that would have largely cut off the housing bubble.  That's not idiocy, it's rank corruption.

So on what basis should we expect "confidence" in the markets, especially when the markets all clear those those very same banks that pulled the scams, appear to be still pulling the scams, and the governments and regulators are still enabling the scams while the market has every reason to believe that the scam won't hold up and it will all fly apart on the back of Greece defaulting?

There's your answer.

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User Info Where's The Confidence? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Penguinzee
Posts: 225
Incept: 2010-06-13

Tampa Bay, FL
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Is this the weekend that everything blows up? Dunno, but a terrorist act (I should say financial terrorist) is most certain to happen this weekend...

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Crime is far too lucrative a game to let the little people play.-popofthebright
Eaglewwit
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Banned
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Just BTFD smiley
Digitlman
Posts: 335
Incept: 2011-03-04


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I hope so, Penguinzee.

I'm getting tired of the "it's over" coming over and over. It never happens, because somebody, usually a gov't or central bank, steps in to prop something up (again).

Let's do this. Big reset®.

I'm ready.
Gamma
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Gold
Northern CA
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The only thing keeping people in anything is the thought that perhaps they, too, can be the massive, yet unprosecuted beneficiaries of some kind of fraud yet undiscerned or unspecified. Fraud as a business model has de facto triumphed. Its pervasiveness throughout our financial system is largely complete. We buy stocks when we see insider buying to ride on their coattails. We attempt to follow the trends created by the footprints of the large institutions that supposedly underpin our system. There's nothing that has changed about that.

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This stuff we're going through, this is nothing compared to the Middle Ages.
They told me if I voted for John McCain, an idiot would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Sure enough...
Imustbenutz
Posts: 283
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Absurdistan, USSA
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To what degree can the global dilemma of corruption and collusion between governments and banksters be blamed on the death of investigative journalism?

Seems to me that the last breaking story of any significance here in the US was Watergate....what has happened to investigative journalism since then?

I surmise that reality TV took the place of old school journalism, and we have suffered as a result.

Go long torches and pitchforks!
Wineaux
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Incept: 2009-03-23
Green A True American Patriot!
pure Liquid pleasure
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Quote:
The President (again). He said he'd cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term. Instead he more than doubled it and last night put forward a demand for yet more unpaid-for spending that will guarantee more than a trillion in deficits on a forward basis


Where the **** are the futher downgrades from the rating agencies both here and abroad?

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What wine goes with unemployment?
Wineaux
Posts: 533
Incept: 2009-03-23
Green A True American Patriot!
pure Liquid pleasure
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Quote:
Congress

Quote:
The Banks

Quote:
The President

Quote:
Ben Bernanke

Quote:
Federal Regulators

May all of these cockroaches, liars, and sycophants ROT IN HELL!!

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What wine goes with unemployment?
Jstanley01
Posts: 8182
Incept: 2008-07-30
Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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Well it's never pretty, but civilizations have to go obsolete sometime or another.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Raxon
Posts: 69
Incept: 2011-08-23

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Long time reader, first time poster obviously.

I'm fairly young (34) but have educated myself on these issues, most especially from reading this blog (so thanks for that Karl.)

All I can say is there will be a time in the future when my generation is in power and those who perpetrated this fraud will be old and frail. I cannot speak for others in my generation but I intend to show them no quarter and they will regret their malfeasance.

Thus my primary hope to solve these problems and find justice is time and the fact that people grow old, weak, and then die. I don't think things can be changed otherwise.

Reason: Missing a word
Widgeon
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Quote:
what has happened to investigative journalism since then?



Taken over by the mega-corporations. All serve the same master. If you don't play their game your career will ended. They will see to it.




Widgeon
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Raxon,

I strongly counsel that there is an entire new cadre of young Oligarchs in your age group being groomed for exactly the service the Bernanke, Paulson, Owebama, et al.'s of the world are currently providing. They will protect their old Masters when the time comes.

Etz
Posts: 13890
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Silver
LA
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This is all I have to say about putting my hard earned dollars in the fraud they call the stock market:

[****_you]

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Raxon
Posts: 69
Incept: 2011-08-23

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Widgeon,

Oh I don't doubt it, fortunately I like to think I'm as cunning as they are and can help undo their plans. Yet it may be a pipe dream, or I'll become that which I hate and join their club.
Xanares
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Goldbrick
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Indiana
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^^Awesome chart.

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"The higher I go, the crookeder it gets."
--Michael Corleone

"Instead of cursing the darkness, light a CONgressman."
Swrichmond
Posts: 327
Incept: 2009-02-12
A True American Patriot!
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We're all hearing the term "recapitalize" more and more often, as if there were any more real "capital" to use for such.

Additional terms we can expect to start hearing more of:
Bad Bank
Receivership
Nationalize
Ring Fence
Firewall

Sh*tf***


Words we can be guaranteed NOT to hear ever again w.r.t. finance:
Investigation
Prosecution
Conviction
Sentencing
Claw Back

Geoffreyt
Posts: 2
Incept: 2011-08-18

east tennessee
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I have been reading the Market-Ticker for two years or so. No one with half a wit can much dissagree with you. I would like to see a lot of change and justice too. Justice will take some time...My focus though is survival. I study the equities market. I would like to see you do a piece that you tell what conditions you think will usher in the Secular Bull market and what time frame you have in mind. Thank you for your blog. I love it.
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Confidence?

There's tons of confidence out there...

confident that we've been screwed,
that we are still getting screwed,
that in the future the politician/bankers are going to screw us some more and not even give us a reach-around.

That's the "trouble" enough people have wised up to the fact that our government is allowing us to get screwed daily and has no plans or desire to stop it.

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Lowbeyond
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Green A True American Patriot!
CO aka West NJ/East CA
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Swrichmond wrote..
We're all hearing the term "recapitalize" more and more often, as if there were any more real "capital" to use for such.

Additional terms we can expect to start hearing more of:
Bad Bank
Receivership
Nationalize
Ring Fence
Firewall

This is all code for: We are going to Steal.Your.Property and give it to our buddies. Suck it down bitches and don't for get to Vote for us !

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Maybe it was a birdy bread-bomber from the future?!
Moshe
Posts: 50
Incept: 2011-05-12

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There's no confidence because of crap like this:

Senate Approves $500 Billion Increase in Borrowing Authority

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/09/08....
Duc888
Posts: 7368
Incept: 2008-11-06
Gold
CT, the UNconstitution State
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I'm getting a SERIOUS vibe....that we're in for a replay of fall 2008 again. People are tightening up the purse strings in a very real and measurable way.

Again.

We're in for a ****ing bone crushing fall / winter.

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...burp
Nanna
Posts: 5662
Incept: 2008-01-20
Gold
NY State
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TMI

(Too Much Information)

The amount and speed of thought as disseminated in our multiple means of communication has made a more chaotic model (as opposed to a more linear model) the norm.

"Confidence" might be an artifact of linear thinking which has been made redundant.

Put another way, confidence in what?

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"There are fluctuations in the market that don't mean anything."Ira Gluskin, February 14, 2012
Morla
Posts: 817
Incept: 2009-11-09
Green
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Great Ticker, Karl! I love how succinct this one is, no nits to pick for those living on a diet of unicorn feces.

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Fear of govt IS the government.. Statism is a pack of unbacked threats; If govt gets out of control, ignore it and go about life as you see fit. Where's your crown, King Nothing?
Dazedncornfused
Posts: 313
Incept: 2010-10-13
Green
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Ya know Karl, I read your stuff and compare it to reasoned voices and think you're just being hysterical and silly, especially about Bank of America. I mean, do you wear as nice a suit as my retirement advisor?

Then I stumble upon this:
>BofA had earlier planned to cut 3,500 jobs, its Chief Executive Brian Moynihan had said in a memo to staff on August 18, as it tries to come to grips with $1 trillion of problem home mortgages.<
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BofA-discu....

Really, one stinking bank has a honking TRILLION in worrisome debt. How on God's green earth do you trash a trillion? Instead of layoffs of 3k, it's talking about dumping a seventh of more than a quarter million paychecks.

Ah, I've gone to liquid MM in Treasuries, the kooks who talk about stuffing sawbucks into wet mattresses are starting to seem intelligent. Lord help our children if it comes to that.

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Stand up and be counted or line up and be numbered.
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